09-23-26 Merlino
Savo, Yes, that is also my view
About one month ago an intl consulting/advisory Co apparently very close to DT opened an office in Caracas. They have only a very few number of offices outside USA. Perhaps it is related to this |
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09-23-26 savo
| merlino.. fwiw i think that this is about replacing French Centerview for some entity close to Trump. |
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09-23-26 Merlino
Rubio ..... catalogando la reestructuración de la deuda externa como una prioridad fundamental para abrir paso a inversiones globales legítimas.
...........................................
Good! |
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09-23-26 carib
I would say that, by definition.. at the "right price" there will be always demand for UST bonds. Problem is high yields imply higher fiscal deficit, and eventually monetisation.. which could imply lower US$ FX. Or am I mistaken?
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09-23-26 savo
One of these days the stock market will learn about what is going on in the bond market and take a nosedive
pills.. still think that there is demand out there for USTs? |
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09-23-26 savo
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09-23-26 victor
savo...
El FBI investiga el pirateo masivo de datos de miles de sus agentes a través de una página web de empleo
De confirmarse el alcance del hackeo, supondrá un duro golpe a la credibilidad de la agencia encargada de investigar las amenazas cibernéticas
El grupo cibercriminal ShinyHunters proclamó ayer que había robado una gran cantidad de datos “muy sensibles” sobre “casi todos los agentes del FBI y las personas que presentaron una solicitud de empleo” mediante su página web de ofertas laborales. La información privada de los miles de agentes supuestamente afectados incluye sus nombres, direcciones, números de teléfono, nombres de sus cónyuges e información médica, entre otros datos. De confirmarse el alcance de esta brecha de ciberseguridad, se trataría de un duro golpe a la credibilidad de la principal agencia de seguridad y aplicación de la ley del país. |
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09-23-26 carib
El Universal (pro Rodrigato):
Rubio alertó sobre los riesgos de acelerar etapas sin bases sólidas, indicando que "lo que amenazaría una república duradera en Venezuela sería que alguien resulte elegido y herede el escenario económico y social absoluto".
En este sentido, recalcó que, antes de concretar agendas electorales definitivas, el país debe resolver problemas macroeconómicos estructurales derivados de años de acciones no favorables, catalogando la reestructuración de la deuda externa como una prioridad fundamental para abrir paso a inversiones globales legítimas.
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09-23-26 savo
10 years... 5.10%
#impeachtrump |
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09-23-26 carib
El secretario de Estado de Estados Unidos, Marco Rubio, aseguró este miércoles que la reunión entre el presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, y la presidenta interina de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, fue breve pero que, entre otras cosas, hablaron sobre elecciones en Venezuela.
Rubio explicó en un rueda de prensa, un día después del primer encuentro entre ambos mandatarios desde el arresto de Nicolás Maduro en Caracas, que hablaron de cómo reconstruir la economía venezolana y de la transición política.
"No solo queremos que haya elecciones libres y justas, sino que exista una república duradera. Lo que amenazaría una república duradera en Venezuela sería que alguien resulte elegido y herede una catástrofe económica y social absoluta", declaró Rubio.
El jefe de la diplomacia estadounidense señaló que tras muchos años de "destrucción" y el reciente terremoto, Venezuela tiene muchos problemas a los que hacer frente, que a su juicio, se deben resolver antes de convocar unos comicios: "La reestructuración de la deuda es fundamental". |
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09-23-26 savo
Este martes, María Corina Machado intentó viajar desde Panamá hacia Curazao utilizando un pasaporte panameño, según un registro de vuelo al cual accedió un portal de noticias vía internet.
De acuerdo al documento, Machado tenía previsto trasladarse a bordo de la aeronave identificada con la matrícula HP-4DMB. Saliendo desde el Aeropuerto Internacional Marcos A. Gelabert, en Ciudad de Panamá y con destino al Aeropuerto Internacional Hato, en Curazao. No obstante, el viaje finalmente no se concretó. |
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09-23-26 victor
Panamá dio a Machado un pasaporte diplomático para facilitar su regreso
El Gobierno de Mulino expidió por razones humanitarias un documento especial que no concede la nacionalidad panameña; su número apareció después en un manifiesto de vuelo |
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09-23-26 hann
09-21-26 carib
Victor:
Resident and Non-Resident Aliens: Taxed only on income originating from within the Philippines
not so for citizens.
09-21-26 carib
Mo-mon: I think the Philippines have territorial taxation, so one can happily bank in Singapore, legally avoid any tax on capital income and gains (except local assets) and just need a tax residence certificate stamped. No CRS is relevant to the matter.
Correct?
09-21-26 mo-mon
Savo, you may want to consider residing in the Philippines. No CRS if resident, low retirement cost, 7k islands to choose from. Cash still widely used.
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Ph for citizens is global taxation, one of few modeled after USA... sucks. Estate tax is only 6% (may be raised to 10%). In either case imho it's low just pay it. I gather for non Ph citizens - tax only on local income. Interesting... for my kids.
