12-14-25 leopardo
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12-14-25 carib
Savo: I would add that in retrospect, I was not "clever" enough to try buying a large nominal of PDVsa bond at 3 cents on the dollar under sanctions, because I could have sold most of them back @25 cents on the dollar now, and live relaxed ever after.
The reason is I thought I already had an exposure higher than reasonable, and there was no sufficient motive for risking a ranch on such a bet.
That is the same reason for not buying more now. |
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12-14-25 savo
The issue here is the "cleverness" of individual colores bondholders.
:-))))
cleverness is erratic.. we were not clever holding veni after 2019... but we were clever not selling when it hit 2%...
The intelectual doubt that I have is this:
If Trump bombards and veni does not turn into another guerrilla warfare country like Nicaragua in the 80s.. matter solved ... bonds jump.
If Trumps does not bombard and doesn't do anything ...we go back to 2022 when Guaido had become already a bad word, the oppo disbanded with the money stolen from Citgo and Monomeros and bonds hit rock bottom.
If Trump does not bombard and revises policy using the 1MM barrels as a base to work out a transition without sanctions... bonds also jump.
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12-14-25 leopardo
Trump has 3 more years.
More then enough ,I think, to get rid of the Narco-Gang |
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12-14-25 carib
| My only point is that, in practice, my hope the the Cuban regime implodes tomorrow morning, or Savo's hope that the US administration changes policy, have no impact whatsoever on actual developments, so that our task is inevitably limited to making educated predictions, and invest accordingly. |
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12-14-25 carib
| For example: Leo's "cleverness" currently is "wait and see", and so is mine. Not very "clever", actually, but a measure of uncertainty. |
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12-14-25 carib
Savo: I do not attribute any "cleverness" to the market.
I just mentioned a fact. The issue here is the "cleverness" of individual colores bondholders. |
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12-14-25 savo
to put things in context......
Angola exports a bit less than 1.5 million barrels... has several bonds in the market and recently issued a 2030 and a 2035 at 9.875% and 10.95%.
Nigeria exports around 1.5mm barrels.. the Nigeria 36 trades at less than 8%.
Veni exporting close to 1mm barrels was in a good base to work out some kind of transition without sanctions.
Progress had been made during all these years...Unfortunately the neocons decided to go back in time 7 years...
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12-14-25 savo
carib... i do not know why you attribute any particular cleverness to the market... it is the same market that crashes against every possible wall since the beginning of time.
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12-14-25 leopardo
| I’m not buying nore selling |
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12-14-25 carib
| In the meantime, the question is to sell, if one expects "cubanisation" as the outcome, or to buy, if one expects a viable solution. The market appears to believe that political change grants some sort of solution, and continuity will not. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Time will soon tell where we are, IMHO. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
"We are where we are"
Exactly. |
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12-14-25 savo
and let me add.. we are where we are which is exactly where we were in 2019 including bond prices... oil exports halted... Maduro's days are numbered, etc...... only thing different is Rubio instead of Pompeo.
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12-14-25 savo
pana..sorry... you forget sanctions... how did you expect Maduro to conduct free and fair elections under a 50MM price tag?
Did you really expect he was going to accept defeat and hand over power under personal sanctions?
That election was a farce and it ended in the only way it could possibly end.
We knew it they knew it. But that was the Dems... we don't know what kind of deal they had with Maduro..then the Dems lost... Trump and the neocons came... and we are where we are.
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12-14-25 panasonic
| Savo, negotiations already happened with Maduro when nephews were released, free and fair elections and hand power...problem is, Maduro has been stripped of power. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
| Carib, as said long discussion on Taiwan, my short version is China would face extremely harsh global sanctions, not only from USA, if China decides to invade. |
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12-14-25 savo
pana.. clarification...i am not saying China will send supersonic missiles to Veni if the US attacks... but I am not saying they will not either... things are complex... we do not know the whole story... the BBc does not have any more info than the rest of us... the BBC speaks through specific journalists who provide their own personal opinions under the label BBC .. those opinions are as valid as yours or mine...
all I am saying is that in the current world order... if the US is on one side.. China and Russia are in the other. And they are not passive observers... they get involved.. proof 1 Maduro is still there.. proof 2 Ukraine war into the 4th year..(how can a 2 trn economy beat EU 19trn?.. answer China is involved behind the scenes)
It seems to me that the US understands this well... and wants to avoid military involvement for as long as possible.
