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08-23-17  pillz



Carib, it remain me the navy , when we needed to make a bunkering ... or to fill our bunker with fuel ...

08-23-17  Merlino

Ortega reminds me the movie "war of the roses"
Pana....sack and go, as you have said

Perhaps one of the reasons for Citi to finish payment intermediation was precisely doubts about origin of funds. This just a speculation out of my head.

08-23-17  panasonic

Ortega reminds me the movie "war of the roses"

"Venezuela's ousted chief prosecutor says she is traveling to
Brazil to show the world evidence that President Nicolas Maduro has
been involved in serious acts of corruption."

and Maduro heading to Moscow

"Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said he expects to visit
Russia soon for meetings with the government of Russian President
Vladimir Putin."

08-23-17  panasonic

Merlino, highly probable...but still a challenge to wash money
for clip distributions

08-23-17  Merlino

Not that bad if Veni´s oil production is 15% higher than officially declared by "bunkering" or whatever....perhaps they are now partially or totally paying coupons from this income now that Citibank intermediation is gone.

08-23-17  panasonic

Carib, veni haramis doing same...smoke screens are part of
the show...remember they come from the school of narcos,
so it's common to use decoys as distraction.

08-23-17  carib

Panas: I am currently in Harvard, discussing international taxation.
This morning we were discussing with some nigerian tax directors,
who introduced the matter of "bunkering". I actually did not know the term,
and asked for explanations. It actually means stealing oil, and selling it illegally.
around 15% of total oil production, in nigeria, goes down that way.
They have their own "Harami ways", apparently


08-23-17  panasonic

savo, all is harami biz...smoke-screen while they do their "thing"

08-22-17  savo


**an oil tanker by the name of Karvounis has been in limbo in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana for several weeks.**

Lets put things in context....

Most Crude oil is transported in two kind of carriers... Suezmax... 1MM barrels... and VLCCs... 2MM barrels...

PDVSa exports OFFICIALLY lets say 1.5MM barrels a day... approximately 547MM barrels.. the equivalent of 547 Suezmax... or 273 VLCCs.

It happens... that one...... one... again... one of those 547 Suezmax... or 273 VLCCs... is unable to unload.. because for whatever reason the guy that chartered it is unable to provide an LC and every news outlet makes a fuss about it...

Have these guys lost their minds???

08-22-17  mniam


> how can the ecb normalise monetary policy if europe public sector and individuals have more debt than ever...

are you interested in pushing an ideological point or in making money? if your point is ideological, please feel free to whatever. if your point is to make money...


> spain has 3 times more debt than when QE started...

yes, but it isn't especially high by EU standards

> private sector mortgage debt at an historic high.

yes, but so is private sector profitability

> normalisation will kill consumption and put the public sectors into unsustainable deficits

not really sure that that is the case... rates are extra low... if they go from 1% to 5%... yes it is a 500% rise but that would still be a historically low rate... and the incredible discovery of modern age capitalism is that the economy is able to handle much higher levels of debt as long as proper legal infrastructure is in place. eg in india, where you can never be sure of the value of a lien, it is hard to borrow money at all, in europe, where the lien is perfected... it is easy because lenders are pretty sure to be able to seize the property rights.

08-22-17  panasonic

thanks Pilly.

08-22-17  pillz

there was a trading at 80 at noon:




Trade value


12:22:39 88.00 200,000 176,000.00 O
12:09:50 80.00 510,000 408,000.00 O

08-22-17  pillz

08-22-17  pillz

Pana fyi :

Debt investors

Provident Financial plc currently has five public bonds in issue as follows:

08-22-17  pillz

Pana, I will not look at it , till we are at min 20% ytm

08-22-17  panasonic

Bonjour colores,

Pilly is Provident toasted on you are watching to buy?
ISIN pls tia.

08-22-17  pillz

Provident Financial extended its decline in late morning trading in London, with its shares collapsing more than 70 per cent and its debt coming under heavy pressure as well, after it issued its second profit warning in three months.

The group’s shares crashed 74.2 per cent to £4.48, the lowest level since 1995, according to Bloomberg data. In a sign of how abrupt the drop has been, it traded as high as £32.65 earlier this year.

Provident’s chief executive stepped down as the country’s biggest subprime lender halted its interim dividend and it warned of troubles in its “home collection” business.

Tuesday’s collapse in Provident’s equity sapped some £1.9bn in market value. In the absence of a dramatic turnround, the scope of the fall may yank Provident from the large-cap FTSE 100 down toward the bottom of the FTSE 250.

Provident’s debt was also hit hard. The yield on its 10-year bond maturing in 2019 spiked to 12.6 per cent from 1.9 per cent on Monday. Yields move in the opposite direction of prices.


some UK subprime debt , still at 13% yield , coming from 2% ??

08-22-17  savo

i am an interest rate ignoramus but i do not understand this:

***as it goes about normalising monetary policy***

how can the ecb normalise monetary policy if europe public sector and individuals have more debt than ever...

spain has 3 times more debt than when QE started... others have not increase debt that much but the numbers are still staggering...and most countries are still running a fiscal deficit.

