10-26-26 victor
Flavio: 'Banned' from leaving Brazil
"I was served with an order to hand over my passports and I am also banned from leaving the country," he said in a video posted to Instagram. The son of jailed ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro, denounced "a clear attempt to intimidate me."
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10-26-26 victor
here it is.. according to dt, he didn't take sides. :-))
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Trump says Brazil election looked 'rigged' as Bolsonaro refuses to recognize Lula win
"I didn't take sides, but it looked like another rigged election," Trump told reporters, without providing any evidence. "It looked very bad to me."
"I just think it had a very bad look, the election, the way it was tabulated," Trump said. "The extension given was very strange."
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10-26-26 victor
| dt still hasn't said a word about brasil |
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10-26-26 carib
| Panas: I have a brazilian CPF, but I prefer to buy a CLN in US$ offshore. |
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10-26-26 carib
La administración estadounidense, liderada por Donald Trump, manifestó su respaldo a una hoja de ruta orientada a renovar los poderes públicos en Venezuela durante los próximos meses. El plan contempla la reestructuración del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (TSJ) y del Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) como paso previo para que Delcy Rodríguez declare la falta absoluta en la presidencia y se abra plazo de seis meses hacia la convocatoria de elecciones.
"Una vez que se establezcan esas dos cosas, el nuevo TSJ a finales de este año y el nuevo CNE poco después –trabajo que ya ha comenzado–, Rodríguez debería declarar la vacante permanente en la presidencia", precisó un alto funcionario del Departamento de Estado durante una rueda de prensa telefónica. |
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10-26-26 victor
:-))
Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez
🚨El engendro retorcido de Delcy Eloína no representa en lo absoluto a la Venezuela decente. Jamás y nunca.
Delcy es ejemplo de la mediocridad cutre, chusma y ladrona que caracteriza a esta dictadura.
Nadie la respeta y utiliza fondos públicos para mantener a sus chulos. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
| Carib, just checked and yes would need a Brazilian CPF to hold directly. |
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10-26-26 victor
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10-26-26 carib
Panas: there are trillions worth of local government bonds in BRL.
problem is you need a local bank account, or have a credit linked note manufactured for you, to buy it is US$. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
"I like our chances"
Kalshi is a POS outside US which makes sense, now we shall see if has some value inside US.
Not a believer in traditional polls anyway, so if Kalshi kicks them out of biz, I'm more than ok. |
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10-26-26 carib
Victor: no such risk. Lula turns 81 tomorrow, and has no right to stand again, even in case he wanted to do such an irrational thing. In case Lula dies or resigns, he would be replaced by the vp, Alkmin, who is the former moderate governor of sao paulo state.
The risk is that Brasil becomes more ungovernable given both houses of congress are controlled by the right wing parties, public debt is high and growing and the interest rates make it unsustainable. The private sector life is also made difficult by the excessively high interest rates.
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10-26-26 spal
"I am not in danger, Skyler. I am the danger. A guy opens his door and gets shot, and you think that of me? No. I am the one who knocks!"
Our moto. |
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10-26-26 spal
| Panas - it is the two of us against the Kalshi Army and the algos ... I like our chances. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
"I have bought the dip hard"
same here |
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10-26-26 spal
why is the brasil market so spooked?
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Fundamental it is not and most of this will bounce back. It reflects mostly retail meme trading (bolsonaro an apparent capitalist and so good, Lula a socialist ergo bad) and is reinforced by trend following algos.
I have bought the dip hard. |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, so lula has to leave, and cannot run again next cycle?
//
Not a Lifetime Ban: The two-term limit applies only to consecutive service. A former president who has served two consecutive terms can run for the presidency again after sitting out at least one full presidential term (or after at least one term has elapsed).
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10-26-26 victor
carib, what is the risk? why is the brasil market so spooked?
that lula attempts to entrench himself in power, and tries to become another maduro or fidel?
can lula run for office again in 4 years?
are there no term limits in brasil for president?
he's beeen president 4 times?
he's 80, so he'll be 84 next presidential election. |
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10-26-26 spal
"Lula’s Army" (Exército do Lula) was a massive, centralized WhatsApp broadcasting network engineered by Federal Deputy André Janones for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 2022 Brazilian presidential campaign. Leveraging WhatsApp’s position as Brazil's dominant communication tool, the operation aggregated over 10 million subscribers into a direct pipeline. Campaign operatives distributed ready-to-share videos, infographics, debunking materials, and digital stickers to core supporters, who then re-shared them into millions of personal family, workplace, and community chat groups.
