05-05-26 spal
| The bombing of the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) on May 4/5 is the most significant economic strike on the UAE to date.Infrastructure Damage: Satellite imagery and local reports confirm that the fire at FOIZ hit a major energy hub. Fujairah is critical because it houses the terminus of the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, the UAE's only way to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The Message: By hitting Fujairah, Iran has signaled that even "bypassing" the Strait does not grant safety. The strike injured at least three Indian nationals and caused a "virtual standstill" in tanker traffic. Offshore Escalation: OSINT confirms a cargo ship is currently on fire off the UAE coast (near Khorfakkan), further paralyzing the maritime insurance market. |
|
05-05-26 spal
The OSINT signal from the UAE is "High Alert / Heavy Impact."
Fujairah Damage: Satellite imagery (Planet Labs) confirms significant damage to the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ). The Iranian strike yesterday was not just a warning; it was a decapitation of bunkering infrastructure.
The HMM Namu: The explosion on the HMM Namu (a Panamanian-flagged, South Korean-owned ship) off the coast of the UAE has effectively frozen all insurance-seeking traffic.
Abu Dhabi is reportedly "seething" at the U.S. decision to pause. They have absorbed the kinetic blows (missiles and drones) of the Iranian retaliation, only for the U.S. to "stop the clock" without securing the Strait. |
|
05-05-26 spal
Trump pauses "Project Freedom" for negotiations while claiming it was a "tremendous Military Success," despite no ship verifiably passing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliating heavily by attacking the UAE in response to the operation. He says the blockade on Iranian.
... LMAO |
|
05-05-26 Merlino
We do not know what the US wants.
....................
I humbly suspect some people over there are making a killing with this debt
My feeling is that veni have become too important to be run by a psychotic woman.
...................................
Me too fwiw
W/o policy/military (chavista) support the country will easily enter in an uncontrolled chaos |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Pilly check SOXL after hours. |
|
05-05-26 pillz
| qqq , spy and ewy are at all time high ... crazy |
|
05-05-26 savo
carib... if the evil psycho and her evil adviser take over before a restructuring happens they will try to have a clean slate and not carry the burden of the debt.
If Delcy does the restructuring she will be friendly to creditors because they lent the money under chavist rule.
We do not know what the US wants.
My feeling is that veni have become too important to be run by a psychotic woman. |
|
05-05-26 carib
| Savo: bonds further upside before restructuring, in your opinion? |
|
05-05-26 savo
| i hope these restrictions do not mean they are waiting for the evil psycho and his most evil advisor to take over. |
|
05-05-26 savo
Key Details of the Authorization:
Authorized Services: The license allows for the assessment, development, and preparation of debt restructuring options, proposals, and supporting documentation.
Scope: Includes the government of Venezuela, PDVSA, and their majority-owned entities.
Restrictions: The license does not authorize the actual restructuring, settlement of debt, or direct negotiations between the government and creditors regarding the restructuring.
Purpose: The action is aimed at enabling preparatory work on restructuring the country's multibillion-dollar defaulted bond pile. |
|
05-05-26 leopardo
| True Pana a lot of propone investi h in Bunds Treasuries and not looking at Venny!!! |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
Leo, with Hormuz closed many countries not only need oil now to run their economies, they will need to triple their stategic reserves.
Veni is the story best in town, snd people not even looking at it :-( |
|
05-05-26 leopardo
| Bonds flying Carib…both Vnz and Pdvsa |
|
05-05-26 spal
| Canadian oil sands schtocks very highly bid |
|
05-05-26 spal
Looks like one of the fast boats was a dhow ... this is a tragedy and looks like a major slip up and while this will be rightly sensationalized I think we are about to see the US double down.
There is no "off-ramp" that doesn't involve a massive loss of U.S. face or a global energy collapse.
By doubling down, the administration is betting that they can break the Iranian regime’s back before the domestic U.S. political cost of $7/gallon gasoline becomes unbearable. The UAE is the "collateral" in this bet.
Hard hats will be required in Dubai. |
|
05-05-26 carib
OFAC authorises services to Veny to prepare for debt restructuring.
PDVsa bonds UP. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| Putin is now in a bunker. |
|
05-05-26 spal
The Location: Putin has reportedly abandoned the Kremlin and his Valdai residence, moving his primary command center to a fortified, modernized bunker complex in Krasnodar Krai (Southern Russia).
Validated. |
|
05-05-26 spal
ranslated from Arabic
#Syria | The Syrian General Security launches a campaign of random arrests against Uzbek fighters in the towns of Kafr Jalis and Kafraya north of the city of #Idlib.
Uzbek fighters in Syria ... strange days and likely to get stranger. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| The US now IMO have virtually no alternative but to double down in this fight ... if so the UAE is a sitting duck. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| Vic - all oil infra and safe e&p are up today. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| ISM 84.6 ... this is the signal. |
|
05-05-26 spal
|
05-05-26 spal
The Backwardation Mirage
The $40 spread between June ’26 and December ’26 is acting as a "False Signal."
