05-21-26 savo
victor... 20% or more of people under big risk of entering poverty, etc.
the result of socialism, net zero, QE, Zirp, high taxes, etc...
the west is doomed.
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05-21-26 savo
carib... Pensioners pay only 7% on all foreign income.
all meaning pension income and financial income?
what about cap gains?... zero?
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05-21-26 victor
carib, you can argue the same about spain: old people, cheapo salaries, people leaving for better jobs in other countries, etc.
there was a statistic of cat, which i recently read which was like 20% or more of people under big risk of entering poverty, etc.
something really bad re risk of poverty.
and spanish hacienda treats people HORRIBLY.
the shakira proves it. |
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05-21-26 carib
Victor: fact is italy's brain drain continues and accelerates: salaries are too low for graduates, and careers are too slow.
Italy is a declining gerontocracy.. with residual elements of "dolce vita" and many beautiful spots. |
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05-21-26 carib
May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), opens new tab is in talks to acquire rights to produce oil in Venezuela nearly two decades after it was effectively expelled from the country, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The deal, which could be finalized and announced as soon as this month, would involve Exxon signing contracts to produce oil in up to six fields in several regions in Venezuela, the report added. |
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05-21-26 victor
carib, imagine that.
pana, see.. that's my point. |
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05-21-26 carib
Italy introduced a non-dom tax regime already in 2017.
Now they have a slate of different tax incentives for impatriates.
Qualified impatriates only hay half of income tax on salary.
Pensioners pay only 7% on all foreign income.
etc etc |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, since 2023, i have been asking similar questions to other people, and i have not been able to get a compelling answer. something that would explain why.
i just observe that spain started to decouple from europe since putin invaded ukr.. as if it was good for spain relative to others. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, spain doesn't have golden visa any longer.
sanchez eliminated it a year ago.
but the country is still doing better than expected.
Spain's Golden Visa program officially ended on April 3, 2025. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, "Tourism in Italy accounts for approximately 13% of the national GDP."
similar to spain..
how do you explain the difference in growth between spain and italy?
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Italy now is trying to enter the same game, they recently approved the golden visa. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Similar effect happened in Portugal, maybe Carib can describe a bit how it was there. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
Vic, as posted here, I spend a good time of the day trading, US markets close at 9 or 10pm Spain's time, I can go to any bar or restaurant (nothing fancy) and is packed with people.
In some EU countries I will be lucky if find a food truck serving pizza :-) |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, why so low?
Italy's GDP growth for 2024 is projected to be 0.7% |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, if that theory is right, then why so low?
France's GDP growth for 2024 is projected to be 1.1%. |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, if so, then why not france or italy? |
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Rajo? He left in 2018...remote working, yolo, to tha moon, all that is a post-covid phenomenon. |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, if that's true, why didn't tourism didn't have the same effect with rajoy? |
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05-21-26 panasonic
Vic, old discussion, when tourism blossoms it brings a lot of other industries to work, real estate, construction materials and equipment, restaurants, food supply, shopping, furniture, kitchens, appliances, telecom, it's a real boom.
I'm going to Spain 2 or 3 times a year since a long time, the remote worker effect, and all tech changed the landscape in Spain in few years.
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05-21-26 victor
pana, i have no idea if this is accurate, but even if it is.. it is NOT due to tourism.
i was just now reading that tourism is apparently lower than 16%.
//
🛬 Europe’s Most Visited Countries in 2025 (millions of tourists):
1. 🇪🇸 Spain: 330M
2. 🇮🇹 Italy: 265M
3. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: 155M
4. 🇫🇷 France: 151M
5. 🇬🇧 UK: 150M
https://x.com/Civixplorer/status/2056313154938785915
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05-21-26 victor
pana, that's not it. ive told you this before, tourism is much lower % of gdp than people assume.
only 16% of gdp. that is not it. |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, they used to call spain "the sick man of europe" |
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05-21-26 panasonic
"why wasn't it true with aznar, rajoy, gonzalez or zp ??"
Short answer AirBnB |
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05-21-26 panasonic
Exactly Vic, without Maduro now I care less.
Maybe down the road I would root for a Gov. that will kick chavistas out of Salamanca, but most probably not in my lifetime. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, it was me that told you Spanish economy will do great independently of any political mess, remember?
//
btw, i find such statements to be flawed.
if this is true, then why wasn't it true before sanchez?
why wasn't it true with aznar, rajoy, gonzalez or zp ??
|
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05-21-26 victor
pana, why you are under the impression that I care abt. who wins in Spain.
//
i am not, especially now that nm has been removed. |
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05-21-26 carib
| I owe Savo a dinner + transportation if PDVsa bonds go to 100.. |
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05-21-26 carib
| Panas: you mean 2024 or 2004? |
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05-21-26 panasonic
"Ships trapped in the Gulf are accumulating"
Pdvsa bonds should be trading above 100% already. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
"just ruminating"
Vic, certainly!
I back my two posts, 1) ZP and Sanchez same policies.
2) Aznar sending few soldiers on tourist tour to Iraq in March 2023 was not the cause of his defeat in 2024.
