01-11-26 spal
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: VENEZUELAN OIL COULD BE USED TO REFILL THE SPR.
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01-11-26 victor
| savo, technically, nm still has diplomatic immunity. |
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01-11-26 victor
savo, Maduro...move on... he was the figure head
//
for the time being, there is no moving away from nm.
as of today, he is the recognized president by vz.
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01-11-26 savo
victor... you have a fixation with Maduro...move on... he was the figure head... and as such was removed so that the regime could be maintained. Of course under supervision which was always my point... better to work with the guys that are there than to reinvent a new government with people that have proved to be very incompetent during the Guaido fiasco.
It is right that Trump meets with MCM... she will eventually be president of Veni because that is what the people want...
but not for now as she is not very clever ...
veni is a mess.. it needs clever people that know how the system works...
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01-11-26 carib
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01-11-26 spal
6 B-2 Spirits just landed at Diego Garcia. That’s half the entire U.S. stealth fleet.
Dozens of KC-135 tankers have surged to Qatar since Jan 5th.
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Iran - apparently soon. |
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01-11-26 spal
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01-11-26 carib
As foreign minister of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro travelled to Damascus in 2007 for a highly publicised meeting with then-president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, en route to Tehran.Maduro was ostensibly in the region to strengthen his country’s ties with others similarly hostile to Washington.
But behind closed doors, his visit had another purpose: a secret meeting with a senior Hizbollah commander, integral to its overseas operations.
an orange outfit is the right garb, now. |
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01-11-26 carib
Así, "¡NO HABRÁ MÁS PETRÓLEO NI DINERO (de Venezuela) PARA CUBA!": "¡CERO! Les sugiero (a Cuba) que lleguen a un acuerdo antes de que sea demasiado tarde", añadió el republicano, que desde la captura de Nicolás Maduro vienen pronosticando que el gobierno cubano caerá pronto.
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01-11-26 carib
SPAL: I would say..
for new ventures, the issue is in how many years to amortise the new investment.
with zero political risk, the duration could safely be long.
Besides, the big issue is which taxes or royalties must be paid to Veny.
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01-11-26 spal
All those numbers presented by whoever spal is quoting are absolute nonsense... and of no importance whatsoever...oil companies will queue to go back into veni..because they know perfectly well that oil prices are now being repressed by whatever agreement trump has made with the saudis...
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This argument has zero to do with the production challenges and everything to to do with someone who thinks they have a fix on the price of oil ... if so the you would make a hell of a lot more money simply expressing that view on the futures market ... but here you are stuck for a decade in Venezuelan bonds. |
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01-11-26 spal
Carib - Chevron has an advantage, as you stated, it is operating off fully amortized equipment. The estimates I read are that its marginal cost is $25-30 (that includes lifting, blending and transport). It has sunk capital and deferred maintenance. It has legacy joint ventures (Petroboscan, Petropiar, Petroindependiente) it has existing wells, staff, pipelines, and export pathways. So $25-30 is the cost to Chevron of keeping “existing barrels” flowing. This is NOT the same as entering cold.
Now Chevron probably won’t want to share its advantages - logically. And it will have difficulties scaling them.
Chevron can:
Hold production flat
Incrementally raise output (10–20%)
Capture cash flow at $60
Chevron cannot:
Double or triple production
Rebuild national infrastructure
Finance upgraders and pipelines
Chevron is:
Extracting legacy value
Not rebuilding the system
Acting as a cash-flow scavenger, not a development investor
Remember also:
Venezuelan crude sold at $15–$25/bbl discounts via opaque channels.
Middlemen (often Chinese or Russian traders) captured $5–$10/bbl in arbitrage.
Venezuela netted maybe $40–45/bbl on oil trading at ~$60 Brent.
So the 1&2 are the only things removed from the scenario. These are the main initial effects of removing sanctions. The rest depends on increased production and if you understand the above you will acknowledge the challenge.
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01-11-26 carib
Agree with Victor, on this, but it's water under the bridge, now.
