01-10-26 leopardo
Right Carib.
But I stick to the fact that Vnz/Pdvsa bonds
are mostly Us detained and DJT does not want
to let’s say contrast and put himself in bad light with Us banks funds family Office s and Us lawyers working in the country. |
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01-10-26 spal
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01-10-26 spal
01-10-26 leopardo
My reading is that Oil companies investing in Venezuela will be well compensated for what they are doing.
So they can favor a write off for old expropriations as they will gain a lot from investing in the country.
===
Leo - I think this is a fantasy at current price levels and relative to other opportunities. The market price would need to be disrupted (meaning pulling Russian or Iranian oil completely off the market) - but higher prices are NOT in the interest of Trumps domestic strategy.
He is simply going to strong are Chevron and some others to lift as much Vene crude as possible without moving prices - to squeeze out the contraband discount and the oil will be processd by the Saudis in Port Arthur (Texas) at low margins (as the Saudis are trying to get a lock on US refining capacity).
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01-10-26 spal
ExxonMobil's strategy heavily favoring Guyana is based on the superior risk-adjusted returns of the Stabroek Block compared to the massive costs, high risks, and lower profitability associated with re-entering Venezuela's dilapidated and politically volatile oil sector.
Comparative Costs and Profitability
Guyana (Stabroek Block): ExxonMobil's operations are world-class, low-cost assets with breakeven prices averaging around $30 per barrel. This makes the projects highly profitable, even in a low oil price environment, and allows for consistent returns with a low-to-medium risk profile.
Venezuela: The estimated breakeven price for projects in Venezuela is much higher, around $80 per barrel, due to the heavy crude quality requiring costly diluents and extensive processing, and the need for massive infrastructure overhauls. This is far above the current global oil prices hovering near $60-$65 per barrel.
Global Supply and Price Effects
Guyana Expansion: Exxon's ramp-up in Guyana (reaching 1.7 million bpd by 2030) is a steady, predictable increase in high-margin barrels that the market is absorbing within current forecasts.
Venezuela Revival: A rapid return of Venezuela to historical production levels (3-4 million bpd) would require an enormous capital expenditure of around $183 billion over 15 years and is widely considered unlikely in the short term.
However, even a more modest, hypothetical increase of production from Venezuela could flood the market, contributing to an existing or potential global oversupply (forecasted at a surplus of 3-4 million bpd in 2026).
This would likely suppress global oil prices, eroding the margins on ExxonMobil's existing production, including the highly profitable lighter barrels from Guyana.
Conclusion - it is better for Exxon that Vene oil remain in the ground. |
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01-10-26 carib
Leo: oil cos IMHO are correct in asking for solid guarantees before investing billions.
it takes a few years to recover your investment, before cashing profits. oilcos suffered expropriations and abusive taxation in Veny in the past.
The current de facto government cannot offer guarantees.. because they are officially "illegitimate".
US military power offers solid guarantees now.. but who can be certain of who will be in the white house in 2029?
Bottom line: ousting Maduro was great (hat off), avoiding a civil war also great.. but a credible, democratically elected veny president is necessary to offer solid guarantees.
MCM meeting DT is a good step forward.
But the key issue is DT apparently has no respect for formalities and legal niceties.
he considers himself and acts as if he was "deus ex machina"..
so we do not know what he might decide next, sadly. |
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01-10-26 leopardo
My reading is that Oil companies investing in Venezuela will be well compensated for what they are doing.
So they can favor a write off for old expropriations as they will gain a lot from investing in the country. |
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01-10-26 patient-trader
2 lawyers are engaged in a bizarre power struggle over Nicolás Maduro
https://www.businessinsider.com/nicolas-maduro-lawyer-power-struggle-venezuela-president-pollack-fein-2026-1
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01-10-26 carib
| Leo: what is your reading of Trump on the Conoco arbitration claim? |
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01-10-26 carib
| Merlino: on a technical point, producing electricity by burning oil is now more expensive than using solar (of course, in sunny areas) |
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01-10-26 carib
O cardeal italiano Pietro Parolin, secretário de Estado do Vaticano, procurou representantes americanos na Santa Sé no final do ano passado para tentar mediar um asilo para o ditador Nicolás Maduro na Rússia, diz o jornal The Washington Post.