Last Q: why you are under the impression that I care abt. who wins in Spain? |
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05-21-26 carib
Ships trapped in the Gulf are accumulating barnacles, algae and jellyfish as the Middle East conflict drags on and temperatures begin to rise, impeding their ability to eventually exit the region.
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05-21-26 carib
PS: you pay US$ and get paid in US$, at the market FX rate.
securities held offshore. |
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05-21-26 carib
The BRL remains always an interesting long term alternative, in particular if you have interests in brasil.
Currently, you can get 10Y securities paying 8,2%+ IPCA (consumer inflation rate).
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05-21-26 carib
Savo: we have money, and we have to decide in which instruments and jurisdictions to allocate it.
If you dump all dollar denominated securities, you have to buy something else. 100% gold bullion?
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05-21-26 savo
the thing carib is that i do not think there is any endemic capital flight from china...money goes in for real investments..... money goes out for financial investments...
in the US money does not go in for real investments... but money goes in for financial investment...hence no growth... and a bloated budget deficit.
It is sad to see the GOP turned into another democratic party...
in fact now they have the DemoCrats and the DemoCans. |
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05-21-26 carib
| I would be glad to invest in chinese growth, if I understood how. |
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05-21-26 savo
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05-21-26 carib
Savo: I am aware.
What % of your estate is invested in China (or chinese RMB)? |
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05-21-26 spal
| Savo on the dollar I will clearly agree with a more subtle interpretation. |
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05-21-26 savo
carib.. China's economy exploding to the upside...
China's Q1 foreign trade rose 15% to 11.84 trillion yuan (US$1.73 trillion), a record for the period. Exports grew 11.9% and imports 19.6%
meanwhile in the US.. the swamp getting deeper... |
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05-21-26 spal
| Those Iranians that you are talking to … are they in the room with us? |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, also, what i remember mentioning is that in my op the current "benevolent, positive sanchez" was due to miriam who blocks everything in congress.. and also that i intend to sell by next year. |
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05-21-26 savo
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iranian source close to the negotiating team:
1. The exchange of texts has not yet reached a final draft.
2. The US insistence on nuclear negotiations has dragged the talks to a deadlock.
3. Meanwhile, U.S. threats have angered Iran, and Tehran shows little desire to continue negotiations.
4. The possibility of conflict starting exists at any moment.
@Middle_East_Spectator |
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05-21-26 savo
spal... China cannot become a premier global reserve currency under its current economic model.
nor do they want to for all the reasons that you explain.
I think we are mixing things here.
The US$ has lost its reserve status the moment foreign central banks holdings of gold surpassed those of USTs. That part is settle...
However, the US$ remains and will remain for the foreseeable future the trading currency of choice... because, in international trade, most things are priced in US$. No other currency can perform that task outside some reduced areas of Chinese influence.
Tha does not mean people like the US$.. it is just convenience... it is the most liquid currency ..etc..
Regarding financial assets... there are few options outside US$ bonds and stocks... so the dollar will remain preferred there too.
If you go to argentina... you will notice that people buy and sell in argie pesos.. that does not mean they like the argie peso... it is simple the most liquid currency inside the country.
What the peso is in argie... the dollar is in the world.
The problem is that does not resolve the US funding problem. The US can run its humongous budget and trade and CA deficits and finance its army, because the world has been buying USTs at rates that kept the problem manageable... but if the world starts asking rates of 5...6... 10%.. because of inflation the dollar/financial crisis is inevitable. |
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05-21-26 savo
| JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran reach final draft of agreement, Iranian media reports. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, please understand i am not one in need to vote for anyone.
it also surprises me why would think i only have 2 choices (psoe or pp) in case i decided to ever vote.
anyway, just ruminating, dont pay too much attention :-)) |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, you also told me that sanchez = zp, and that sanchez was pro-russia, and that aznar did not send troops to iraq.. just saying. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, your vote goes to PSOE or PP?
//
you extrapolate so much. |
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05-21-26 pillz
"nominal rates up gold down"
//
that is the main reason imo, as gold gives no yield .. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Now the real Q is: your vote goes to PSOE or PP? |
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Vic, it was me that told you Spanish economy will do great independently of any political mess, remember? |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, why would you think that spain is incapable of having a k-shaped economy? |
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05-21-26 victor
| pana, those 2 statements are perfectly compatible. |
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05-21-26 victor
carib, right, it's one of the problems with the kind of economies that we have nowadays.
those with capital do well, those without, don't. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
"most people are getting screwed.
economic benefits are NOT trickling down to most.
that's why the PSOE keeps losing election after election."
And at the same time you posted "Spain is the country growing the most in EU".
Vic, you seem to be undecided yourself on who to vote for :-))) |
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05-21-26 carib
| Victor: that actually applies to any party in power, I am afraid.. |
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05-21-26 victor
El juez de la Audiencia Nacional bloquea las cuentas de Rodríguez Zapatero
El instructor acuerda esta medida una vez que se está investigando el flujo del dinero que podría haber cobrado por influencias
Según una diligencia de ordenación a la que ha tenido acceso La Vanguardia, el instructor ha acordado el bloqueo de diversas cuentas “visto el estado de las presentes actuaciones”. Esta decisión ha sido el siguiente paso después de que el martes se acordara la entrada y registro del despacho oficial del expresidente, donde se le ha requisado toda la documentación papel y digital.
|
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05-21-26 victor
pana, "jumping ahead of time"
//
most people are getting screwed.
economic benefits are NOT trickling down to most.
that's why the PSOE keeps losing election after election. |
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05-21-26 spal
Now let's please continue with the sound bites on the dollar's demise and the evils of America ...
