01-15-26 carib
Savo: as far as I remember there is no free movement of capital in China, so capital has limited mobility.
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01-15-26 panasonic
| Semis on fire after Taiwan Semi blew it from the park. |
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01-15-26 panasonic
| Carib, that is almost $1T, can't be that easy to bleed such amounts w/o Gov. somehow involved, why would they allow it? |
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01-15-26 savo
| i wonder what do they mean by "fled".. capital is mobile and it is very difficult to keep track of it. |
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01-15-26 carib
| An estimated $940 billion in capital fled China during the first 11 months of 2025 alone, marking the second-largest annual outflow since 2006, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. |
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01-15-26 savo
The majority of Venezuelans want María Corina Machado to lead their country following the US’s capture of Nicolás Maduro
Unfortunately for them... the guy elected in 2024 was EGU... who went into hiding the same day of the election
For MCM to be president... either EGU has returns to his Creator or a new election will have to be held.
DT ruled that out for the "foreseeable future" |
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01-14-26 savo
HOUSTON/WASHINGTON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Chevron (CVX.N) is expected to receive an expanded Venezuela license from the U.S. government this week that could allow for increased production and exports from the South American country, three oil industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
The U.S. oil producer is anticipated to be one of several firms to get approvals from President Donald Trump's administration to do business in Venezuela as oil companies, traders and refiners look for access to the country's heavy crude after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, sources said. |
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01-14-26 spal
converted to Colores
====
omne bene futurum |
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01-14-26 spal
| The Pentagon has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and her Carrier Strike Group, consisting of the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers; USS Spruance (DDG-111), USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112), and USS Frank E. Petersen, Jr. (DDG-121), to depart their current position in the South China Sea and steam towards the Middle East. |
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01-14-26 savo
8 years trying to install a puppet in Miraflores before lifting sanctions... and ending up lifting sanctions with the same people in Miraflores ex-Maduro.
Barbados, Mexico, 2024, the treacherous Norwegians...etc.. all a farce to please the Cuban renegades... glad that Rubio converted to Colores and followed our advise... select all and delete...
One piece missing... our bonds... nobody talks about them!
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01-14-26 victor
| This morning I had a very good call with the Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez. We are making tremendous progress, as we help Venezuela stabilize and recover. Many topics were discussed, including Oil, Minerals, Trade and, of course, National Security. This partnership between the United States of America and Venezuela will be a spectacular one FOR ALL. Venezuela will soon be great and prosperous again, perhaps more so than ever before! |
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01-14-26 spal
| BREAKING: Oil prices fall -5% in minutes after President Trump says the “killings have stopped and there are no plans for executions” in Iran. |
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01-14-26 carib
ByREUTERS, SAM HALPERN
JANUARY 14, 2026 15:56
Updated: JANUARY 14, 2026 21:48
US military intervention in Iran could come in the next 24 hours, two European officials said on Wednesday evening, Reuters reported.
An unnamed Israeli official also said it appeared US President Donald Trump had decided to intervene, though the scope and timing remained unclear. |
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01-14-26 carib
| FD Roosevelt, not T Roosevelt. |
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01-14-26 carib
Turns out, the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier did not show up in the Red Sea at all.
CENTCOM's announcement about a Roosevelt in the Red Sea was about something else: a destroyer with the same name, not the massive carrier.
The real USS Roosevelt carrier is still sitting in San Diego. |
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01-14-26 carib
Thanks Edvi.
Khamenei murdabad. |
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01-14-26 panasonic
Air space between Israel and Iran closed.
Factory of virgins now running at full capacity. |
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01-14-26 panasonic
| Edvi, tks for the update, take care! |
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01-14-26 spal
| Edvi - thanks for adding local color to Colores! Viva Venezuela! |
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01-14-26 Edvi
Hello Colores,
Comment from Venny, people in the streets with good hope of the future but very anxious about how is going to work. Most of the people agree it's not the time for MCM. Real Estate up 10-15% and Fx bouncing around 600 bss/$ from the high last week of 830, still the main concern among the general population.
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01-14-26 spal
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01-14-26 spal
Neither the US nor Israel has any interest whatsoever in starting up another war with Iran.
===
I think this is wrong. I follow this guy also. He is chronically opposed to undercut the US position and that clouds his thinking IMO.