Ph is partial signatory of fatca or CRS but does not implement yet. But it will some day. Indonesia similar but they got a CB governess who cracked the whip. They offered amnesty w 2% payment of undeclared assets if u keep it offshore and 1% if u bring onshore. It's not a bad amt however supposedly those who participated regret it. It's very difficult to compound w annual tax. But that's why Indo macro is far superior to Ph.
Even if we live here, can't really recommend it. Only if u intend to start or operate a biz - does it make sense. Or want a ph wife. Cheaper to start a biz here, home court advantage. Otherwise, infra sucks and will continue to suck and the reason no CRS is we have very wealthy officials.
There was old joke in Jakarta -3 wealthy generals got together. Ph general said see that road? - 20%. Thai dude said see that bridge?? - 30%. Indo guy said see that dam? Generals said what dam? Indon said 100%. Except now the 100% is the ph speaker.
But yes, possible to live amenitized. Most speak english, cosmopolitan areas & restos, beach, affordable staffing. In these areas less likely to be mugged/pick pocketed than central Barcelona or LA or SFO.
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09-23-26 victor
| https://x.com/VenteVenezuela/status/2102562548960641089 |
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09-23-26 victor
María Corina Machado ha intentado regresar siete veces a Venezuela sin conseguirlo
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09-22-26 victor
Delcy Rodríguez se recorre el plenario de la ONU para saludar a Sánchez y él le traslada su compromiso con Venezuela
La venezolana se acercó al lugar que ocupaba el presidente del Gobierno para saludarle y le pidió hablar sobre la situación de su país |
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09-22-26 savo
pana... example... if the US stops the fan... the US stops...
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-us-china-bike-tariffs/ |
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09-22-26 savo
although we are all anxious to see a debt restructuring asap... the reality is that under current economic conditions... after the earthquake... the terms would not have been attractive.
Better to wait for the economy to recover and then come up with something more acceptable.
The other option is my theory that the evil psycho has been doing the tour saying that whatever terms are agreed with Delcy will not be honored. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
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09-22-26 carib
| delay + sacking Pigasse might go hand in hand. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
"may delay its planned debt restructuring"
Sounds more like the reason for price drop. |
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09-22-26 carib
Venezuelan news site Bitacora Economica reported that the Delcy Rodriguez administration had decided not to move forward with the debt restructuring for now to focus on the oil deals and improving the nation’s credit profile
“Moving out the ‘restructuring date’ has negative implications for current prices,” said Matthew Graves, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at PPM America |
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09-22-26 carib
Vnezuela’s defaulted dollar bonds fell by more than a cent across the curve on Tuesday as local media reports that the government may delay its planned debt restructuring rattled investors.
Sovereign notes due in 2027, some of the most liquid, dropped by 1.2 cents on the dollar to trade below 53 cents, according to indicative pricing data compiled by Bloomberg |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, Lazard offer was better and much cheaper, Reuters should report any news if happens, nothing yet. |
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09-22-26 carib
Veny bond prices down.
FMI coming to Caracas, but not soon.
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09-22-26 carib
any rumors Veny is sacking Centerview?
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09-22-26 carib
| exorbitant privilege.. known for half a century.. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Prediction markets say Senate now 60% probability it goes to democrats. |
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09-22-26 carib
PS: if the europeans finally united and set up a credible military, and an integrated and vital capital market, a significant part of the US extraordinary privilege would evaporate.
But the europeans must blame themselves, not the americans. |
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09-22-26 carib
Savo: the origin of the deficit is twofolds:
1) importing more goods than the US exports (partially covered with surplus in services)
2) spending more than tax revenue.
Both factors allow "poor" americans to get more goods and benefits than they otherwise would.
Most non poor americans have pension funds betting on the S&P500, essentially, so it is not only the oligarchs who benefit. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Savo, in your opinion what happens to global economy if that fan is turned off? |
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09-22-26 savo
feed wall street with a constant flow of money
that was my point... the flow is the interest on the debt... which is fundamental to the model as long as it does not spill over Main street and Housing street.
The problem with this scheme... is that it feeds the hyper rich and those are not many.
Main Street and Housing Street, which the "many" are not happy hence DT's low approval ratings.
And his 5,000 check promise supported by the imbecile in chief at the treasury.
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09-22-26 carib
ft
In early September, the top foreign exchange experts at Japan’s biggest banks started taking calls from investors and regulators with two big questions: how big is the yen carry trade, and how close is it to unwinding?
The short answers from the Tokyo forex gurus — “nobody exactly knows” and “a lot closer than we would like” — were of little comfort to them.
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09-22-26 carib
My take, to put it in simple terms is that the USA systematically runs a twin deficit with the rest of the world, partially offset by profits of big tech, and this allows uncle Sam to give goodies to the poor, so they keep consuming, and feed wall street with a constant flow of money, so the rich feel happier.
Foreigners can join the bandwagon by betting on the right US stocks.
