01-19-26 carib
| Now that Nicolas Maduro has been ousted, investors should again keep an eye on Venezuela, Mobius wrote on his blog on Jan. 19. He himself considers this market attractive. As hyperinflation and devaluation of the national currency encouraged people to invest in the stock market, the main index of the stock exchange in Caracas showed "tremendous growth in bolivars," and in some periods provided returns in U.S. dollars as well, Mobius wrote. |
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01-19-26 carib
| I guess the UK government waits for a legitimate, recognised Veny Government. |
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01-19-26 carib
Danish pension funds were one of the first to repatriate money and reduce their dollar exposure this time last year. With USD exposure still very elevated across Europe, developments over the last few days have potential to further encourage dollar rebalancing.
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01-19-26 savo
thieves
El Banco de Inglaterra custodia actualmente 31 toneladas de barras de oro que pertenecen al Estado venezolano en sus bóvedas subterráneas. Estas reservas alcanzan hoy un valor estimado de 4.000 millones de dólares, pero el Gobierno británico persiste en su negativa de devolverlas tras un extenso proceso legal. |
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01-19-26 savo
Wall Street satanists spent the whole Friday smashing silver..only for it to come back all the way and more today
up 4.5% |
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01-19-26 spal
I much preferred the "old world".
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It worked for some people and spectacularly well in some cases. |
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01-19-26 spal
| I guess you can save "rocks" and "stones" and "gold" ... but we'd need a needlessly more complex and boreing discussion. I stick to my point on "savings" and "debt" ... which equals "trust" and "belief" ... |
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01-19-26 spal
You can not have "savings" without "debt".
What matter is if you have saved for a good reason or not.
Productivity and technical advanacment have never been greater in the history of the world. I think this matters.
Concerning GDP and government spending - again the same thing applies within the identity. Was it "good spnding" or not ... Also GDP itself is a flawed mirror in my view. |
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01-19-26 carib
SPAL: the picture you paint brings water to Savo's mill.
Political circumstances, however, can change rapidly.
I much preferred the "old world". |
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01-19-26 savo
spal.. i concur with most of what you say except on two things:
a) assets and debt are not an identity for the market. Assets are assets ..debt is debt and they can be very different.. particularly if the assets are unable to service the debt.
b) GDP is an identity... so any government spending "creates" gdp. That does not make the country any more solvent.
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01-19-26 spal
Economic State Craft.
(c) copywrited by the Colores. |
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01-19-26 spal
Savo - the government debt is also an asset. The bigger it is the more assets there are. It is an accounting identity. The debt is simply a dialogue between debtors and creditors.
The US is moving towards a military command economy ... there is similarities with China, but China is way more indebted (internally).
The US goernment will take formal (it has defacto already) control of rates. This ensures better alignment between the military command economy and the "markets".
The military budget will be increased dramatically - you will see this in all sorts of ways.
This will boost GDP substantially.
This will also engage subtantial reshoring. The plan includes a coordinated major lift in US and Latin American coordination. Maduro is simply Act 1.
The global order has is now putting to bed "neo-liberalism" and in 20 years this will be a historical fact. The game has now shifted to econonomic state craft.
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01-19-26 savo
merlino... For a state to be bankrupt I guess it is necessary to have negative equity
i would say it is simpler than that...a country is broke when it needs perpetual central bank QE irrespective of its tax base or the assets that might have.
But the US does not need to be in this situation. It is because its political calss choose to be in it.
If the US would take certain tough decisions it could get out of the mess it is in very rapidly. |
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01-19-26 savo
carib.. you do remember that when subprime exploded Bernanke said: "it is contained". You know how that one ended.
The US is not broke as subprime was contained.
With debt above 100% of GDP...a budget deficit of 50% of income...a president desperately asking for lower rates in an economy supposedly according to him in the best shape it has ever been... the central bank in QE mode and the rest of the world dumping USTs and buying precious metals... the military spending as if there is not tomorrow... i think .. as they say... the writing is on the wall... and the ones writing it on the wall are precious metals buyers. |
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01-19-26 carib
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01-19-26 carib
| Savo: I an too old to understand Trumpism, but I do not think the USA is broke, yet. |
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01-19-26 carib
SPAL: no disagreement with your strategy.. but 99,9% of humanity does not live in Wisconsin..
:-) |
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01-19-26 Merlino
the US is bankrupt....meaning it can not keep up with interest payments on its debt..
