12-12-25 savo
carib.. veni is not a communist dictatorship... may be a dictatorship... but certainly not communist... nicaragua idem... which proves that tropical communism is dead... Cuba is and old story... a US fuck up 60 years ago whcih could have been sorted out many times had it not been for the parents of the current cuban renegades...
argentina was not a dictatorship but was on the way to becoming one with the colonization of the courts... the original plan was nestor.. cfk.. .. nestor... cfk... and so on... nestor died so cfk went for reelection which was the mistake... because she could not then get re-elected.. Rubio wanted to put sanctions on CFK... had they done that.. CFK might still be there... things are complex... old labels do not apply. |
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12-12-25 carib
Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia had "leftist" governments for a while, but never were "communist" dictatorships.
Better move back to bond prices, where discussions can be more useful. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: you just confirmed we disagree.
;-)
I agree with Vargas Llosa on the matter. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. i think tropical communism, if by that you refer to nicaragua, cuba and veni, would not exist without US sanctions...
argie, ecuador, bolivia were in that group too... Had the US put personal sanctions on them. argie would still have CFK, Ecuador would still have Correa and Bolivia would still have Evo...
The worst possible strategy to get rid of tropical comunism is to sanction the country and its leaders.
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12-12-25 carib
| Savo, my view is equally simple, concerning lat-am: tropical communism is a disease, and the sooner it's eradicated, the better. But, as I said, your political views and mine are irrelevant, because we have 0 influence... except on buying or selling decisions. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. your political views are very difficult to track.. lately you seem to be all over the place...including assassination.
Mine is very simple... yankees get the fuck out of Latam.. you are not welcome. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: yet again.. we hold opposite political views, and there is little point in repeating them over and over, because neither of us will change such opinions.
The matters actually worth discussing, because we can actually do something about it.. is: selling or buying? Seeking a summary judgement.. or waiting?
Obviously, is one EXPECTS (rather than hopes for) a positive solution soon.. he should probably still buy at current levels.. whilst if one EXPECTS no solution any time soon.. this is probably a good time to sell and forget the issue.
The second practical issue is.. if a restructuring will happen within a couple of years.. is it not better to be in the group of creditors with a summary executable judgement? |
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
i want a restructuring too and that would be very easy to get if the US lifts all sanctions... and returns the southern command to base.
It can be done in 30 seconds... one order.. and one select all and delete. No casualties... no more misery to the people of venezuela... no more exiles.
You seem to believe that Maduro is a variable... he isn't.. he is the constant... the rest is variable...Trump is variable...he will be gone in three years...and his cohort will move into some other occupation. Maduro instead will have 3 more years in Miraflores.
You can have Maduro and a restructuring or Maduro and not a restructuring. But you can not not have Maduro. He is the Sphinx of Giza... hoping that this time will be different and yes.. this time he will go is wasting hope.... in my opinion.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: as you know, our views differ radically, but are irrelevant, because neither of us calls the shots. The fact that US "strategy" on Veny has been either non-existant or ineffective.. is self evident, but of course the effectiveness or lack thereof depends on the goal sought.
My own portfolio goal would be to get a fair restructuring of PDVsa bonds with a radiant future of the debtor, leading to full recovery. The political ideal goal would be the fall of Chavismo, Castrismo and similar obnoxious regimes in Latin America.
In practice, the only thing we can decide is selling, buying more or just waiting.. and in the meanime going to federal court.. or not yet.
I think Trump's goal is.. Trump and family. |
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12-12-25 savo
meanwhile BTC back below 90K... every time BTC approaches Salylor's liquidation lever some "invisible hand" pushes it up..
Rumor is the Trump's sons are heavily invested in BTC.
One of them was recently in Gibraltar, which is a cryto hub in europe.
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
a good negotiator considers all possible outcomes and values the impact of each of them on the innocent bystander... based on the probabilities chooses a course of action.
bad negotiators consider success as the only possible outcome and disregard the possibility the policy does not work.
That mistake has costed us 8 years of coupons... veni 60% of its gdp and 7 million exiles. Of course wealthy venezuelans living luxuriously in Madrid, NYC, Geneva, London and Miami do not care about their fellow nationals trapped in veni.