If this merry go round gets stopped by an unhinged leadership, we will face some turbulent times. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
Savo, Musk's territory indeed, build factories fully automated and tariffs are irrelevant.
It will happen? Me say political class won't understand so for now, I'm pessimistic.
Hope we see USA running zero deficit, then we can re-visit if world can thrive without US printing press. |
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09-22-26 spal
| BWET ... insane vol ... tanker market high probably hit ... caution. |
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09-22-26 savo
i disagree with that Pana... take China... tariffs on China... you would have supposed that China's trade surplus would go down... it didn't.. it went up...how come? they sold less to the US and more to the rest of the world.
There are a number of urban legends around... one is that engine one..
The US consumes what it does not produce and for which the did not pay in real goods... they pay with printed money that loses value before arriving....
The US is not carrying the rest of the world... the opposite... the rest of the world is carrying the US as the rest of the world is financing US consumption with rest of the world savings. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
China spends record amount importing over 1,000 tonnes of gold this year.
World’s second-largest economy shelled out almost $160bn on bullion in eight months to August |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Savo, US trade deficit is the engine of the world, hope it goes down to zero but global economies won't look that good that day. |
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09-22-26 savo
pana... USA has everything it needs
quite the opposite...
hence the 1trn + trade deficit...
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09-22-26 carib
| Panas: not qualified to provide meaningful prediction. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, your take on gold? |
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09-22-26 carib
| One sometimes gets the impression this US administration is trying to undermine their own currency.. |
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09-22-26 spal
| Panas - your last point is a good one I think. |
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09-22-26 spal
KSA will be chocked to death.
===
No great loss. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
Savo, you're missing the real point, USA has everything it needs.
Now that power balance in ME has been broken with Xi's sponsorship,
decision relies on the rest of world; is their money being used to build weapons pointing at them? |
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09-22-26 savo
| bessent is an incompetent... he should focus on his job and stop making international threats. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
"Saudi Arabia will ultimately choose to pay for security guarantees"
That will work for some time, but eventually has to be solved or KSA will be chocked to death. |
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09-22-26 carib
Standard Chartered, Citigroup and other international banks have handled billions of dollars from a Kremlin-backed fintech company that tricked its way into the global financial system with a vast document forgery operation.
Hundreds of thousands of files obtained by the FT from inside A7, a group set up as an alternative to the western payments system, reveal how it used old-fashioned money laundering to funnel more than $6.9bn through the international banking system despite sanctions on Russia.
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09-22-26 carib
is Bessent deterrent credible?
I am no longer sure about that.
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09-22-26 spal
G7 statement: Houthi strikes in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia are unacceptable and must stop
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Yes mum, yes dad ... f_ck you. |
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09-22-26 spal
Expect one or two more highly targeted, sudden operational spikes—such as a brief, high-visibility disruption to an oil transit node or an intercepted tanker scare in the Gulf—between now and mid-October.
This will serve as Tehran's final "demonstration of capability" to ensure the back-channel negotiations in Oman yield a concrete, non-dollar financial lifeline before their floating reserves run dry.
Then some kind of off ramp cooked up in Muscat. |
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09-22-26 spal
Savo - the deficit/ debt is not a conspiracy. The vast majority of federal spending is driven by mandatory transfer payments and structural entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veteran benefits). These are political asks and choices. The interest bill is the consequence of decades of accumulated primary deficits.
The system has been ginned up (ample reserves regime etc) to accomodate this.
Consumption is hit - via inflation. |
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09-22-26 spal
| Concurrently, Riyadh will accelerate quiet, off-grid financial and diplomatic negotiations with Tehran and the Houthis via Oman. Faced with U.S. reluctance to enter a fresh war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia will ultimately choose to pay for security guarantees, opting for a costly economic compromise over a destructive, multi-year war of attrition. |
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09-22-26 spal
Saudi Arabia must now either fight an expensive, asymmetric war of attrition alone or enter quiet, off-grid negotiations with Tehran and Ansar Allah.
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"Show me the money" |
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09-22-26 spal
Having successfully isolated Saudi Arabia from direct U.S. military intervention, Ansar Allah is re-allocating forces toward the Kahboub Mountains and moving east toward Marib to threaten Saudi-backed oil extraction sites inside Yemen.
The Saudi Posture (Exhaustion & Isolation): The Royal Saudi Air Force continues to launch localized interdiction strikes over Taiz and Hajjah, but Riyadh is facing acute air defense interceptor depletion. Lacking direct U.S. air support, Saudi leadership is scrambling to secure air-defense replenishment from European and regional partners while evaluating whether its infrastructure can sustain continued saturation strikes. |
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09-22-26 spal
| The "Muscat Channel" Guarantees: The decision to abort was driven by assurances reaffirmed through Omani diplomats in Muscat. The Houthis explicitly messaged Washington that their 2025 bilateral ceasefire with the U.S. remains intact and that they will not target U.S. warships or American commercial shipping—focusing their kinetic pressure exclusively on Saudi Arabia to force an economic capitulation. |
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