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09-02-25 savo
argie bonds are tanking...
Morgan Stanley Says Buy Argentina Debt in Moderation Before Vote
2025-09-02 14:51:59 GMT
By Maria Elena Vizcaino
(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley is recommending clients buy
Argentine assets ahead of elections over the next two months,
citing attractive valuations following a recent selloff in debt
and stocks.
* “We move Argentina to a like stance and recommend buying into
the recent weakness, though only in moderate size given likely
still heavy positioning and the existence of more severe
downside scenarios,” strategists led by Simon Waever wrote in a
note on Tuesday
* Prefers dollar bonds, particularly notes due in 2041
* “Our base case sees Argentina regaining market access post-
elections with spreads near 600bp and yields below 10%, implying
~11 points of price upside or ~20% total return by year-end”
* Remains overweight the country’s equity market based on
expectations the reform agenda will gain speed into 2026
* Likes Banco Galicia, Vista and Loma Negra |
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09-02-25 savo
Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said the US military targeted a boat carrying drugs from Venezuela, touting the administration’s success after deploying naval vessels to the Caribbean as part of a push to stop narco-trafficking.
‘We just over the last few minutes, literally, shot out a boat, a drug-carrying boat, a lot of drugs in that boat,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “These came out of Venezuela — and coming out very heavily from Venezuela. A lot of things are coming out of Venezuela. So we took it out, and you’ll get to see that after this meeting is over.”
The White House and Pentagon didn’t immediately respond to questions seeking more information. Soon after Trump spoke, Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote a social media post saying the military had conducted a lethal strike in the southern Caribbean “against a drug vessel which had departed from Venezuela and was being operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization.”
Last month the Defense Department announced it was sending more than 4,000 sailors and Marines to the seas around Latin America as part of Trump’s stepped-up push against drug cartels. On Monday, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro accused Rubio of trying to push the US into a massacre with the deployment |
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09-02-25 victor
At least 54 people were shot in Chicago over the weekend, 8 people were killed. The last two weekends were similar. Chicago is the worst and most dangerous city in the World, by far. Pritzker needs help badly, he just doesn’t know it yet. I will solve the crime problem fast, just like I did in DC. Chicago will be safe again, and soon. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
CHICAGO IS THE MURDER CAPITAL OF THE WORLD! |
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09-02-25 victor
| pana, right. one of the things that need to be fixed. |
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09-02-25 savo
the catastrophic consequence of Draghi's "whatever it takes"
How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next
The most dramatic case is France. The French government’s debt has soared above 114% of GDP in 2025, driven in part by persistent large deficits covered cheaply under the ECB’s umbrella. Attempts at fiscal consolidation have always been timid and thus have failed to achieve lasting discipline, with ECB support always in the background as a failsafe. The result is a mounting sovereign risk premium: French bonds, for the first time in modern euro history, now yield more than comparably rated Spanish, Greek, or Italian bonds, signalling the market’s discomfort with France’s debt trajectory even in the age of ECB backstops. The fact that this rise in spreads happens in the middle of a large stimulus plan (Next Generation EU) and rate cuts is even more alarming.
The so-called anti-fragmentation instrument, meant as a crisis containment tool, is inherently a mechanism of “joint liability without joint control”. It binds prudent euro members to the fiscal choices of their less disciplined partners, socialising risk but nationalising rewards. With this facility, markets can no longer efficiently discriminate; anxiety about debt sustainability that once spurred necessary reforms is suppressed rather than solved. Furthermore, it is like debt mutualisation with no real obligations.
The “whatever it takes” philosophy, so lauded by ECB leaders, is now a double-edged sword: it has replaced accountability with dependency and emboldened fiscal laxity.
Central bank purchases and the suppression of yields to nominal negative territory are, by definition, the worst case of debt monetisation. The ECB is a loss-making entity because it purchases bonds even when they are exceedingly expensive. The ECB’s accumulated unrealised paper losses on its asset purchase programmes are estimated at €800 billion, vastly exceeding its capital, according to IERF.
These policies are disguising solvency problems even if dressed in the language of emergency support. This removes the ultimate deterrent to government overspending: the cost of money itself. The long-term result is an environment in which euro area governments, aware that refinancing is guaranteed at low cost even during difficult times, accumulate increasingly larger debts—making the bloc vulnerable to even minor shocks in confidence, inflation, or governance. This situation could likely harm the euro in the future if Germany falls into the same trap as France, a scenario that seems probable given the latest policy announcements.
If you read newspapers in France, this perverse incentive is very evident. Instead of talking about the unsustainable spending path, many demand more central bank purchases and stimulus. Furthermore, some demand the acceleration of the digital euro to implement even more aggressive monetary measures.
The unfolding French debt crisis is a direct byproduct of these policies. France’s spending has persistently outstripped growth, yet the promise of perennial ECB support delayed any reckoning. Now, as risk premia rise and markets test the ECB’s resolve, the eurozone faces the bitter consequences of a policy era marked by moral hazard and eroded fiscal discipline.
While ECB activism may buy temporary stability, its long-term cost is clear: higher debts, private sector weakening, currency debasement, and the erosion of incentives for responsible policymaking. Unless Europe rethinks its reliance on central bank eternal stimuli and restores mechanisms for market discipline, today’s French crisis may be only one of many fiscal storms ahead. The success of the euro as a reserve currency was based on the pillar of fiscal prudence and responsibility. Lack of fiscal discipline always means a risk for the currency.
Central banks cannot print solvency, and the lack of structural reforms and excessive easing policies can end up destroying the euro.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/how-european-central-bank-engineered-french-debt-crisis-and-next |
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09-02-25 panasonic
Vic, indeed totally surreal that US can't produce it's own generics here.
Has to do with costly lawsuits against pharma, day that is capped it can be done...meabwhile... |
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09-02-25 panasonic
"dice que para la fecha de octubre cuando se dé el matrimonio Padrino ya estara Preso en una cárcel de EEUU 🇺🇸"
In'shallah:-)) |
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