Significance:
Neutralized Asymmetric Digital Dominance: Historically, Jair Bolsonaro’s conservative movement dominated encrypted peer-to-peer messaging. "Lula’s Army" constructed the political Left’s first equivalent digital infrastructure, dismantling the opposition’s structural online advantage.
Direct, Unfiltered Voter Mobilization: Bypassing traditional media filters and social media algorithms, the platform enabled instant counter-messaging and crucial election-day Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) logistics, such as distributing free transit guides to reduce working-class voter abstention.
Decisive Force Multiplier: In a presidential race decided by under two percentage points (~1.8%), the capacity to rapidly deploy campaign narratives directly to millions of active citizen amplifiers served as a vital strategic asset, proving that organized micro-distribution via chat applications can decisively tilt modern elections. |
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10-26-26 pillz
| After the surprising re-election of left-wing President Lula, the Brazilian stock market is getting a historic bolwashing. In Brussels, the 'Brazil share' AB InBev is taking a hit. |
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10-26-26 spal
| Lula's Army WhatsApp channel ... this became a thing in the election and may have swung it. |
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10-26-26 spal
https://x.com/Alex__1789/status/2114725881964908943?s=20
Below comment was from this guy (whom I follow on X). Iconoclastic thinker. Brazilian. |
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10-26-26 spal
Lula increased his vote by 10.3m: similar to the number of people in the Lula's Army WhatsApp channel; & more than the defeated 3rd-party candidates combined.
Where did the votes come from?
Abstention fell from a record high 21%, to 19%, the lowest in 20 years. Blank votes also fell from 6m to 4m. |
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10-26-26 pillz
| it is long time ago, it represents about 1k/once |
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10-26-26 pillz
| now it represents about 10% of my portfolio |
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10-26-26 pillz
have many heavy gold bars in a vault, I guess.
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I have |
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10-26-26 spal
Real dropping sharply, seems to be a good moment to jump in.
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Yes likely oversold and will bounce ... but make sure you take profits. |
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10-26-26 spal
spal, he will supposedly lose the ohio election..
but dt keeps supporting him.
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Grifters United ... yes Vic this is pretty obvious to both of us. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
Carib, Real dropping sharply, seems to be a good moment to jump in.
Which local bond has good liquidity? |
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10-26-26 carib
Brasil 10Y local currency bond yielding 15,7%. any takers?
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10-26-26 victor
spal, he will supposedly lose the ohio election..
but dt keeps supporting him.
Oct. 23, 2026
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Trump doubles down on defending Vivek Ramaswamy’s attack ad against Amy Acton
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10-26-26 panasonic
"Colores Rescue Submarine"
:-)) swimming is cheaper. |
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10-26-26 spal
Vivek Ramaswamy
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What a grifter. |
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10-26-26 spal
| Perhaps we should pool some funds for a Colores Rescue Submarine? |
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10-26-26 victor
pana.. meltdown would be 15k bitcoin, like last time.
btw:
Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive bought $511 Million worth of Bitcoin.
They now hold 43,000 BTC worth $3.45 Billion. |
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10-26-26 spal
| Concerning schwimming - this then puts comrade Pilly in a favored position to survive the coming doom scenario. |
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10-26-26 spal
a 20 US$ in a plastic bag in his underwear
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So there we have it.
Plastic bag pouch in your underwear and swimming lessons ... we colores are now all set to fight off communist repression.
;) |
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10-26-26 spal
BBB
Brazilian Bolsonaro Blues today.
What a pathetic market.
LOL |
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10-26-26 carib
A friend of my late uncle swam to Hong Kong from mainland China after the communists took power, with a 20 US$ in a plastic bag in his underwear as is only possession.
He died a dollar billionaire early in the XXI century. |
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10-26-26 spal
using house money after selling puts.
