01-14-26 savo
IMHO.. if the US decides through Licenses and EO how much oil veni produces...who produces it.. who buys it and at what price...collects the cash and manages it... then it is only logical that the US handles also the foreign debt.
If veni is in a default provoked by the US it is the responsibility of the US to correct that as they are the ones managing veni's purse.
The solution is not oil warrant but a US run restructuring with US guarantees. |
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01-14-26 Merlino
there are some billion in arbitration awards unpaid to oil cos
.........................
This and other claims coming from Chavez´s unilateral nationalizations in 2000s |
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01-14-26 carib
My question is: if a restructuring for clean slate comes up.. how will they deal with existing summary judgements?
is it worth getting one now? |
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01-14-26 carib
| Amateur: about 15 billions, if my memory is correct. Mostly to Conoco. |
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01-14-26 amateur
Merlino, I’ve read somewhere that there are some billion in arbitration awards unpaid to oil cos
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01-14-26 Merlino
Buchheit on Veny restructuring
.........................
He does not see much risk of an Irak haircut however he sees the risk that the US could place a new layer of privileged creditors above bondholders and other creditors : the US gov/army herself and the Oil Cos nationalized in the 70s
Regarding the Oil Cos as far as I know they were fully compensated at the time as per negotiated voluntary agreements |
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01-14-26 leopardo
| Oil warrants will be the carrot of the equation |
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01-14-26 leopardo
| Thanks Carib I'm listening to Lee B... |
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01-14-26 amateur
Pana, I'm in copper with Rio. Quite large lot.
My options job is different, maybe even opposite, to yours:I sit on the shares, sell covered calls >4% out of the money when I like the price, if the mkt keeps rising I roll it to the next month, if it falls I keep the cash and wait a recovery to restart.
Currently my holdings are well in the money, and am short calls at strikes close to current mkt for just over half the position.
Nice ride for the las couple of years.
Small position, same game, in Vale.
Dividends are qualified, cap gain (would be) long so low taxed. Option gains for the time being offset by old losses. |
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01-14-26 spal
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01-14-26 Merlino
Savo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2026-01-08/odd-lots-a-potential-venezuelan-debt-restructuring-podcast |
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01-13-26 panasonic
Spal, my options biz is simple in concept but requires some attention.
I.e my play in copper is FCX for three years already.
If you see the chart it has been a very good trade for options.
Rally can deliver 3x or 4x in the peaks, and a zero on drops.
As long as I can produce those kind of results it works.
Currently sitting in nice profit and ready to roll, didn't do it before to avoid larger tax bill for 2025.
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01-13-26 savo
| i can't open that link... could you paste the text please? |
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01-13-26 Merlino
Buchheit on Veny restructuring
...............
Carib Thanks for posting |
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01-13-26 spal
The U.S. government has filed for court warrants to seize dozens more tankers linked to the Venezuelan oil trade
===
More for the legit fleet. |
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01-13-26 spal
Yes, Steve Bannon was convicted of two counts of contempt of Congress in 2022 for defying a subpoena from the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 Capitol attack. He was sentenced to four months in federal prison and began serving his term in July 2024 after exhausting appeals. The situation with the Clintons is comparable in process: Defying a congressional subpoena can lead to a committee vote on contempt, followed by a full House vote to refer the matter to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for potential criminal prosecution under 2 U.S.C. §§ 192 and 194, which treats it as a misdemeanor punishable by up to one year in jail and a $100,000 fine.
abcnews.go.com
Comer has already announced plans to initiate contempt proceedings against Bill Clinton next week, with Hillary likely to follow.
pbs.org
Whether the Clintons face jail time depends on several factors not present in Bannon's case:DOJ discretion: The DOJ decides whether to pursue charges after referral. In Bannon's situation, the Biden administration's DOJ prosecuted him. Here, with Donald Trump as president (as referenced in reports), his DOJ could choose to aggressively pursue the case given longstanding political animosities—or not, if internal priorities shift.
opb.org
Legal challenges: The Clintons have bolstered their legal team and are signaling intent to fight in court, potentially arguing executive privilege, lack of legislative purpose, or other defenses. Bannon's appeals failed, but outcomes can vary based on judicial rulings.