The only guys that do not understand what is going on are Macron and Merz.
Listen to Putin here:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gz8WuV3rcwY
My personal opinion remains the same... Maduro and the rest of the gang would be happy to go if a proper exit is provided. That may include some more years in Miraflores and a transition without sanctions. Had they agreed to that in 2019 ...Maduro would be history by now... Instead they sent Abrams to negotiate ...you know the result. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: I do not consider realistic the idea of kicking China out of global markets, but consider possible the idea of regime change in Cuba, with all that would follow. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, me looking forward to kick Russia and China from the region.
As for EU they certainly have a problem in hands.
Taiwan requires a long discussion, my "short" version is that China can't break with USA, EU and Asia at the same time, would need to deal with extremely harsh global sanctions. |
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12-14-25 carib
In the LatAm sub-continent, IMHO, the next big potential turning point will be the elections in Brasil, next october.
Chile is turning "right" today, almost certainly. |
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12-14-25 carib
Panas: it is not a surprise, what the BBC states.
Neither Russia or China have the will and the means to protect Maduro, or Cuba, for the matter, in case the USA decides to act.
Russia seeks payback in eastern europe, and China in Taiwan. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, you need to put my answer back in the context of BBC's article.
Savo thinks its wrong me think they are right. Russian and Chinese support is fading out.
Only support left is the fear of financial links to a long list of regime paid friends.
What do you think,is article right or wrong? |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: perhaps, but the people you mention do not have a say on what is to happen, hence are irrelevant, IMHO. |
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12-14-25 pillz
carib
Pill: I think in the 26 region..
//
thanks... |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, where did I say DT?
I'm talking the Sanchez, Petro, Zapatero, Sanders, etc. |
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12-14-25 carib
un extenso reportaje de The New York Times, que expone cómo el actual secretario de Estado estadounidense, Marco Rubio, concibe la salida de Maduro del poder como una pieza clave para debilitar al régimen de La Habana.
El diario estadounidense recuerda que, durante el primer mandato de Donald Trump, un intento fallido de derrocar a Maduro en 2019 dejó una lección clara para Rubio y otros funcionarios de Washington: Cuba fue determinante para mantener al chavismo en el poder.
Según exfuncionarios citados por el medio, la inteligencia cubana alertó a Maduro de la conspiración y agentes de La Habana ayudaron a sofocar la revuelta, mientras un avión esperaba para evacuarlo si era necesario.
“Su teoría del cambio implica cortar todo apoyo a Cuba”, afirmó Juan González, exasesor del presidente Joe Biden para asuntos del hemisferio occidental, citado por The New York Times. “Según este planteamiento, una vez que Venezuela caiga, Cuba le seguirá”.
Makes sense.
Not sure if plan will be actually enforced. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: the thesis that narco cartels are "financing" Trump.. to start a war against them.. is fascinating. IMHO DT and family happily "finance" themselves with no narco support, right now. |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Savo, Carib, we must not forget that narco cartels have tentacles, high ranked politicians, and are in their payroll.
Support comes from there, if they fall everyone who is doing biz with them falls.
Epstein list is a children's playground compared. |
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12-13-25 carib
“President Trump’s actions have been decisive to reach the point where we are right now, in which the regime is weaker than ever,” Machado told reporters in Oslo on Thursday. “You need to raise the cost of staying in power and lower the cost of leaving power. Only when you do that will this regime break down. And that’s where we’re moving towards right now.”
The ball, IMHO, is in Trump's court.
Not sure where it will end up.
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12-13-25 carib
Savo: if the US want to take out Maduro.. they can.
As simple as that. The issue about them actually wanting it.. is a different matter.
I have no idea what DT actually wants to do. |
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12-13-25 carib
| Pill: I think in the 26 region.. |
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12-13-25 savo
pana.. chavism is a calamity... i think we all agree on that...
but as much as we would like to see it gone and our bonds restructured and worth 100%... we have to analyze the situation as it is not as we would like it to be.