;)) |
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05-21-26 spal
China cannot become a premier global reserve currency under its current economic model. To achieve true reserve status, a nation must fulfill three institutional requirements that Beijing’s leadership is fundamentally unwilling to grant.
First, a reserve asset requires open, hyper-liquid financial markets. Because China must enforce strict capital controls to prevent massive domestic capital flight, foreign institutions cannot freely enter or exit the onshore ecosystem at scale. Ring-fenced initiatives like offshore RMB hubs and the digital yuan facilitate trade settlement, but they fail to create a trusted store of sovereign wealth.
Second, a reserve currency demands **institutional trust and the rule of law. In China, property rights and capital allocations remain subordinate to the state's political objectives, exposing foreign capital to arbitrary administrative lockups.
Finally, a global reserve currency faces Triffin’s Dilemma: the issuing nation must run persistent trade deficits to supply the world with its currency. Doing so would dismantle China's entire economic engine, which relies on massive trade surpluses to sustain domestic manufacturing and employment.
Ultimately, the yuan will remain a highly manicured tool for bilateral trade—an "ersatz dollar" that cannot transition into a genuine global reserve asset without triggering a systemic domestic crisis.
Therefore Chickity ... |
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05-21-26 carib
| Nimitz carrier strike group moving to the caribbean.. (not towards Veny, but Cuba) |
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05-21-26 spal
| They know this BTW ... certain the CCP and their brains trust (so to speak). |
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05-21-26 spal
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
and who said that is true?
===
The contrary - US is open ... China is closed and their currency is linked to the dollar ... hence ersatz status.
If it floated it would be crushed.
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05-21-26 spal
Chickity China
Subordinating the Capital Account to Trade Policy
To maintain a tightly managed float (an artificial undervaluation or stability relative to the dollar), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has historically had to engage in massive buying of dollars and selling of yuan. If capital could move freely, standard arbitrage would break this link instantly. By deliberately keeping the capital account walled off via strict capital controls, Beijing chose:
Exchange rate stability (to secure its status as the world's factory).
Monetary independence (to fund state-directed industrial policy)....and sacrificed a free capital account.
This choice effectively ties China’s domestic monetary system to US Federal Reserve policy cycles. When the Fed hikes or cuts rates, the PBOC is forced to use heavy-handed administrative tools and backdoor capital controls to stop capital from leaking out, preventing the yuan from breaking its designated trading band.
The Side Effects: A Bloated Banking System & Unsterilized Credit - Because the capital account is closed, the dollar proceeds from China’s massive, structural trade surpluses cannot easily be reinvested abroad by Chinese citizens or private firms. Instead, they flow into the central bank, which issues local currency (onshore yuan) in exchange.
This creates structural pathologies:
The Trapped Wealth Phenomenon: Because domestic savers have few legitimate paths to invest externally, an immense pool of liquidity is trapped inside the domestic ecosystem.Unsterilized Credit & Asset Bubbles: The PBOC has frequently struggled to completely "sterilize" (mop up) the domestic liquidity injected by its foreign exchange interventions. This trapped capital naturally sloshed into the domestic banking system, resulting in hyper-financialization, an over-allocated property sector, and a deeply bloated banking system saddled with non-performing loans to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
Lack of Domestic Capital Depth: While China has advanced industries, its financial markets lack the transparency and institutional trust required to offer diverse, high-yield investment options for its own population, leaving citizens with few choices outside of low-yield bank deposits or state debt.
The Vulnerability: The Floating Yuan "Trap"
... capital flight is the ultimate structural trap facing Beijing.If China were to genuinely float the yuan and dismantle capital controls tomorrow, it would not trigger a orderly transition to a global reserve currency. Instead, it would trigger an unprecedented exodus of capital.
The Mechanics of the Flight: Wealthy individuals, corporate entities, and ordinary savers—fully aware of the structural vulnerabilities, real estate devaluation, and lack of secure domestic assets—would rush to convert their trapped yuan into foreign assets (dollars, gold, offshore equities).T
he irony of the "ersatz dollar" strategy is that it built a financial fortress that is simultaneously a prison. The strict capital controls are the only thing preventing a massive devaluation of the currency and a systemic run on the domestic banking sector.T
he Mid-2026 Nuance: The 15th Five-Year Plan DilemmaThis structural tension is coming to a head. The Chinese government has actively promoted "RMB Internationalization" and announced plans to gradually liberalize the capital account under its newly minted 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). However, they are attempting to do this via a highly manicured "closed-loop" system (like the Silk Road Fund, the digital yuan, and strictly monitored trade settlement channels). They want the prestige of an international currency without giving up the control that prevents the capital flight you identified.
Ultimately the very mechanics that granted China its historic trade dominance have left it with an extraordinarily fragile, debt-laden internal monetary framework that cannot survive contact with free-market capital flows.
Hence Chickity ...
