12-21-25 savo
pana... that may be the case too... but we fo not know
what we do know is tha Rubio wakes up every day to make the life of the people of venezuela a bit worse.
Gladly other forces in the US continue protecting Chevron’s business which is a source of revenue for the country.
It is very pathetic to see the US become a nation of Caribbean pirates. That country used to represent good things... now all it brings to the world is violence.. theft.. piracy.. agendas..corruption... deficits.. bail outs..money destruction.. debt.. |
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12-21-25 Merlino
There is also the (imho) less likely but not impossible resolution by negotiations as Savo´s suggest.
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redundant paragraph to be cancelled
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12-21-25 Merlino
Besides Pilly anyone here trimming?
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Pana, I hold fwiw
My guess is we can get either a double or tripling from recent highs in case of a regime change either by force or by negotiations. Alternatively about 30% correction from same levels if nothing immediately happens and the US navy is withdrawn as in this case the aggressive threads by USA most likely will continue at least during Trump´s presidency.
I see the possibility of a negotiated resolution w/o regime change highly unlikely however not impossible.
There is also the (imho) less likely but not impossible resolution by negotiations as Savo´s suggest. |
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12-21-25 panasonic
Savo, my view is different as you know.
Every morning Maduro calls Saab "did you find a way to take us out alive?" Not even $200M are enough?, Alex pls pls I don't to die in this shithole"
;-) |
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12-21-25 savo
implosion has been tried for 8 years...and hasn't worked.. so I guess that is not the plan
looks to me as if the only plan is to cause damage to a competitor oil producer ... with the acquiescence of the veni opposition in Miami and Madrid.
Every day Rubio wakes up .. checks the net ... sees that Maduro is still in Miraflores... and says ..Damn! it didn't work...he is still there...!
and invents some new satanic sanction... and so it goes the life of the people of venezuela... the liberators becoming the torturers with the celebration abroad in the best restaurants with the best champagne of MCM, Guaido, Lopez, Tintori, Ledesma, Vecchio, Borges, Toledo, Hernandez, Smolansky... all paid by Citgo and USaid...etc.. |
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12-20-25 panasonic
Vic, Savo..if the plan is to cause an implosion, it won't happen.
We'll have to wait and see...
Besides Pilly anyone here trimming? |
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12-20-25 victor
savo, MCM in Oslo
no, she left already |
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12-20-25 savo
victor... according to the WSJ the tanker was Chinese...
either this is a huge fuck up and will have horrible consequences or it is part of an agreement to keep the circus going. |
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12-20-25 savo
we know what they steal... but we do not know of the ones that they continue their journey
I doubt that the plan is to intercept every cargo that goes to China...
That will piss China off a lot... and I do not think that is what the US wants...
so my guess is they will intercept one and let 9 pass...
all for the sake of the circus... meanwhile Maduro remains in Miraflores... and MCM in Oslo. |
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12-20-25 pillz
U.S. intercepts another vessel near Venezuela, according to U.S. media
Sat Dec 20 17:51:43 2025 EDT
The policy of "total and complete blockade" that Donald Trump has announced for all oil tankers sanctioned by Washington entering and leaving Venezuela has had its confirmation this Saturday. US forces intercepted and confiscated the cargo of a second such vessel in southern Caribbean waters off the Venezuelan coast. The information was confirmed by Reuters and ABC News, based on sources from the Republican magnate's government. Caracas has spoken of acts of "piracy" and of a "colonial" nature.
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12-20-25 victor
cnn
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Aunque la directiva de Trump de esta semana se dirigía a los petroleros sancionados, el buque incautado por Estados Unidos este sábado no está sujeto a sanciones estadounidenses, según el funcionario. La tripulación del petrolero no se opuso a la operación.
De acuerdo con el funcionario, el buque era un petrolero con bandera panameña que transportaba petróleo venezolano y cuyo destino final era Asia.
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12-20-25 panasonic
Savo, absolutely, in line with my posts since early days when joined colores about inequality.
Now, when you put Vzla in the mix, you are forgetting that we lived extremely well under the pact with USA till Carlos Andres threw it into shredder.
