06-24-26 carib
JEFF First reactions to FT story:
1. There is no breakdown of the debt figures, so we can’t see how they got there, but it sounds like they purposely produced a very aggressive estimate to set expectations about what’s to come. I use the word ‘estimate’ deliberately, since arriving at an actual figure without a proper, transparent audit is simply not possible.
2. They must incorporate domestic bolivar-denominated obligations, many still unrecognized or even past the statute of limitations, and highly sensitive to the FX rate used to convert them into dollars (on one of my visits, my hotel bill was US$1k/night or US$10/night depending on the rate used).
3. Even if the number proves real, many categories won’t be treated the same in a restructuring.
4. It’s odd the figures aren’t coming from official sources, though it probably won’t take long for official sources to start reflecting these numbers.
5. As much as they overestimate debt figures, at US$100 billion they are underestimating dollar GDP. That would put Venezuela’s GDP per capita a lot closer to Haiti than Ecuador. Another vehicle to set expectations for high haircuts.
6. The article mentions intentions to restructure by year end, but in reality the US government holds the key to making that happen. Without lifting key sanctions, a restructuring, or even direct negotiations between the government and bondholders toward one, cannot happen.
7. Markets may not react well to the story, but my guess is they’ll continue to focus on the ~US$175 billion estimate and treat the rest as claims with uncertain recovery values until proven otherwise. |
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06-24-26 spal
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06-24-26 leopardo
| Delcy would like to end debt restructuring in 2026...it seems tight to me...we shall see |
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06-24-26 spal
| MASS manufactures handheld, point-of-need mass spectrometers and chemical analyzers (like the MX908 and VipIR). Historically, mass spectrometry required a multi-million-dollar laboratory footprint and a PhD to run. MASS has shrunk that technology into a rugged, battery-powered device used by elite military units, border customs, and local first responders to instantly identify fentanyl, chemical weapons, and toxic carcinogens in the field. |
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06-24-26 spal
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06-24-26 carib
How much does Cuba owe Venezuela?
I suggest to pay Russia with cuban credits..
;-) |
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06-24-26 leopardo
| Expected to be around 170\180 bln. |
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06-24-26 carib
| Panas: true. Samsung up 10% in Korea again. |
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06-24-26 leopardo
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06-24-26 leopardo
| Venezuela Debt said to be around 240 Billions. |
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06-24-26 panasonic
Pilly, I know very little but two things me would count on:
1) AI is here to stay, cost of compute will drop and expected profit margins won't hold.
2) Meanwhile, massive liquidity has no place to go, so we'll see strong bounce backs till music stops. |
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06-23-26 pillz
While warnings about tech euphoria aren’t new, the latest slide was triggered by amplified swings in the world’s best‑performing market this year. What started as a modest drop in South Korea morphed into a plunge that saw foreign investors offloading more than $2.5 billion of Kospi shares.
Market watchers cited forced liquidation hitting retail investors trading on borrowed money, compounded by a wave of selling tied to leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. |
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06-23-26 panasonic
Redistributing Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Fortune Would Likely Give Each U.S. Household Just $1,500. Here’s the Math:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/markets/stocks/articles/redistributing-elon-musk-1-trillion-164835714.html |
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