04-20-26 carib
Savo: I hate the term "populace".
As far as I remember, the oppo never questioned Veny debt, even under AN 2015, except for the PDVsa 2020 secured by CITGO, the phantom 2036 bond and maybe PDVsa 22 6%.
The one who does not have good record with honouring debt.. is Trump (as a businessman).
The issue, IMHO, is we need a restructuring accepted on a bi-partisan level, given Delcy is the outcome of a blatantly falsified election.
She is doing a good job, now, we need a restructuring that is not going to be questioned by a freely elected successor. |
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04-20-26 carib
FWIW:
US President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend a ceasefire with Iran if a deal between Washington and Tehran cannot be reached before the two-week pause ends on Wednesday. |
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04-20-26 savo
leo.. hope for a restructuring before the evil psycho comes in and brings Haussmann and advocate of "odious debt".. for him all veni debt is odious.
"Odious debt is a legal theory in international law that states that national debt incurred by a despotic regime is not enforceable, as it is considered a personal debt of the government rather than a debt of the state. This concept suggests that such debts should not bind the nation, especially if they were incurred without the consent of the populace and not for their benefit." |
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04-20-26 leopardo
| I can bear a 30% fall in prices even if I would not like it. |
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04-20-26 leopardo
I May sell 10% of my position before July and
Keep the rest. It is not very much overweighted in my
portfolio(around 16% right now) |
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04-20-26 carib
Leo: the difference, IMHO, is now we can sell easily, at a profit.
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04-20-26 carib
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04-20-26 carib
Good for Spaldo!
my own per AMPX today broke new records, trading above 20$.
that is 18 times more that I initially paid.
Those are the kind of bets that make some real difference, IMHO. |
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04-20-26 carib
for the record: I tested Claude AI on PDVsa bonds.. and the answer, after discussion was:
That’s a fair and insightful test — and the short answer is: for real‑time trading data, a well‑informed human with direct market access will always beat me. |
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04-20-26 leopardo
Let's wait and see.
Nothing different of what we did the last 8 years.... |
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04-20-26 leopardo
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04-20-26 carib
| Savo: I share that view.. if veny trend towards normality continues. |
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04-20-26 savo
| i think that 26% of total claim is too low. Time will tell... |
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04-20-26 spal
LWLG at 14.70
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Bravo - I hope you have a bunch!
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04-20-26 spaldo
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04-20-26 spal
Kuwait has just declared force majeure on oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz
No more oil or refined products will come from Kuwait, at least for the foreseeable future.
🧵 |
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04-20-26 spal
CHINESE Xi Jinping Tells Saudi Crown Prince: Strait of Hormuz Must Stay Open for Global Trade
Chinese President Xi Jinping stated during a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that "the Strait of Hormuz should remain open for normal passage.
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Chickety China |
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04-20-26 carib
After Veny bond sanctions were introduced, I put those bonds on my "dead money account" and considered them worth zilch.
Added some post sanctions lifting, and moved to "live money account".
I account them at market, consider Veny owes me the whole claim, and know that if I sell now I can cash about 26% of said claim.
Difficult to anticipate how the restructuring or debt for equity exchange will work out.
I just know the debtor has assets (liquid by physics, but not by finance) worth a large multiple of total debt.. so debt for equity would make sense.
Do not know if tump has plans or what will happen after Trump. |
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04-20-26 carib
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04-20-26 carib
Amateur: I guess the issue with oil price is: for how long?
if oil goes to 200$ for three months, and then back to 60$.. it is just an hiccup. If it stays at 120$ for years.. it's just compensating for long term inflation.
High oil price is good for renewables, so I am biased on this.. |
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04-20-26 carib
My meter is the present and expected future cost of my living standard. as long as the purchasing power of my estate increases, that is OK.
If the nominal value of my estate doubles, but the price of real estate or cooks doubles too.. there is no real gain.
if assets are liquid, it is irrelevant if they distribute coupons or dividends or just appreciate, except from a taxation point of view.