Getting rid of Diosdado next step. |
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01-11-26 victor
| savo, telling cuba "no more oil or $$" is moving forward, not rewinding. |
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01-11-26 victor
savo, The US is rewinding on a policy that failed during 8 years
//
not true.
yielding to nm, as you wanted, would've been rewinding.
putting nm in a federal prison is moving forward, as in panama. |
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01-11-26 victor
savo, nm was arrested only a week ago.
and it's not whatever.
it's holding a gun over dr & co's head.
the fact is that dt has agreed to meet mcm this coming week. |
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01-11-26 savo
merlino .. little we knew about the magnitude and impact of sanctions coming against Veni
sanctions that achieved nothing other than completing the destruction of an economy initiated by Chavez and forced a default
Gladly the US decided to end with that nonsense and start the reconstruction of veni. |
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01-11-26 savo
victor..
whatever..
the regime is collaborating...
sanctions are being removed...
The US is rewinding on a policy that failed during 8 years
and there were no free and fair elections or an opposition puppet...
the puppet is the same regime
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01-11-26 Merlino
| I.e we have been buying into 2017 decreasing prices bcz it made technical/valuation sense to us...little we knew about the magnitude and impact of sanctions coming against Veni |
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01-11-26 Merlino
The part that I do not know is were do we creditor fit in that scheme.
...............................
Bond mkt prices will increasingly incorporate all info public and inside one I presume |
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01-11-26 victor
savo, which is what I have been saying for years... first lift sanctions
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not really.
first remove nm by force, to show dr & co what's coming to them if they don't collaborate, then the rest.
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01-11-26 victor
Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will. THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT
Jan 11, 2026, 6:27 AM |
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01-11-26 savo
us-may-lift-more-venezuela-sanctions-next-week-bessent-says-2026-01-10
as said many times... removing sanctions takes 5 seconds... "select all" and "delete".
easier than doing a Gaza and killing 70,000 innocent people to remove a regime that is delighted to collaborate anyway. |
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01-11-26 savo
victor...if the US is going to hold the cash they have to protect it from disorganized claims.
At some point somebody will have to sit with all creditors and find some kind of agreement.
I do not know how that will be done or when given that the US plan is for "a long time".
We knew the US wanted to install a puppet as president of Veni. MCM thought that puppet was going to be her or somebody nominated by her.
What the opposition never imagined was that the puppet was going to be the regime itself (more easily controllable than a psychotic woman)...which is what I have been saying for years... first lift sanctions... then let the economy recover... then free and fair elections.
The part that I do not know is were do we creditor fit in that scheme. |
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01-11-26 leopardo
| https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-may-lift-more-venezuela-sanctions-next-week-bessent-says-2026-01-10/ |
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01-11-26 savo
and there is a third element and the most important one... future oil prices about which nobody has a clue.
All those numbers presented by whoever spal is quoting are absolute nonsense... and of no importance whatsoever...oil companies will queue to go back into veni..because they know perfectly well that oil prices are now being repressed by whatever agreement trump has made with the saudis...
with copper at 13,000 silver at 80 ..gold at 4500..etc... and the fed In QE mode for the foreseeable future to finance a 2 trn fiscal deficit...oil at 60 is out of wack with reality.
Exxon may not be interested having a pretty good deal day-light robbing Guyana.. but other companies do not have a country to loot.
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01-11-26 carib
Iran has been cut off from the outside world since Thursday after the regime imposed a near total internet blackout and shut down communications in the republic.
Hope protestors will not get butchered, but the Iran clerics should rot in hell.. |
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01-11-26 carib
Spal: it is no secret, sadly.
But going back to "production costs".. I think there are two different components:
1) initial investment required, amortised in XX years
2) actual opex of extraction+refining
For example, Chevron already has, and fully amortised, its Orinoco oil refining facility in Pescagoula, Mississippi. |
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01-11-26 savo
Exclusive: US may lift more Venezuela sanctions next week, Bessent says
By David Lawder
January 10, 2026
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-may-lift-more-venezuela-sanctions-next-week-bessent-says-2026-01-10/
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01-10-26 spal
But the point is: how long will emergency protection last?
