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07-23-19  carib

Probably that is the right answer.
If you can afford 5k a month.. no point in staying in CCS.
If you make 500K a month.. maybe you have to stay because of the peculiar biz you run there requires your presence.. and you can afford the Gurkhas.
bottom line: if you can leave.. leave.

07-23-19  spal

otherwise why stay? ... Anecdotally I hear that the older generation with access to dollars are ok holed up in their enclaves and that much of the younger middle class is abroad earning hard currency and helping with remittances. Obviously the lower class has now degenerated into the traditional favella that rings Caracas, but in Latin America there is great experience in managing slums.

From what I hear also there is plenty of black money circulating that will keep the regime kicking along for the foreseeable future.

07-23-19  panasonic

In Caracas you need $50k for the Bodyguards Army to protect you

payable only if you are making big bucks, otherwise why stay?

07-23-19  Alex

In Caracas you need $50k for the Bodyguards Army to protect you.
Sad but true.


07-23-19  panasonic

Carib, if you have $5K month ... easier to migrate & live a normal
life...I could live better with $5K in Madrid than Veni...bcz $5K
in Veni won't buy you a better quality of life.

Now $1K won't buy you a good life in Madrid but ii you have own
apt. and cars in Veni $1K you can cover the month (as things
stand tdy)

07-23-19  carib

Pill: I presume you live "well" in europe.. spending 25K a month.
hence, the question if one can "live well" in Veny.. on 1/5 of that amount..
is not really crazy, I guess.

07-23-19  panasonic

Pilly, yep blackout :-(

07-23-19  pillz

Widespread blackout hits Venezuela, first major outage since March

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-power/widespread-blackout-hits-venezuela-first-major-outage-since-march-idUSKCN1UH2GA?il=0

07-23-19  pillz

how much do you spend per month?

//

about 20 to 25k / month Euros

07-23-19  carib

I wrote "live well", not "survive".
Of course, the idea was to consider a family, not just an isolated individual.

07-23-19  Alex

Spend €1.500 for myself.

A lot more for family.

07-23-19  carib

Panas: interesting piece on china influence in Panama.
Also interesting remark of Maduro opting for brute power, dropping ideological masks.

07-23-19  carib

Pill: how much do you spend per month?
the 5K question was quite simple.
In expensive countries, with 5K a month you are poor, in practice.

07-22-19  panasonic

and this explains the lack of interest from W/H to solve things

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/dear-aoc-and-bernie-sanders-socialism-destroyed-once-rich-country-68252

07-22-19  panasonic

different topic, same roots

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/commentary-chinas-investments-influence-panama-163250712.html

07-22-19  panasonic

Savo, USA is completely out ... Russia fully in... we'll see more
twits here and there, Putin smelled fear and went for yugular.


07-22-19  panasonic

Carib, not sure on question..basically those with some skills now
have vehicles to earn strong currency and process will make them
slowly become consumers again, rentistas on the other hand are
dealing with strong inflation in dollars, living with 100$ was
artificial given that Veni doesn't produce one bean of coffee.


07-22-19  savo

pana.. yes about Maduro... but i am more interested in the USA side...

what kind of discussions do they have about veni....?

everything that could go wrong with the strategy went wrong ...

Who is running point these days?

07-22-19  panasonic

Savo, no dialogue...dollarization will do the work, now Maduro
understands he is not Chavez, cannot win fair and clean elections
so has to depoliticize streets, and that is what they are doing
right now...

07-22-19  savo

pana.. interesting what you've seen in your visit to the jungle.

I wonder what can of dialogue they are having in the US among abrams.. pompeo... bolton... defense (whoever is running the pentagon this month) and Trump...

Not only the strategy has not worked... but it has fired back with more russians on the ground more narcos.. more terrorist..

do they still expect the army to turn... the russians to leave...credible elections to take place... maduro to gracefully hand over power to Guaido...?

07-22-19  pillz

can you live well with 5.000 $ a month

//

what a question ?? in Veny ??

if one can't live well with 1.000 $ / month , how those who earn only 100 $ / month do ??

sorry, I was last time in Veny 4 times about 45 years ago :-)

07-22-19  carib

Panas: can you live well with 5.000 $ a month, with no need of bodyguards?

07-22-19  panasonic

hello back from Jungle...

5KB, those troops actually in Veni, can be seen all over place...
Moscu saying what is already done, as should be.

Economy in process of dollarization, skilled people making $$,
rentistas and people from remesas in very bad mood bcz cannot live
with $100 anymore, more traffic, supermarkets well stocked,
politics not part of discussion, individuals focused in finding
ways to make $$$.