Political context: Contempt referrals don't always result in prosecution; for example, several Trump-era officials (like Mark Meadows) faced referrals but weren't charged under the Biden DOJ. Enforcement has historically been inconsistent across administrations.
In short, the mechanics are similar, but the result hinges on the current executive branch's willingness to act, which could differ from Bannon's experience.
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01-13-26 carib
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government has filed for court warrants to seize dozens more tankers linked to the Venezuelan oil trade, four sources familiar with the matter said, as Washington consolidates control of oil shipments in and out of the South American country.
The U.S. military and Coast Guard have seized five vessels in recent weeks in international waters that were either carrying Venezuelan oil or have done so in the past. The seizures were part of Washington's campaign to force Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro out of power that culminated in U.S. forces capturing him on January 3.
Since then, the administration of President Donald Trump has said it plans to control Venezuela's oil resources indefinitely as it seeks to rebuild the country's dilapidated oil industry.
Trump imposed a blockade to prevent sanctioned tankers from shipping Venezuelan oil in December that brought exports close to a standstill. Shipments have resumed this week under U.S. supervision.
ACTIONS ENABLE CONFISCATIONS
The U.S. government has filed multiple civil forfeiture actions in district courts, primarily in Washington, D.C., enabling the seizure and confiscation of oil cargoes and ships that have been involved in the trade, the sources told Reuters. They declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The exact number of seizure warrants the U.S. has filed for, and how many it has already received, is unclear, the sources said, because the filings and legal orders are not public. Dozens have been filed, they added. |
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01-13-26 carib
Buchheit on Veny restructuring
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...illion-of-debt?srnd=phx-markets&sref=yVkxxAD0 |
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01-13-26 spal
| Panas - thanks - as always keep us posted on your actual trades ... philosophy is nice ... actual activity also helps. |
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01-13-26 spal
Kazakhstan oil exports slashed by 45% as Black Sea crisis deepens
Global energy markets are bracing for a sharp supply squeeze after a combination of geopolitical conflict and extreme weather disrupted one of Central Asia’s most important oil export routes.
Loadings of Caspian CPC Blend crude have fallen sharply, with shipping data indicating exports will average between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels a day for the rest of January. That is around 45% below the volumes expected in mid-December, tightening availability and pushing up prices for remaining cargoes.
The disruption centres on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The terminal is the main route for Kazakh oil exports to global markets and accounts for nearly 80% of the country’s overseas shipments.
Meanwhile, between 1 and 12 January this year, Reuters sources say that the country's oil output was down 35% mainly due to export constraints via a Black Sea's terminal. |
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01-13-26 panasonic
Spal, congrats!
Google and MU in porno territory as well, other stuff normal zig zag.
Banks had a great run in 2025, hope it continues this year.
Energy should perform nicely.
Metals taking some profits rolling house money. |
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01-13-26 spal
| Porno is when I pull at least 2% over the market across my entire portfolio. Today easily. |
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01-13-26 spal
| Clearly busted well outside of one of Jim Simmon's (RIP) apparent "surfaces". Game for today changed. |
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01-13-26 spal
| Profits now in porno zone |
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01-13-26 spal
HAL
HALLIBURTON CO
|
32.88 (+3.09%)
Even Halliburton rallying - although no surprise. It is a cyclical, but work in Vene alone will underpin this next few years. |
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01-13-26 spal
RCAT ... hyperbolic (the one that got away).
This a drone company. |
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01-13-26 spal
| Energy stocks continue to make big moves |
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01-13-26 carib
| Savo: they freed two italian hostages, in Veny. |
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01-13-26 savo
Ms Meloni thanked Venezuela’s authorities, including interim President Delcy Rodriguez, “for the constructive cooperation demonstrated in recent days”.
Mr Tajani said Rome would upgrade relations with Venezuela, changing the status of its top envoy from charge d’affaires to fully-fledged ambassador.