I do not see anything in the actual strategy that is any better than the old strategy other than higher frequency... for the simple reason that all this air and sea blockades does not affect the regime... they only affect the people in venezuela who will have less goods available and thus more inflation... they are not going to raise against the government because they know they will be picked up at night at home and sent to the helicoide.
We are exactly exactly in the same place we were in Jan 2019..including the excitement... and bond prices are... not surprisingly... at the same level..also including the excitement.
The only real option that I see that would end this nonsense in 24 hours is to accept Maduro's offer, three years without sanctions and then he leaves.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: sanctioned did cripple Veny oil exports, to a point, but closing air and sea space would be quite different.
Not enough for an automatic implosion, but a step in a long walk.
Obviously a faster knock out would be better. |
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12-12-25 carib
The United States has announced new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels it says help move Venezuelan oil, putting more pressure on a major prop of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime a day after it seized a sanctioned tanker likely carrying millions of dollars’ worth of oil off the country’s coast.
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12-12-25 spal
Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew points out that Venezuela competes with also-sanctioned barrels from Russia and Iran.
"Should Venezuelan crude vanish from the market, the impact would be to the sanctioned oil trade ... the impact to the non-sanctioned, legal oil market could be fairly small, as it would be sanctioned cargoes that would fill the gap," he said via email. |
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12-12-25 savo
pt.. immense riches await the Cuban renegades if Maduro leaves.
Anybody wanting to do business in Veni will have to "partner" with them.
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12-12-25 patient-trader
I guess for Rubio and friends Veni is not the main issue. The main issue is Cuba. But you can only have a regime-change in Cuba if you kill their financing sources in Veni.
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12-11-25 savo
carib.. say the US continues stealing vessels that transport veni oil... say veni oil exports go to zero... THEY'VE BEEN THERE ALREADY!!!!
and you knoe nothing happened... the regime has money in foreign currency abroad in banks within friendly regimes or in cryptos enough to continue funding repression if necessary.
The only ones that will suffer are the people of venezuela IN Venezuela.
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12-11-25 carib
| Further direct interventions by the U.S. are expected in the coming weeks targeting ships carrying Venezuelan oil that may also have transported oil from other countries targeted by U.S. sanctions, such as Iran, according to the sources familiar with the matter who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. (AP) |
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12-11-25 carib
from same source:
The Maduro Regime Survives on Illicit Flows The Venezuelan state is no longer funded by its formal economy. Its repression is financed by narcotrafficking, black‑market oil, illegal gold, weapons, and human trafficking.
As the Nobel stated: "Cutting these flows is the mortal blow." Just as Cuba depended on the USSR, Maduro depends on international illicit networks.
Financial asphyxiation produces implosion, not explosion.
A siege shifts the strategic terrain, reduces political costs, and forces internal fractures. Kennedy defeated a nuclear superpower without firing a shot. The same mechanism can dismantle a criminal hub without a single brigade crossing a border. The strategic key remains unchanged: do not attack where the enemy is strong, but where it is structurally weak. |
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12-11-25 carib
From an old Colores..
The recent statement by the Nobel Peace Prize laureate — “Venezuela has already been invaded… it has become the criminal hub of the Americas” — fundamentally reframes the issue. In my new article, I argue that the solution is not invasion, but strategic siege, inspired by Kennedy’s 1962 Doctrine: closing airspace, maritime routes, and land corridors, and cutting the illicit flows that sustain the regime.
Siege, not war, is the decisive blow. |
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12-11-25 carib
Savo: clepto-dictators seldom leave power voluntary.
They are killed, defeated, ousted, or just die. |
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12-11-25 carib
| Savo: did you buy gold in 2000? |
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12-11-25 spal
| RKLB (Rocket Lab) lifting significantly ... Musk has ignited the space tech sector for now with the talk about an IPO for SpaceX. |
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12-11-25 savo
leo..rumors are that Maduro offered Trump a very simple and viable deal, "lift all sanctions and I leave in 3 years".
It was rejected upfront by DT.