The United States recognizes that the Persian Gulf is the energy lung of the Chinese economy. By “deconstructing” the security architecture of the Gulf and plunging Iran into a Syrian-style civil war, Washington introduces a permanent instability into the region. This instability acts as a chokehold on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and disrupts the flow of oil to Beijing. Iran’s 90% oil flows to China and any regime change could nullify the Petro-Yuan trade switching back the Iranian Oil trade to Petro Dollar while creating demand for US Treasuries and its linked stablecoins promoting Hyper-Dollarisation to counter any De-Dollarisation bid.
The ultimate aim of Anglo-American bloc is to cut off the access of the Persian Gulf and its oil, shipping routes to Russia & China. The abduction of President Maduro in Venezuela, Seizing of Russian tankers in Atlantic, recognition of Somaliland by Israel on critical sea lane of Bab Al Mandeb connecting red sea with Gulf of Aden and now targeting Iran taking control of Strait of Hormuz to block Russia & China access into this area.
https://nitishastra.substack.com/p/the-persian-spring-battle-for-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1538245&post_id=184479056&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=kt2vm&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email |
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01-14-26 spal
TGB
TASEKO MINES LTD
Add to Watchlist
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7.18.665
(+10.20%)
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01-14-26 Merlino
Will Schryver
@imetatronink 15h
‼️ The Simple Facts of the Matter
If the US/Israel had in fact decisively defeated Iran in the so-called "12-Day War" in the summer of 2025, there would be ZERO reluctance for them to reprise their great victory here in the winter of 2026.
BUT THERE CLEARLY IS.
Neither the US nor Israel has any interest whatsoever in starting up another war with Iran.
And it is perfectly obvious that the Gulf Sheikdoms are overwhelmingly opposed to the idea as well.
I figure Trump will continue to strut and talk tough for a few days, maybe even send a few B-52s and B-2s to Diego Garcia for a long weekend. But in the end, nothing will come of it — because they are genuinely afraid of the potential consequences.
.............................
I do not know....but he is an American |
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01-14-26 spal
| Breaking: US CENTCOM announced that USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier is now in the Red Sea. |
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01-14-26 spal
| The United States has begun the process of evacuating hundreds of troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest air base in the Middle East, ahead of potential military action ordered by President Donald J. Trump against Iran. Troops at the base are being moved to other facilities and hotels in the region, taking them out of harm's way should an attack trigger retaliation from Iran, according to a U.S. official and a person familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News. |
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01-14-26 spal
MJDLF
MAJOR DRILLING GROUP
===
On watch ... global subcontractor to miners for exploration (now ticking up.
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VALE ... joining the fun ... even the giants need to dance a bit. |
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01-14-26 panasonic
| Carib, I trust intelligence people inside Veni, if they say MCM won't have the support means among military, now that cubans are out it's vital to filter out who is who before any new leadership occupies miraflores. |
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01-14-26 spal
AFMJF
ALPHAMIN RES CORP
DRC tin mine - 7% of global supply. Have a few just for fun. |
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01-14-26 spal
Short-Term Outlook for Tin PricesTin prices have surged dramatically in early 2026, reaching multi-year highs around $49,500–$49,528 per metric ton on the LME as of January 13–14, 2026.
This follows a strong rally, with gains of ~3–6% daily in recent sessions, ~21% monthly, and over 60% year-over-year in some metrics.
Yes, tin has potential to go much higher in the short term (next 1–3 months), potentially testing or exceeding $50,000–$55,000 if current momentum persists. However, this upside carries high volatility and correction risks, as current levels already exceed most 2026 average forecasts ($35,000–$36,000).
====
Even Tin
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01-14-26 carib
Savo: Trump said many things.. and did a few good ones.
He might become a "lame duck" by this november.. so we do not know what comes next.
BTW:
The majority of Venezuelans want María Corina Machado to lead their country following the US’s capture of Nicolás Maduro, a new poll found, contradicting Donald Trump’s claim that the opposition leader doesn’t have the support to rule. The survey carried out by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News also found that the operation failed to garner widespread support within Venezuela, as concerns swirl about Washington’s intentions and how the Chavista government will respond. |
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01-14-26 spal
| Rotation out of the Nasdaq into energy/metals and small caps |
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01-14-26 spal
| TDW ... support boats to Veni ... was all over previously |
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01-14-26 spal
| TGB - through $7 ... may rest at some point, but sentiment is stronger now |
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01-14-26 panasonic
Savo, we must reads between lines.