;) |
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05-21-26 savo
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
and who said that is true?
|
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05-21-26 spal
| The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma (the "Impossible Trinity") ... or according to Schpal ... "Why China is really Chickety China" |
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05-21-26 spal
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05-21-26 carib
The next question is what is the size of colores holdings in €.
I guess a large number of millions.. essentially from EU based Colores... |
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05-21-26 spal
Since the yuan is linked to the dollar - it is what is called an erzatz dollar ... the rest of what you read about it is BS.
As soon as it is floated the capital flight out will sink it. |
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05-21-26 Merlino
What is the size of collective colores holdings of RMB (chinese yuans)?
............................
The only yuans I have hold were the ones I got from local ATMs using my usd debit card during a tourism trip
However my pockets are not deep enough to be taken as reference |
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05-21-26 panasonic
|
05-21-26 carib
| What is the size of collective colores holdings of RMB (chinese yuans)? |
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05-21-26 carib
There is a significant market for stablecoins linked to the US$.
In many latin american and african countries they are the only way for small savers to hold a reliable currency.
Why are 99% of stablecoins dollar linked, if the dollar is broken?
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
;-) |
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05-21-26 Merlino
The three IPOs alone programmed before year end will very likely ad a few $T of instantaneous but real wealth to the nation and privates. That will be much more than the 2026 increased in public/private debt.
For an old/traditional chap like me it is crazy economics as it is not based in productivity and production however I must admit it is real at least as long as it endures. |
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05-21-26 spal
What looks rational and logic almost never happens.
===
Wise words |
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05-21-26 spal
Holding - Schpal Schpecial
$GCUMF Gunnison Copper’s Q1 2026 results confirm a healthy balance sheet, highlighted by the complete elimination of its legacy secured debt.More importantly, recent corporate restructuring confirms the asset is being prepped for an early sale. Management recently secured a fixed $65 million royalty buyback option that is explicitly triggered only by a change-of-control transaction before March 2028. This move, combined with the onboarding of a new CEO and strategic backing from Rio Tinto and AWS, positions the company as a clean, highly attractive acquisition target.While near-term dilution remains a risk following a new C$200 million base shelf prospectus filing, this financing tool serves as a strategic liquidity bridge to advance permitting rather than a long-term capital drag. Boasting a robust US$2.0 billion post-tax NPV8%, Gunnison is a prime asymmetric buyout play, making it a Strong Hold and an attractive target for patient accumulation. |
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05-21-26 Merlino
who will want to lend to a country with no real growth.. a large budget deficit... who does not want to make any effort to balance the budget and fires the only senator who wanted to make an effort to put the house in order?
................................
Ok however the demise of the US and her empire, the usd, etc. is already a very generalized view. A too generalized view I would say.
What looks rational and logic almost never happens.
Debt is very high and growth can be low however assets at current prices are also very high. $T in mkt cap, RE, land, resources, etc.
Mkt levels are indicating anything but a demise of USA. WE can be surprised to see even higher and craziest mkt levels and value of the usd against all the equally crappy or worse currencies around.
Gold and silver I do not know however they seems to me (may be wrong) they are small (direct w/o derivatives) mkts in comparison to the usd currency/debt volume. Charts do not look very enticing at this point.
|
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05-21-26 spal
PPIH
PERMA-PIPE INTL HLDG
==
Adding.
Q1 results out c. June 9 or 10 |
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05-21-26 spal
That does not mean people will not continue piling up on semiconductors and other pearls of the stock market...
===
Well that is all we really want to know ...
;))
I did however visit Karl Marx's grave in Highgate ...
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05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, has nothing to do with short term moves.
If UST30Y yields 6% you buy and when rates fall back to 3.5% (on recession fear) you can book an excellent profit, that is how it works in current markets. |
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05-21-26 savo
| rates did not go down in covid because the economy halted... but because of QE... for which today's inflation is the cost. |
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05-21-26 savo
pana.. the us is not servicing its debt already... they are borrowing to pay the interest...
if growth falls more.... may be rates go up and not down... as tax income will fall... and the US will need to borrow more... not less...
who will want to lend to a country with no real growth.. a large budget deficit... who does not want to make any effort to balance the budget and fires the only senator who wanted to make an effort to put the house in order?
|
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Savo, indeed if growth collapses, rates will fall naturally...that mitigates the "won't be able to service debt" part of the equation, no? |
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05-21-26 savo
"Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs"
and what will they do when the war ends ?
will they not start replenishing those gold reserves or do you think they will buy USTs?
|
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05-21-26 savo
pana... growth continues being the opposite of strong...
q4 25 annualised 0.5%
q1 26 annualised 2%
as for earnings beating estimates... that is the narrative..
wall street runs on narrative... main street runs on reality... and reality looks ugly.
That does not mean people will not continue piling up on semiconductors and other pearls of the stock market... |
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05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, and growth continues to be strong, and companies' earnings are beating estimates...interesting days to be active.
|
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05-21-26 spal
| Savo - yes - agree on what seems to be buying favors etc. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
| Vic, that validates my view that ruling out Sanchez on next year's elections is jumping ahead of time. |
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05-21-26 savo
pana... if history repeats... gold will do better than stock indexes, cash, bonds and real estate in most locations...