De acordo com o veículo, a conversa ocorreu na véspera de Natal, quando o religioso convocou Brian Burch, embaixador dos EUA na Santa Sé, para obter detalhes dos planos dos Estados Unidos na Venezuela. |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| There is also the new factor that AI seems to be incredibly power hungry and conventional fossil fuels/gas electric generation is the quickest route to increase production |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| I would say that as it was handy for US to get Veni out of the mkt years ago to make room for her fracking it seems it is the opposite now either bcz of her desire to get Iran to reduce production or whatever other reason |
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01-10-26 Merlino
if things go smoothly and transition carries on without problems the Bonds rally has further to go. I would not sell now but sell a part of my position before restructuring.
.................................
About same for me fwiw.....I guess this is kind of consensus view here in colores |
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01-10-26 leopardo
| Carib if things go smoothly and transition carries on without problems the Bonds rally has further to go. I would not sell now but sell a part of my position before restructuring. |
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01-10-26 spal
| "trimming" - absolutely the smart more. Sell into the impulse before it fades. |
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01-10-26 carib
Asset manager Aberdeen Investments is "trimming" its holdings of Venezuela's sovereign bonds, a portfolio manager told Reuters, after a stunning rally that has more than doubled the price of the country's defaulted bonds in the past 12 months.
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01-10-26 carib
| I would say.. 26 years of having the wrong regime.. |
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01-10-26 spal
The majors' reluctance is highly likely to persist absent a significant oil price rise or major supply disruption elsewhere. Ceteris paribus, this exposes a clear US miscalculation.
As of January 10, 2026, oil markets remain soft: Brent crude hovers around $60–63/bbl, WTI near $58–59/bbl, with no upward momentum.
Forecasts unanimously point to continued easing in 2026 due to ample non-OPEC supply growth (Guyana, Brazil, US shale) and persistent global surplus—0.5–3.5M bpd oversupply expected, driving averages toward $55–56/bbl.
In this environment, Western majors have zero economic incentive to pour tens of billions into Venezuela's high-risk, capital-intensive rebuild.
Exxon is still publicly labeling it "uninvestable" without transformative reforms; the January 9 White House meeting yielded no commitments—only cautious study and demands for guarantees.
Adding Venezuelan barrels would only exacerbate the glut, further depressing prices and margins.
Ceteris paribus, the US (Trump administration) miscalculated by overestimating private-sector enthusiasm. The pitch assumed patriotic or opportunistic rush to invest post-Maduro capture—but majors prioritize shareholder returns and capital discipline over geopolitical imperatives.
Without subsidies, forced terms, or a tighter market (e.g., $80+/bbl from disruptions), progress stays stalled. Long-term strategic gains (energy dominance, displacing rivals) remain possible, but the short-term revival timeline looks overly optimistic.
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01-10-26 savo
it was so simple... 8 years following the wrong policy... 8 years supporting an unpresantable opposition .. 8years insisting with a mythic democracy that will come... in time ... but not by force...
From the meeting with the Oils:
El representante de Chevron durante la reunión en la Casa Blanca fue Mark Nelson, su vicepresidente, quien asistió en nombre del director ejecutivo Mike Wirth. “Las empresas se preparan para reconstruir la industria petrolera venezolana en beneficio de los estadounidenses y los venezolanos”, señalaron desde la administración norteamericana.
Durante la jornada, cuando fue el turno de hablar directamente con Nelson, Trump le agradeció a la empresa por el “aguante” y le dedicó: “¿Dónde estás? Fuiste el único que aguantó todo. Durante todo ese tiempo, te llamaba y te preguntaba: ‘¿Qué demonios pasa con Venezuela?’. Aguantaste. No sé si ganaste dinero o no, pero aguantaste".
En tanto, desde la empresa le agradecieron: “Gracias, señor presidente, por convocar a esta reunión. Gracias por su liderazgo y por seguir manteniendo la dominación energética estadounidense en primer plano. Chevron ha sido parte del pasado de Venezuela. Sin dudas, estamos comprometidos con su presente. Y, como orgullosa empresa estadounidense, esperamos con ansias ayudarla a construir un futuro mejor. Socios orgullosos del dominio energético estadounidense".
Según indicó Reuters, días atrás, Chevron comenzó conversaciones con el gobierno de Trump para ampliar su licencia para operar en Venezuela y aumentar las exportaciones de crudo a sus propias refinerías y vender a otros compradores. |
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01-10-26 spal
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01-10-26 spal
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
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2s
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷SEC. RUBIO: AMERICA STANDS WITH IRAN'S BRAVE PROTESTERS
Secretary Rubio just dropped a clear message to the protestors in Iran:
"The United States supports the brave people of Iran.”
