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07-01-22  spal

Bond - yes

07-01-22  bond

But here's the troubling part. If that off-the-low rally doesn't come soon, more pain might be coming. "Of the six bear markets that didn't reach the low within two months, three (1946, 1973, and 2000) dragged on for more than six months before the next rally of 20% (or more) commenced," Bespoke found.
.......................................

Spal, October is not ober.....

07-01-22  bond

official early close ahead of the July 4th holiday

07-01-22  bond

U.S. May Be Already in a Technical Recession

As fears of a "technical recession" grow, bad news is bad news for now. The news yesterday that the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP nowcast model is running at -1% is the big worry for the US equity market right now. If Q2 GDP was to be released today (comes out on 28 July) then the US would likely be in a technical recession. Inflate away is the bottom line, and equity markets will be fine with growth derived from reprocessed inflation.

07-01-22  panasonic

Spal, exactly we are at early stages, can deteriorate or improve depending on Petro's ability to balance markets vs socialist agenda.

07-01-22  spal

In his weekly Flow Show note, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote Friday that in real terms, government bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-stocks-bonds-on-track-for-worst-year-since-post-civil-war-commodities-best-since-post-wwii?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A1

07-01-22  spal

Ok - something to watch - did not see any other chatter ... but maybe ...

07-01-22  panasonic

"En serio? I don't see evidence."

Spal, friend of mine needed 3 days close operation from pesos to dollars, not a huge amount. Colombian CB hikes rates in consequence.

07-01-22  panasonic

"thanks, but why is btc still trading at 20k?"

Vic there is a lot of money laundry going on, moving from crypto platform to bank accounts will become a challenge imnsho.

07-01-22  savo

are there people doing that kind of analysis????

if this guy would plot those numbers agains the fed .. he would see that the market goes down for as long as the fed is hawk and goes up as soon as the fed goes dove...

There is nothing more than that...it is all liquidity and then there is of course US imbecility like taking out of the market with sanction Russia, Veni and Iran simultaneously and expecting oil prices not to go up...or printing 5trn dollars that the banking sector turns into 50 trn and expecting inflation to remain low...

But more or less that covers it all.



07-01-22  spal

It typically takes the "S&P 500 244 days to reach the 20% threshold for a bear market, so at 161 days for the current period, the S&P 500 actually got to bear market territory quicker than average," Bespoke found. "Of the 14 prior bear markets, only four reached bear market territory faster than the current period (1946, 1987, 2009, and 2020), and of those, only two (1987 and 2020) were bear markets that started from all-time highs."

Market watchers hope, though, is for a fast bounce, too. "Once the S&P 500 reaches the 20% threshold, forward returns tend to be better than average, especially over the following year," Bespoke said. In more than half the 14 bear markets (8), the low was within two months of the 20% threshold being reached.

But here's the troubling part. If that off-the-low rally doesn't come soon, more pain might be coming. "Of the six bear markets that didn't reach the low within two months, three (1946, 1973, and 2000) dragged on for more than six months before the next rally of 20% (or more) commenced," Bespoke found.

07-01-22  Merlino

CCB to 7.5%….CCB will likely be the first important target of Petro, as he would like to print and spend freely.
Last essentially serious CB in America, probably. If I am right Colombia has not taken zeros out of their currency since 1930s.
RE transactions apparently frozen (or seriously reduced) since election day

07-01-22  paxwax

An overly-muscular ruble creates headaches for the Russian economy:
Rusia está desesperada con la fortaleza del rublo: Moscú busca "países amigos" para comprar divisas y debilitarlo - elEconomista.es

https://www.eleconomista.es/economia/noticias/11844272/06/22/Rusia-esta-desesperada-con-la-fortaleza-del-rublo-busca-paises-amigos-para-comprar-divisas-y-debilitarlo.html

07-01-22  bond

CS

The Venezuelan economy has continued recovering over the past few months, in-line with our expectations. We find a great deal of evidence, both quantitative and qualitative, that supports our view of strong dynamism. The Maduro de-facto government has made certain gestures suggesting that a more market-based economy is here to stay. To be clear, we do not think that Venezuela’s policymakers are doing a great job at fostering the best conditions for economic growth and improvement in social indicators. However, the authorities’ previous precedents, marked with expropriations, price controls, and distortionary subsidies, make the current situation look good. No, the country has not been fixed, as some domestically are currently suggesting. But we think it is back from the dead.

07-01-22  victor

Some Filipinos are concerned that the Marcos family, now in control of the Philippines, wil abuse their power to unlock cash and assets they have stashed in offshore accounts. It is also feared that the second Marcos presidency will be as brutal as the first.