Maduro did not survive Obama, Trump 1.0, Biden and is surviving trump 2.0 with the Gerald Ford in his dinning room and the F18 flying over his head on his own... he has support from somewhere.
That support helped him increase oil production from almost zero in 2019 to more than a million barrels and export almost a million barrels.. and that includes Chevron.. who continues producing and exporting...
Things are complex... we do not know the full story.
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12-13-25 spal
spal, isnt it more like a dt thing?
but once dt retires in 3 years? i doubt it.
===
Yes, that will be interesting. |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Savo, Veni chavismo syphoned billions that ended in Salamanca and Miami, not Russia nor China.
Estan hasta las coronillas de los "bolichicos". |
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12-13-25 victor
spal, isnt it more like a dt thing?
but once dt retires in 3 years? i doubt it.
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12-13-25 savo
pana... i do not think russia and china will give up veni easily.. irrespective of what the BBC says...... they have no reason too...
... do not forget the news of this week...the fed has gone from QT to QE in 24 hours... outright monetization of the fiscal deficit... into rising inflation... they need to avoid a housing meltdown, a stock market meltdown and help the government finance its 37trn debt.
Meanwhile gold and solver making new highs.
Ukraine? They do not need to trade it for veni... they can have both..
North Korea sounds like tropical communism... old story.
China might perfectly well have a nuclear submarine in the Caribeean... they will not tell the BBC.
Alternatively, Trump bombs Miraflores... Maduro goes... China and Russia too... But until that happens... the odds are the opposite is happening.
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12-13-25 spal
right, falange.
it never went away in spain.
===
Yes and do you get the feeling that a right falange has shown up un the US? |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Savo, impeding his exit is not support him, Maduro wants to leave and enjoy his billions.
China and Russia wanted a strong dictator to install a North Korea in our region, bus driver is not the man for the job.
The move the free the region from their presence is the right one. |
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12-13-25 savo
pana..FWIW.. i think that BBC article is wrong...
Russia and China are supporting Maduro... proof.. Maduro is still there... 8 years after... having defeated Trump 1.0, Biden, and IMHO on his way to defeat Trump 2.0 unless Trump starts bombing veni...
China and Russia do not need to support Maduro openly and in the press... so one can not know whether they are or are not.
But given Maduro remains in Miraflores... the best guess I think... is they are. |
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12-13-25 savo
| In precious metals, silver has stolen the spotlight once again as prices continued to surge to new highs. Silver prices have risen by over 8% so far in December, rallying to $64/oz before a late-week reversal. Moreover, silver has significantly outperformed gold, which itself has risen back towards ~$4,300/oz. Amid this outperformance, the gold to silver ratio has plummeted below 70, the lowest since 2021 (Figure 1lilitserovadG). The jump in silver, in part driven by further ETF inflows (Figure 2ilservognhSdFET) which continue to stress low liquid silver inventory outside of the US, has far outpaced our forecasts. While we think there is a risk that silver is overheating and valuations look quite rich at the moment, as long as uncertainty around Section 232 critical minerals lingers, silver, platinum and palladium all continue to remain vulnerable to further bouts of volatile upside in prices, given the ongoing strain on liquidity amid the reluctance to ship metal back from the US ahead of any clarity on tariffs. |
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12-13-25 victor
spal, the people? i meant the leaders, in this case of the us armed forces.
technically, you are supposed to be doing a job and that's it. but in reality, your views come into play.
patton was v far on the right, wanted to invade the ussr.
nowadays, those who dislike dt really want him to fail in vz, etc.
right, falange.
it never went away in spain. |
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12-13-25 spal
the usa is so polarized nowadays that you have to take this political angle into account, in my op.
===
If by polarized you mean split in two I don't actually think so. The people are less franchised by the process itself. I think bringing back the term "falange" is probably appropriate given the ideologically charged, cult like behavior of the Trumpistas. I am still agreeing with you that political symbology is a current driver. |
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12-13-25 victor
pana, right
i am guessing that holsey, the navy admiral who was forced to retire, is one of the reasons land strikes have not yet occurred.
holsey is black and a democrat, apparently.. a guy more than willing to make dt look like a fool.
democrat politicos are defending him, saying that they are concerned now that he's out.
the new guy, caine, is an air force general (good choice).. white and, i am guessing, a republican.. someone who wants dt to succeed in vz.
the usa is so polarized nowadays that you have to take this political angle into account, in my op. |
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12-13-25 panasonic
As Trump targets Venezuela, its allies Russia and China show little signs of support
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c075mr3190mo
Chinese goods home! |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Vic, transition from "non-intervention" policy back to direct intervention won't be easy at all.