Don't see US military intervation nor elections anytime soon.

07-22-19  5000bath

courtesy: bischof
Center for strategic and international studies
"The further the situation in Venezuela erodes, the larger the criminal enterprises of narcotrafficking and human trafficking will grow. Cocaine exports have increased exponentially from South America over the past five years, and as the United States is the number one consumer of cocaine in the world, it should have serious concerns over its national security and health of its own citizens. The Venezuelan territories which serve as hubs for criminal organizations also encourage the rise of nonstate actors to function within the country, enabling these groups to carry out terrorist operations with ever-growing proximity to the United States. In addition, allowing Russia and China to wield influence in the region, particularly within a country such as Venezuela which has not taken any precautions against the presence of foreign actors within its borders, will allow both Russia and China to exert more power and influence and aim to end the profound influence the United States has enjoyed in the region. As the crisis in Venezuela deteriorates in the United States’ own backyard, it is of extreme importance that the United States pay attention to the developments and assess the implications for the region as a whole."
https://www.csis.org/analysis/identifying-and-responding-threats-venezuelan-criminal-state

07-22-19  ruspan


UK foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt says a maritime coalition of EU countries will be formed to ensure freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

Now it is starting to make more sense, as expected :-)

07-22-19  carib



“I’m extremely worried about elements in the United States seeking to draw us into actions about which we might have reservations,” said Alistair Burt, a Conservative MP and former Middle East minister. “Keeping Iran in that [nuclear] deal and working with European partners is in all of our interests. It’s disturbing, but it is possible that there would be some who would want to break into that and divide us.”

07-22-19  carib

Chinese corporate debt to GDP ratio is already very high by international standards – at 168 per cent in 2017 – and is expected to start rising again as nominal GDP growth declines towards the 8 per cent from an unusually high rate of over 11 per cent in 2017, Fitch said.

07-22-19  pillz

Ships urged to alert navies before sailing through Strait of Hormuz

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-shipping/ships-urged-to-alert-navies-before-sailing-through-strait-of-hormuz-idUSKCN1UH23T?il=0

07-22-19  CAC

Thanks, Carib

07-22-19  5000bath

Newsweek
Specialist Russian Troops May Be Sent to Venezuela to Protect Against American 'Economic Terror,' Moscow Says On 7/22/19 at 5:48 AM EDT
a senior Russian diplomat has said the Kremlin is prepared to send more troops to Venezuela to support President Nicolas Maduro in his face-off with the U.S.-backed opposition trying to depose him.

Speaking in Caracas, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters that troops previously sent to the oil-rich nation have completed their assignment and that Moscow stands ready to launch repeat missions, the state-backed Tass news agency reported.

The soldiers were reportedly deployed to help protect the regime against cyber attacks, service Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems and help repair the damaged national power grid, which Maduro has claimed was a target of U.S. covert sabotage operations

"I see no reason to keep discussing the topic of Russian military specialists endlessly," he said. "It is not a problem." Asked whether the Kremlin would send more Russian specialists to Venezuela in future, Ryabkov simply answered, "Yes."

Ryabkov also hit out at the U.S. over its continued pressure on Maduro. The White House is doubling down on economic sanctions in the hope of pushing Maduro from office. Thus far the Trump administration's strategy seems to have failed, unable to convince Venezuela's powerful military to abandon the president.

"U.S. attempts to topple the legitimate government of Venezuela have become a clear illustration of international law violations," Ryabkov said. "Economic terror has been unleashed against the legitimate government of Venezuela.

"The legitimate government's property was persistently transferred to the self-proclaimed acting president. The capabilities of the financial, oil and mining sectors have been seriously limited by the introduction of sanctions."

The diplomat claimed that U.S. sanctions had deprived Venezuela of some $100 billion. He also stressed the Russian view that Maduro's presidential legitimacy is "out of the question."

https://www.newsweek.com/specialist-russian-troops-venezuela-american-economic-terror-moscow-1450426

take a few 100 B US-$ worlwide the Casino bankruptcy is just a
lukewarm

07-22-19  carib

CAC :corporate debt.

07-22-19  CAC

Carib
What do you mean by China's worrying debt?


This?
Wikipedia
As of October 2018, it stands at approximately CN¥ 36 trillion (US$ 5.2 trillion),[1] equivalent to about 47.6% of GDP

07-22-19  CAC

Carib
What do you mean by China's worrying debt?