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Bravo
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10-26-26 panasonic
| BTC back to meltdown mode. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
| Playing a bounce of EWZ via calls, using house money after selling puts. |
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10-26-26 spal
BORR c.12% down
PBR c.16% down
Gently buying |
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10-26-26 spal
| PBR ... sold down as Bolsonaro hype faded ... I think it is currently oversold. |
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10-26-26 spal
Fully Insured Replacement Value: Modern jack-up rigs carry comprehensive Hull & Machinery (H&M) insurance policies. The insured value collected from underwriters will insulate Borr’s balance sheet from direct capital destruction, offsetting the physical loss of the hull.
Limited Earnings Impact: The Prospector 5 represents 1 out of Borr’s ~24 high-spec premium jack-up rigs (~4% of active fleet capacity). While losing its dayrate on the Dussafu Marin contract for BW Energy temporary pares back near-term revenue, the remaining ~96% of the fleet continues to operate under high global utilization.
Macro Tightness Intact: The underlying thesis for modern shallow-water rigs remains unchanged: tight global supply, minimal newbuild additions, low breakeven extraction costs for operators, and sustained demand across West Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. |
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10-26-26 spal
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10-26-26 spal
BORR might be a bounce play today - impulse is down due to the sinking of a rig of Gabon on the w/end.
Trøim (founder) has been aggressively accumulating shares in the open market throughout August, September, and October 2026 via his indirect holding entity, Drew Holdings Ltd. / Drew Trust (a non-discretionary trust vehicle of which he is the beneficiary).
Following these recent purchases, Trøim indirectly controls over 37.28 million common shares through Drew Holdings (a stake valued at ~$160+ million depending on daily market moves), alongside a smaller direct personal holding of 81,867 shares. |
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10-26-26 spal
| Further information is available from Captain Jack Schpal - Letters of Marque and Reprisal LLC. |
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10-26-26 spal
FYI Shipping:
Jurisdictional Mobility: Unlike fixed land or real estate, a vessel is a mobile asset. If a sovereign state attempts arbitrary confiscation, local political instability flares, or a host government falls, a ship can simply sail into international waters or be redirected to a safe foreign port.
Admiralty Law & Flags of Convenience: Ships operate under international maritime law (admiralty law) and can be registered under foreign flags of convenience (such as Liberia or Panama) or corporate entities established in neutral jurisdictions (like Bermuda or the Cayman Islands). This effectively insulates the legal title of the asset from the direct statutory jurisdiction of any single domestic land tribunal or revolutionary state.
Hard Currency Earnings: International shipping generated revenue in US Dollars rather than unstable local currencies subject to capital controls or hyperinflation, allowing them to reinvest freely on a global scale. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
| S-1 filed for Anthropic, will trade under ticker ANT. |
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10-26-26 spal
Best example I have is when the Communists came to mainland China plurocats like C.Y. Tung and Y.K. Pao moved assets out of domestically tied assets and operations like RE, factories etc and into shipping.
C.Y. Tung (Tung Chao-yung): Originating from Shanghai, Tung built Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL). He famously moved his operations out of mainland China to Taiwan and Hong Kong ahead of political shifts, diversifying into a massive global fleet (including purchasing the ocean liner RMS Queen Elizabeth). His family held deep ties in both Hong Kong and Taiwan (his son, Tung Chee-hwa, eventually became Hong Kong’s first Chief Executive post-handover).
Sir Y.K. Pao (Yue-kong Pao): Pao fled Shanghai for Hong Kong in 1949 as the Communist forces advanced. Fearing that real estate in Hong Kong might eventually be seized or nationalized by Beijing if the territory were invaded, he deliberately chose not to put his capital back into property initially. Instead, he bought his first ship in 1955 and built World-Wide Shipping, which grew into the world's largest privately-owned shipping fleet. Decades later, once maritime assets had secured his wealth globally, he leveraged his shipping empire to pivot back into land, famously acquiring Hong Kong real estate giants like The Wharf and Harbour City.
This kind of thing is actually how the real capitalists work as distinct from those scurrying around with bars of gold.
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10-26-26 panasonic
| Ultra wealthy families that I know have also a nice collection of art, collectibles, jewelry besides gold, probably certificates of golds backed by physical in bank vaults (same bank but not their vault), for liquidity purposes. |
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10-26-26 carib
but Savo has a point. a number of large clients of my bank keep a large vault with physical gold bars representing a given % of their assets. Kept the very same bars there for half a century, or longer.