..but will not be linear.
Regarding the fed... Walsh does not have the luxury Volcker had to increase rates on very low debt.
If Walsh increases rates even minimally Trump will go nuts...
if he increases rates in the magnitude needed there will be widespread defaults, riots and an unprecedented financial crisis.
I think they will choose inflation... |
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05-21-26 panasonic
"Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs"
That is what makes gold a lousy hedge vehicle, investors sell performing assets to raise cash. |
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05-21-26 savo
|
05-21-26 savo
i agree that the war has caused a lot of damage of precious metals..
but central banks selling treasuries... and receiving cash US$.. what are they going to do with that?
i would say gold will be up in the list... and semiconductors will not be in the list.
|
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05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, that is clear to me.
What I'm trying to say is that depending on the view, gold could be seen as a hedge, and to others as currency, for those the relative value vs fiat currencies does not make grow the size of gold stash.
That said, after many financial crises and all sort of political madness etc. the best way I've found to "hedge" such moments have been cash, and asking if anyone here has a different approach? |
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05-21-26 savo
| spal... irrespective of the true amount involved... the message is that the chief crook pardons the campaign contributor crook... |
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05-21-26 spal
| My son seems to like it - I took a look at the second rate beat up piece of junk they sell call real estate there and sell to young people. What a joke. By the way the whole process of buying real estate (unless you are Russian and unless you are in Belgravia is irredeemably broken). Anyhow he is young, in love and this is different for him ... but you pay through the nose for the comfort, cuteness and picture book history you get there. |
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05-21-26 spal
good to hold energy, tech.. and armaments, I guess.
====
And Wisconsin RE ...
Back state side from the UK ... there is zero comparison now in terms of economic outlook, individual prosperity and relative standard of living.
The UK is cute, quaint, but clearly second rate. Nice if you are a well heeled bourgeoisie, but even then I would get bored tooling around the lake country in my Range Rover. |
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05-21-26 spal
Savo - on Milton ...
You are completely right to be skeptical—**that number is wildly inaccurate.** Trevor Milton absolutely did not walk away with $7 billion in cash.
The confusion likely stems from a mix-up between his *peak paper net worth* and the actual *cash* he managed to extract before the company imploded.
Here is how the numbers actually break down:
### 1. The "7 Billion" was Paper Wealth, Not Cash
At the absolute height of the electric vehicle bubble in mid-2020, Nikola Corporation's stock skyrocketed, briefly giving the pre-revenue company a market cap higher than Ford. Because Milton owned about 25% of the shares, his **on-paper net worth** briefly peaked right around **$7 billion to $8 billion**.
However, that wasn't money in a bank account; it was highly volatile, restricted startup equity.
### 2. What He Actually Kept (The Real Cash Out)
Milton didn't leave empty-handed, but the actual cash he extracted was a fraction of that headline figure:
* **The IPO Cash-Out:** According to the SEC and financial filings (notably highlighted in the original Hindenburg Research report), Milton cashed out roughly **$70 million** around the time of the public listing.
* **Subsequent Stock Sales:** Following his resignation in September 2020 and subsequent legal troubles, he periodically liquidated blocks of shares, bringing his total lifetime stock sales closer to the **$300 million** range.
### 3. Claws Back and Penalties
Even that cash came under severe pressure from legal battles. An arbitration panel ordered Milton to pay **$165 million** back to Nikola to cover the costs of the company’s SEC settlement and legal fees.
While his paper wealth evaporated by more than 85% as Nikola stock plummeted into bankruptcy, his criminal convictions for securities and wire fraud—which carried a four-year prison sentence—were erased by a presidential pardon in March 2025.
So, if anyone claims he personally "kept" $7 billion, they are fundamentally confusing the transient peak value of a hyper-inflated stock bubble with actual cold, hard cash. He walked away a multi-millionaire, but nowhere near a multi-billionaire.
Fact checking anything that does not sound right is easy these days amigo. |
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05-21-26 spal
| GLD not working - Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs - to break the price shock. I see sideways gold for a while although longer term we have generalized inflation. |
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05-21-26 victor
pana, sanchez isn't zp.. the EC revised UP spain's growth from 2.3 to 2.4%..
while revising down the region from 1.2 to 0.9%.
//
Bruselas rebaja las previsiones de la economía europea por la guerra de Irán pero España esquiva el golpe
La Comisión vuelve a situar a España como el país que más crece entre las grandes potencias mientras revisa a la baja en tres décimas la expansión de la eurozona
La Comisión Europea ha rebajado las previsiones económicas de la eurozona de esta primavera en tres décimas, del 1,2% al 0,9% para este año, mientras la inflación se eleva del 1,9% al 3% debido a los altos precios del combustible
España resiste a los malos números y sigue siendo el país que más crece entre las grandes potencias de la UE, que en su conjunto aumentará un 1,1%. Bruselas considera que la expansión de la economía española es robusta, y hasta realiza una ligera revisión al alza del cuadro del 2026 debido a un “fuerte efecto arrastre” del año anterior. Si en otoño la Comisión calculaba que España crecería un 2,3% este año, en las previsiones económicas de primavera indica que lo hará un 2,4%
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05-21-26 CAC
Am Israel Jai
On the need of blood of bloodthirsty NetanDracula:
Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed a renewed effort to reach a deal with Iran during a lengthy and tense phone call on Tuesday.