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Until something else crazier comes along ... o tempora, o mores! |
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01-10-26 spal
Carib - we are onto a new financial theory, but I promise not to spread it wider until we are both billionaires.
But yes, very true. |
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01-10-26 carib
Spal: on amortisation in real estate.
Not only what you say is true, but I would go much further:
Imagine I bought a building for a million $ in a good area 50 years ago, amortising 2% p.a. now, in accounting, it should be worth zero, whilst in reality it is not worth only the initial 1 million, but rather 4 or 5.
In power plants, actual value is not always decreasing along with amortisation, if properly maintained, but oftentimes given the value of energy produced is higher now that 25 years ago, also the value of the working plant increased over time. |
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01-10-26 carib
Merlino/SPAL: the order per se is reasonable, because given the long line of summary judgements outstanding, in the absence of such order the funds would be garnished as soon as they are credited, defeating their purpose.
But the point is: how long will emergency protection last?
Settling a sovereign default by summary judgements is clearly unrealistic, but eventually a reasonable restructuring letting market forces play they roles is required, and excessive tampering by arbitrary government decisions tends to be nefarious. |
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01-10-26 spal
it clearly indicates that the funds are the property of Veni and not of Usa.
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Otherwise they'd be exposed to existing creditors as a fraudulent preference. This is the risk prior to those claims being settled. |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/safeguarding-venezuelan-oil-revenue-for-the-good-of-the-american-and-venezuelan-people/ |
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01-10-26 Merlino
Regarding the decree I like that it clearly indicates that the funds are the property of Veni and not of Usa...diminishing risks of outright piracy as many have claimed
Sec. 5. Treatment of Foreign Government Deposit Funds. (a) In holding the Foreign Government Deposit Funds, the Secretary of the Treasury shall:
(i) designate such funds in a manner that clearly reflects their status as sovereign property of the Government of Venezuela held in custody by the United States, and not as the property of the United States; |
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01-10-26 spal
but guess what? the value of the plant is still not far from 100MM$, for a number of reasons.. so all the projected costs used to start were deliberately excessively pessimistic.
I guess people looking at veny oil right now are applying the very same pessimistic logic..
====
Yes you said this very elegantly and clearly and I sure it its true as this is what also I found happens in real estate where you fully depreciate something that actually stays the same value.
It is actually how investment works and contrary to how I have seen it taught in any place and you know I have a masters degree in finance and worked in banks.
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01-10-26 carib
The Paris investigating chamber rejected an appeal for release Monday from a French tax administration employee who prosecutors accuse of selling confidential information about cryptocurrency investors to criminal organizations.
Ghalia C., 32, has been detained since June 30, 2025, facing charges of complicity in violence against a public official and criminal conspiracy. Investigators examining her workstation at the Bobigny tax office uncovered searches specifically targeting cryptocurrency specialists and investors, whose personal data she allegedly sold to criminals for physical attacks and extortion.
Authorities traced her activity through the tax administration’s Mira software, which she exploited to access sensitive financial information. Police found cash deposits and Western Union transfers in her bank accounts, indicating payment for transmitting confidential data to an anonymous client.
Cryptocurrency investors present particularly valuable targets for organized crime seeking to steal private keys through so-called wrench attacks, physical assaults designed to force victims to surrender access codes. |
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01-10-26 carib
| SPAL: reading the series of recent posts, I guess we are not far from saying the same thing, after all. |
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01-10-26 carib
SPAL: if we are talking of historical cost.. it is very different from future cost, meaning starting now a new project.