AAPL shares, btw, historically performed way better than bullion. |
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04-20-26 carib
Sweden has intelligence indicating that Russia is systematically manipulating data to fool Ukraine’s western allies into believing its economy has withstood the strain of its lavish war spending and western sanctions
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04-20-26 amateur
DT gives the impression of being terrified of >120 dollars WTI; thus he might give in a lot. Or scale up war a lot too if he thinks that is the way. Or suspend US oil exports. Or bomb the Vatican. Or ally with Putin. Any or several or all of the above...always declaring total victory.
The only seemingly intelligent move was blockading Iran. Lets see if he can sustain it. |
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04-20-26 spal
The "private political meeting" scheduled for today, Sunday, April 19, 2026, is widely understood among analysts as a high-stakes War Cabinet session at the White House.
CENTCOM Status ... Critical. |
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04-20-26 spal
| Reports indicate the drones targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group and auxiliary support vessels enforcing the blockade. While CENTCOM’s Phalanx CIWS and Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) intercepted a majority of the swarm, unconfirmed reports suggest a "kinetic impact" on a support tender. |
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04-20-26 panasonic
Savo, yes in the context of our fiat money discussion we are all underperforming those who 100% invested in Gold.
I suppose diversification is reason why you are not selling Pdvsa bonds and buying gold right away, otherwise what is the case to stay?
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04-19-26 savo
| if you move to uruguay or switzerland ... then you start to understand what funny money is. |
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04-19-26 savo
pana...take carib.. he trebled ..in 9 years ... that is 12.8% pa.. not bad
say you trebled in 10 years.. that is 11.5% pa... not bad either..
so your slap in the hand ended up being a blessing..
of course it is funny money.... not real money.. but as long as you live in funny money land... it is fine. |
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04-19-26 panasonic
Thanks Savo, food for thought.
I broke my own rule with size of Pdvsa (pre-sanctions), and got a big slap on the hand.
Greed is a sin :-)) |
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04-19-26 savo
pana.. for whatever is worth... barring unforeseen circumstances ..i intend to keep with my bonds all the way and receive the new bonds post restructuring which i expect will trade through every other latam country...
we are in a win win situation... if they call an election soon the evil psycho will win and sanctions will be lifted.. if an election is not called soon.... DT might lift sanctions to propel veni oil production...otherwise it will be just reinvestment of profits..
hence no scenario is worse than today's
the more veni bonds go up the happier I am... |
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04-19-26 panasonic
Savo, good point.
I'll think carefully this one. |
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04-19-26 savo
pana.. leo.. i do not understand that numerology... you paid what you paid for your veni bonds..that is your exposure.. if they go up in price faster than other elements in your portfolio obviously they will become a bigger % of your portfolio... how is that bad?
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04-19-26 savo
victor... i do not support anybody anywhere...
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04-19-26 panasonic
"I will sell only if The % of pdvsa vnz bonds goes higher than 20% of my liquid assets otherwise I keep all The position.
Right now I’m about at 16%"
Leo, what % of total assets?
My case, 10% above total assets will trigger a trim to keep it below 10%. |
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04-19-26 victor
| savo, you used to support these chavista elections and results |
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04-19-26 victor
Iran confirms US interdiction, seizure of Iranian vessel, says will retaliate ‘soon’
Iran’s Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya military headquarters confirmed an attack claimed by the US military on a ship in the Sea of Oman in a statement carried by the Tasnim News Agency.
“The aggressive America, by violating the ceasefire and committing maritime piracy, attacked one of Iran’s commercial ships in the waters of the Sea of Oman by firing upon it and disabling its navigation system by deploying several of its terrorist marines on the deck of the mentioned vessel,” it said, confirming that the ship had been seized.