The Trap: Speculators see the $60–$70 long-dated prices and assume "the market knows peace is coming."
The Reality: This is actually a liquidity trap. No one wants to hold the front month because the "carry cost" and volatility are insane. The sell-off today is a result of "tourist" capital fleeing the volatility, while the structural supply shock is only getting deeper as Fujairah remains offline. |
|
05-05-26 spal
spal, so why is oil down?
===
Spot ... look at the strip etc. Spot is a very deceptive gauge at the moment. |
|
05-05-26 victor
| spal, so why is oil down? |
|
05-05-26 spal
The UAE’s "Breaking Point"
For the UAE, the PGSA is the final insult to their Sovereign Strategic Platform.
By claiming "Strait Authority," Iran is essentially telling Dubai and Abu Dhabi that their ports are now "vassal nodes" under Iranian regulatory oversight.
The Response: This bureaucratization likely accelerates the UAE’s Offensive Readiness. Expect the UAE to argue that the PGSA is a "functional annexation" of the Strait, providing the legal cover needed for a strike on the Iranian islands or coastal batteries to "restore international transit." |
|
05-05-26 spal
Colores welcome the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA)"
By creating a "Strait Authority," Iran is attempting to overwrite the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) principle of "Innocent Passage." They are asserting that the Strait is "Internal Waters" rather than an international waterway, effectively turning a global chokepoint into a domestic toll road. |
|
05-05-26 spal
target the Burj Khalifa
Checking now if I can get the rights for "pay per view" |
|
05-05-26 spal
If the UAE hits the islands, Iran has already signaled it will target the Burj Khalifa or Jebel Ali Port with its remaining long-range ballistic missiles (Fattah-1/2), bypassing air defenses through sheer saturation.
Pass the popcorn ... |
|
05-05-26 spal
Desert Falcons
A senior Emirati official reportedly told Israeli counterparts, "The Iranian regime has begun attacking us—we will strike back."
Satellite imagery from Al Dhafra Air Base shows that the UAE Air Force’s F-16E/F Block 60 "Desert Falcons" have been moved from hardened shelters to the flight line. This is a "Hot Readiness" state, indicating they are armed with long-range stand-off munitions (likely Black Shaheen cruise missiles) for potential strikes on Iranian coastal launch sites.
Two Baynunah-class corvettes (specialized for littoral warfare) have been tracked moving north from Mina Saqr. Their positioning puts them within striking distance of the disputed islands (Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb) currently occupied by the IRGC.
Likelihood that UAE enters the fight now 85%
|
|
05-05-26 spal
IRAN'S JOINT MILITARY COMMAND SAYS IT HAS NOT CARRIED OUT ANY ATTACK AGAINST THE UAE IN RECENT DAYS
===
Quantum gambits now spreading to Iran denying attacks despite making them. |
|
05-05-26 spal
Turkey Shoot at Pollos Habibi
Fratercula Arctica #Freedom&Truth🇬🇧✝️XX
@OilPaul
·
1h
Replying to @afneil and @TimesRadio
Andrew, the Iranian fast boats (aka death traps) are being obliterated by Apache helicopter gunships, in something our American cousins call, "a turkey shoot." |
|
05-05-26 spal
Pollos Habibi located in Teheran :-)
===
Best of the Day!!
|
|
05-05-26 carib
Very good too for holders of Micron (MU)
|
|
05-05-26 carib
The hubris of Iran's leadership will prevent it from reaching a deal despite its disadvantageous position, INSS Iran researcher Beni Sabti said, arguing that Israel and the US have exhausted all options and should return to war.
“The Iranian hubris is overflowing,” Sabti said. “They do not understand the hint. In the end, missiles do not fire themselves, and a nuclear program does not fire itself. These are evil people who have completely seized power.”
“We are in a temporary situation in which, in the end, religious rule has become military rule, and that is somewhat worse than what existed before, even though it was already black, and now it is blacker than black.” |
|
05-05-26 carib
| Not bad for owners of Samsung Electronics (like my humble self) |
|
05-05-26 pillz
| now it is +6.15% , taking profit ... |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Pollos Habibi located in Teheran :-) |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Pilly, something abt. deal between Apple and Samsung & Intc. |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Vic, yes but abandoned at some point. |
|
05-05-26 pillz
| wha the hell is going on EWY , each day now we are at +5.5% |
|
05-05-26 victor
pana, did you watch better call saul?
|
|
05-05-26 victor
pana, Gus owner of "pollos habibi"
los pollos hermanos? :-) |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Gus owner of "pollos habibi" |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
| Soxl on fire, Tuco till we find Gus :-)) |
|
05-05-26 victor
| so... why is oil down today? |
|
05-05-26 spal
MarketPulse India
@MktPulseIndia
·
4m
United Arab Emirates says its air defenses are responding to new Iranian missile and drone attacks |
|
05-05-26 spal
This is exactly why TRMD (Torm) is opening strongly. TORM doesn't need oil to be $114 in December to thrive; it just needs the friction to persist.
