05-18-26 victor
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05-18-26 savo
| victor.. more trading opportunities for DT |
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05-18-26 victor
dcr attempting to distance himself as much as possible from saab
:-)))
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Aparece Diosdado Cabello asegurando que Álex Saab es "ciudadano colombiano", que NUNCA FUE VENEZOLANO y que los documentos que presentó en el pasado son fraudulentos.
Pese a que él mismo decía todo lo contrario hace unos años y fue ministro de la dictadura.
https://x.com/EmmaRincon/status/2056451810429190478 |
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05-18-26 victor
| I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN! Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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05-18-26 carib
| Interesting.. Trump might take it personally, I guess.. |
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05-18-26 savo
Iran weighs up £43.5m bounty on Trump and Netanyahu
Politicians to vote on reward for assassination of US or Israeli leader |
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05-18-26 savo
victor... saylor seems to be the only buyer... he spent 64bn since his spree started in 2020... average cost 75.7 k.. price today 77K
6 years buying btc for a 6 years profit of 1.7% in 6 years...
what will happen to btc when saylor does not find anybody else to finance his ponzi scheme?
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05-18-26 savo
meanwhile in the land of the crooks:
Trump just got exposed for running the biggest insider trading operation in American history.
Nancy Pelosi traded $5 million in stocks and Congress lost its mind.
Trump literally executed $750 MILLION worth of stock trades in ONE quarter while being President.
His ethics filing just dropped and the numbers are genuinely unprecedented in history:
Between January and March 2026, Donald Trump personally executed 3,700 individual stock transactions worth between $220 million and $750 million.
That's roughly 60 trades PER DAY.
While signing executive orders, meeting foreign leaders, and making policy decisions that directly impact the companies he's buying and selling.
Now here's where it gets really insane:
On February 10, Trump bought between $1 million and $5 million worth of Dell stock.
Three months later, on May 8, he stood at a Mother's Day event at the White House, thanked Michael Dell by name, and told Americans to "go out and buy a Dell."
Dell stock surged 14.6% that day to an all-time high of $263.99.
Since Trump's February purchase, Dell is up 96%.
And 5 months BEFORE Trump bought Dell stock, Michael and Susan Dell donated $6.25 billion to Trump Accounts, one of the largest philanthropic commitments to a sitting president's signature program in modern history.
So the timeline goes: Dell donates $6.25 billion to Trump's program -> Trump buys Dell stock ->Trump tells America to buy Dell from the White House podium -> Stock hits all-time high
And that's just ONE stock...
The same filing shows Trump bought Nvidia stock on February 10. One week later, Nvidia announced a massive chip deal with Meta.
He bought more Nvidia stock one week BEFORE his own Commerce Department approved the sale of Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia.
He bought Intel stock starting in March 2026. The US government already owned a 9.9% stake in Intel worth over $41 billion. On April 30, Trump posted on Truth Social praising Intel, writing that "Intel Stock continues to rise."
Intel jumped 3% in after-hours and is now up 140% year-to-date.
He bought Palantir stock while his administration was actively handing them billion-dollar government contracts for immigration enforcement and defense.
He bought Robinhood stock while his own Trump Accounts program uses Robinhood as the broker.
He's currently sitting on over 100% profit on AMD, Intel, Bloom Energy, Marvell Technology, and at least 10 other positions.
Every single president since Lyndon B. Johnson has used a blind trust to avoid exactly this situation. But Trump didn't.
His assets sit in a trust controlled by his own children, and the filings show a broker acted as agent on several trades.
The White House says the portfolio is "independently managed."
But here's what independently managed looks like:
Buy Dell stock. Three months later, publicly endorse Dell from the White House. Stock hits all-time high.
Buy Nvidia stock. One week later, your own government approves their chip sales. Stock rips.
Buy Intel stock. Post about Intel on Truth Social. Stock jumps. The government you run already owns a 10% stake.
