01-05-26 patient-trader
The "Donroe Doctrine"?
Venezuela vice president Rodriguez in Russia, four sources say - https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-vice-president-rodriguez-russia-four-sources-say-2026-01-03/
So Rodriguez was in Moscow during the coup and Maduro had a meeting with the Chinese ambassador just before he was snatched by the US.
It seems that the move against Maduro was pre-arranged with the Russians and Chinese. Maduro also looked rather relaxed when being paraded in NY. He probably received some assurances to be pardoned after some reasonable time.
The Donroe Doctrine likely means to keep countries in the US sphere of influence under control with swift, powerful hits. See also the Don's attack on Iran. So it's not regime change, its regime control. Similarly as in Iran, nothing happens in the short run in Veni. These regimes are rather expected to cooperate with the US. Spal's comment below that the US wants to keep Veni trade in USD and not Yuan fits this.
So what did the Don trade with China and Russia for Veni cooperation? Presumably, a Ukraine which is expected to be more accommodative to Russia.
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01-05-26 hann
Venezuela’s Rodriguez Asks US to Cooperate After Maduro Raid (3)
(Bloomberg) --
Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of Venezuela, asked the US to work with her country, striking a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration after her initial outrage at the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a cooperation agenda, aimed at shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen lasting community coexistence,” she said in a statement released late on Sunday. It’s a sharp turnaround from the remarks she made in the hours after US forces snatched Maduro on Saturday and launched a series of targeted strikes in the capital and nearby cities. Her initial statements denounced the actions and called for Maduro’s return.After the operation, President Donald Trump said a team of US officials will “run” the country and that Rodríguez would work alongside them.On Sunday, Trump told the Atlantic magazine that some rebuilding will be needed in Venezuela as he issued a warning to Rodríguez. “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” he said. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would watch her actions more than her rhetoric. Read more: Trump Snatches Maduro But Leaves Regime in Charge for NowSpeaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump reiterated to reporters that the US needed “total access” to oil to rebuild the country. He also said Rodríguez’s characterization of Maduro’s capture a kidnapping wasn’t “a bad term.”Rodríguez is a former oil minister and well versed in the challenges of operating state producer Petróleos de Venezuela SA and working with international firms. But Trump’s vision to boost production from the country is a daunting and expensive task.Read more: Trump’s Venezuela Oil Revival Plan Is a $100 Billion GambleWhile Rodríguez’s statement late Sunday could be a sign she’s ready to cooperate with Trump, it may also raise the hackles of hard-liners within her government who for years have viewed the US as an imperialist threat — and who viewed Maduro’s capture as a violation of national sovereignty.Rodríguez will face a test of her hold on power in the country on Monday, when a new group of lawmakers are sworn in at the National Assembly. There is confusion about whether a formal swearing-in ceremony is required for her, according to two lawmakers, who asked not to be identified to avoid repercussions. Read more: Venezuela Path to Elections Is Unclear After Maduro’s Ouster For now, Maduro’s status is being treated by Venezuelan officials as a temporary forced absence, and he’s still being called the president in state media. Maduro is due to appear in a New York courtroom on Monday. |
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01-05-26 amateur
Delcy is a second rate character, I doubt she can remove Padrino or Cabello or make them do anything. Or deliver them to DT.
Anyway it is silly to threaten her openly, it makes it difficult to collaborate. |
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01-05-26 savo
victor... i think you are right... i never heard mcm asking for a military invasion...i heard Borges though asking for one.
But she did not oppose the aggression of the US against venezuela.
My opinion has always been that the US behaved as an enemy of Venezuela... and i you heard Rubio today I think you will agree with that now. They do not care about venezuela...they do not want US adversaries having a presence in veni or taking veni resources.
Having a dictatorship does not make the people of venezuela or venezuelan creditors guilty of anything and as such should not have been punished. Irrespective of how bad chavism was.. sanctions made life in venezuela and for creditors of venezuela worse.
MCM should have opposed that... instead she sided with the aggressor and befriended the cuban renegades.
So I am glad to see her under a bus... and I hope she never comes out from down there... although I think she eventually will and will also be president of veni.