As protests explode in over 100 cities, crowds torching regime symbols, chanting for freedom, and facing live fire in the blackout, this U.S. backing hits different on this one. |
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01-10-26 spal
| Iran ... now at the very edge |
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01-10-26 spal
Chaya’s Clan
@ChayasClan
·
19m
The entire local municipality building in the Iranian city of Karaj is engulfed in flames. |
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01-10-26 spal
| BREAKING: Iranian civilians set fire to mosques in the nation's capital — calling for the end of the regime's authoritarian, Islamic theocracy. |
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01-10-26 spal
Jack Prandelli
@jackprandelli
·
2h
White House Venezuelan oil meeting rough for ConocoPhillips⚠️
Trump told CEO Ryan Lance to forget the $12B Caracas owes them (from 2007 expropriation + interest).
Trump: “We’re not looking at past losses that was their fault... good write-off.” Lance: “Already written off.
====
Whoops |
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01-10-26 spal
Obvious to us both. Capturing Maduro neutralized Venezuela's threats to annex Essequibo which is two-thirds of Guyana, including offshore riches.
They don't need to stretch for Vene. |
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01-09-26 savo
| of course... Exxon wants another Guyana... 75% for Exxon 25% for Guyana... |
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01-09-26 spal
Venezuela is ‘uninvestible’ for now, Exxon CEO tells Trump in White House meeting.
Chevron more ready to play ball. |
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01-09-26 savo
if Trump is taking all veni resources that were supposed to be produced and exported to pay our bonds... and will pay for them with Fed papelitos.. the equitable thing to do is to also absorb the liabilities and pay them with Fed papelitos...
what are 100 bn of bonds and pdi in the big scheme of things? |
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01-09-26 carib
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01-09-26 carib
| Se especuló con que Rodríguez también visitaría Washington, pero lo desmintió Freddy Ñáñez, su ministro de Comunicaciones. “Estamos concentrados como Gobierno en la agenda interna para garantizarle a nuestro pueblo su derecho a la paz y la estabilidad”, ha dicho. |
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01-09-26 leopardo
No need to punish bondholders most of wich are Us
banks ,institutions or family offices.
They will give oil backed securities with low coupons
for old Vnz Pdvsa bonds
That will do the trick |
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01-09-26 carib
Iran signalled it was hardening its crackdown against protesters on Friday as an internet blackout cut off the Islamic republic from the outside world while the authorities battled to contain the biggest unrest in years.
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01-09-26 carib
| Leo: the risk is MAGA populism (I think US retail cannot buy Veny bonds directly) |
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01-09-26 carib
| Ao tentar equilibrar a defesa da soberania com a denúncia da violação de direitos, o Brasil terminou em um limbo diplomático. A influência brasileira na América do Sul está sob escombros porque o país não conseguiu, nos últimos anos, construir uma alternativa de liderança ao mesmo tempo intransigente com o autoritarismo de Maduro e feroz na defesa da autonomia territorial. |
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01-09-26 leopardo
Trump won’t punish Us banks and Usinvestors holding
Vnz/Pdvsa bonds imo… |
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01-09-26 carib
| and the risk we run is Trump plays an Iraq trick with Veny bonds.. |
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01-09-26 savo
| the scenario i am waiting for is for the US to assume veni's debt given that they are stealing veni's assets and paying in a currency which they print out of thin air. |
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01-09-26 panasonic
"Abre un escenario diplomático inédito sobre Venezuela"
No surprise if you are a colores reader ;-) |
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01-09-26 panasonic
| Carib, that would be the perfect closing act...all those billions for nothing. |
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01-09-26 carib
Venezuela’s currency has fallen nearly 20 per cent on the black market since the US capture of President Nicolás Maduro, as uncertainty pushes citizens to hoard dollars and the partial US oil blockade chokes the crumbling economy.The plunge adds to the pressure on interim president Delcy Rodríguez to strike a deal with the US that will get oil flowing and bring much-needed greenbacks into the country.
The black market dollar was quoted at 723 bolívars on Friday by Monitor Dolar Venzuela, up from 585 on January 2, the day before the US operation.
In supermarkets in the capital this week, a kilogramme of beef cost $12, while 30 eggs were sold at $6.30. The minimum wage is just 130 bolívars per month — about 18 cents at Friday’s black market rate — while state workers and pensioners earn monthly $40 bonuses to cover food, plus “economic war” handouts of $120. |
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01-09-26 victor
savo, maybe the idea is to get mcm & dr to meet with dt at the same time.