As long as the "Back End" of the strip stays low, refiners won't build inventories—they will buy "hand-to-mouth."
"Hand-to-mouth" buying means more frequent, urgent, and complex voyages.
More voyages = more ton-miles = higher yields for TORM. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| Vahidi here, Vahidi there, Vahidi everywhere ... |
|
05-05-26 spal
|
05-05-26 spal
| Energy, Energy Shipping, Energy Infra, Pipes ... |
|
05-05-26 spal
Continuing to add ...
I am in a good mood.
Dividentum ex Chao: The TORM Tractus
In the 2026 maritime theater, TRMD represents the ultimate "Vahidi Premium"—a pure play on Physical Scarcity. While the "Ghost Economy" of digital tokens and SaaS multiples hits the Physical Wall, TORM captures the kinetic energy of global friction.
The Ton-Mile Multiplier: Kinetic interdiction in the Strait of Hormuz forces systemic rerouting. Longer voyages to "Safe Ports" like Salalah effectively shrink global fleet capacity, gapping spot rates higher.
Fujairah Friction: With the world’s primary bunkering hub under fire, refined products must travel further, turning regional incendium into record cash flow.
The Yield Fortress: In an era of ISM 84.6 and "Capital Shallowing," TRMD’s ~8.8% dividend yield serves as a sovereign safe-haven for capital fleeing dilution.
The Verdict: TORM doesn't just navigate the crisis; it owns the pipes during a systemic plumbing failure. In this landscape, scarcity is the ultimate leverage. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| TRMD ... doing the heavy lifting here boys |
|
05-05-26 spal
|
05-05-26 spal
|
05-05-26 spal
Iran looks like breaking bad tv series ... LOL
"Vahidi" = "Tuco" |
|
05-05-26 panasonic
"Vahidi"
Iran looks like breaking bad tv series, you kill one boss and then find out there was a more powerful man above him.
After Vahidi is gone, a more dangerous "specialist" will be named.
|
|
05-05-26 carib
| Impression is TACO once again, but we shall see.. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| UAE F-16 and Mirage squadrons are reportedly in "Hot Standby" for retaliatory strikes. |
|
05-05-26 spal
| The U.S. is within 6 to 12 hours of implementing a "Short and Powerful" wave of strikes to break the negotiating deadlock. The only thing standing between the present moment and a full-scale naval war is President Trump’s final authorization, which senior officials indicate is "resting on a single Iranian thermal signature." |
|
05-05-26 spal
| Asset Positioning (Complete): Carrier Strike Groups 3, 10, and 12 are now in "Active Launch Boxes" within the Gulf of Oman and Northern Arabian Sea. Over 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, including F-16s and A-10 "Warthogs," are currently providing the top-cover for Project Freedom. |
|
05-05-26 spal
The Sledgehammer:
The Three Pillars of the Planned "Sledgehammer"
Systemic Naval Eradication: This is not a "warning shot" strategy. The goal is the total and intentional destruction of Iran’s naval infrastructure, including Kilo-class and midget submarine pens in Bandar Abbas and the "Missile Cities" buried along the coastline.
Kharg Island Neutralization: For the first time, US planners are discussing the permanent destruction of Iran’s oil export infrastructure on Kharg Island. This is "Total Economic Warfare" designed to crash the regime's solvency within 72 hours.
The "Uranium Snatch": As reported by Axios, a Tier-1 Special Operations mission is currently "Green Lit" for staging. Its objective is the immediate seizure and extraction of roughly 450kg of 60% enriched uranium from hardened sites to prevent Vahidi from crossing the nuclear threshold during the chaos of the naval strike. |
|
05-05-26 spal
Ahmad Vahidi is no longer just a cabinet minister; he has emerged as the de facto military and strategic lead of Iran.
In the current wartime environment, the IRGC has sidelined the traditional civilian government. Vahidi is not just running a branch of the military; he is presiding over the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) deliberations that dictate both the kinetic engagement in the Strait and the terms of diplomatic stalling.
Effectively turning Iran into a military junta with a religious veneer.
The man currently "calling the shots" in Tehran is a specialist in asymmetric warfare and high-stakes brinkmanship.
If Vahidi is in charge, there is a 0% chance Iran will simply "stand down" as Trump ordered. Vahidi’s entire doctrine is based on the idea that Western powers are "physically fragile" and will retreat if the cost in blood or oil becomes too high.
This guy is NOT going to negotiate.
This kicks it up a notch or two.
|
|
Board
