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11-28-20  savo

merlino..

constitutions are usually beautiful ... but are they respected in full?..

I think that Posner is stating a fact more than a wish.

11-28-20  amigo-latino

Gary Becker(Nobel Prize winner in economics) and Posner ran an economics reasoning blog called Becker Posner blog for many years. A very good blog ceased working after the death of Becker.

I cannot imagine Becker teaming up with an idiot in running an economics blog!

11-28-20  carib

Merlino: yes and no.
Unless you are arguing in favour of allowing private ownership of nuclear weapons too... for example.
"Both sides".. are not and should not in my opinion be equally armed.

11-28-20  savo

pana... Paris burning...again.

11-28-20  Merlino

When, for example, the funding fathers wrote about "the right to bear arms".. they only knew of single shot pistols and muskets, but never saw a military grade automatic machine gun, or a RPG.
.....
As far as I know free arms tenancy was accepted as a way people could resist unpopular govs and dictators which represented a potentially larger danger than isolated criminals or gangs

Let’s say both sides have improved arms technology since then...unfortunately

11-28-20  Merlino

Arrogant idiot....or worse_
.........
Why?

Bcz the US Constitution which I have not read have survived and likely benefited local people last 250 years or so.

It was not an invention coming out from the blue. I presume it was a compilation of simple norms in use by society otherwise it would have not endured so long. Then it was nothing new but represented about 6 or 7 mm years of man/ humanoid evolution and social behavior.

Same with old law compilations like Hamurabi’s code, Ronman and Bizantian laws,, etc.

Of course this is to be improved and updated...however carefully and slowly...not in a hurry throwing it by the board as this arrogant person suggest


11-28-20  carib

Posner has a valid point, but the question is how to solve the following conundrum.
When, for example, the funding fathers wrote about "the right to bear arms".. they only knew of single shot pistols and muskets, but never saw a military grade automatic machine gun, or a RPG.
The question, IMHO, is that leaving judges the right to give modern, creative interpretations of the Constitution, not aligned with its spirit, would turn the judges into constitutional legislators, with the likelyhood that different judges will give entirely different innovative interpretation.
Better respect the text, with a pinch of salt.. and approve derivate legislation to clarify the obsolete implications.

11-28-20  amigo-latino

_Arrogant idiot....or worse_

Probablty, arrogant. But I am incapable of judging.


_(Posner)is an American jurist and economist who was a United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago from 1981 until 2017,[1] and is a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. He is a leading figure in the field of law and economics, and was identified by The Journal of Legal Studies as the most cited legal scholar of the 20th century.[2] He is widely considered to be one of the most influential legal scholars in the United States.[3][4][5][6][7]
Posner attended Yale University, graduating in 1959 with an A.B. degree summa cum laude in English literature and being elected to Phi Beta Kappa in his junior year. He then attended the Harvard Law School, graduating in 1962 with an LL.B. magna cum laude as the valedictorian of his class[12] and president of the Harvard Law Review.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Posner

Merlino, thanks for alerting.

What a wonder, only in America, an idiot can be most cited legal scholar of the 20th century.
An idiot can graduate with summa cum laude and magna cum laude.

11-28-20  carib

Elderly, rich and influential people from developed countries.. that is where most global power resides. Factual statement.

11-28-20  carib

The punishment for wrong political decisions.. is non re-election.

11-28-20  carib

Spal: the polity does not work like that.
Laws adopted in constitutionally correct ways do not expose legislators or ministers to the risk of personal liability towards persons negatively affected.
Abuse of power by authorities can give place to liability, but the bill goes to the taxpayer.
Citizens or corporations who cause damages to other parties caused by disrespect of existing regulations or reckless behaviour are indeed liable for the damage.


11-28-20  spal

This disease hits predominately elderly, relatively well-off people in rich, developed countries - and that's why it matters

====

I think the more we shine a light on this - the more thoughtful and measured our response can be. That is all.

