07-06-26 spal
OSINT indicators point toward the "Venezuela Model" used earlier this year against Nicolás Maduro: A sudden, highly targeted Joint Forcible Entry (JFE) or decapitation strike led by special operations forces to apprehend senior regime figures (like Raúl Castro or Miguel Díaz-Canel) rather than holding vast territory.
Ground operations would likely be heavily localized around reinforcing the existing U.S. military installation at Guantanamo Bay, which has seen direct visits from senior U.S. intelligence officials. |
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07-06-26 carib
| Is the cuban regime about to give up the ghost? |
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07-06-26 carib
Panas: proceeding along the entirely academic discussion path..
If the US was to manage Veny like HK.. they would appoint a Governor, could revise all past passport concessions.. and holders of Veny passports would still need a visa to travel to the USA.. |
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07-06-26 victor
The man who told you to “never sell your bitcoin” just sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million.
5 weeks ago he sold 32 BTC and called it a one time thing
This new sale is 112x larger than that.
- In May he sold 32 BTC for $2.5M and MSTR dropped 5% and BTC dropped below $72K on the news. He promised he would “buy 10-20 bitcoin for every 1 he sells.” That was the narrative patch
- 5 weeks later he just dumped 3,588 BTC. $216 million. To pay dividends on STRC preferred stock. The same STRC instrument he launched specifically because the old strategy of just buying BTC wasn’t generating yield
- His company holds 843,775 BTC. At this acceleration rate the sells are scaling exponentially while bitcoin sits at cycle lows. First sell: 32. Second sell: 3,588. What’s the third?
- He literally said on the Q1 earnings call “we will probably sell some bitcoin to pay dividends.” He told you the plan out loud. Most people heard “probably” and ignored the rest
- Strategy pivoted from “never sell” to “actively managing the balance sheet.” That’s corporate language for “the infinite accumulation thesis broke and we need liquidity”
- The STRC dividend is a recurring obligation. This isn’t a one time event.
He has to keep selling BTC every quarter to fund it.
Michael Saylor didn’t change his mind about bitcoin. He just built a debt structure which is insanely risky.
The greatest bitcoin bull of all time is now a seller. And he’s accelerating. |
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07-06-26 victor
Michael Saylor
Strategy has sold 3,588 $BTC for $216 million to fund dividends on our Digital Credit securities. As of 7/5/2026, we hodl ₿843,775 in our BTC Reserves and $2.55 billion in our USD Reserves.
6:03 AM · Jul 6, 2026 |
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07-06-26 victor
savo, i don't think that most of these guys were buying access to dt..
they were simply betting on dt.
//
The New York Times reports that Nansen's analysis is based on transactions that are publicly visible on the blockchain, showing that 988,905 accounts had lost money on the memecoin as of the end of June. That represents around two out of three $TRUMP buyers. |
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07-06-26 savo
victor... the white house is for sale... and you buy access to it buying DT's coin...investors do not care about the losses... they care about having access to the president...
Didn't open AI offer 5% of the company to the government?
why?... to have access. |
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07-06-26 victor
Trump memecoin investors lost $3.8 billion, analysis finds
Nearly 1 million people have lost a total of $3.8 billion after buying President Donald Trump's $TRUMP memecoin, according to cryptocurrency analytics firm Nansen.
On Sunday, $TRUMP was trading at $1.69, down nearly 98% from its high of $75.35.
In a recent financial disclosure, the president revealed that he made $636 million from the $TRUMP memecoin, accounting for nearly half of the $1.4 billion that the president made from the crypto industry last year. |
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07-06-26 panasonic
| Carib, could work if Veni was not infested of all sorts of rats (Farc, ELN, Hezbollah) holding Veni passports :-( |
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07-06-26 savo
i was not thinking in a protectorate in the political sense....but in the economic sense.
The US bombarded veni with economic sanctions and destroyed its economy beyond what chavism had done on its own.
And they did it out malice without any objective other than to cause harm the people of venezuela while enriching Guaido, Vecchio, Borges, MCM and the rest of the 2015 AN, PDVsa ad hoc, supreme court in exile...etc....
it is fair that the US now helps with the reconstruction and i am happy to see they are doing just that. |
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07-06-26 carib
| The model could be.. Hong Kong (before 1999) |
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07-06-26 carib
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07-06-26 carib
Panas: that would be an easy to selve problem, IMHO.