In the same period that you mentioned 2000-2025, income power of venezolanos, owners of Venezuela btw, dropped minus 10million percent, so going back to the pact pre Carlos Andres is what we want and brace for, and throw Maduro and gang into a tank full of piranhas.
All the rest is...
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12-20-25 victor
savo, so what would an oil tanker carry ???
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Estados Unidos está interceptando e incautando un buque en aguas internacionales frente a las costas de Venezuela, dijeron el sábado a Reuters tres funcionarios estadounidenses, pocos días después de que el presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, anunció un “bloqueo” de todos los petroleros sancionados que entran y salen del país sudamericano.
Esto marcaría la segunda vez en las últimas semanas que Estados Unidos ha incautado un petrolero cerca de Venezuela y se produce en medio de una gran acumulación militar estadounidense en la región.
Los funcionarios, que hablaron bajo condición de anonimato, no dijeron dónde se estaba llevando a cabo la operación, pero añadieron que la Guardia Costera estaba al mando.
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12-20-25 savo
and the reason I say this is because of a podcast I listen recently...the guy said:
JMP switched from being short an enormous position amounted over decades to long.
They also pulled a bunch from recoverable deposits meaning it can't be used to settle in comex.
Comex doesn't have silver to settle because everyone buying physical silver is asking for delivery, suggesting its sovereign wealth funds/central banks stockpiling silver given the sheer size.
Lending rates on overnight silver at comex have been at 7% consistently because there is such a shortage, usually sub 1%.
China starting Jan 1st is actually imposing that huge constraint we had seen. It is to do with refining the metal back in China, but the ultimate result is more tightness. |
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12-20-25 savo
FWIW.. I think JP is wrong in this report of yesterday...
Silver bells are ringing. Silver’s continued outperformance vs gold has driven the gold/ silver ratio into a large confluence of support levels in the low- to mid-60s.
The rapid price increase has also brought up increasing questions about the potential destructive implications for demand. As we detail below, we think one of the most vulnerable segments of demand is solar, where we estimate that a significant acceleration in thrifting could threaten up to 50-60 moz of demand in the coming years. In the near term, these longer-term demand destruction risks are overshadowed by tight physical markets (Sec 232 uncertainty), which continue to skew risk towards silver outperformance as long as it persists.
That being said, we continue to watch out for volatility catalysed by silver selling to rebalance the BCOM Index beginning on January 8th and think demand destruction in silver risks an eventual sharper unwind in silver’s recent outperformance vs gold when current market tightness ultimately unwinds |
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12-20-25 savo
pana..
there are bubbles all the time of one kind or another.. and when bubbles burst ...there are bail outs ..lower interest rates... QE.. they send checks
there are bubbles, bubbles burst... there are bailouts (QEs and lower rates)... which plant the seeds of the next bubble
we can not abstract the Indexes from those three...we have to take the entire package... that is why i chose a 25 year period.. so we can have all of them.
The point is that the US government is too expensive... and it can not be financed only through taxes and borrowing... it also needs to extract purchasing power from the US citizen through inflation.
Inflation understood as creating money out of thin air.
The consequence is that over the last 25 years the US has not created real wealth. It has destroyed real wealth and that can be seen in the calculations I made.
Americans are on average 75% poorer as measured by the value of the stock market in real money. Huge number.
It has created a lot of wealth for a few while leaving the majority of americans poorer.
Europe is not dissimilar. |
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12-20-25 panasonic
Savo, you are right just checked.
Bust in dot com was a big drag down in tech, the index only made 460% vs gold a 11x.
Interesting, if AI takes a beat the gap will be larger.
In terms of cost of life, me spending around 2x vs 2000, thank god. |
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12-20-25 savo
pana.. the S&P
01-01-2000 ---> 1,470
20-12-2025 ---> 6,834
it took 5.25 ounces of gold to buy one S&P.
Today it takes 1.57 ounces.
I would venture a conclusion pana...
real wealth can not be fabricated at the Fed... Fiscal deficits... government overspending... eternal wars... socialism...interventionism... bail outs... QE... overconsumption .. low savings... do not create prosperity.. on the contrary.. they destroy prosperity...
When they say the US is having an affordability crisis... what they are in fact saying is that americans are poorer when measured in real purchasing power.