Given you know I am not 100% ignorant on energy matters, let me give you the following example: when we finance a windpower project we assume total amortisation in, say, 25 years, meaning that revenue during 25 years must be higher than the initial investment+opex+financing costs during the same period, with the surplus being the profit. Now, in practice, on a certain project we invested 100MM$ 23 years ago, got back around 150MM$ during the said time, and right now the residual value of the project should be around 10MM$, according to business plan... but guess what? the value of the plant is still not far from 100MM$, for a number of reasons.. so all the projected costs used to start were deliberately excessively pessimistic.
I guess people looking at veny oil right now are applying the very same pessimistic logic..
The point, IMHO.. is that long term investment heavy projects require not only long term prices predictability, but also very solid contractual reliability of commitments taken, meaning political instability makes projects inherently more risky and there more expensive.
So, concerning Veny, as the Exxon CEO noted.. the issue of "investability" requires reliable political stability, which is far from granted with a thuggish regime still in power, even if under the barrel of a gun, which might prove temporary.
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01-10-26 Merlino
El presidente estadounidense ha decretado este sábado una "emergencia nacional" para proteger en cuentas del Tesoro de Estados Unidos los ingresos por las ventas del petróleo de Venezuela, lo que evitaría que acreedores de la deuda externa venezolana reclamen los fondos.
...........................................
Imho this step was foreseeable and it does not necessarily mean they are not going to orderly address the subject of debt in the future. When ????. Furthermore if production and income increase this executive decree can (and will be imho) challenged in court.
Lets see what happen with bond prices |
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01-10-26 spal
George Orwell's work, especially Nineteen Eighty-Four, serves as a warning against authoritarianism, where a "state of emergency" is perpetually maintained to justify control, silence dissent, and redefine truth ...
Words of a prophet. |
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01-10-26 victor
savo, here it is
//
Trump decreta una «emergencia nacional» para blindar la venta del petróleo venezolano en EE.UU. y evitar reclamaciones de los acreedores
El presidente estadounidense ha decretado este sábado una "emergencia nacional" para proteger en cuentas del Tesoro de Estados Unidos los ingresos por las ventas del petróleo de Venezuela, lo que evitaría que acreedores de la deuda externa venezolana reclamen los fondos.
La orden "bloquea cualquier embargo, juicio, decreto, derecho de retención, ejecución, o cualquier otro proceso judicial contra" fondos que estén en cuentas del Gobierno de Estados Unidos derivados de las ventas de petróleo venezolano, y "prohíbe transferencias o tratos" de estos recursos.
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01-10-26 spal
| Now some of this mighty be hyped and someone may walk on water ... but don't make a hope a strategy. |
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01-10-26 spal
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01-10-26 spal
| If you do shit for 26 years what happens to your industry? |
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01-10-26 spal
Chevron’s operations in Venezuela appear profitable at oil prices well below $60 per barrel, but this reflects low marginal costs, not a fundamentally viable Venezuelan oil sector.
Chevron never fully exited Venezuela and continues to operate legacy joint ventures using already-built, fully depreciated infrastructure. aka sipping from the old cup in Spal language.
As a result, Chevron’s marginal cash cost—the cost of producing one additional barrel from existing wells—is likely in the $25–35 per barrel range, including lifting, blending, and transport. At this level, production remains cash-positive even in a $60 oil environment.
So far so good.
However, this does not mean Venezuela can meaningfully increase production at $60. The country’s widely cited $80+ per barrel breakeven reflects full-cycle economics: rebuilding degraded infrastructure, drilling new wells, rehabilitating upgraders, restoring pipelines and ports, and absorbing political and legal risk.
Chevron’s marginal barrels avoid these costs because they rely on sunk capital and deferred investment.
Bingo
Crucially, Chevron’s model does not scale. Modest production maintenance or incremental increases are feasible, but any serious expansion would require tens of billions in new capital, pushing costs back toward $70–90 per barrel.
In short, Chevron’s presence reflects path dependence and cost recovery, not proof that Venezuela’s oil sector is competitive at current prices.
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01-10-26 spal
Is Chevron masochist to extract at 80$ in order to sell at 60$?