For example, french overseas departments are fully part of France.. but to fly from there to Paris.. you go via passport control as if coming from outside the EU.
Veny could have "special status" not electing representative to the US congress, no automatic right to settle in the US, etc.
The british, historically, have been masters of such art, and they could provide a bunch of useful suggestions. |
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07-06-26 Merlino
your price target in ~2 years?
......................................
Pana, I do not know however I think people holding here or new non speculative buyers/traders are taking the considerable risk involved in the expectation/hope to make about a double from here (at mkt prices) before the end of Trump gov |
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07-05-26 savo
fu**ing demented psycho...
Estados Unidos califica de “contraproducentes” los intentos de María Corina Machado de volver a Venezuela
Las fricciones entre la Administración de Donald Trump y María Corina Machado son cada vez más evidentes. La líder de la oposición de Venezuela porfía por regresar a su país, y más ahora, tras los terremotos que han dejado cerca de 2.300 muertos y 11.000 heridos. El Gobierno de Estados Unidos se alinea con el de la presidenta interina Delcy Rodríguez e insiste en que no es el momento. Los intentos de la premio Nobel por regresar ahora son “contraproducentes”, ha declarado a este periódico un portavoz del Departamento de Estado.
Machado había intentado regresar a su país el fin de semana pasado. Primero, a través de la isla de Curaçao, en un trayecto inverso al de noviembre pasado, cuando salió de Venezuela para dirigirse a Oslo a recoger su premio Nobel. Pero la avioneta privada en la que viajaba recibió orden de regresar cuando aún sobrevolaba territorio estadounidense. “Las autoridades neerlandesas, responsables de los asuntos exteriores de Curaçao, creyeron al principio que Estados Unidos respaldaba su viaje, pero retiraron el permiso para aterrizar después de que Washington dejara claro que no lo apoyaba”, apunta el periódico The Wall Street Journal citando a “personas familiarizadas con el asunto”.
Tras ese intento fallido, el secretario de Estado, Marco Rubio, transmitió a Machado la opinión de la Administración de Trump: que, aunque no le impedirían el regreso, no era el momento de intentarlo, dado que toda la atención y los esfuerzos debían dedicarse a los trabajos de rescate.
“La Administración de Trump está centrada exclusivamente en continuar nuestros esfuerzos para responder a los gravísimos terremotos en Venezuela”, declaró el jueves el portavoz del Departamento de Estado sobre los intentos de Machado por volver. “Añadir cuestiones políticas sensibles a esta situación en estos momentos es contraproducente para nuestros esfuerzos de respuesta después de esta tragedia”.
Pese a la posición estadounidense, Machado decidió intentarlo de nuevo. Esta vez desde Panamá, el domingo pasado. Allí, las líneas aéreas Copa le denegaron el embarque por temor a posibles represalias del Gobierno venezolano. Desde el país centroamericano, la premio Nobel publicaba un video, distribuido por redes sociales, en el que expresaba su determinación a regresar a Venezuela. Quería, según explicaba, “enfrentar juntos esta catástrofe como lo hace una familia unida cuando uno de sus miembros sufre”.
https://elpais.com/us/2026-07-02/estados-unidos-sobre-los-intentos-de-maria-corina-machado-de-volver-a-venezuela-son-contraproducentes.html
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Savo, definitely not the time to think abt. political transitions in Veni, MCM dodged a bullet. |
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07-05-26 savo
"the earthquake moved the needle against bondholders
i would think the earthquake moved the needle against the evil psycho.
Very little chance of an election soon.
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Nasdaq future flying, gold in good mood. |
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Carib, proposal would win by a landslide, but why would USA take a country with an impossible to control border with the rest of latam? |
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Merlino, your price target in ~2 years? |
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07-05-26 Merlino
On Veni, what worries me....
............................
It seems to me this is not a good time to liquidate....three consecutive shocks: $240 (???) debt + Earthquake + WTI again @ 70 should be already priced in |
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07-05-26 victor
New supreme leader yet to appear as Tehran prepares for largest day of Khamenei’s funeral
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07-05-26 carib
| Maybe they should have a referendum in Veny proposing "PortoRico status".. |
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07-05-26 carib
Trump is likely to lose the house in November, according to polls.