Bonifacio Ilagan, a martial law survivor, led other activists who survived torture and human rights abuses during the Marcos regime in taking an oath to "guard against tyranny, falsehoods, and the trampling of people's rights and livelihood."


“It’s a nightmare,” Ilagan said before a group of aging activists and their young supporters at a shrine for martial law victims, “But this is our reality now. We need to accept it. Can you imagine we were young when we fought Marcos Sr.? Now I’m 70 and we’re facing Marcos Jr. It’s hard to accept.”

The group vowed to resist all forms of historical revisionism and called on Marcos to recognize and atone for the human rights violations during his father’s regime.

07-01-22  spal

.seems that a bank run is speeding up.
===

En serio? I don't see evidence.

07-01-22  spal

at what BTC/USD price will Michael Saylor be liquidated?

===

He should be liquidated simply for the sentence below - pure babble.

07-01-22  victor

pana, thanks, but why is btc still trading at 20k?

07-01-22  panasonic

Vic, crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital plunges into liquidation as market crash takes toll.

Domino effect...

07-01-22  victor

pana, cornelius steynberg.. 29,421 bitcoins fraud.

//

Jun 30, 2022

CFTC Cites $1.7 Billion MLM In Its 'Largest Fraud Scheme Case Involving Bitcoin'

The agency alleges Cornelius Steynberg used a multilevel marketing scheme to bring in over 29.4K Bitcoin.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit today against Cornelius Johannes Steynberg and Mirror Trading International Proprietary Limited (MTI), charging them with fraud and registration violations.

The complaint accuses Steynberg of engaging in an international fraudulent multilevel marketing (MLM) scheme that brought in 29,421 BTC, worth over $1.7 billion. The agency says Steynberg also used his company MTI in the scheme, which ran for nearly three years from May 18, 2018, through March 30, 2021.

The civil action was entered at the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas.

"The little trading that Defendants did was unprofitable, and they misappropriated essentially all of the at least 29,421 Bitcoin accepted from participants," said CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson in a press release. "Fraudsters often take full advantage of new technology, global connectivity, and perceived lack of a cop on the beat to perpetrate their scams."

07-01-22  panasonic

Vic, yes..seems that a bank run is speeding up.

07-01-22  victor

pana, merlino, and the exchange rate is 4100+ per usd.

07-01-22  victor

pana, merlino, colombia central bank raised interest rates from 6 to 7.5%. largest increase in history.

07-01-22  savo

bond.. meanwhile another US foreign policy fiasco by US foreign policy amateurs... and a dumb president

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/GehAR0h4GdI

07-01-22  bond

bond... Zelensky now has his Netflix series...."Servant of the People"
.................................
Savo, yeah, that rally exists. :-)
Sean Penn was a second time in Kiev as he wants to make a movie out of the war.....the Comedian will get an Oskar, no doubt.

06-30-22  savo

at what BTC/USD price will Michael Saylor be liquidated?

Should be around 19k...


“We find the global acceptance, brand recognition, ecosystem vitality, network dominance, architectural resilience, technical utility, and community ethos of Bitcoin to be persuasive evidence of its superiority as an asset class for those seeking a long-term store of value,” Saylor said after the intial disclosure
(MSTR)




06-30-22  panasonic

Merlino, problem is that Fed needs higher rates to cool down inflation, not working w/o making dollar even stronger.

06-30-22  Merlino

strong demand of investment grade paper in USD
...................................
still very low yields but cleanest dirty shirt around...a very sh*ty shirt anyway

06-30-22  savo

bond... Zelensky now has his Netflix series...."Servant of the People"

06-30-22  bond

Amid the myriad concerns facing markets as of late, stocks are on track to close out the worst first half of a year in decades. Based on Wednesday's closing prices, the S&P 500 is set to post a 19.9% decline for the first six months of the year — its worst performance since 1970. For the month of June alone, the index is on track to slide by 7.6%.

Was someone trading in 1970?

What caused 1970 stock market crash:
The crash came after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system over the previous two years, with the associated 'Nixon Shock' and United States dollar devaluation under the Smithsonian Agreement. It was compounded by the outbreak of the 1973 oil crisis in October of that year.

06-30-22  panasonic

Merlino, strong demand of investment grade paper in USD, Powell must be knocking his head against the wall for not hiking in Nov.

06-30-22  Merlino

Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach
·
Jun 16

30-year yield took out the 2018 closing high today only to powerfully reverse by 25 bp. This action is called a “throw over” and often marks an important trend reversal.
................................
A fortnight latter it looks he has been right

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