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They have sunk their investment and are sipping from the top of the cup ... I know you know what a marginal cost curve looks like. |
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01-10-26 spal
"Meanwhile, the breakeven price for projects in Venezuela to turn a profit is more like $80, according to Claudio Galimberti, the chief economist for Rystad Energy."
Fake news ... right? |
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01-10-26 carib
Spal: WTI now is around 60$ a barrel. Is Chevron masochist to extract at 80$ in order to sell at 60$?
Oil traded down to 20$ a barrel, some years ago. Producing at a loss for a while can make sense.. but 80$ to 20$? |
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01-10-26 spal
https://discoveryalert.com.au/economic-fundamentals-venezuelas-energy-revival-2026/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Break-even price estimates for Venezuelan heavy crude operations typically range from $65-80 per barrel.
Maybe these guys are wrong. |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| I guess Oil Cos CEOs talk about challenges in order to get tax incentives, subsidies, whatever |
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01-10-26 Merlino
no expert here, but 80$ a barrel sounds fake.
..................................
Yes
The amount of investments needed to increase production also sounds fake to me
No expert here however I guess Veni can easily increase production to about 1.5 mmbd by mid year with little investment needed and perhaps to about 2.0 mmbd by year end w/o need of any outrageous amount to be sunk.
A different matter is the investment needed for general infrastructure, power generation and distribution, roads, etc. and for refineries and ports etc |
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01-10-26 spal
| I am NOT saying no outright - I am just pushing to understand the challenges. For example where Exxon stands v.v. say Chevron. The upstream guys are going to need encouragements and incentives. |
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01-10-26 spal
Carib - it is not the marginal extraction price, but the all-in price that would be needed taking into account the needed investment and the traditional profit sharing. Even if not correct I think that the message is that there are cheaper and more attractive alternatives close by and that the market is well supplied in any case ... so why jump through hoops?
What does make sense it that there is a discount of around $15 that can immediately be recaptured on all existing production. Also US ports and refineries (which are the real winners here) will benefit in the longer run from more Vene throughput. |
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01-10-26 carib
SPAL: no expert here, but 80$ a barrel sounds fake.
if that was the extraction price, before taxes etc.. Veny would not have produced and exported as much as they did in the current century. |
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01-10-26 spal
Exxon has signaled it will not help Chevron develop Venezuela, instead focusing on high-margin Guyana assets where it has a $30/barrel breakeven compared to Venezuela’s estimated $80/barrel.
That is the reality.
While specific reports on Saudi Arabia's direct role in processing this at Port Arthur in 2026 are developing, Trump has explicitly stated his desire to use Venezuelan oil to lower global prices, which aligns with Saudi efforts to regain market share. This is part of the play ... and more money to Kushner and the Trump family. The Trump administration’s plan to control Venezuelan oil sales "indefinitely" would require Saudi cooperation to manage global supply.
Refining at Port Arthur: The Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas—wholly owned by Saudi Aramco—is one of the few facilities in the world designed specifically to handle the heavy, sour crude that Venezuela produces. By processing Venezuelan crude at Motiva, the Saudis can secure their refining margins while helping the U.S. recapture the "contraband discount" previously enjoyed by China.
Diversification: For the Saudis, this is a strategic play to push other international refiners out of the business by securing a "reliable chain of crude" at lower costs.
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01-10-26 victor
El pacto con Mercosur disparará un 40% las ventas de la UE a la región y creará la mayor zona de libre comercio del mundo
Las empresas europeas competirán en mejores condiciones que las de China y los EE.UU., con una eliminación de aranceles cercana al 100%
La oposición de los agricultores europeos al acuerdo comercial entre la Unión Europea y los países del bloque Mercosur (Paraguay, Argentina, Brasil y Uruguay) ha sido tan ruidosa en los últimos años que ya casi parece que se trate de una entente únicamente agrícola, cuando lo cierto es que afecta a todos los sectores de la economía europea. De hecho, el pacto creará el espacio de libre comercio más grande del mundo hasta la fecha, con más de 700 millones de consumidores, y tendrá consecuencias geopolíticas sísmicas, ya que supone una clara victoria para el multilateralismo en un mundo cada vez más fragmentado en bloques.