Buy Palantir. Hand them contracts. Buy Robinhood. Route a federal program through their platform.
Nancy Pelosi got absolutely destroyed for her husband's stock trades.
Her husband's total disclosed trades in his most controversial year were worth roughly $5 million.
Trump just disclosed up to $750 MILLION in a single quarter.
While making the actual policy decisions that move these stocks.
This isn't a left or right issue.
We're talking about the President of the United States averaging 60 stock trades per day in companies his own administration regulates, contracts with, and publicly endorses.
https://x.com/ric_rtp/status/2056000508452651512
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05-18-26 victor
savo, i don't see saylor going broke soon, do you?
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MicroStrategy purchased 24,869 BTC for approximately $2.01 billion at an average price of $80,985 per Bitcoin, funded primarily by $1.949 billion from STRC at-the-market equity proceeds and $84 million from MSTR. The company's total Bitcoin holdings now stand at 843,738 BTC, acquired for about $63.87 billion at an average cost of $75,700 per Bitcoin. No Bitcoin was sold during this period.
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05-18-26 victor
savo, apparently VOX won't abstain.
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VOX 🇪🇸
18m
🗣 @Igarrigavaz
responde a la pregunta "¿Va VOX a abstenerse en una investidura de Moreno Bonilla?":
"No sólo es que diga VOX un no rotundo, sino que lo dijeron los andaluces ayer al depositar el voto en las urnas". |
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05-18-26 victor
| now they have 2 regionalist parties, Por Andalucia and Adelante Andalucia. |
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05-18-26 victor
savo, the PP? yes, due to a regionalist party doing better than expected.. Adelante Andalucia.
the one who benefits is VOX. |
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05-18-26 savo
| he did lose the absolute majority though |
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05-18-26 victor
Isabel Díaz Ayuso
Juanma Moreno ha conseguido arrasar a la izquierda en Andalucía una vez más.
Felicidades por cambiar el destino de tu tierra, que ahora es más fuerte, emprendedora y auténtica.
Esta derrota absoluta de Pedro Sánchez debería obligarle a dimitir, pero no lo hará porque su vida no depende de la política, sino de las condenas a todo su entorno y colaboradores. |
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05-18-26 victor
Bloomberg
Spain’s governing Socialist party suffered its worst defeat ever in the country’s largest region, even as the conservative People’s Party also ceded ground |
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05-17-26 victor
pana, sanchez lost 2 more seats in andalucia, from last period's already low numbers.. worst ever results.
everything on schedule for sanchez to lose in 2027. |
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05-17-26 savo
regarding alter ego... it was a fabrication of a US court under US gov instruction...
in the same way in which narco veni ceased to be narco the day it became a US friend... the US gov can reverse alter ego. |
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05-17-26 savo
carib.. that was the model.. but did not work... hence the debt with chevron, repsol, etc...
In the real world Pemex exists... Petrobras exists... YPF.. Aramco, Petronas...Equinor...KOC..Qatar energy,...etc... and those that do not have oil still have national champions, Eni, Total, Repsol, Petroperu..etc..
For some reason .. oil producing countries have solvent, large, dominant, well capitalized, sovereign oil companies with fluent access to the credit markets..... no need to reinvent anything...
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05-17-26 carib
PS: the point about PDVsa surviving.. I subscribe to.
But on the point PDVsa must co-invest with cash.. I am far less sure.
There are oil reserves, underground, owned by the Republic. The republic owns its oil company, that can make joint ventures with foreign oil cos.The joint venture can be based on the model: PDVsa contributes with the concession, the foreign co with the cash, and the proceeds are distributed in order to allow the foreign investor to get back his money with interest before profits get split..
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05-17-26 carib
| Savo: what about the "alter ego"? |
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05-17-26 savo
carib.. my understanding is that under the new hydrocarbons law PDVSA will be part of the business...not with the same 60% as before but with some %. Hence PDVSA, like any other oil company will need to access the market and borrow money to pay for its part of the investments.