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01-05-26 victor
savo, a vz said that the #1 mistake egu and mcm made was not requesting military assistance from the usa.
apparently, they both refused to request military aid in toppling nm, at least in public, which upset dt. |
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01-04-26 carib
| Alvin Hellerstein, un juez judío ortodoxo, de 92 años, que fue nombrado por Bill Clinton, hace casi tres décadas, para ocupar su puesto en la corte federal, será el encargado de presidir el juicio contra Nicolás Maduro. El presidente de Venezuela fue capturado el sábado por fuerzas del ejército de Estados Unidos mientras dormía en Caracas y trasladado al centro de detención de reclusos de Brooklyn a la espera de comparecer en el juzgado. |
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01-04-26 savo
Incidentally, have you noticed that Trump did not mention Gonzalez Urrutia even once?
MCM at least was mentioned to say that she is not up to the task... (something I have been saying for ages btw). |
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01-04-26 savo
victor.. all i am saying that she will cooperate... not that 100% of chavism will align with the colonial power.
I imagine many Venezuelans abroad are starting to regret what they asked for.
The psycho will be the one Venezuelans blame.
She was the one adulating Trump all these months. This is the outcome...
She thought Trump was going to do the dirty job and hand over power graciously to her, Guaido, Lopez, Borges and Ledesma.
I told you many times that was not going to be the case. Trump is after the money, the oil, the metals and the economic security that running veni and extracting resources from it provides the US.
Now that it is in the open, MCM has no role to play, hence ...the bus.
But Delcy's survival depends on aligning... so she will align and once she is sworn in tomorrow she will surround herself of people who does too.
This is a reasonable good outcome for us.
May be she lasts me be she doesn't and there is counter coup.
What we should be hoping is that they do not treat us as they treated Iraki bondholders.
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01-04-26 victor
savo, she will cooperate... why wouldn't she?
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not really accurate
El Gobierno de Venezuela comenzó a difundir este domingo una imagen para exigir la liberación del presidente Nicolás Maduro y de su esposa, Cilia Flores, quienes fueron capturados el sábado en un operativo militar de Estados Unidos y trasladados a Nueva York para enfrentar cargos de narcotráfico y armas, que Caracas rechaza.
La imagen fue distribuida en los canales oficiales de Telegram del propio Maduro y del ministro de Comunicación e Información, Freddy Ñáñez. En ella se muestra una foto de las manos entrelazadas de Maduro y Flores, acompañada del conteo “Ha transcurrido 1 día de su secuestro” y de la frase “Los queremos de vuelta”.El Gobierno venezolano ha calificado la captura de Maduro por parte de EE.UU. como un secuestro.
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01-04-26 carib
Savo: that is the lifting of the additional flight restrictions introduced on saturday morning by the FAA. Not the lifting of the restrictions in the Veny airspace, as far as I understand.
Yesterday on my island zero flights from the USA.. today catching up on backlog. |
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01-04-26 savo
air blockade over...
(EFE).- El secretario de Transporte de Estados Unidos, Sean Duffy, informó que las restricciones al espacio aéreo en el Caribe, implementadas en la mañana, a raíz del ataque de Washington sobre Venezuela, se levantaron a la medianoche de este sábado (05:00 GMT).
«Los vuelos pueden retomarse. Las aerolíneas están informadas y actualizarán pronto sus horarios», anunció Duffy en su cuenta de X. |
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01-04-26 savo
victor... she will cooperate... why wouldn't she?
Under the new model veni could be producing 5mm barrels in a a few years... under the old model veni was condemned to perpetual poverty.
what i do not know is if the ELN and other Hezbollah operatives will cooperate. |
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01-04-26 carib
Savo: the Trump administration is usually big in showbiz and small on details.
At present all we know is that the blockade is still on, the Ford still in the Carib, and the F22s still in Portorico.
Today a few commercial local flights are operating in Veny. |
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01-04-26 victor
confirmed
//
US President Donald Trump has threatened that Venezuela's interim leader Delcy Rodriguez will pay a "very big price" if she doesn't co-operate with the United States, after US forces seized and jailed her former boss Nicolás Maduro.
"If she doesn't do what's right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro," Trump told The Atlantic in a brief telephone interview. |
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01-04-26 savo
i do not understand what mechanics does Rubio envisage for veni's oil business...
they were producing 1.2 mm barrels... some for the locas...some of that was going with chevron to the US... most of that to china... a bit of that to cuba for free.