I suspect Maduro made the same offer 6 years ago... Had DT accepted it in 2019... Venezuela would be free by now, producing 5 MM barrels of oil and our bonds would at 100...
I hope history does not repeat itself and in 2030, whoever is president in the US, does not have to regret DT making the same mistake twice.
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12-11-25 savo
| I wonder how did the S&P did relative to real estate in St Martin or St Moritz. |
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12-11-25 savo
carib..
on the 5th of Jan 2000 the S&P was 1,470
one once of gold was at 280 dollars.
It took 5.25 ounces of gold to buy 1 S&P
Today the S&P is at 6,901 and an ounce of gold is at 4,274.
It takes 1.61 ounces of gold to buy 1 S&P.
Despite several QEs and successive bailouts... the S&P has been in a bear market for over 25 years when measured in real money. |
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12-11-25 carib
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12-11-25 carib
Colombia not a credible long term solution, IMHO.. even if possibly Maduro is entitled to Colombia nationality.
Petro's time ends next year. |
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12-11-25 carib
| Rosa Yolanda Villavicencio, canciller de Colombia, dijo que si el presidente de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, llegase a salir de su país para una transición en el poder, Colombia le ofrecería protección.(CNN) |
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12-11-25 leopardo
You are right Carib.
Let’s say probability percentuale-wise is good |
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12-11-25 carib
| "venezuela" and "reasonable" in the same sentence might be odd.. |
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12-11-25 leopardo
| It seems pretty reasonable but we never really know... |
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12-11-25 carib
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12-11-25 carib
Savo: my guess is the "trump platinum card", if appropriate enabling legislation is ever passed, could be a gadget for billionaires, as a sort of "just in case" insurance.
Does not make much sense for the ordinary millionaire, because it is expensive, price/quality of life is not that good in the USA, if one does not plan to move the center of interest in the USA it makes little sense, and if your family does not really like the obligation of traveling abroad at least 90 days a years it is not comfortable.
The "gold card" looks like an extortion. |
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12-11-25 leopardo
Carib I frankly don't know when, but this time, I think that the end of Maduro is reasonably certain.
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12-11-25 carib
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12-11-25 savo
| https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/10/politics/trump-gold-card-1-million-dollar-visa |
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12-11-25 savo
Trump admin previews ‘platinum card’
The website also previews that a “Trump Platinum Card” is coming soon and invites foreign nationals to add their names to a waiting list. For $5 million dollars, the administration promises that eligible applicants will be able to “spend up to 270 days in the United States without being subject to U.S. taxes on non-U.S. income.”
“Foreign nationals can sign up now and secure their places on the waiting list for the Trump Platinum Card. When launched, and upon receipt of a $15,000 DHS processing fee and $5 million contribution, they will have the ability to spend up to 270 days in the United States without being subject to U.S. taxes on non-U.S. income,” the website reads.
The site does not specify when the platinum option will be available. |
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12-11-25 savo
carib..
US pressure on Veni over the last 10 years, it started with OBAMA, (sanctions, default, financial isolation, and now gun boat diplomacy and outright caribbean piracy) has not produced the expected political change. Instead of revising the policy the cuban renegades doubled down at every turn making the life the people of venezuela more miserable than before
For me the discussion ends there... as they have not been able to produce the result in a relative short period of time without harming innocent bystanders.
I detest the Veni opposition because they support those actions form their luxurious flats in Madrid, Miami and NY financed by the money stolen from Citgo, USaid and Monomeros.
That does not make me pro-cuban or pro-Maduro. |
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12-11-25 carib
Savo: same person can be called "terrorist" or "freedom fighter", depending on which side one is on, and which opinions he holds.
Here the parameter should just be bond prices: they go up when there is an hint Trump ramps up military pressure.
If we go back to "cubanisation".. our money is lost.
I hope there is a regime change.. in Habana. |
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12-11-25 savo
QE is back.. as expected...
Fed says it will start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/fed-says-will-start-reserve-management-treasury-bill-buying-2025-12-10/
the "technical" reminds me of "transitory".. "Symmetrical" and other Fed BS |
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12-11-25 savo
The oil tanker seized by the US
should read...
The oil tanker ROBBED by the US... |
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