He described Venezuela as a “very important country” for Italy, noting its sizeable Italian immigrant community and Italian energy company Eni’s presence there |
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01-13-26 savo
| Jan 13 (Reuters) - Venezuela's state oil company has begun reopening some of the wells it and its joint venture partners had shut amid a strict U.S. embargo, as crude exports resume with two shipments departed on Monday, three sources close to operations said. |
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01-13-26 spal
KNTNF
K92 MNG INC
19.73
(+4.00%)
All time high ... higher, highs
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01-13-26 spal
Oil prices jump as 3 ‘tankers hit by drones’
"Meanwhile, reports of unidentified drone strikes on three oil tankers in the Black Sea also unnerved eenrgy traders.
It was not immediately clear who was behind the strikes on vessels travelling to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal that loads Kazakh oil into tankers, Reuters reported." |
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01-13-26 spal
There are other interesting names in the HY energy spectrum. Bonds I mean.
====
Yes - without a doubt. |
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01-13-26 carib
Savo: thanks.
reasonable realistic description. |
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01-13-26 savo
interesting article
https://larazon.net/2026/01/estamos-en-territorio-desconocido/ |
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01-13-26 savo
spal.. i think oil will wake up one of these days and rally like silver...
i haven't found a physical oil etf... all of them are futures.
I have been having borr bonds for a while... doing well.
There are other interesting names in the HY energy spectrum. Bonds I mean. |
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01-13-26 spal
SFL
SFL CORP LTD
This was discounted (still is somewhat I think) ... established in 2003 as a spinout of the shipping operations controlled by John Fredriksen (shipping icon).
It is good at what it does. Diversified. Rates in most segments are up and it is skilled at financial maneuvers. But had a big problem with a very large drill ship that it hold (hot stacked as they say). It burns money. It is called the Hercules. Just a feeling is that they might get it out to charter again soon as things develop (directionally) and politically in the O&G space. It can drill in very hostile regions. Just a feeling. But this stock also resists heavily at c. $8. |
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01-13-26 spal
| BORR also seems to be finding a foothold. Being run by a very shrewd young guy. Large platform of shallow water jack-up rigs. Highly indebted. |
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01-13-26 spal
EPM
EVOLUTION PETE CORP
|
3.560.17 (+5.01%)
Example - I have a position
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01-13-26 spal
| Oilers rally mood ... services especially although some junior E&P cos that were pushed to the edge currently surging (a bit like the miners) |
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01-13-26 victor
| Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP |
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01-13-26 spal
Legit oil tankers strong (i.e. clean and dirty aka heavy oil) ... ghost fleet on the ropes now.
FRO
TRMD |
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01-13-26 spal
| TGB - surging in the premarket ... looks like the Florence well field is now fully commissioned and performing above expectations ... first copper is now close from that mine. Given the extreme difficulties in permitting a new mine in the United States this is a rare accomplishment. |
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01-13-26 carib
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01-13-26 spal
| Moderately tilted to energy now ... |
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01-13-26 spal
| So when do we start talking about the Strait of Hormuz again ... |
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01-13-26 spal
CPI 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
CPI Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
CPI 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7%
CPI Core 2.6% YoY, Exp. 2.7%
===
The Schpal algo saids it is all BS ... but with Fed on the back foot markets go up. |
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01-13-26 carib
| Ask Parolin on the issue.. |
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01-13-26 savo
this guys have nothing... and bonds levels similar to veni
Lebanon's Dollar Bonds Surge to Their Highest Since 2020
Lebanon’s dollar bonds surged to their highest levels since March 2020, post which the country defaulted on about $30bn of international debt. The move is driven by optimism that a proposed banking law could unlock frozen deposits and pave the way for financial reform. Bond prices have risen across maturities reflecting growing investor bets on an eventual debt restructuring and progress toward an IMF-backed rescue. However, opinions of the market participants differ on valuation, with some investors expecting recovery values below current prices, while more optimistic funds believing bonds could rise further if reforms advance and regional risks ease. The rally follows signals from Lebanon’s new leadership, led by President Joseph Aoun, that it is seeking to break years of political paralysis and meet key IMF conditions. Analysts indicate that investors are also monitoring unrest in Iran and its potential impact on the Lebanese government’s ability to implement reforms. S&P had upgraded Lebanon to CCC in August last year. Lebanon's dollar bonds have surged to 28-29 cents on the dollar from 22-23 cents in December 2025. |
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01-13-26 savo
victor... Popes meet political figures... MCM is the leader of the opposition of a country that is in the news and of which she will be president sooner or later.