That does not mean some people have not become hyper rich while most are poorer... that is a very old economic concept called the Cantillon effect... google it... very interesting.
What sounds histrionic... is that at the same time in which the the US is running massive fiscal deficits... and the world is rejecting the dollar...they are getting into yet another war moving "the biggest army the world has seen" to the Caribbean to sink boats and topple Maduro. |
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12-20-25 savo
pana... i used the dow as an example..
we can do the nasdaq
Nasdaq on 01-01-2000 ---> 4,000
Nasdaq on 20-12-2025 --->23,300
It took 14 ounces of gold to buy one nasdaq
today it takes 5.41 ounces of gold.
So the tech sector has also been in a 25 years bear market when measured against real money.
Of course the numbers will be different depending on the period one chooses and the particular composition of the portfolio.
In this particular 25 years period.. ie the XX1 century...gold beat the dow and beat the nasdaq.
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12-20-25 savo
| victor.. the tanker carried any veni oil? |
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12-20-25 victor
| The ship is not under U.S. sanctions, the sources said. |
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12-20-25 victor
US seizes vessel off Venezuelan coast, sources say
The United States interdicted a tanker off the coast of Venezuela, two sources familiar with the raid told USA TODAY on Dec. 20, just days after President Donald Trump announced a "blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.
The sources identified the vessel as the Centuries, which maritime records show is a Panama-flagged oil tanker. The ship is not under U.S. sanctions, the sources said. Marine traffic trackers showed the Centuries was off the coast of Venezuela in the waters of Curaçao, a Dutch Caribbean island.
The Centuries is a 333-meter-long oil tanker that last docked in Singapore in October, according to vessel tracker Maritime Optima. Its reported seizure would mark the second time in recent weeks that the United States has seized a tanker near Venezuela and comes amid a large U.S. military build-up in the region. The seizure was first reported by Reuters.
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12-20-25 panasonic
Savo, DOW is behind bcz of less exposed to tech, where all growth was produced.
My holding in gold is under performing my tech ones by a mile and a half.
But yes, one sneeze in tech and brace for a memorable beat, wont take much to start a stampede.
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12-20-25 savo
more on how the US stock market has been in a bear market for 25 years when measured in real money:
Down Jones on 01-01-2000 ---> 11,700
Down Jones on 20-12-2025 ---> 48,100
went up almost 500%
Ounce of Gold on 01-01-2000 ---> 280
Ounce of Gold on 20-12-2025 ---> 4,300
up 1500%
you needed 41.7 ounces of gold to buy one Down
Now you need 11.18 ounces of gold to buy one dow.
The down has lost 75% of its value when measured in real money.
all despite several rounds of QE... a number of bailouts...historically low interest rates... an 8trn fed balance sheet .... and the US economy having the best time in history according to charlatan Donald. |
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12-20-25 savo
La charlatanería del pato Donald
A la mayoría de los seres humanos les desagrada ser considerados por los demás como charlatanes. Sin embargo, a Donald Trump eso parece enorgullecerlo, pues no sé cansa de afirmar pendejadas que no puede a cumplir.
Comenzó por afirmar qué acabaría con la guerra de Ucrania en un par de días; más tarde expuso que retomaría el control del Canal de Panamá y que Dinamarca tenía que venderle Groelandia.
No conforme con eso, planteo enviar tropas a territorio Méxicano, ique para combatir el narcotráfico; y que Canadá tenía que anexarse a EEUU como un estado más.
Haber acabado con 10 guerras y llevado la paz al Medio Oriente es otra de esas afirmaciones payasas que lo definen como un charlatán consumado
Ahora, en lo que respecta a Venezuela nos atreveríamos afirmar que es donde se consagra como el gran charlatan.
Cuatro meses anunciando invasión por mar y tierra al tiempo que se inventa novelas como el tren de Aragua y el cartel de los soles.
Lo último es la afirmación de que Venezuela le robó el petróleo, las tierras y la infraestructura a su país.
Charlatán no, super charlatán es lo que es.
Pueden tener por seguro que no habrá guerra, ni invasión. Su títere no será presidenta, no se quedará con una gota de nuestro petróleo y ni un centímetro de nuestro territorio pasará a sus manos. |
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