Add private sector mortgage debt at an historic high.

A normalisation will kill consumption and put the public sectors into unsustainable deficits...

I have no clue how this can be squared.

08-22-17  pillz

All eurozone governments’ debt costs compare unfavourably to those of ultra-safe Germany, but that spread is important for none more than Italy. As the country prepares for elections which are set to take place sometime before next spring, the prospect of a renewed bout of euroscepticism is beginning to loom in investors’ minds. So the Italy-Germany spread is a useful indicator of how markets view that political risk.

The measure has been plenty higher earlier this year – hitting 211 basis points in mid-April in advance of the first round of the French presidential election, as investors braced for the possibility of a win by the eurosceptic far-right politician Marine Le Pen.

The spread ticked upwards again in early June before a European Central Bank meeting at which its president Mario Draghi acknowledged that the eurozone economy was experiencing a solid improvement in conditions – something that led investors to anticipate he would begin to scale back the bloc’s bond-buying programme sooner than they had previously expected.

And Italian-German spreads rose once more later that month when Mr Draghi appeared to indicate that he was about to embark on a wind-down of the stimulus programme – a message the ECB has since somewhat softened.

With the ECB engaged in a delicate dance with markets as it goes about normalising monetary policy, Mr Draghi’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole may or may not become a turning point. So the Italy-Germany spread is well worth keeping an eye on.

08-22-17  pillz

Nomura Securities has been watching these developments closely. Morden thinks that the sanctions program will intensify next year.

"The Maduro administration has already crossed the line with an illegitimate Constituent Assembly that further consolidates power and undermines the opposition-controlled legislature," she says. So much for majority rule in Venezuela. "The rigged local elections and consistent persecution of the opposition politicians should further motivate retaliation from the U.S. on their sanctions policy with the latent threat of sector sanctions next year the main constraint against a sustainable recovery in PDVSA bond prices."

if they default , Maduro is gone, and it looks like the bonds will go up and not down ??

08-22-17  Hernie

Good ol' Russ


Venezuelan Oil Exports Wane Ahead of $3.53 Billion Debt Payment

Crude oil shipments dropped 24 percent in first half of August
Falling exports add to concerns about capacity for repayment

By Lucia Kassai

(Bloomberg) -- Exports of Venezuelan crude, the main source of income for the cash-strapped nation, dropped 24 percent in the first half of August, heightening concerns that the country won’t be able to make $3.53 billion in upcoming debt payments.
Tankers loaded 1.27 million barrels a day of Venezuelan oil from Aug. 1 to Aug. 15, down from 1.68 million in the same period last year, according to U.S. Customs and ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The loadings from the ports of Jose and Puerto La Cruz and the offshore platform FSO Nabarima together account for more than 65 percent of the country’s oil exports.

VENEZUELA TANKER TRACKER: Crude Oil Loadings Drop 24% Aug. 1-15

Home to the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela produces a fifth as much crude as Saudi Arabia or the U.S. as a wave of nationalizations and payment delays have cut investment and maintenance at Venezuela’s oil fields. Output fell to a 14-year low in July and there are signs it could drop even further, said Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets. 

“The whole machine is coming apart,” he said in a phone interview from Caracas. “It creates more uncertainty about their ability to make a heavy debt payment in October and November.”

Venezuela and its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA are due to pay $3.53 billion in principal and interest in October and November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Oil exports are the main source of revenue after Russian oil giant Rosneft PJSC, which has been the most active lender to PDVSA in the past three years, indicated it doesn’t plan to advance any more money. Rosneft has loaned PDVSA about $6 billion since 2014 in exchange for crude oil and products. 

08-22-17  pillz

Fuel? Check. Sailors? Check. Cargo? Yep, a million barrels of Venezuelan crude.

Unfortunately, an oil tanker by the name of Karvounis has been in limbo in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Louisiana for several weeks. It is a modern vessel and isn’t suffering from mechanical issues.

The buyer, a U.S. refiner that often purchases Venezuelan cargoes, has been awaiting a letter of credit guaranteeing payment to the owner of the oil. The ship has been chartered by a middleman according to Hellenic Shipping News.

With sanctions being mulled and widespread belief that Venezuela and its state-owned oil company will soon default on billions of dollars in debt, getting the routine, short-term credits has been problematic.

The owner of the world’s largest proven crude reserves, once among the wealthiest nations in South America, is discovering that there is an even more valuable commodity than oil, and one more easily taken for granted: money.

08-22-17  carib

PDVsa already traded down well below 30 in february 2016 despite the absence of default.
In case there is a default.. I guess it would depend on the circumstances in which such event could happen.. but I would say convergence to low-mid 20s.

I do expect payments in the fall to be more likely than not, that said.

08-22-17  panasonic

dollars are for haramis, but if you (not-harami) dare to increase
prices will get punished

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