This?
Wikipedia
As of October 2018, it stands at approximately CN¥ 36 trillion (US$ 5.2 trillion),[1] equivalent to about 47.6% of GDP

07-22-19  amigo-latino

_Six months on, Juan Guaidó supporters hang on to fading hope in Venezuela


Venezuela’s self-proclaimed interim president, Juan Guaidó, at a march against the government on the anniversary of Venezuelan independence.

Sol Castro Sánchez was a picture of elation as she took to the streets of Caracas in the days after Juan Guaidó launched his dramatic bid to topple Nicolás Maduro on 23 January..........
“At that time, I felt you could reach out and you could grasp it,” the 63-year-old caraqueña admitted this week. “I don’t have that feeling any more.”


Some have already given up on the 35-year-old politician, amid reports that even Donald Trump – Guaidó’s key backer – is losing interest in his crusade


The commitment of another crucial regional supporter, Jair Bolsonaro, is also in doubt, after Brazil’s far-right president recently dropped a mention of Guaidó from a speech for fear of upsetting Russia’s Vladimir Putin who, along with China’s Xi Jinping, continues to support Maduro. (On Friday, Bolsonaro said he hoped Russia would “help resolve the Venezuela question”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/six-months-on-juan-guaido-supporters-hang-on-to-fading-hope-in-venezuela

07-22-19  Alex

while US / ISrael did kill people in Iran repeatedly.


Iranians in Syria and Iranian nuclear scientist by Kurdish agents before




07-22-19  Alex

Moderate Rouhani

BS


07-22-19  ruspan

Pillz: "...because they are a bunch of fanatics … , no need a lot of intelligent in this case …"

Very weak argument.



07-22-19  patient-trader

Iran has two leaders, a democratically elected president, the moderate Rouhani, and a religiously appointed supreme leader, Khamenei. The religious guys are fanatics.

There is competition between the leaders. As long as Iran was on reconciliation course with the west the moderates were strengthened. With the US cancelling the agreement, the radicals have taken over.

Iran has been very much strengthened in recent years due to the elimination of Saddam. Since then Iran has gained influence in Iraq and Syria.

So this entire situation is due to US incompetence. Now this is continued by provoking a conflict with Iran.

It will be very interesting how this plays out because Trump doesnt want war, and this passiveness encourages the Iranian radicals to stage stunts as we have seen them. They want Trump to roll back as he did in North Korea after missile launches. as we know Trump respects only strong leaders and has already invited the Iranians for talk.

Clearly the Iranian strategy makes a lot of sense and may succeed if played carefully.



07-22-19  ruspan

Amigo: The fatwa was an ugly intention - but intention only, while US / ISrael did kill people in Iran repeatedly. (Scientists)


07-22-19  ruspan

Carib: "Btw: I do not know enough to conclude it's a desired casus belli. that pre-supposes a coherent plan, and I am not sure there is one."

Plans are always present, it is the job of the military in the peace times. But in a current state of affairs we can very well be in a situation when the fraction trying to start the conflict have nothing to do with any kind of planning or the military themselves.

"Even harder to understand the UK position, given the second clown expected to take office in 48-72 hours. The term is not intended as derogatory. It is the way UK cartoonists see BoJo now."


Iran is a big country, 4 times Iraq population - and with access to a vital communication lines. Neither UK nor US would be able to deal with it alone.
- I think the calculation is to involve NATO in case it happens.

"I deeply dislike Trump, but the US remains a 15 trillion economy with some growth, attracting millions of immigrants. China is in decent shape (with more worrying debt)
Russia is just a medium size militarist country with many natural resources and a clever autocrat."


Absolutely. Except the ¨militarist2 country spends on its military times less than peace loving US, and the autocrat have more popular vote than the democrat" :-)

No need to discuss much with you Carib - we just sit and watch, I hope you will have enough memory to recall the conversation.

07-22-19  amigo-latino

US and UK had a reason and justification to take out the ayatollahs when the Supreme leader of Iran put a fatwa on the life of Salmon Rushdie, UK national and US permanent resident.
Terrorism against a UK citizen and a US permanent resident.

In stead, UK opted to take the easy out: giving Rushdie 24 hr protection.
And US publishing houses, bailed out of publishing contracts for Satanic Verses.

Now,, I do not think that there is any valid justification. It is the US who escalated the situation, and UK has allowed itself to be drafted by US into the confrontation.


07-22-19  Alex

Should have annihilated the Khamenei gang long ago.