Diosdy what's up with him and circulos? Delcy is phone operator between him Rubio. |
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01-14-26 spal
| EPM - adding ... buy interest |
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01-14-26 spal
| Approaching $7 now with continued buy interest |
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01-14-26 spal
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01-14-26 savo
carib... dt said he will run veni's oil indefinitely ...
either delcy's provisional regime is indefinite.. or nothing will change under mcm... hence... equally pointless to sit with her |
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01-14-26 panasonic
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01-14-26 carib
Savo: nobody negotiates long term deals with an unrecognised provisional regime..
It is unlikely to be a fast workout anyway.. |
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01-14-26 carib
Panas: given the UST30Y yields close to 5%.. a 2% perpetual secured by Veny oil might trade @30.
Including PDI, recovery would be above current prices indeed.
Add al oil warrant, and we are done! |
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01-14-26 savo
why would anybody be interested in sitting down with Delcy to discuss a debt restructuring?
She does not run the business that is supposed to fund the repayment of the restructured debt.
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01-14-26 panasonic
"US might offer swap into 2% perpetual"
If accrued is included, we are in positive territory from current levels.
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01-14-26 panasonic
Thanks amateur, have been kicked out so many times from the rally during last three years that will go back to covered calls when crazy valuations calm down.
The list of stocks exercised is long and painful, need a liters of laga to dissipate:-)) |
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01-14-26 carib
I also surmise Ramirez is right.
Unsolved political problem adds to cost.. |
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01-14-26 carib
| US might offer swap into 2% perpetual.. |
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01-14-26 panasonic
| SLV non stop flight to 100$ |
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01-14-26 panasonic
"Ex Pdvsa ceo Ramirez says investments needed are way smaller than publicized"
I think he is right, specially taking in consideration the elegant extraction of NM and uninterrupted presence of Chevron, of course Chevron wants to buy at distressed prices, but they know for sure. |
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01-14-26 Merlino
https://www.elnacional.com/2026/01/venezuela-puede-triplicar-su-produccion-de-petroleo-sin-rehacer-la-industria-segun-rafael-ramirez/
...............................
Ex Pdvsa ceo Ramirez says investments needed are way smaller than publicized |
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01-14-26 leopardo
The solution is not oil warrant but a US run restructuring with US guarantees.
Savo could also be.
Anyway two positives for bondholders... |
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01-14-26 carib
| Trump, historically, is a serial defaulter.. |
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01-14-26 savo
IMHO.. if the US decides through Licenses and EO how much oil veni produces...who produces it.. who buys it and at what price...collects the cash and manages it... then it is only logical that the US handles also the foreign debt.
If veni is in a default provoked by the US it is the responsibility of the US to correct that as they are the ones managing veni's purse.
The solution is not oil warrant but a US run restructuring with US guarantees. |
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01-14-26 Merlino
there are some billion in arbitration awards unpaid to oil cos
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This and other claims coming from Chavez´s unilateral nationalizations in 2000s |
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01-14-26 carib
My question is: if a restructuring for clean slate comes up.. how will they deal with existing summary judgements?
is it worth getting one now? |
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01-14-26 carib
| Amateur: about 15 billions, if my memory is correct. Mostly to Conoco. |
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01-14-26 amateur
Merlino, I’ve read somewhere that there are some billion in arbitration awards unpaid to oil cos
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01-14-26 Merlino
Buchheit on Veny restructuring
.........................
He does not see much risk of an Irak haircut however he sees the risk that the US could place a new layer of privileged creditors above bondholders and other creditors : the US gov/army herself and the Oil Cos nationalized in the 70s
Regarding the Oil Cos as far as I know they were fully compensated at the time as per negotiated voluntary agreements |
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01-14-26 leopardo
| Oil warrants will be the carrot of the equation |
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01-14-26 leopardo
| Thanks Carib I'm listening to Lee B... |
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01-14-26 amateur
Pana, I'm in copper with Rio. Quite large lot.
My options job is different, maybe even opposite, to yours:I sit on the shares, sell covered calls >4% out of the money when I like the price, if the mkt keeps rising I roll it to the next month, if it falls I keep the cash and wait a recovery to restart.
Currently my holdings are well in the money, and am short calls at strikes close to current mkt for just over half the position.
Nice ride for the las couple of years.
Small position, same game, in Vale.
Dividends are qualified, cap gain (would be) long so low taxed. Option gains for the time being offset by old losses. |
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01-14-26 spal
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01-14-26 Merlino
Savo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2026-01-08/odd-lots-a-potential-venezuelan-debt-restructuring-podcast |
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