One of the things I think we colores agree is that sanctions don't work, me and 90% of venezolanos want a more active way.
Me? I want Chinese out of the region and never come back, I want to live in South Korea, not north. |
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12-13-25 victor
Se retira el comandante a cargo de las operaciones militares de EE.UU. en el Caribe tras enfrentamientos con Hegseth
Hegseth consideraba que Holsey no estaba actuando con la suficiente agresividad para combatir a los narcotraficantes en la zona de operaciones del Comando Sur, según informó CNN, mientras que los oficiales del Comando Sur estaban preocupados por la legalidad de los ataques.
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12-13-25 pillz
Donald Trump escalates his anti-drug offensive in the Caribbean and announces "ground attacks" in Venezuela
Fri Dec 12 23:21:19 2025 EDT
Donald Trump scales up anti-drug offensive in the Caribbean, announces "ground attacks" in Venezuela
The US president stated from the Oval Office that the military strategy is aimed at ending the flow of drugs into the United States.
U.S. prepares to seize more oil tankers near Venezuela as it puts more pressure on Maduro
This was the secret operation of the Grey Bulls, the US rescue group that took María Corina Machado out of Venezuela.
President Donald Trump moved up a notch in his anti-narcotics strategy in the Caribbean, targeting Venezuela directly through ground actions under the argument of ending drug trafficking organizations shipping drugs to the United States.
From the White House, the Republican leader clarified that this new stage would be due to the success of the naval campaign he deployed in this part of the continent, which has led to at least 23 alleged "narco-boats" being destroyed and approximately 87 deaths.
Trump would start military actions over Venezuela
"This is not just about attacks on land in Venezuela. It's about attacking horrible people who bring drugs and kill our people," the US president said from the presidential office, claiming that this stage of his anti-drug strategy would guarantee a hard blow to drug trafficking. "Now we're starting on the ground, which is much easier. That's going to start happening," he added.
According to Trump, this "war on drugs" respond to the number of deaths per year related to the consumption of narcotics such as fentanyl and cocaine, which would have devastated thousands of families in the country. "At least 300,000 people," he said.
This announcement comes at a time of high volatility, where the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned several allies of the Chavista spectrum with the blocking of assets and the prohibition to operate in the country.
The MAGA government claims that the sea raids would have saved some 25,000 Americans by reducing the entry of these narcotics.
Trump gives ultimatum to Maduro
Donald Trump made clear his position on the regime of Nicolás Maduro, whom he describes as a usurper and accuses him of leading the Cartel of the Suns, currently designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States.
"His days are numbered", said the Republican through an interview with Político, after being asked how far he would be willing to go to overthrow Chavismo in Venezuela.
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12-13-25 pillz
| PETROLEOS DE VEN 11-21 9% REGS ,,, any idea if i want to sell this blond , price i must ask , thank you ... |
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12-13-25 victor
Trump dice que los ataques por tierra en Venezuela "van a empezar a suceder"
El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, dijo este viernes que los ataques por tierra en Venezuela “van a empezar a suceder” y que “no vamos a permitir que destruyan a nuestra juventud”.
“Ahora estamos empezando por tierra, y por tierra es mucho más fácil, y eso va a empezar a suceder”, dijo el presidente. “No vamos a permitir que esa gente destruya a nuestra juventud, destruya a nuestras familias”, agregó.
CNN se ha comunicado con la Casa Blanca para obtener una aclaración sobre lo que quiso decir el presidente.
Al ser preguntado si hay algo que el país pueda hacer para prevenir posibles ataques terrestres, Trump respondió que no quería “decir eso”.
“No quiero decir eso, pero no se trata solo de ataques terrestres contra Venezuela, se trata de ataques terrestres contra personas horribles que están introduciendo drogas y matando a nuestra gente”, agregó el presidente.
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