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05-21-26 savo
in my opinion because algos do what they were told to do...
but it does not matter... precious metals are not for those who want to see their portfolio go up everyday.
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05-21-26 victor
savo, Since the Iran war gold has not behaved as people would have expected.
yes... why, in your opinion? |
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05-21-26 savo
pana... i do not think one should own precious metals and sell when needing to pay the electricity bill.
All I tried to do over the last few months was to bring them into the conversation, pointing out that when measured against real money passive equity investment (equity index funds as recommended by Buffet) has produced negative returns.
Gold is real money because it can not be manipulated by politicians and central banks, but its price can fluctuate or stagnate for many reasons.
Since the Iran war gold has not behaved as people would have expected...which shows that as any asset it is not easy to predict. Prices these days are not a consequence of human actions but of algorithms which are simplifications like "oil up gold down"... "nominal rates up gold down"... irrespective of oil up meaning more inflation and real rates going down.
But reality eventuall ycatches up with wall street narrative.
However, if one has the ability to spot the equity sector that moves, that person will do better than gold, if he always gets it right.
Carib said semiconductors did better than gold. At every point in time there will be something doing better than gold and many things doing worse. Gold is an asset class not an equity sector. We compare gold with equities, not with sectors.. not with specific stocks. |
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05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, in the context of rates or QE or Fed Balance Sheet as you posted, yes you could time some asset re-allocation.
If strictly as your asset of choice, monetary policy has no relevance as size of your holding won't vary, X oz will be X minus what you had to sell to cover expenses during the year. |
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05-20-26 savo
pana.. gold is not a hedge... I do not know why people keep on repeating that.
It is an asset.. with the particularity that it has been around 5000 years and has beaten every other monetary asset in history... that is all...
nobody guarantees the price of gold will behave in a particular way in a particular day.
If you want to beat the market everyday, every week, every month... forget about precious metals...
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05-20-26 panasonic
Savo, cash is the only thing that works during meltdowns, slv and gld have been lousy hedges.
Now I can buy 25% more gold than few months ago, it's how system works that counts. |
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05-20-26 savo
incidentally..
UST yields are not attractive... but attractive UST yields are un-payable... making an already insolvent USA even more insolvent.
I hope you get what you wish and UST yields get very attractive and the US economy in shatters. |
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05-20-26 savo
carib..
I doubt Central Banks buy semiconductors.
But semiconductors need silver... as well as batteries and solar panels... etc..
everything is linked with everything else... but prices are determined by algos... and they are what they are until they aren't.
you know how markets work.. everybody piles up into the same thing... until the hype ends... usually badly.
Gold with its ups and downs has been around as nature money for over 5,000 years... i doubt 100 years fiat will last another 100.
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05-20-26 pillz
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05-20-26 pillz
UST Yields are not yet attractive.. unless we get big deflation.
/
agree, but who are buying ?? not me , but it looks like it is a trillion market and still holding good , as you say "UST Yields are not yet attractive " |
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05-20-26 carib
| Semiconductors, this year, were much better than Gold.. |
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05-20-26 carib
Savo: after tax and inflation..
precisely.. but.. taxes go to the debtor (gov) and inflation deflates the debt in real term.
UST Yields are not yet attractive.. unless we get big deflation. |
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05-20-26 savo
pana.. what cash?
that is precisely the dilema... the person that sells USTs because negative real rates will provoke the depreciation of the dollar under a wall of inflation... why would he hold dollars?
that is when people will go back and buy gold and silver... and that is what will provoke the next leg up to 6000 and beyond.
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05-20-26 savo
Bitcoin Grows More Dependent on Michael Saylor’s Buying Machine
Bitcoin's price is being driven by a single company, Strategy Inc., which has acquired 171,238 Bitcoin year-to-date, according to its public filings.
Strategy funds its Bitcoin purchases through a perpetual preferred stock called STRC, which pays investors an 11.5% annual cash dividend, and the company's buying activity is concentrated around the monthly record date.
The concentration of demand in Strategy raises questions about what happens to the $1.5 trillion asset if the company's buying falters, as the market's other traditional demand sources, such as retail and ETF inflows, have dried up.
What makes the concentration striking is not Saylor’s conviction, which has never been in doubt, but the quiet collapse of everything around him. The flows into US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that defined the 2024 bull run have dried up of late. Hedge funds poured into ETFs as an arbitrage trade — that premium has now vanished. The arbitrage is gone, and so are the funds.
Retail has also largely disappeared. Daily trading volumes in South Korea — a reliable barometer of speculative appetite in Asia and beyond — have fallen. The explanation is not complicated: the South Korean stock market has returned more than 150% over the past 12 months, driven by semiconductor companies. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s decline looks like the wrong trade, and ordinary investors have acted accordingly.