“We warn that the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond to and retaliate against this armed piracy by the US military,” it added. |
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04-19-26 savo
on the one hand the US says no election in veni for now... on the other hand they do not lift sanctions which means the economy will not gain traction and people and the military will start to revolt...
lose lose for Delcy and the veni oil industry... |
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04-19-26 victor
| Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them. The U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop. The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom. Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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04-19-26 carib
The IRNA accused the US of playing a “blame game,” lying about Iran’s participation in a second round of talks in order to put pressure on the country.
Both sides playing Schrodinger, now?
:-) |
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04-19-26 victor
carib, mcm said it at the madrid rally.
in the past, the chavistas used to boast about having so many elections.
now that they won't be able to cheat, they want nothing to do with elections.
the best way to know if someone is a chavista is to simply ask if they want elections or not.
:-)) |
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04-19-26 spal
| But no doubt about the tension and chance for a flare-up. |
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04-19-26 spal
Iran rejected taking part in the second round of talks with the United States, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Sunday.
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This appears to be a classic bluff for domestic consumption. I believe that they are very much at the table. |
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04-19-26 spal
In less than 10 days the Iranians run out of storage on Kharg Island - they will then have to start shutting in their oil fields which will seriously impair them. As they depressurize solids and waxes in the oil will form plugs in the underlying basins making restart in some cases very difficult.
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04-19-26 spal
but I was reading the iranians are not going
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That is ok - Schrödinger's Trump seems to be able to negotiate with them whether they are there or not. |
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04-19-26 carib
Megánalisis (marzo 2026) muestra a María Corina Machado con 68,9% de intención de voto en escenario espontáneo, frente a 3,1% para Delcy Rodríguez y 0,8% para Diosdado Cabello. En un balotaje MCM–Delcy, 83,1% votaría por MCM y 4,2% por Delcy; en un escenario de tres (MCM, Delcy, Márquez), MCM alcanza 81,2%.
Hence, as Victor wrote, most likely no elections. |
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04-19-26 carib
LVL: Venezuela es "la mejor opción de inversión" en el mundo en este momento
Luis Vicente León, economista, apuntó que Venezuela tiene una capacidad de crecimiento que «no tiene más nadie» y resaltó que el país va en camino de resolver su problema económico. |
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04-19-26 carib
Iran rejected taking part in the second round of talks with the United States, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Sunday.
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04-19-26 carib
Thanks, Spal.. but I was reading the iranians are not going.
(but of course they can be just trying to deceive) |
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04-19-26 spal
| In that case we are close to a settlement ... alert the banks in Zurich. |
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04-19-26 spal
| Since Kushner is heading it assume that "incentives" are now thought to predominate ... |
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04-19-26 spal
Jared Kushner (Special Envoy): Specifically named by President Trump on April 19 as a primary negotiator for the upcoming sessions. Kushner is reportedly tasked with finalizing the "fair and reasonable DEAL" that Trump has publicly touted.
Steve Witkoff (White House Special Envoy): A veteran of the 2025 Muscat and Rome rounds, Witkoff remains the lead diplomatic "harness" for the American side, coordinating directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
JD Vance (Vice President): While he led the initial Islamabad delegation on April 11, latest reports suggest he remains a key oversight figure, though Kushner and Witkoff are leading the "Tuesday" session in the Pakistani capital.
Brad Cooper (CENTCOM Commander): Admiral Cooper’s presence is a "Garrison" signal, representing the military stakes of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the potential for a return to kinetic strikes if negotiations fail.
Michael Anton (Director of Policy Planning): Anton continues to lead the "Expert-Level" negotiations, focusing on the technicalities of the nuclear enrichment caps. |
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04-19-26 carib
| Who exactly are the Americans supposed to meet in Pakistan tomorrow, I dare ask? |
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04-19-26 leopardo
I will sell only if The % of pdvsa vnz bonds goes higher than 20% of my liquid assets otherwise I keep all The position.