I think it is very reasonable that he meets her.
However, meeting with the Pope does not say anything about the person who meets with him.
On the contrary it talks about how holy peope Popes are who are ready to meet any known satanist if that helps the cause of peace.
Imagine having to meet Clinton, Hilary, Bush, Cheney, Obama, Blair...
Regarding Delcy...I do not know... did she ask for a meeting? Maduro met with Pope Francis. May be if she asks she gets the meeting.
MCM has all the time of the world to meet people... that is all she does right now... Delcy is a bit more busy I would say. |
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01-13-26 victor
| Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said there would be “overwhelming bipartisan support” in Congress to stop President Donald Trump from conducting any military action on Greenland. |
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01-13-26 victor
savo, all they want is the photo.
//
in terms of "publicity", as of today, mcm has NOT posted anything re her vatican trip.
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01-13-26 spal
spal, when it comes to protocol, the vatican rules :-))
===
Yes - I think you are saying something pretty interesting here - thanks again. Wlll do a causal study of this at some point.
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01-13-26 victor
savo, the point you have to understand is that
//
the point you have to understand is that the pope gave mcm an audience. he didnt have to.
did the pope give delcy an audience?
not that i know of.
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01-13-26 savo
victor... of course I know about the dressing in black...
the point you have to understand is that the one meeting MCM or every satanist US and EU presidents is the person who acts as head of the Vatican State... not the head of the Catholic Church...
It is just politics...
Of course the Pope would be delighted to hear confession from any those satanists but they are not interested in that.. all they want is the photo.
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01-13-26 victor
Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP |
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01-13-26 victor
| spal, when it comes to protocol, the vatican rules :-)) |
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01-13-26 victor
savo, in the letizia video, the one behind her is Maxima Z, i think.
she is catholic, but wears all-black, as she represents a protestant country and/or a protestant royal family.
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01-13-26 spal
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01-13-26 victor
savo, And she dressed in black and hanged a rosary on her neck...
//
apparently, you don't know vatican protocol.
when women have an audience with the pope, they have to dress in all black. all of them.
the exception is queens and princesses from CATHOLIC countries, who get the privilege of dressing in white.
here, princess Di in audience with the pope, in all black:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7_jAfLH7Oc
princess Letizia in all white, because she is a princess from a catholic country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ-KDhqE_qs
it's a privilege letizia gets, and very few others.
letizia becomes the center of attention because she is the only one wearing white, similar to the attention a bride gets.
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01-13-26 victor
EE.UU. dice que "permitirá" que México suministre petróleo a Cuba
Por EFE
El Gobierno de EE.UU. permitirá que México suministre petróleo a Cuba, pese a las amenazas del presidente, Donald Trump, de dejar a La Habana sin crudo, de acuerdo con el secretario de Energía, Chris Wright, durante una entrevista con la cadena CBS.
Wright dijo que la política de Estados Unidos es “permitir” que México siga llevando petróleo a Cuba, según dijo el funcionario a CBS News.
Las declaraciones del secretario suceden luego de que Trump dijera el domingo en sus redes sociales que “no habrá más petróleo ni dinero para Cuba: cero”.
En medio de las tensiones, el presidente de Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel aseguró que actualmente no existen conversaciones con el Gobierno de Trump, excepto contactos relacionados a temas migratorios.
Luego de la captura del presidente de Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, Cuba quedó expuesta ante un inminente efecto negativo por el freno de las relaciones bilaterales con el país sudamericano.
Por su parte, la presidenta de México, Claudia Sheinbaum, dijo previamente que su país está en disposición de ser el “mejor vehículo de comunicación” entre Estados Unidos y Cuba.
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