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For a state to be bankrupt I guess it is necessary to have negative equity (US is far far away from that) and no financing (still far away from that as local & intl financing still is there besides the capacity to increase taxation) in addition to not being able to fully pay interests on her debts.
I reluctantly say this as I long for the times US debt was way smaller and nobody even imagine thing like QE and the like were possible...and the whole scheme was more comprehensible for old fellows like me.
Furthermore the price level/metrics of US mkts are now so high in historical terms that perhaps they indicate US is anything from bankrupt notwithstanding current prices of gold, silver, etc.
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01-19-26 savo
carib.. just to clarify .. i did say the US is bankrupt... what I wanted to say is that it is broke...meaning it can not keep up with interest payments on its debt...and has the usual options... inflation (understood as QE) or default.
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01-19-26 savo
victor.. my only interest in BTC is to see it go down to 70K so that Saylor is wiped out.
He is now spreading the idea that BTC is energy!
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01-19-26 victor
in gold 4,600 ..
in btc 95,000 ? :-))
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01-19-26 spal
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01-19-26 spal
But the point is laws can be changed.
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In any biz under the sun - the point is what is expected from someone who watches and understand their market.
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Savo thinks the US is bankrupt, If that was true US laws could change unfavourably.
Savo is a very interesting fellow, but I do not agree even in the slightest.
Concerning laws changing that can effect me - I do not see anything major on the near or medium term horizon.
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01-19-26 spal
Spal: I own a RE investment co (inherited) renting out apartments.
What is true in Wisconsin is not necessarily true everywhere.
Taxes and management cost eat out 2/3 of revenue.
Then you should add "rent controls" that is rules preventing owners from raising rents and or/expelling tenants even if there is inflation and tenants do not pay what they owe.
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Property taxes on my are 12.5% of revenues. I do not treat them as a cost as it is something that is passed on.
Management costs in my case are zero - as I self manage - I understand that not many people are cut out to be or good at being a landlord or property manager themselves. In my case I do not find it difficult and suspect that this is to my advantage.
Wisconsin is a "landlord" friendly jurisdiction. There are no rent controls and I do not expect to see them. If either factor changes the game is played differently (that is all). My losses from "back rent" in Wisconsin so far are zero.
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01-18-26 panasonic
Savo, let's say couple retires with 100kgs of gold, they need to sell X to cover living expenses, so must sell the equivalent.
Unless gold reproduce itself by some magic spell, their position is shrinking YoY.
In terms of savings they are eating, and only if they translate the value of remaining gold to "fiat" currency they will feel better abt. their savings.
The magic happens when you buy an asset (say RE) with borrowed money at 3% fixed for 30 years, in fiat currency, of course...just my two cents. |
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01-18-26 savo
in my opinion comparing gold with fiat is also comparing apples with bananas.
in some ways they are not but in a particular way they are...both are denominators...if you want to compare "value" of something overtime in US$ the denominator is 1... if you want it in CHFs it is 1.25... in euros.. 1.16 .. in gold 4,600
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01-18-26 carib
| Spal: I see you are aware laws vary between jurisdictions. But the point is laws can be changed. Savo thinks the US is bankrupt, If that was true US laws could change unfavourably. |
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01-18-26 carib
Spal: I own a RE investment co (inherited) renting out apartments.
What is true in Wisconsin is not necessarily true everywhere.
Taxes and management cost eat out 2/3 of revenue.
Then you should add "rent controls" that is rules preventing owners from raising rents and or/expelling tenants even if there is inflation and tenants do not pay what they owe. |
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01-18-26 spal
Fact is RE is "immobile", hence easily taxable.
how much to tax is a political decision that can be altered from time to time.
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Carib - my considerations on RE center on it as an investment not as a consumption item (personal chateau or castle). The latter is certainly consumption and certainly targetted. Many people get confused here and the fact that castles or chateaux go up in value sometime does not make them necessarily into "investments".
Now concerning RE as an investment. My experience as long as I have done this is the following:
1. Taxes (like property taxes) are passed on to tenants - always.
2. Gains taxes (capital gains taxes) are not paid (ever) ... they are rolled over and on death (via a trust) the tax basis is stepped up (thus heirs do not pay either).
3. When one has sufficient RE as an investment they can change their income tax status to "RE Investor" in the United States and deduct all sorts of things.