Right now I’m about at 16% |
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04-19-26 carib
Scaramucci: Trump wants to be the last Republican president..
"apres moi, le deluge"? |
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04-19-26 carib
There was confusion on Sunday on what role the vice-president would play in new talks. A White House official said Vance would be going to Pakistan, although Trump told ABC that he would not be due to security reasons. Vance’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
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04-19-26 carib
| Leo: used to be small%.. but now tripled.. |
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04-19-26 victor
| Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement! Many of them were aimed at a French Ship, and a Freighter from the United Kingdom. That wasn’t nice, was it? My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations. Iran recently announced that they were closing the Strait, which is strange, because our BLOCKADE has already closed it. They’re helping us without knowing, and they are the ones that lose with the closed passage, $500 Million Dollars a day! The United States loses nothing. In fact, many Ships are headed, right now, to the U.S., Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to load up, compliments of the IRGC, always wanting to be “the tough guy!” We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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04-19-26 leopardo
Carib I think that if the weight of The position is no more than 15/17% of your liquid assets you should keep. Otherwise sell a bit
Money management.
I’m still positive by The way. |
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04-19-26 carib
| DT, MCM, Delcy and others have more options. we, as creditors, do not. |
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04-19-26 carib
The practical question remains, re veny: should we sell @50+..
hold, or buy more? |
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04-19-26 savo
victor... my argument is that unless sanctions are lifted she can not deliver economic recovery.
Without economic recovery venezuelans will start to revolt... now they can.. Delcy can not crack down on disturbers as maduro or chavez could.
If DT wants Delcy to stay licenses are not enough...
I agree that in today's circumstance the psycho will win...but that does not mean Delcy can not call elections... lose and go home.
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04-19-26 carib
Iran claims it is replenishing its missile and drone launchers at a higher speed than it did prior to the war with the US and Israel, the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force commander, Majid Mousavi, said on Sunday, according to Nournews.
The Jerusalem Post could not verify the legitimacy of the footage.
"They have lost this phase of the war! They have lost the Strait, Lebanon, and the region," Mousavi said. |
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04-19-26 carib
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04-19-26 carib
Merlino: wiser to steer away from politics, here.. but fact is votes in Veny were cast already, and, if in doubt, can be cast again under serious international supervision, if desired.
Weather freedom and democracy are good or bad for creditors is a separate issue. |
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04-19-26 carib
Victories are not self-allocated, but attributed by independent referees.
The referee in this case.. is time, I guess. |
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04-19-26 victor
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04-19-26 spal
Vic - I got kind of a boring and diplomatic answer:
Reasoning Behind the "Tie"
Identifying a "winner" in this category is impossible because both sides are playing different games.
Iran is playing a single-player long game focused on the survival of its regime and regional influence.
The U.S. is playing a multi-player short game where the "truth" of a negotiation is often secondary to how that negotiation is perceived by voters in Ohio or allies in Riyadh. |
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04-19-26 victor
| spal, ask the AI who is the bigger bullshitter, dt or iran's leaders :-)) |
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04-19-26 spal
Strait of Hormuz - Operating Hours
Monday - Thursday: 11 AM – 3:30 PM
Friday: Closed
Saturday: 8:30 AM – 11:30 AM
Sunday: Closed |
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04-19-26 spal
IRAN HAS CONTROL OVER ALL HORMUZ TRAFFIC, OFFICIAL SAYS
IRAN’S TOP NEGOTIATOR SAYS SIGNIFICANT GAPS REMAIN WITH U.S.
IRAN SAYS WAR MAY RESUME AT ANY TIME: WSJ |
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04-19-26 victor
savo, Delcy will have no choice but to call early elections
//
no, she won't ... unless she's pressured by the dt admin to have early elections.
she won't because she would lose. |
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04-19-26 savo
Merlino...
if Trumps does not lift sanctions... Delcy will have no choice but to call early elections ..whoever wins..the good or the evil... sanctions will be lifted |
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