Not settling for a while, does not seem to be an option.
Regarding holdouts, there is where the art of negotiation comes in.
An ungenerous offer will attract holdouts... a generous one will allow a quick exchange.
If we a assume that pdvsa working at full capacity could have a market cap similar to petrobras' 130bn... it can perfectly well carry a debt burden of 45 bn bonds with long maturities.
The problem is that under the Guaido/Vecchio/Borges/MCM plan pdvsa was supposed to disappear.. that is why DT's circle of trust was directed to buy the rep... but somehow pdvsa is still there alive and kicking and now they need to unscramble the eggs. hence the bundling.
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05-17-26 carib
Savo: my question is simple.. if the debtor wants to issue new bonds for cash soon, they need to restructure the defaulted debt first. Given no cacs, they either need to pay holdouts, or to be shielded from creditors by a US executive order.
If they just want to attract foreign investment, but not issue new debts, they might not settle for a while.
Or not?
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05-17-26 savo
leo...the true NPV
that is not possible to calculate without sstablishing first the rate of discount... and the rate of discount changes as the exchange gets closer.
So there is no such thing as NPV...
If I would be the negotiator I would say... discount at 6% to calculate NPV...
But holders will say discount at 13%...
which is impossible to reconcile.
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05-17-26 savo
carib.. i do not know about summary judgements... it will in the end depend on the offer veni makes... if it is good they will take it and move on...
but rep and pdvsa bonds are completely different animals... I can't see how they can be dealt with in the same package.
PDVSA does not have CACs.. and is the first line of combat for future borrowings....which need to happen at the corp level to increase oil production. They can't spend years dealing with pdvsa bonds... they need to work that out asap....but they can spend longer dealing with the 57bn of rep bonded debt plus all the litigation/arbitration. |
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05-17-26 carib
Argentina in 2005 opted for brutalising creditors, and as consequences remained without new private foreign credit for a decade, and eventually had to settle with holdouts.
I think Venezuela will act differently, but they mostly need massive foreign investment, more than new bonded credit.
Right now, they just dance at Trump's tune.
Let us hope they put intelligent and at least moderately honest people in charge of the restructuring.
Question remains: what will happen to bond creditors who already got summary judgements in US courts? CITGO way? |
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05-17-26 leopardo
The key question in the Venezuela/Pdvsa debt restructuring will not be the haircut on the legacy bonds, but the true NPV of the overall package.
It will likely be a sophisticated restructuring involving instruments beyond plain debt that enhance overall recovery value.
This is specialist territory. |
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05-17-26 savo
I do not see how pdvsa bonds can not be paid in full...under new terms..but at 100%...
so they should be dealt with first..
then they can look for sustainability at the rep level. |
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05-17-26 savo
leo... 100bn is a very large amount.... 45 bn is more manageable..
why are they bundling repand pdvsa together when they could get immediate access to the market by doing Pdvsa's 45bn?
Pdvsa's bond are all identical... rep's bonds aren't... and that will make things more complicated.
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05-17-26 leopardo
| High recovery=miminal holdouts |
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05-17-26 leopardo
Soo,
100Bln(60+accrued)Pdvsa and Republic bonds will be restructured first
All the rest will come later… |
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05-17-26 victor
pana, tomorrow elections in andalucia
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El PSOE llega hundido al 17-M: «El partido está destrozado»
En el partido acusan una «recta final desastrosa» en la campaña y la falta de movilización. «Se veía venir» |
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05-17-26 victor
Con la entrega de Alex Saab, se corre el rumor de la deportación de Camila Fabri a Italia que la están solicitando por lavado de dinero.
Aunque ella en enero había anunciado un acuerdo con la justicia italiana, se dice que aún así tendría que pagar casi dos años de cárcel en el país europeo.
Al parecer Italia la va a pedir y Delcy la va a entregar. |
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