All that raises a big question: What happens to a $1.5 trillion asset when the one mechanism sustaining it falters? Strategy’s average purchase price across its roughly 843,700 Bitcoin holdings sits at roughly $75,700, slightly below where Bitcoin trades today. That thin cushion matters. Any fall in the token wouldn’t just hurt Strategy’s balance sheet — it would erode confidence in STRC, which closes the At-The-Market share selling program, which removes the bid, which puts further pressure on Bitcoin. The loop that has driven prices higher runs just as efficiently in reverse. |
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05-20-26 panasonic
Savo, that is clear, under that view cash is better, wait for hedge funds to blow and buy gold after the big puke.
Cash works better in those scenarios. |
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05-20-26 pillz
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05-20-26 savo
pana.. the dot com bubble exploded sometime in 2000/2001... gold touched in those days 270 oz...and QE started first unofficially then officially... consequence...gold at 4500 after a high of 5500.
How do you think the US will pay its 39 trn at 5% interest rates...?
1) Increase Taxes
2) Reduce government spending
3) Stop launching endless wars financed with foreign borrowing
4) With more borrowing
5) QE
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05-20-26 savo
| carib.. after tax and inflation... real bond yields are very negative... who wants to own government debt at negative real yields denominated in a depreciating currency? |
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05-20-26 savo
| pana... zoom out... and use the opportunity Mr Market is giving you to buy more and more and more... |
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05-20-26 carib
Savo: we are facing higher inflation after Hormuz, and coherently bond demanded yields move up.
After tax real long yields are either 0 or slightly positive, but not yet compensating for the risk, IMHO.
good to hold energy, tech.. and armaments, I guess. |
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05-20-26 savo
On the need of blood of bloodthirsty NetanDracula:
Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed a renewed effort to reach a deal with Iran during a lengthy and tense phone call on Tuesday.
Two Israeli sources said the two leaders were in disagreement about the way forward, while the U.S. source briefed on the call said 'Netanyahu's hair was on fire after the call'.
Netanyahu is highly skeptical about the negotiations and wants to resume the war to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and weaken the Iranian government by destroying its critical infrastructure. — Axios |
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05-20-26 victor
Rep. María Elvira Salazar
Raúl Castro ha sido imputado.
Después de 67 años, el Departamento de Justicia de los Estados Unidos dejó claro que el tiempo no borra la responsabilidad. Este momento es para las víctimas, para sus familias, y para cada cubano que nunca dejó de creer que este día llegaría. |
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05-20-26 pillz
| I took yesterday a position in AEM |
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05-20-26 panasonic
Savo and GLD & SLV not working, hedge is out of service.
What should we do?
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05-20-26 pillz
| souverain debt is not a problem imo , as the central bank can loan on his B/S to recalibrate the high debt ... |
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05-20-26 victor
carib, "Does not look good for PSOE now.. but a year is an extremely long term in politics.."
right.. yesterday illa, the psc/psoe cat leader and sanchez' #1 ally, approved the cat budget with erc's support.
they admitted waiting for the andalucia elections before approving said budget, in order not to interfere negatively with andalucia, for the psoe.
so right now cat is, literally, the only positive thing sanchez has going for himself. |
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05-20-26 savo
pillz.. look at german bond yields... japan bond yields... us bond yields... the bond market is cratering ...
according to AI if japan has to refinance its debt at 3% pa it would consume 33% of the budget
if the US would have to refinance at 4% it would consume 26% of the budget.
There is nobody to bail out the US and Japan.
exploding yields and exploding inflation...
death by inflation or death by sovereign financial crisis.
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05-20-26 pillz
the problem pillz is that this crisis in not private credit.. or mortgages... it is a sovereign crisis...
//
this is not a problem, it would be a problem if it was a private credit ... |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, this is from today, re atocha.
aznar, a proven liar, said in private that morocco is behind atocha.. supervised by france and maybe the usa..
to the extent one can believe aznar.
//
Federico Jiménez Losantos asegura que Aznar admite en privado lo que ocurrió el 11-M:
🇲🇦 “Fue Marruecos, supervisado por Francia y tal vez Estados Unidos, y no podíamos decir por dónde iba porque sería declararle la guerra a Marruecos”
https://x.com/LaColmenaDiario/status/2057105508419424516
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05-20-26 carib
Trump, on the other hand, it explicitly turning november mid-terms into a referendum on himself.
we will see what comes out there... |
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05-20-26 carib
Spanish elections are next year.
Does not look good for PSOE now.. but a year is an extremely long term in politics..
If PP comes back in power.. I hope they cut taxes (but do not count on it) |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, also, Blair said IM SORRY.. aznar never did.
'I'm sorry': Historic moment Tony Blair FINALLY apologises for Iraq War and admits in TV interview the conflict caused the rise of ISIS
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-3287982/I-m-sorry-Blair-takes-blame-Iraq-War-admits-conflict-caused-rise-ISIS-astonishing-apology-TV-show.html
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05-20-26 victor
pana, i don't think it's hard to understand.
aznar simply doesn't want to admit he made a big mistake with iraq.
the PP has also used its power in Congress to block any, and all, Congressional investigations into what happened in Iraq.
//
Aznar, veinte años sin rendir cuentas sobre la guerra de Irak
El expresidente del Gobierno nunca ha asumido responsabilidades por aquella decisión política |
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05-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, yep too hard to understand for me. |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, "BS from PSOE that was 2003 and Aznar ruled out sending troops."
//
it's not PSOE BS... aznar is the liar.