11-28-20  spal

People who do not abide by required precautions should be personally liable for trillions of damages caused.


====

Is the converse also true that people who zealously push unnecessary and heavy handed measures that caused needless knock-on damage also personally liable?


If you can answer yes, then it makes the first part more reasonable.

11-28-20  patient-trader

My point is simply that in the main Covid triggers a slightly early death in those already well on the way.
...
Spal, the argument is futile and you know it. This disease hits predominately elderly, relatively well-off people in rich, developed countries - and that's why it matters. Poor Africans or Indians are however relatively less affected by Covid because they die usually early anyway if they have a weak immune system. So they are fit to fight COVID.

Taking it all together, your suggestion to let the virus run boils down to an accelerated rejuvenation of the Western gene pool by eliminating the vulnerable. This is however not necessary, as Western nations have the resources to fight this thing, not with better genes, but money, brains, and power. And me, looking forward like a baby boomer, hope that AI, Robotics will enable our children to feed and nurse us through the next pandemic.

We do not have to descend to African levels.

11-28-20  carib

Ps: the worst possible combination is Covid+cult-like belief
that the bug will not hit the faithfuls.
If the religious fundamentalists lived in total isolation, and did not mind getting decimated, I would say it's just their problem, and be relieved by the fact their innocent kids are unlikely to die because of age immunity.
Unfortunately fundamentalists mostly live in populated areas, and I do not see why the laymen should suffer the consequences of the other bunch's follies.
People who do not abide by required precautions should be personally liable for trillions of damages caused.

11-28-20  carib

Spal: I concur.
the cost/benefits of different forms of lockdowns must be considered, in terms of dollars.. covid deaths avoided.. and additional non-covid deaths generated.
Pricing human lives is the difficult element of the equation.

What is IMHO certain is that Covid-denial has a high and total un-necessary cost.
Avoiding mass gatherings, wearing masks, washing hands, closing discos and watching football matches on TV rather than in the stadium can save thousands of lives and has a minuscule cost.
A temporary, total localised lockdown, Wuhan style, had a significant temporary cost, but had very good results, partial, ineffective prolonged lockdowns have a gigantic cost, and more limited benefits.

The least bad solution is to have a disciplined, intelligent and well informed population that will spontaneously follow reasonable directions, legal prohibition of a limited number of particularly dangerous activities, massive, free of charge access to rapid testings, vast expansion of emergency medical facilities, and warp speed vaccine approval and distribution.

11-28-20  spal

11-28-20 carib

Spal: being all mortals, our own death is utterly inevitable.
One could argue, in sophistry, that getting murdered today rather than living a normal life.. is just anticipating by a tad an inevitable event, counting in aeons, hence no big deal.

=====

Carib - I would not and did not say this. It is mere sophistry as you rightly suggest to stretch the comparison as you did.


When we are discussing issues which involve solutions such as the lockdown of entire societies we should be sober enough to properly discuss the actual risks - certainly at this point.


My point is simply that in the main Covid triggers a slightly early death in those already well on the way.

Now whether or not anyone like to die remains entirely a different matter and maybe we all decide to take the exact same measures ... but we need to look at this face on.

======

"... but that does not make the result look better from the point of view of people at risk."

And here is the crux ... of course it does not make it look better for their perspective.

But the perspective is not theirs exclusively ... the lockdown means that you must view it from a broader perspective otherwise you are not entitled to lock everyone down.

All I ask if for people to look at this with clear eyes.




11-28-20  carib

Spal: being all mortals, our own death is utterly inevitable.
One could argue, in sophistry, that getting murdered today rather than living a normal life.. is just anticipating by a tad an inevitable event, counting in aeons, hence no big deal.

In real life, there have been a couple of million Covid deaths, so far globally. with the average age of the deceased approaching 80, one can conclude that in life expectation loss terms that could count only for some 15% of the total... but that does not make the result look better from the point of view of people at risk.