But what % of your assets, Savo, do you keep in gold bars? |
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10-26-26 carib
| Savo: we, colores, have capital. but not many of us have many heavy gold bars in a vault, I guess. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
| On Gold me on the same page as Carib. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
| Carib, at the open I will sell puts and buy calls right away, this is way overdone. |
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10-26-26 savo
| carib.. the location of the contracts is US and UK... exactly the locations wealthy family offices do not want. |
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10-26-26 savo
the point is that momentum traders trade futures and options like MMA in cage... they have their own stock and kick and hit each other against oil.. crack spread... interest rates... wars etc...
Wealthy family offices just buy physical gold and store it out of reach from "democratic" government prone to confiscation..irrespective of the cost of capital... capital is what they have.. protecting said capital is what they want. |
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10-26-26 carib
Savo: it will be, I suppose, the spot price in the location determined by contract.
How many gold bars do you already own in a vault, in practice? |
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10-26-26 savo
I guess their future value will depend from the spot price
carib...
and what will that spot price be?
if they need to resort to cash settlement prices will be all over the place...
as I write gold in shangai trade similar to the west... but silver trade 13% higher..
https://metalcharts.org/shanghai |
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10-26-26 carib
The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF is down 27% premarket, on track for the largest decline in its 26-year history.
U.S.-listed shares of XP, a Brazilian financial services company, are down more than 40% premarket, also on track for a record daily loss.
State oil firm Petrobras's American depositary receipts are down 25% in early trading, which would mark their second-worst day on record.
MercadoLibre, the Latin American e-commerce and payments company, fell more than 10% premarket, making it the biggest premarket decliner in the Nasdaq-100 index. Ambev, a Brazilian beer company and subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch, lost 10% in early trading. |
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10-26-26 carib
| Panas: question is.. at what price is BRL a buy? |
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10-26-26 carib
| Savo: if you buy GLD calls, I guess their future value will depend from the spot price. If you just want to hold a gold bar, just buy one and put in the safe deposit box of your swiss bank, taking good insurance.But that has a high capital cost. |
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10-26-26 panasonic
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10-26-26 panasonic
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10-26-26 panasonic
| Vic, when I see Sanchez dancing a lot in stage, get bit more optimistic :-) |
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10-26-26 savo
Or am I mistaken?
carib..if they force majeure a cash settlement it will not be at the prevailing price for physical gold stored in safe locations...
The reason for a cash settlement will be that reserves at the exchange are below minimums
So who knows what that price will be.
PS: I do not expect a financial Armageddon... I simply expect a financial crisis with higher inflation for longer... as there is too much debt.. too much deficits... to little willingness to correct the imbalances cutting spending and too much underwater debt sitting at US and European banks.
Central banks will continue repressing rates to kick the can forward... which will add to the fire.
Nothing new under the sun. |
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10-26-26 victor
pana, another one who just resigned..
because sanchez took him out of the psoe list of candidates.
and not just anyone.
DELEGADO DEL GOBIERNO EN MADRID.. pana.
sanchez = totally ruthless.
he demands 100% loyalty to him, not to the psoe.
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El delegado del Gobierno en la Comunidad de Madrid, Francisco Martín Aguirre, ha presentado su dimisión este domingo tras quedarse fuera de las listas del PSOE al Congreso y al Senado para las elecciones del próximo 29 de noviembre, según ha adelantado 'El Pais' |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, jaime bayly's opinion, posted before lula's victory:
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Bayly cree que si Flavio pierde será por el golpe bajo canallesco y ruin que le dio a Lula en el debate llamándolo “nueve dedos” |
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10-26-26 victor
Comando ConVzla
15m
#Caracas, nos vemos en minutos!