But the real question is: could a protectorate work long term without bipartisan support in the US.. and popular support in Veny?
a 30 year bond covers a long amount of time.. |
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Savo, this is why timeline is so critical, if NY's bondholder rapists take the house in midterms things may sour. |
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07-05-26 savo
i think the earthquake accelerates the need to have the financial house in order...in order to boost oil and minerals production.
A quick resolution needs the consent of bondholders who will not agree to be raped.
I see two mistakes from Centerview already.. 1) mix bonded debt with judgements and IOUs 2) bundle PDVSA and rep debt.
PDVSA should return to be immaculate like every other sovereign oil company in the world. That should take priority over everything else.
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07-05-26 panasonic
Vic, faster occupation not always translates in a better outcome for bondholders.
After the earthquake, imho chances are offer will be at lower rates with longer grace periods, we'll have to wait and see. |
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07-05-26 victor
Three of Khamenei’s sons join mass mourning in Tehran, but not his successor
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07-05-26 victor
pana, "the earthquake moved the needle against bondholders quite a bit."
the other side of the coin is that the earthquake greatly accelerated plans by the us military to take over vz.
they now even control maiquetia. |
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07-05-26 panasonic
On Veni, what worries me is timeline, the earthquake moved the needle against bondholders quite a bit.
So let's say you can do a 30% more waiting 2 years with all the risks of political changes in US and/or other conflicts like Iran or Russian/Ukraine wars gets solved, what happens to oil markets?
If you divide 30% by two, it's only 15%/year.
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07-05-26 panasonic
| Savo, Miami in practice fixed 20%...if you ask to reduce the tip probably manager will approach and ask you if you had a problem :-)) |
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07-05-26 savo
yes they are... life can be very pleasant in any of them though...
i am coming from NY...had a very nice time and went to a few matches... also had the pleasure to spend 25 dollars in breakfasts that would cost me 7.50 euros in any European beach and had to battle every waiter to make them understand that my max tip is 10% and only if they serve me at the table and well... got a lot of angry faces.
The good thing is that the tip does not come automatically in the bill as it used to... one has to choose a % in the card machine or choose "custom tip" and put the desired amount.
I heard in Miami it is 20% fixed. |
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07-05-26 spal
Luxembourg...Switzerland... Singapore...Andorra...Monaco...Gibraltar!
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These are toy countries. |
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07-05-26 savo
1) One in 25 people. One in four dollars.
that is GDP per capita.... how does it compare to Luxembourg...Switzerland... Singapore...Andorra...Monaco...Gibraltar!
2) U.S. stocks are now 65% of the entire world's equity value
the opposite side of the Fed balance sheet
3) Americans gave a record $617.2 billion to charity in 2025
the opposite side of the trade deficit and the CA deficit. |
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07-05-26 spal
America is home to roughly 1 in 24 people on earth, about 4.2% of the planet. Yet we produce 26% of all global GDP.
One in 25 people. One in four dollars.
The U.S. economy alone is bigger than China, Japan and Germany combined.
U.S. stocks are now 65% of the entire world's equity value, up from 40% a decade ago.
America deploys 57% of the world's venture capital.
It's not by accident that the Internet, AI and most modern technological advances are America-made or led.
Americans gave a record $617.2 billion to charity in 2025, according to Giving USA — more than any other nation, and consistently among the highest as a share of GDP.
Happy Birthday. The best is yet to come.
https://www.axios.com/2026/07/04/america-4th-of-july-patriotism-capitalism-business
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07-05-26 spal
they should have hired me instead of Centerview...
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Almost certainly they should have Savo. |
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07-05-26 carib
I would sign for 6% coupon over 50% claim haircut.. if the exit yield is 8% or less.
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07-05-26 savo
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07-05-26 savo
carib.. pdvsa + rep bonds is approximately 103bn with accrued... 50% haircut.. say 55bn by year end... i think veni can perfectly well pay 6% on that number.... 3.5bn pa.
as a US protectorate the new bonds should trade at par.
It is not that difficult to resolve... they should have hired me instead of Centerview... i would charged less and do it quicker. |
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