The debate has not evolved much since the spring. The death toll has, but mostly along the anticipated curves.
East Asia faring way better than Europe, the americas and India.

11-28-20  spal

11-28-20 Merlino

Spal....any idea whether it will be a smooth gov transition or more of a chaotic situation?

Not easy to understand from abroad the real mood of the country


====

Merlino - hard to tell, always a bit chaotic here. No doubt it is a more difficult time with accelerated changes forcing a lot of issues on the table.

I do know that the country remains extremely resilient with the capability to respond as needed.

Apologies for the non-answer.


11-28-20  spal

excess deaths.

===

Defined?

If the death was going to happen soon, but simply got accelerated, it might be excess in a limited sense only.

If this thing wiped out a cohort of children ... then it is another matter entirely.

Not all deaths are the same ... as hard as it might be for people to be sober enough to discuss it in this way.

11-28-20  spal

Richard Posner

===

I know little really about the US Constitution, but clearly understand more that this guy.

I do know that it greatly empowers the rights of man proclaiming that there are actual inalienable rights and I also know that it incorporates very important checks and balances to power. None of this requires contemporizing in the sense Posner proclaims - it was - as best as those who formulated the key concepts could make it - an attempt to be timeless.

Posner is simply an example of an egotistical progressive who thinks he knows what is better for you and wants to use his position to legislate change (from the bench) given his superior understanding of contemporary society ... about the only thing he left out in his criticism was to slander then as "white males" ...

Time is not on the side of the Posners any more ...

11-28-20  patient-trader

The German statistic office publishes regularly updated weekly charts of deaths compared to previous years.
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Corona/Gesellschaft/bevoelkerung-sterbefaelle.html

It appears to me that since the second wave started there are now excess deaths.

11-28-20  spal

old people show shameful cowardice facing the inevitable.

===

Not my experience - mostly brave, realistic, spiritual and philosophical.

Shameful maybe that they are mostly bundled together in tinder boxes called nursing homes ..,.

11-28-20  spal

11-28-20 pillz

Schpal .... ??


=====

The exact point was that the article was dangerous enough to the narrative that they felt compelled or were compelled to retract it.

Examine their own justifications for doing so:

"dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic"

Dangerous in what sense? The danger maybe in undermining the authority of those wholly invested in authoritarian controls and measures such as lockdowns.

Minimizing ... yes ... that is what it does.

The article said look at the impact not in terms of individual counts or the standard of "one death is one death too many" ... use perspective - look at the proportions versus the actuarial death rates. And you will see that all that happened was an slight acceleration of the end of life of a proportion of the oldest where this cause supplanted the manifold others that were ready to otherwise carry them off.

Now we can later be normative and/or suitable reverent about life - but we must also understand what we are talking about.

Now this bit is what Americans charmingly call "covering your ass" ...

Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


I'll leave it there.


Then they try to slander here with faint praise:


As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.


Honestly, logic and intelligence tells you that medical or any other types of numbers and statistical time series are still open and able to be interpreted by mathematical processes.

Finally we have:

” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19 ..."


Well in a sense it does trivialize the impact and that is why they are looking to undercut any approach that seeks to bring a broader perspective to balance the otherwise panic based pavlovian response that they otherwise expect from the idiot public.




11-28-20  savo

pt... i think is better to use "older" people than "old" people...

11-28-20  carib

Concerning "dead wood"... certainly a society financially dominated by elderly, no longer active people would be a fertile breeding ground for revolutions.

11-28-20  carib

Some people, for self interest or ignorance, have sets of mistaken ideas.
The internet is a goldmine for theories that help justifying those mistaken ideas.
As simple as that.
I am not referring to opinions, which are by nature subjective (neither right nor wrong in absolute terms).
I am referring to facts.

:-(

11-28-20  Merlino

Spal....any idea whether it will be a smooth gov transition or more of a chaotic situation?