Estamos en Maitana, rumbo a la Valle-Coche a encontrarnos con nuestra gente |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, and the jair negative effect on flavio?
being the son of jair can be negative..
same for keiko, being the daughter of el chino..
she won but only on her FOURTH attempt, and it was by a nose. |
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10-26-26 victor
El senador republicano Rick Scott jugó un papel decisivo en el regreso de María Corina Machado con llamadas al presidente Donald Trump
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10-26-26 spal
| A right-leaning legislature and a familiar, centrist-anchored executive - forcing Lula to govern moderately and seek compromise. |
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10-26-26 carib
| The outcome was determined by voters who abstained in the first round, and opted for the lesser evil in the run-up. |
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10-26-26 carib
| My reading: Brasil voted to the right (check Senate new composition).. but got cold feet when faced with a candidate without any significant experience, no clear qualities.. and unsavoury bedfellows. Trump support was a death kiss for Flavio. Brasileiros opted for balance of powers. Hope the choice proves wise. |
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10-26-26 carib
Practical questions: BOVESPA and BRL levels in a few hours?
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10-26-26 spal
| So much for the wisdom of markets ... |
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10-26-26 spal
How the Pollsters Performed
While major polling firms faced criticism for underestimating conservative turnout in the first round, their runoff modeling performed much better than the prediction market odds:
Statistical Toss-Up Modeling: Major Brazilian polling firms—including Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Gerp—consistently reported a neck-and-neck, statistical tie (generally showing 50–50 or tight 51–49 splits within their margins of error).
The Final Outcome: Rather than the blowout indicated by prediction market odds, the election ended in a tight finish. According to official electoral authority results reported by Al Jazeera and The Washington Post, Lula secured reelection with 51.75% of the vote compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.25%.
By framing the runoff as an unpredictable, high-volatility toss-up rather than a near-certainty for Bolsonaro, traditional pollsters provided a much more accurate picture of the final outcome than the prediction markets. |
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10-26-26 carib
Savo: if you expect financial armageddon coming soon.. you have a point.
Otherwise, if the US$ remains a convertible currency, and my (hypothetical) Gold futures get settled in US$ after GLD prices shoots up (hypothetically).. I can exchange US$ in HK$, or CHF.. and buy bullion in CHF or Singapore..
Or am I mistaken?
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10-26-26 spal
The Prediction Markets' Heavy Miss
Following the first round of voting—where Senator Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—prediction markets swung heavily toward a Bolsonaro victory:
Kalshi & Polymarket: In the weeks leading into the runoff, major platforms like Kalshi gave Flávio Bolsonaro up to an 88% probability of winning, while Polymarket priced his victory odds around 86%.
Betting Odds: On the eve of the runoff, sportsbooks and betting exchanges had Lula listed as a long underdog (paying out as high as 5.50-to-1).
The markets essentially treated Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round momentum as a decisive trend, creating an overconfident consensus that proved wrong when the final votes were tallied.
LMAO |
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10-26-26 carib
Victor: 99% is not 100%.
Personally, I am very ok with the outcome.
Right wing parliament, left wing President..
;~) |
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10-26-26 spal
Schpal would like to extend warm congratulations to comrade Lula - Viva Brazil and Viva Bahia.
Lula’s win does not alter Alvopetro’s fundamental investment thesis: a high-margin, low-cost onshore natural gas producer generating strong free cash flow and paying a sustainable dividend backed by a firm state-level off-take contract.
Alvopetro’s sole off-taker, Bahiagás, is owned by the state government of Bahia—which has been continuously governed by Lula’s Workers' Party (PT) for nearly 20 years—ensuring strong local political alignment and off-take reliability.
The administration's federal policy prioritizes expanding domestic natural gas supply to fuel local re-industrialization and fertilizer production in the Northeast, directly supporting Alvopetro's core market.
Petrobras's pause on onshore asset divestments limits new large-scale competitors from rapidly entering the Recôncavo Basin, protecting Alvopetro's established regional market share.
Because 100% of Alvopetro's natural gas is consumed domestically within Brazil, the company is completely insulated from federal crude oil export taxes and trade restrictions.
The long-term Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with Bahiagás is contractually indexed to international commodity benchmarks and inflation, safeguarding profit margins against domestic fiscal or currency shifts.
Viva Lula |
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10-26-26 spal
Or perhaps:
"In politics, death is never final."
— François Mitterrand |
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10-26-26 spal
"A week is a long time in politics."
Harold Wilson |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, what happened to your forecast in brasil?
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10-05-26 carib
Brasil turned clearly to the right. Lula is 99% over.
Question is: what will Bolsonaro jr fiscal policy be? |
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10-26-26 spal
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Board