//
Delcy Rodríguez solicita viajar a la Casa Blanca el próximo martes
La petición, que exige una exención de sanciones del Tesoro, coincide con la llegada anunciada de María Corina Machado y abre un escenario diplomático inédito sobre Venezuela |
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01-09-26 carib
| Maybe Diosdado should end up like Julius Caesar (on March 15th)? |
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01-09-26 panasonic
Savo, they are positioning fast.
Rodriguez bros finally got it done, their exit package must be pretty good.
I'm curious on Diosdy's exit plan (if any), he killed and tortured people, cubans and russians want his head as well. |
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01-09-26 Merlino
| Savo they are moving fast. I am impressed, it looks they have planed most everything in advance (and in negotiated agreement with local powers) |
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01-09-26 savo
El encargado de Negocios de Estados Unidos, John McNamara, viajó a Venezuela con el objetivo de avanzar en la reapertura de la sede diplomática en el país, según informa W Radio este viernes 9 de enero.
La visita se produce en un momento en que Estados Unidos busca reabrir su embajada en Caracas y subraya el deseo de la administración de restablecer una presencia diplomática en el país que el presidente Donald Trump ha dicho que Estados Unidos va a «controlar».
El funcionario dijo que personal diplomático y de seguridad estadounidense de la Unidad de Asuntos de Venezuela, con sede en Colombia, y el embajador interino de Estados Unidos en Colombia, John McNamara, viajaron a la capital venezolana “para realizar una evaluación inicial para una posible reanudación gradual de las operaciones”. |
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01-09-26 panasonic
Spal, will do,the good ones are privately owned like Deepx.
Hyundai is owner of Boston Scientific i.e. so it goes, big players game, even VC guys are concerned bcz creators are able to develop apps with few lines of AI code. |
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01-09-26 carib
| Las declaraciones fueron realizadas durante una entrevista radial en la que Trump describió la política actual de su gobierno hacia La Habana como de “máxima presión”, subrayando que el régimen cubano atraviesa una situación de extrema debilidad. “No creo que se pueda ejercer mucha más presión salvo entrar y destruir el lugar”, afirmó el mandatario, en una frase que generó amplia repercusión. |
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01-09-26 carib
| Mexico should stop sending oil to Cuba, for a change. |
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01-09-26 victor
| Trump says the US will be conducting land strikes against the cartels. "We are gonna start now hitting land, with regard to the cartels. The cartels are running Mexico." |
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01-09-26 victor
U.S. Southern Command
Once again, our joint interagency forces sent a clear message this morning: “there is no safe haven for criminals.”
In a pre-dawn action, Marines and Sailors from Joint Task Force Southern Spear, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, launched from the USS Gerald R. Ford and apprehended Motor/Tanker Olina in the Caribbean Sea without incident.
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01-09-26 spal
Oil meeting--Trump, Rubio, Chris Wright, Doug Burgum to meet with executives from 17 companies today:
Chevron
Exxon
Conoco Phillips
Continental
Halliburton
HKN
Valero
Marathon
Shell
Trafigura
Vitol Americas
Repsol
Eni
Aspect Holdings
Tallgrass
Raisa Energy
Hilcorp
Hilcorp is very interesting BTW ... about as smart an operator as you can find anywhere.
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01-09-26 carib
Donald Trump anuncia que se verá con María Corina Machado en Washington DC:
“Es una muy buena persona. Viene la semana que viene y me interesa saludarla”. |
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01-09-26 savo
| guys... go ahead and sell with the news... Wall Street is delighted to take your bonds ! |
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01-09-26 savo
Great days await Venezuela...
US president Donald Trump said today that oil companies will invest at least $100bn to rebuild Venezuela's oil and gas infrastructure. His comments on social media platform Truth Social come ahead of a meeting with industry executives at the White House on Friday.
"At least 100 Billion Dollars will be invested by BIG OIL, all of whom I will be meeting with today at The White House," Trump said. |
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01-09-26 savo
victor.. clearly you know how to ruin my day! :-))
I hope he tells her to find an honest and forget about Miraflores for a good number of years. |
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01-09-26 victor
| savo, dt said he's meeting mcm next week |
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01-09-26 spal
| Panas - we are ready for you recommendations! |
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01-09-26 panasonic
Cheers from CES Las Vegas, tempted to sell all pdvsa and allocate in AI + Robotics, extraordinary what has been achieved in such short time.
Even panelists are speechless, demand is there, profit margins not sure will be enough down the road.
