12-24-25 leopardo
| Venz / Pdvsa buy or sell??? |
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12-24-25 carib
| I remember 2002. But, yet again.. the only relevant action we can take.. is deciding to buy or sell. |
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12-24-25 savo
FWIW.. I do not like the trend in argie's current account. Argie should be posting a CA surplus of magnitude:
The current account posted a US$1,581mn deficit in the third quarter of 2025. The negative figure extended the first two quarters’ deficit (-US$5.6bn and -US$2.8bn, respectively in the first and second quarter) and represents a notable deterioration compared to the surplus recorded in every quarter of 2024 (for the full year, the current account posted a US$5.7bn surplus in 2024, about 0.9% of GDP).
That compares wwith a strong CA surplus in Ecuador:
We revise 2025 current account surplus to 5% of GDP, and 2026 to 4.2%. The 0.3%-pt revision in the current account surplus is mainly driven by higher non-oil exports growth YTD. Meanwhile, oil exports have continued to decline, driven by lower oil prices, offsetting in part non-oil exports momentum. Next year, we anticipate a slowdown in non-oil export growth, which will lower the trade balance to US$5.4bn, while remittances are expected to moderate to a still elevated US $5.5bn. Against this backdrop, we forecast a substantial, albeit declining, current account surplus of 4.2% of GDP in 2026. |
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12-24-25 savo
carib.. I support opponents of dictatorships
i support them too...
What I do not support are failed strategies that after 23 years do not manage to achieve the objective.
The first attempt to remove Chavism by force was in 2002. Imagine...
I would love to see Maduro and Padrino enjoying their riches in Cuba...but until that happens I would prefer to see veni producing and exporting oil, Venezuelans going around their lives without sanctions, imports and export flowing in and out normally the air space free of US intervention ...last but not least... access to capital markets unimpeded and bonds current.
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12-24-25 spal
Show business kids making movies of themselves
You know they don't give a fuck about anybody else ...
Show Biz Kids
Song by Steely Dan ‧ 1973
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12-24-25 spal
but i have never in my life seen an opposition that wishes to see its country invaded by a foreign power..
===
Well this happens now because Latin America is run by a liberal bourgeoisie based in Miami. Miami is the de facto and approaching the de jure capital of LatAm. |
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12-24-25 spal
Whoops ...
Should American troops enter Venezuela, they would face an insurgency that could prove to be more organized, more experienced, and no less lethal than the one encountered in Iraq. The Colombian Marxist-Leninist rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), is anti-American, battle-hardened, and deeply embedded in regional smuggling networks. Unlike the Islamist fighters of Iraq, the ELN has several decades of fighting experience in inhospitable terrains and enforces a disciplined command structure. The group also enjoys cross-border sanctuary in Colombia and Venezuela, and maintains close coordination with Nicolás Maduro’s security forces. Any American deployment on Venezuelan soil would almost certainly provoke a prolonged and punishing insurgency from the ELN and its affiliates ...
In all of these wars, US forces have failed to achieve decisive victories against irregular adversaries, regardless of whether that is because they are constrained by laws of war and ethical norms or stymied by the fundamental difficulty of identifying and defeating clandestine fighters. Entering into another military conflict with a formidable insurgency risk would plunge America into yet another forever war built on the flimsiest of pretexts.
https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-coming-venezuelan-insurgency/ |
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12-24-25 carib
You can also look at the case of the cuban diaspora.
As a citizen, I support opponents of dictatorships.
As an investor, I rationally merely seek profit. |
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12-24-25 savo
ok carib.. I accept your point... italians abroad colluded during WW2 with the US...
I am not sure the case has much resemblance to today's veni.
But accept it is a matter of opinion.
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12-24-25 carib
Savo: no, I am referring to the anti-fascist opposition, in exile in New York, London, Moscow.. or in clandestine activities in Italy.
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12-24-25 savo
meanwhile.. today may be the day gold crosses the 4,500 barrier...or may be it is the day it pauses.
The funny thing is that while the US pursues a policy of dollar destruction... it is the country with the largest known gold reserves..8,100 tons.
8,100 * 32,000 * 4,500... a nice 1.2 Trn dollars there...
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12-24-25 savo
carib.. i do not know much about the opponents of fascism as i wasn't around.. but I imagine that you refer to people fighting it in the trenches and giving their lives in the process...
The opposition i am referring to is the one in Oslo, Miami and Madrid.
Because the ones in Veni does not support a military invasion or Caribbean piracy.
This case very specific... the opposition in veni is not the one that the US listens to...they are in the ground.. they know a compromise has to be found and they do not intend to deliver veni on a silver plate to Trump's family office and his associates.
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12-24-25 panasonic
"the point is made."
And a fair one, as the migration crisis of 8M venezolanos became a regional problem.
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12-24-25 carib
For the record: I disagree with Trump on the theory that the US has a "casus belli" because of stolen oil or drug trafficking...
but, once again, my own ideas on what is right and what is wrong.. are irrelevant in the matter at hand.
We appear to live in world where right and wrong have stopped being relevant, and got replaced by what is expedient for the stronger party.
We have to navigate the waters in front of us, not the ideal waters we wish to see in front of us. |
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12-24-25 carib
Katz, president-elect of Chile, just spoke out loud what many latin-americans think: if trumps takes military action to get rid of Maduro and gang.. he does a big favour to the whole region.
I could go on, but I think the point is made.
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12-24-25 carib
out of context: there is an jewish orthodox sect that considers the State of Israel a blasphemy, because in their opinion Israel should only be re-established by a Messiah.
They supported the PLO. |
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12-24-25 carib
| Savo: the opponents of fascism were very happy to see Italy invaded by the americans... |
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