4. When the portfolio is large enough and appreciates one can live off money borrowed against the RE which is free of taxes. Etc.
So I do not buy the "easy to tax argument" for investment RE in the United States. What one must avoid of course is a RE slump, but that is another matter.
I do agree with you that personal Chateaux consumption is easily taxed. Perhaps that was your point? I do not also that investment laws are different in other jurisdictions but now you know how they work where I operate.
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01-18-26 carib
| Apparently, 5.000 people murdered by the Iranian theocracy last week. Trump said "help is coming!". Not seen so far. |
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01-18-26 carib
If you prefer, also compare Gold with bitcoins.. 2012-2026.
As I know, I hold Gold, and not BTC, so this is no ideological dispute. |
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01-18-26 carib
Savo: that is correct.
but in my opinion comparing gold with fiat is also comparing apples with bananas. |
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01-18-26 savo
| incidentally... are the guys form AN2015, supreme court in exile and pdvsa board ad-hoc still being paid ? |
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01-18-26 savo
-condiciones-para-una-reforma-exitosa-de-la-ley-organica-de-hidrocarburos/
considering how complex it is to write hydrocarbons legislation... the fact that it has already been introduced in the AN means that this U-Turn in the US-Veni relationship has been in the making for some time.
... and MCM did not even know about it. |
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01-18-26 savo
also consider the historical price in gold of 1.000 shares of Apple, Google and NVDA, just from the beginning of this century.
and that would be comparing apples and bananas...
nvdia is a business and its value is in the business not in the assets.
gold is not a business and its value is in the asset which has an exclusive capacity to perform certain functions that other assets or metals do not have.
Gold is just the denominator of a ratio which intends to convert nominal returns into "sound" money returns (sound because when you throw it on a table it makes a sound)
of course there will be stocks and properties that outperformed gold.. hence stock picking.. but the debate is not about stock picking ..which will always be there for the smart ones... it is about whether the "market" is in bear or bull territory...
Buffet recommended to buy index funds... those following his advise have lost money..in real terms.
The reason why i think one should continue investing in precious metals is because i do not have the capacity to spot the next nvidia... i have to content myself with the "market"...and that one depends on the state of the US economy which i believe is in very bad shape and getting worse. |
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01-18-26 carib
| https://www.elnacional.com/2026/01/ruta-y-condiciones-para-una-reforma-exitosa-de-la-ley-organica-de-hidrocarburos/ |
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01-18-26 carib
Fact is RE is "immobile", hence easily taxable.
how much to tax is a political decision that can be altered from time to time.
Maybe one should also consider the historical price in gold of 1.000 shares of Apple, Google and NVDA, just from the beginning of this century. |
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01-18-26 savo
amateur... of course no currency is looking healthy... that is why gold and silver do look healthy.
in any case other currencies are not important because they are not reserve currencies.
The whole point of the reserve currency is that one can safely hold it as "reserve". But if the reserve currency loses value every day against real money why hold on to it.
The whole US economy is based on importing goods and services from the rest of the world and exporting dollars so that the rest of the world finances US consumption. That is ending.
The US has already lost 85% of its value against the CHF over the last 50 years.. and 99% against gold. That trend is not going to change any time soon.
Regarding the possibility of a new Volcker...It is simply not possible. if somebody even attempts to reign on inflation and currency devaluation in the US through higher rates the whole financial sector will collapse. it is death by inflation/depreciation or death by financial crisis. There is no way out. The next crisis is a US government crisis... nobody can bail out the US government. |
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01-18-26 spal
RE is an alternative.
But yield is low (How so?)
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and most of it is increasingly captured by taxes (How?)
Interested in why you think this - maybe this must be the case in Argentina? Not in Wisconsin. |
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01-18-26 amateur
Well, most of the developed countries are highly indebted, look at Japan for a start, and Europeans. So no currency looks healthy.
Gold and silver have been a nice refuge lately. But I would not put a large % of my savings there, if a restrictive monetary policy were to return, they would lose all attraction. Not that it is something very likely to happen soon, really.
My doubt is, will it be low motion, real interest rates going back to zero for many years? Or will DT manage to get his wet dream, 1% nominal rates with Inflation at 3% or even 4%?
The mantra that central banks do not control long term rate is BS. They should not, but they can, and did it in the past.
RE is an alternative. But yield is low and most of it is increasingly captured by taxes. |
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