Best stuff is privately owned :-( |
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01-09-26 savo
Great days ahead for Venezuela.. free of MCM and free of sanctions...
Chevron, Vitol, Trafigura vie to control Venezuelan oil exports, sources say
By Shariq Khan, Marianna Parraga and Dmitry Zhdannikov
January 8, 20268:55 PM GMT-3Updated 3 hours ago
NEW YORK/HOUSTON/LONDON, Jan 8 (Reuters) - Oil major Chevron Corp (CVX.N)
, opens new tab, global trading houses Vitol and Trafigura, and other firms are competing for U.S. government deals to export crude oil from Venezuela, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The competition reflects a desire by many in the oil industry to access the South American country's crude stocks and production, with U.S. officials seeking to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely.
U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that Venezuela give the United States full access to its oil sector just days after the U.S. captured the South American country's President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. U.S. officials have said Washington will control the country's oil sales and revenues indefinitely.
Both Vitol and Trafigura were set to join Chevron and other major oil companies in meetings at the White House on Friday over the roles they may have in Venezuela's oil industry, Reuters reported on Thursday.
Ahead of the meetings, the companies have been lobbying the U.S. government hard to secure a share of what are expected to be lucrative oil export agreements from Venezuela.
The companies are contesting initial deals to market the up to 50 million barrels of oil that state-run oil company PDVSA (PDVSA.UL) has accumulated in inventories amid a severe oil embargo that has involved four tanker seizures, two of the sources said.
This week, PDVSA said negotiations were progressing, but provided no details. Its main joint venture partner, Chevron, is well placed to negotiate an expansion of its license to operate in Venezuela as the only major oil company still in the country.
Chevron could also trade at least a portion of PDVSA's own production, three sources said. However, for the first time in years, the U.S. oil major must compete with other foreign companies.
PDVSA wants to make sure that joint venture partners and former customers are part of the deal so it can complete debt repayment, expand output and secure fair prices for crude grades bound for specific destinations, two of the sources said.
Is the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela, which it does under an authorization from the U.S. government, that exempts it from sanctions on the country.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Energy said it was engaging with commodity marketers and banks to execute and provide financial support for Venezuelan crude and fuel sales. It did not specify which companies.
Details about the competition for these contracts had not previously been reported.
The sources requested anonymity to discuss confidential information. Vitol and Trafigura declined to comment. Chevron, PDVSA, and the White House did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
TRADING HOUSES ENTER THE FRAY
Geneva-headquartered Vitol has already received a preliminary license from the U.S. government to begin negotiations for the import and export of oil from Venezuela for 18 months, four sources told Reuters on Thursday.
Vitol and Trafigura had traded Venezuelan oil prior to U.S. sanctions in 2019 and marketed cargoes initially received by some of PDVSA's partners in recent years. Their capacity to have tanker fleets in Venezuela quickly and trade barrels exceeds that of others currently operating in Venezuela.
"U.S. majors are central to production, but large international trading houses bring global reach and optionality the majors lack. It therefore makes clear sense for these traders to engage proactively with the U.S. government to discuss next steps," Jean-Francois Lambert of consultancy Lambert Commodities said.
US INDEFINITE CONTROL OF OIL SALES
The Trump administration set its sights on Venezuela's oil industry soon after U.S. forces captured Maduro on January 3. Washington has said it wants to control Venezuela's oil sales and revenue indefinitely.
Trump has said he wants U.S. companies to invest in Venezuela and rebuild its oil industry to produce more oil and bring global energy costs down. Some oil executives have begun arranging trips to Caracas to do initial assessments.
Analysts and industry executives have expressed skepticism, noting Venezuela's degraded infrastructure, poor quality crude, and political uncertainty. U.S. oil majors have said they want "serious guarantees" before they make investments in Venezuela.
Years of under-investment and sanctions have led Venezuela's output to fall to around 1 million barrels per day, or just 1% of global supply, from 3.5 million bpd in the 1970s when it accounted for 7% of global oil.
Since 2019, the only companies authorized by the U.S. to receive oil from Venezuela are Chevron, India's Reliance (RELI.NS)
, opens new tab, Italy's Eni (ENI.MI), opens new tab, Spain's Repsol (REP.MC), opens new tab and France's Maurel & Prom (MAUP.PA)
In recent years, China has taken the lion's share of Venezuela's oil exports through little known intermediaries. Since last month when the U.S. began a naval blockade of Venezuelan waters, China has been unable to import Venezuelan oil.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-competes-with-rivals-venezuelan-oil-sales-sources-say-2026-01-08/
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