...cuando Aznar habló para decir que "España no participó" en la guerra. "España no mandó soldados a aquella guerra", sentenció.
Mintió: alrededor de 2.600 soldados españoles fueron desplegados en Irak entre agosto de 2003 y mayo 2004.
Solo un día después de convertirse en presidente del Gobierno, el 18 de abril de 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero anunció la retirada de las tropas españolas de Irak.
https://www.publico.es/politica/aznar-veinte-anos-rendir-cuentas-sobre-guerra-irak.html
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05-20-26 savo
the problem pillz is that this crisis in not private credit.. or mortgages... it is a sovereign crisis...
so there is not way to stop that.
The US has just run out of money... and there is nobody willing to lend them money at rates that would not blow out the budget deficit.
The only option they have is to print their way out or borrow for ever shorter tenors...
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05-20-26 victor
pana, yes it was 2003.
16 march 2003 onwards, after the azores meeting. here is wiki:
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In Spain, the Azores Summit was widely criticized and, according to some experts, it was a turning point that marked the beginning of the fall of the People's Party, which would be further accentuated by the 2004 Madrid train bombings.[5][6]
The ultimatum finally led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq by an international coalition of countries, without the explicit backing of the United Nations,[7] although they relied on United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCR) 1441, 1483, and 1511.[8]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores_Summit
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05-20-26 savo
meanwhile... in the land of the crooks...
Trump was just given a blanket pardon from the IRS for any past, present, or future tax crimes.
https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/2056830659230900285 |
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05-20-26 savo
i do not understand the obsession with teddy bear maduro when the real criminals are at home
Trevor Milton defrauded investors to the tune of 30 billion. He personally kept 7 billion. He was found guilty and sentenced to prison for 4 years.
He never served a day.
He donated a few million to trump. Then trump issued a pardon. Which meant his debtors would not be forced to be paid. He declared bankruptcy but somehow is still a billionaire.
He is now trying to sell a shit biz jet and is already exaggerating its specs.
https://x.com/jamestate121/status/2056710950158262635
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05-20-26 panasonic
Vic, BS from PSOE that was 2003 and Aznar ruled out sending troops.
https://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/18/sprj.irq.spain/
But lets conclude that I'm zero interested in Spanish politics bcz its full of BS :-))) |
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05-20-26 victor
| US pursuing second criminal investigation into Maduro, sources say |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, that's the BS that the PP likes to say.
reality is that after aznar decided to invade iraq, against the vast majority of public opinion, he was all done.
so no, i dont buy that zp won because of atocha. |
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05-20-26 panasonic
| Zapatero Vic!! Aznar (who was leading in all polls) losed in 2004 vs ZP.. |
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05-20-26 pillz
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05-20-26 pillz
pillz.. do you still believe foreign investors are not dumping treasuries?
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there are those that are dumping because of inflation, BUT there are also those that are buying ... |
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05-20-26 victor
saying that sanchez got elected because of atocha...
while obviating the elephant in the room, rajoy.
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05-20-26 victor
pana, who got elected after Atocha?
//
rajoy in 2011 |
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05-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, long story short, I stopped following politics in Spain after Atocha, reaction of voters reflects that is not a corrupt political system only, is something embedded in their everyday life. |
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05-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, who got elected after Atocha?and who is Sanchez if not the continuation of ZP policies? |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, if days before elections an Islamic group blows things, they will chicken out again?
//
are you saying that people voted for Sanchez due to the atocha attacks?
if so, i dont agree with you.
atocha = 11 de marzo de 2004 !!!
sanchez was appointed PM on 2 June 2018... 14 years later, when rajoy was forced to resign- vote of no confidence. |
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05-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, what will Spanish voters do in one year if days before elections an Islamic group blows things, they will chicken out again? |
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05-20-26 victor
La imputación de Zapatero le pone en el punto de mira de EE.UU.
El auto de la Audiencia Nacional le relaciona con una trama por la que acaba de ser imputado el testaferro de Maduro, Alex Saab |
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05-20-26 victor
El Departamento de Justicia de EE.UU. prepara anuncio en medio de sus esfuerzos para imputar a Raúl Castro
CNN Español —
El Departamento de Justicia de Estados Unidos citó para este miércoles a un anuncio en el marco de una ceremonia para recordar el derribo de aviones de la organización de exiliados cubano-estadounidenses Hermanos al Rescate, ocurrido en 1996, y en medio de sus esfuerzos para presentar cargos penales contra el expresidente cubano Raúl Castro.
De acuerdo con la convocatoria, el acto se llevará a cabo a la 1:00 p.m. en Miami, hora local, y será encabezado por el secretario de Justicia interino, Todd Blanche, a quien acompañarán fiscales, funcionarios del Buró Federal de Investigación (FBI, por sus siglas en inglés) y legisladores. |
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05-20-26 victor
| pana, y lo que savo te dice, los de PP y VOX no son ningunas lumbreras. |
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05-20-26 victor
pana, out of zapaterism anytime soon
//
sanchismo, en todo caso... bastante mas inteligente que zp.
faltan mas de 12 meses para las elecciones, pana.
lo vengo diciendo, que sanchez esperara hasta el ultimo dia para convocar elecciones, en 2027. |
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