Concretamente, el documento que la presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Ursula von der Leyen, firmará en Paraguay la próxima semana elimina los aranceles para el 93% de los productos que las empresas europeas exportan a Mercosur, una región que actualmente tiene las tasas de importación más altas del mundo. Esto significa que la industria automovilística comunitaria podrá vender en ese mercado sin pagar el 35% de arancel que soporta actualmente, y lo mismo vale para la maquinaria industrial (14-20% de arancel), la industria química (18%) o la farmacéutica (14%). |
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01-10-26 panasonic
Chevron won a huge dispute over XOM on acquisition of Hess, gaining big presence in Guyana.
My guess XOM is not the better positioned player with DT administration, I would not decide veni assets value based on XOM opinion. |
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01-10-26 leopardo
Anyway Carib I think we have time to decide if
and when se should sell. Let’s wait a few(2/3) months
and see what happens… |
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01-10-26 carib
| “It’s uninvestible,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told officials in a blunt evaluation of the obstacles to doing business in the nation. “There are a number of legal and commercial frameworks that would have to be established to even understand what kind of returns we would get on the investment.” |
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01-10-26 carib
Leo: let us hope you are correct on this.
I am not so sure.
On the positive side, I think with the right technology and good management, Veny extraction costs remain competitive. |
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01-10-26 leopardo
| I exactly bought it for that reason |
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01-10-26 spal
Spal bought some K92
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Leo it is ultimately a leverage play on Gold. Nothing more, nothing less.
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01-10-26 leopardo
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01-10-26 patient-trader
| Pana, btw - Rivian is also in Edge AI, recently revealed their own chip. |
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01-10-26 leopardo
Right Carib.
But I stick to the fact that Vnz/Pdvsa bonds
are mostly Us detained and DJT does not want
to let’s say contrast and put himself in bad light with Us banks funds family Office s and Us lawyers working in the country. |
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01-10-26 spal
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01-10-26 spal
01-10-26 leopardo
My reading is that Oil companies investing in Venezuela will be well compensated for what they are doing.
So they can favor a write off for old expropriations as they will gain a lot from investing in the country.
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Leo - I think this is a fantasy at current price levels and relative to other opportunities. The market price would need to be disrupted (meaning pulling Russian or Iranian oil completely off the market) - but higher prices are NOT in the interest of Trumps domestic strategy.
He is simply going to strong are Chevron and some others to lift as much Vene crude as possible without moving prices - to squeeze out the contraband discount and the oil will be processd by the Saudis in Port Arthur (Texas) at low margins (as the Saudis are trying to get a lock on US refining capacity).
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01-10-26 spal
ExxonMobil's strategy heavily favoring Guyana is based on the superior risk-adjusted returns of the Stabroek Block compared to the massive costs, high risks, and lower profitability associated with re-entering Venezuela's dilapidated and politically volatile oil sector.
Comparative Costs and Profitability
Guyana (Stabroek Block): ExxonMobil's operations are world-class, low-cost assets with breakeven prices averaging around $30 per barrel. This makes the projects highly profitable, even in a low oil price environment, and allows for consistent returns with a low-to-medium risk profile.
Venezuela: The estimated breakeven price for projects in Venezuela is much higher, around $80 per barrel, due to the heavy crude quality requiring costly diluents and extensive processing, and the need for massive infrastructure overhauls. This is far above the current global oil prices hovering near $60-$65 per barrel.
Global Supply and Price Effects
Guyana Expansion: Exxon's ramp-up in Guyana (reaching 1.7 million bpd by 2030) is a steady, predictable increase in high-margin barrels that the market is absorbing within current forecasts.
Venezuela Revival: A rapid return of Venezuela to historical production levels (3-4 million bpd) would require an enormous capital expenditure of around $183 billion over 15 years and is widely considered unlikely in the short term.