07-22-19  pillz

Of course, the Mullahs regime in Iran is evil, but there are many factions, as always.
If war was an easy, effective solution, it would have already been waged and won.


//

NO Carib, a war is very dangerous till the Mullahs have to say … the ultimate solution would be a change in the ruling in Iran ,therefore the US hope to do it without a war …

don't forget , a war is dangerous for all Iranians … , and nobody have something against them ...

07-22-19  carib

Pill: that would be rather suicidal, because there would be massive nuclear retaliation, sending the iranian survivors (if any) back to the stone age.

07-22-19  pillz

there where no reply on Israel attacks on Iran … they know the only way to do it , is to send an atomic missile … no more no less … you know the Iran marine is meaningless , their air combat aviation is nothing ;;; , the only what they must do is upgrading big way their long range missile and their uranium enrichment … Israel know it … and of cause the US ,,, Europe know nothing , they are only blabla and believe Iran like a naïve boys ...

07-22-19  carib



“Eye for eye and hand for hand is our Islamic ideology. An American eye or a European hand are not more valuable than an Iranian eye or hand,” said Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a reformist politician. “Iran will not let the balance of power be disrupted in the region, which would equal our death. If we let Britain treat us unjustly now, others will follow suit.”

Iranian leaders say they are committed to diplomatic solutions and seek neither escalation of tensions nor war with the US or other western states. But while they say they will not initiate any attack, they insist any act of aggression will be reciprocated, even if it risks wider conflagration.

IMHO the point they miss is that they cannot win a direct military confrontation, unless they manage to make it asymmetric..

07-22-19  carib

Pill: IMHO it's more complicated than that.
Of course, the Mullahs regime in Iran is evil, but there are many factions, as always.
If war was an easy, effective solution, it would have already been waged and won.

07-22-19  pillz

intelligence on the intentions of the various iranian potentates.

//

Carib, why you think that the enrichment of uranium is so important in this case … because we know that their intention is for real … they want the destruction of Israel , why ?

because they are a bunch of fanatics … , no need a lot of intelligent in this case ...

07-22-19  carib

Pill: intelligence on the intentions of the various iranian potentates.

07-22-19  pillz

btw. Israel is the only land that attacked Iran in Syria , and not a few times, but more then 200 times … in the last 2 years ... and how Israel know exactly where to target it , intelligence of cause ..

07-22-19  pillz

but lack first hand local intelligence.


//

on what ? taking some tankers ? it don't need intelligence … the only intelligence needed is on uranium enrichment … and you can be sure there is very sophisticated intelligence on it …

07-22-19  carib

Pill: I am aware of that, but lack first hand local intelligence.

07-22-19  pillz

Carib, I agree … but as Iran is in a very bad situation economically … everything can happen … and imo, it could become a very dangerous situation …

07-22-19  carib

embarking, not marking

07-22-19  carib

Pill: if the Iranians try to selectively block Hormuz, the military reaction can be punctual and tactic: sink iranian skiffs, possibly shoot down a couple of planes. Theissue you are referring too is an actual strategic intervention with destruction of all the main nuclear sites, and possibly of the regime itself. Is BoJo UK marking on this venture?

07-22-19  pillz

yes Carib and 2 days ago it was an US aircraft that was in Veny airspace … no joke ...

07-22-19  pillz

btw: I do not know enough to conclude it's a desired casus belli.

//

Carib , imo, the casus belli will depend on uranium enrichment , not the Iran game with some tankers .. , yes of cause if they do it in a more regular way , there will be more international war ship in the strait of hormuz … etc... but not a war ,,,, it will only depend on the uranium enrichment … to become a real war ..

07-22-19  carib

El Comando Sur de Estados Unidos denunció hoy que un avión militar venezolano voló agresivamente cerca de una aeronave de inteligencia estadounidense en espacio aéreo internacional en el Mar Caribe.

07-22-19  carib

Ruspan: you can post 10.000 times, but we remain in disagreement.

btw: I do not know enough to conclude it's a desired casus belli.
that pre-supposes a coherent plan, and I am not sure there is one.
Even harder to understand the UK position, given the second clown expected to take office in 48-72 hours. The term is not intended as derogatory. It is the way UK cartoonists see BoJo now.
I deeply dislike Trump, but the US remains a 15 trillion economy with some growth, attracting millions of immigrants. China is in decent shape (with more worrying debt)
Russia is just a medium size militarist country with many natural resources and a clever autocrat.

07-22-19  Alex

https://www.rferl.org/a/zelenskiy-s-party-on-track-for-43-9-percent-exit-poll-shows/30067710.html



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