Not easy to understand from abroad the real mood of the country

11-28-20  Merlino

Judge Richard Posner sees “absolutely no value” in studying the U.S. Constitution because “eighteenth-century guys” couldn’t have possibly foreseen the culture and technology of today.
.........
Arrogant idiot....or worse

Does not fit the narrative does it ... and given the cost, fall out and disruption I do not regard this as a mere stupidity.
..........
Voila.....no large noticiable jump in annual deaths....same same as in Sweden

There will be huge pressure to get rid of us dead-wood.
......
They already working on this idea I am afraid


11-28-20  patient-trader

. they would have died anyway
...
Spal, yep, old people show shameful cowardice facing the inevitable. Just ironizing a bit.

I very much wonder how these discussions will go when my baby-boomer generation will weigh on everyones pockets. Even if we manage to hold on to some assets there will be no one around to wipe our asses. There will be huge pressure to get rid of us dead-wood.

11-28-20  savo

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday that the United States...


yes.. he has been saying and saying and saying... he had 3 years to sort the issue by going there liberating them and in the process liberating venezuela... but he didn´t do it because his boss´ only obsecion is the the S&P...and doing the right thing costs money and is bad for that S&P...

so Pompeo... shut the f*ck up...

11-28-20  amigo-latino

_Seventh Circuit Judge Richard Posner sees “absolutely no value” in studying the U.S. Constitution because “eighteenth-century guys” couldn’t have possibly foreseen the culture and technology of today.

In a recent op-ed for Slate, Judge Posner, a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, argued that the original Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and the post–Civil War amendments “do not speak to today.”

“I see absolutely no value to a judge of spending decades, years, months, weeks, day, hours, minutes, or seconds studying the Constitution, the history of its enactment, its amendments, and its implementation (across the centuries — well, just a little more than two centuries, and of course less for many of the amendments),” he wrote. “Eighteenth-century guys, however smart, could not foresee the culture, technology, etc., of the 21st century.”_

11-28-20  amigo-latino

Frankness hurts
_"I see absolutely no value to a judge of spending decades, years, months, weeks, day, hours, minutes, or seconds studying the Constitution, the history of its enactment, its amendments, and its implementation._
Richard M. Posner, ex-Appeals court judge of US.

11-28-20  pillz

By REUTERS NOVEMBER 28, 2020 03:45
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Friday that the United States "unequivocally condemns" a Venezuelan court's conviction of six former executives of U.S. refiner Citgo of corruption charges and called for them to be sent home.
"Having already spent over three years wrongfully detained in Venezuela on these specious charges, the majority of the time in horrific prison conditions, these six individuals should be immediately returned to the United States," Pompeo said of the six, who were sentenced on Thursday to more than five years of prison.

11-28-20  pillz

Schpal .... ??


A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19
By YANNI GU | November 27, 2020

Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.

We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.

In accordance with our standards for transparency, we are sharing with our readers how we came to this decision. The News-Letter is an editorially and financially independent, student-run publication. Our articles and content are not endorsed by the University or the School of Medicine, and our decision to retract this article was made independently.

Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.

Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.

Because of these inaccuracies and our failure to provide additional information about the effects of COVID-19, The News-Letter decided to retract this article. It is our duty as a publication to combat the spread of misinformation and to enhance our fact-checking process. We apologize to our readers.

11-28-20  spal

https://web.archive.org/web/20201126223119/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19


... the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases

...Yes we know that Spal.

... the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.

OK ...


As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease.

... Oh really ???

====

So NO (statistically significant) overall increase in the yearly amount of deaths ... they would have died anyway ... people die.

===


Does not fit the narrative does it ... and given the cost, fall out and disruption I do not regard this as a mere stupidity.



11-28-20  savo

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
7h
Biden can only enter the White House as President if he can prove that his ridiculous “80,000,000 votes” were not fraudulently or illegally obtained. When you see what happened in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia & Milwaukee, massive voter fraud, he’s got a big unsolvable problem!

11-28-20  savo

do not worry pills... when they start going up ... you will remember that you have them...

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