However, even a more modest, hypothetical increase of production from Venezuela could flood the market, contributing to an existing or potential global oversupply (forecasted at a surplus of 3-4 million bpd in 2026).
This would likely suppress global oil prices, eroding the margins on ExxonMobil's existing production, including the highly profitable lighter barrels from Guyana.
Conclusion - it is better for Exxon that Vene oil remain in the ground. |
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01-10-26 carib
Leo: oil cos IMHO are correct in asking for solid guarantees before investing billions.
it takes a few years to recover your investment, before cashing profits. oilcos suffered expropriations and abusive taxation in Veny in the past.
The current de facto government cannot offer guarantees.. because they are officially "illegitimate".
US military power offers solid guarantees now.. but who can be certain of who will be in the white house in 2029?
Bottom line: ousting Maduro was great (hat off), avoiding a civil war also great.. but a credible, democratically elected veny president is necessary to offer solid guarantees.
MCM meeting DT is a good step forward.
But the key issue is DT apparently has no respect for formalities and legal niceties.
he considers himself and acts as if he was "deus ex machina"..
so we do not know what he might decide next, sadly. |
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01-10-26 leopardo
My reading is that Oil companies investing in Venezuela will be well compensated for what they are doing.
So they can favor a write off for old expropriations as they will gain a lot from investing in the country. |
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01-10-26 patient-trader
2 lawyers are engaged in a bizarre power struggle over Nicolás Maduro
https://www.businessinsider.com/nicolas-maduro-lawyer-power-struggle-venezuela-president-pollack-fein-2026-1
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01-10-26 carib
| Leo: what is your reading of Trump on the Conoco arbitration claim? |
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01-10-26 carib
| Merlino: on a technical point, producing electricity by burning oil is now more expensive than using solar (of course, in sunny areas) |
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01-10-26 carib
O cardeal italiano Pietro Parolin, secretário de Estado do Vaticano, procurou representantes americanos na Santa Sé no final do ano passado para tentar mediar um asilo para o ditador Nicolás Maduro na Rússia, diz o jornal The Washington Post.
De acordo com o veículo, a conversa ocorreu na véspera de Natal, quando o religioso convocou Brian Burch, embaixador dos EUA na Santa Sé, para obter detalhes dos planos dos Estados Unidos na Venezuela. |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| There is also the new factor that AI seems to be incredibly power hungry and conventional fossil fuels/gas electric generation is the quickest route to increase production |
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01-10-26 Merlino
| I would say that as it was handy for US to get Veni out of the mkt years ago to make room for her fracking it seems it is the opposite now either bcz of her desire to get Iran to reduce production or whatever other reason |
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01-10-26 Merlino
if things go smoothly and transition carries on without problems the Bonds rally has further to go. I would not sell now but sell a part of my position before restructuring.
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About same for me fwiw.....I guess this is kind of consensus view here in colores |
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01-10-26 leopardo
| Carib if things go smoothly and transition carries on without problems the Bonds rally has further to go. I would not sell now but sell a part of my position before restructuring. |
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01-10-26 spal
| "trimming" - absolutely the smart more. Sell into the impulse before it fades. |
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01-10-26 carib
Asset manager Aberdeen Investments is "trimming" its holdings of Venezuela's sovereign bonds, a portfolio manager told Reuters, after a stunning rally that has more than doubled the price of the country's defaulted bonds in the past 12 months.
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01-10-26 carib
| I would say.. 26 years of having the wrong regime.. |
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01-10-26 spal
The majors' reluctance is highly likely to persist absent a significant oil price rise or major supply disruption elsewhere. Ceteris paribus, this exposes a clear US miscalculation.
As of January 10, 2026, oil markets remain soft: Brent crude hovers around $60–63/bbl, WTI near $58–59/bbl, with no upward momentum.
Forecasts unanimously point to continued easing in 2026 due to ample non-OPEC supply growth (Guyana, Brazil, US shale) and persistent global surplus—0.5–3.5M bpd oversupply expected, driving averages toward $55–56/bbl.
