04-30-26 spal
Lugarno story:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_oJXKP7KYw&t=113s |
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04-30-26 spal
| Pilly - have you heard of Lugarno Diamonds and Moti Ferder? Quite the story ... Ferder ended up ripping off the owner of Lugarno (Compass Diversified) via a so-called Investment Diamond scheme. Very ruthless and tricky industry as you know. |
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04-29-26 victor
:-))
Jerome “Too Late” Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can’t get a job anywhere else — Nobody wants him. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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04-29-26 spal
The old in and out with Putas ...
;) |
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04-29-26 pillz
| closed my short puts VNQ after 2 months :-) |
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04-29-26 pillz
| closed my VLO putas after 2 days :-)) |
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04-29-26 panasonic
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04-29-26 spal
The environment for Baytex Energy (BTE) in late April 2026 is arguably the most favorable it has been since the company’s acquisition of Ranger Oil.
As a mid-cap producer with significant exposure to the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Duvernay/Peace River plays in Canada, Baytex is currently positioned to capture the massive "war premium" in oil prices while simultaneously benefiting from improved egress in Western Canada.
1. Macro Tailwinds: The $100+ Oil Reality
The primary driver for Baytex is the sustained high price of WTI, currently trading over $100/bbl due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the Hormuz blockade.
Cash Flow Inflection: At these price levels, Baytex is a "free cash flow machine." The company has successfully lowered its breakeven costs to roughly $45–$50/bbl. With oil at $100+, the delta is flowing directly toward debt reduction and shareholder returns.
The Eagle Ford Advantage: Roughly 60% of Baytex's production is now in the U.S. (Texas), which provides them with "premium" pricing (Light Louisiana Sweet or WTI-linked) and insulates them from the heavy-oil discounts often seen in Canadian production.
2. The "TMX" Catalyst: Narrowing Differentials
For the Canadian side of their business, the timing is perfect. The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline is now fully operational, which has structurally changed the economics for Canadian producers.
Western Canadian Select (WCS) Stability: The additional 590,000 bpd of export capacity to the West Coast has significantly narrowed the "WCS-WTI differential." Baytex is no longer seeing its Canadian heavy oil sold at a $20–$30 discount; the spread has tightened to the mid-teens, adding millions to their bottom line.
3. Operational Performance & Valuation
Baytex’s recent stock performance reflects a market that is finally re-rating the stock from a "debt-laden junior" to a "disciplined mid-cap."
Earnings Momentum: Following their late-February reporting, the stock has trended upward, currently trading near $4.00–$4.15 (CAD). While it is up roughly 23% over the past year, it still trades at a lower valuation multiple (EV/EBITDA) than many of its peers, suggesting there is still "valuation catch-up" to be played.
Shareholder Returns: In the current high-price environment, Baytex has committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders via buybacks and dividends once they hit their net debt targets. As of April 2026, they are rapidly approaching those targets.
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Have a position - stock currently sitting on highs. |
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04-29-26 carib
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04-29-26 spal
No TACOs on the menu ... only NACHOs.
Not A Chance Hormuz Opens ... |
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04-29-26 panasonic
Earnings report after hours of several of the Mag7.
AI at center stage, do or die for pana's calls. |
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04-29-26 spal
| CRS - Carpenter Tech ... orders are blowing out ... an increasingly higher demand market. |
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