In this environment, Western majors have zero economic incentive to pour tens of billions into Venezuela's high-risk, capital-intensive rebuild.
Exxon is still publicly labeling it "uninvestable" without transformative reforms; the January 9 White House meeting yielded no commitments—only cautious study and demands for guarantees.
Adding Venezuelan barrels would only exacerbate the glut, further depressing prices and margins.
Ceteris paribus, the US (Trump administration) miscalculated by overestimating private-sector enthusiasm. The pitch assumed patriotic or opportunistic rush to invest post-Maduro capture—but majors prioritize shareholder returns and capital discipline over geopolitical imperatives.
Without subsidies, forced terms, or a tighter market (e.g., $80+/bbl from disruptions), progress stays stalled. Long-term strategic gains (energy dominance, displacing rivals) remain possible, but the short-term revival timeline looks overly optimistic.
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01-10-26 savo
it was so simple... 8 years following the wrong policy... 8 years supporting an unpresantable opposition .. 8years insisting with a mythic democracy that will come... in time ... but not by force...
From the meeting with the Oils:
El representante de Chevron durante la reunión en la Casa Blanca fue Mark Nelson, su vicepresidente, quien asistió en nombre del director ejecutivo Mike Wirth. “Las empresas se preparan para reconstruir la industria petrolera venezolana en beneficio de los estadounidenses y los venezolanos”, señalaron desde la administración norteamericana.
Durante la jornada, cuando fue el turno de hablar directamente con Nelson, Trump le agradeció a la empresa por el “aguante” y le dedicó: “¿Dónde estás? Fuiste el único que aguantó todo. Durante todo ese tiempo, te llamaba y te preguntaba: ‘¿Qué demonios pasa con Venezuela?’. Aguantaste. No sé si ganaste dinero o no, pero aguantaste".
En tanto, desde la empresa le agradecieron: “Gracias, señor presidente, por convocar a esta reunión. Gracias por su liderazgo y por seguir manteniendo la dominación energética estadounidense en primer plano. Chevron ha sido parte del pasado de Venezuela. Sin dudas, estamos comprometidos con su presente. Y, como orgullosa empresa estadounidense, esperamos con ansias ayudarla a construir un futuro mejor. Socios orgullosos del dominio energético estadounidense".
Según indicó Reuters, días atrás, Chevron comenzó conversaciones con el gobierno de Trump para ampliar su licencia para operar en Venezuela y aumentar las exportaciones de crudo a sus propias refinerías y vender a otros compradores. |
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01-10-26 spal
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01-10-26 spal
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
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2s
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷SEC. RUBIO: AMERICA STANDS WITH IRAN'S BRAVE PROTESTERS
Secretary Rubio just dropped a clear message to the protestors in Iran:
"The United States supports the brave people of Iran.”
As protests explode in over 100 cities, crowds torching regime symbols, chanting for freedom, and facing live fire in the blackout, this U.S. backing hits different on this one. |
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01-10-26 spal
| Iran ... now at the very edge |
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01-10-26 spal
Chaya’s Clan
@ChayasClan
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19m
The entire local municipality building in the Iranian city of Karaj is engulfed in flames. |
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01-10-26 spal
| BREAKING: Iranian civilians set fire to mosques in the nation's capital — calling for the end of the regime's authoritarian, Islamic theocracy. |
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01-10-26 spal
Jack Prandelli
@jackprandelli
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2h
White House Venezuelan oil meeting rough for ConocoPhillips⚠️
Trump told CEO Ryan Lance to forget the $12B Caracas owes them (from 2007 expropriation + interest).
Trump: “We’re not looking at past losses that was their fault... good write-off.” Lance: “Already written off.
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Whoops |
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01-10-26 spal
Obvious to us both. Capturing Maduro neutralized Venezuela's threats to annex Essequibo which is two-thirds of Guyana, including offshore riches.
They don't need to stretch for Vene. |
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