No more oil to Cuba i guess
No more oil to China?
Who will take that oil?
will that entity need a license?
Where will that oil go in the meantime?
Corps form US allies... can they just go and sign a PSA with Delcy? or do they need to get approval from the US first?
Can non-sanctioned tankers enter veni freely and load oil? or does the sea blockade continues?
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01-04-26 victor
Trump amenaza a Delcy Rodríguez: «Pagará un precio mayor que Maduro si no hace lo correcto»
Tras la extracción de Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro en la madrugada de este sábado, Donald Trump no ha dudado en amenazar a la actual presidenta interina del país caribeño, Delcy Rodríguez. «Si no hace lo correcto, pagará un precio muy alto, probablemente mayor que Maduro», ha asegurado en una entrevista telefónica con la revista 'The Atlantic'. |
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01-04-26 carib
| Flights resumed normally, on my island, today. |
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01-04-26 carib
| WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested Sunday that the United States would not take a day-to-day role in governing Venezuela other than enforcing an existing “oil quarantine” on the country, a turnaround after President Donald Trump announced a day earlier that the U.S. would be running Venezuela following its ouster of leader Nicolás Maduro. |
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01-04-26 carib
| Rubio more reasonable than Trump, then. |
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01-04-26 spal
Savo: back to our traditional disagreement, then.
===
There must be stability and constants in the world Carib. If no one else can provide it Colores must ...
;)
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01-04-26 savo
good interview to Rubio:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/secretary-state-marco-rubio-us-capture-maduro-war-venezuela-elections-rcna252111 |
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01-04-26 savo
meanwhile the Cuban renegades are fuming in Florida... trump re-paying in kind
https://www.libertaddigital.com/internacional/latinoamerica/2026-01-04/la-indignacion-de-un-congresista-preguntado-por-la-falta-de-apoyo-a-maria-corina-machado-sera-presidenta-7339781/
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01-04-26 carib
"Sigo con gran preocupación la evolución de la situación en Venezuela", con estas palabras el Santo Padre León XIV inició su llamado después de la oración mariana del Ángelus de este domingo 4 de enero de 2026 en la Plaza de San Pedro tras los recientes acontecimientos en el país.
"El bien del amado pueblo venezolano (aseveró) debe prevalecer por encima de cualquier otra consideración y llevar a superar la violencia y emprender caminos de justicia y paz, garantizando la soberanía del país, asegurando el estado de derecho inscrito en la Constitución, respetando los derechos humanos y civiles de todos y cada uno, y trabajando para construir juntos un futuro sereno de colaboración, estabilidad y concordia".
Do catholics have to follow the Pope's indications?
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01-04-26 carib
| Savo: back to our traditional disagreement, then. |
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01-04-26 savo
spal.. on the matter of silver..
The risk of ETFs like SLV (iShares) and SIVR (abrdn) "failing" in 2026 isn't necessarily that they will go to zero, but rather that they could functionally break as investment vehicles.
With China’s export ban going live tomorrow, the gap between "paper claims" and "physical bars" has never been wider. Here is how a "failure" would likely play out in the coming weeks.
ETFs maintain their price link to silver through Authorized Participants (APs)—large banks like JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs. When you buy SLV, an AP is supposed to buy physical silver and hand it to the vault in exchange for new ETF shares.
If the Chinese ban makes physical silver unavailable at the "official" spot price, APs will stop creating new shares.
The ETF becomes a "closed-end fund." If demand for silver spikes in January, SLV could trade at a 30%, 50%, or 100% premium over the spot price because no new silver can be added to the vault to meet the demand. You would be buying "silver" at a massive markup that could vanish instantly if supply returns.
The biggest legal risk hidden in the prospectuses of SLV and SIVR is the Cash Settlement provision.
If the Trust determines it can no longer safely or effectively acquire silver to back its shares, it has the right to suspend redemptions and eventually liquidate the fund for cash.
Imagine physical silver is trading in the "black market" or Shanghai for $120/oz, but the COMEX paper price is stuck at $80/oz due to exchange-imposed price caps. If the ETF is forced to settle in cash, they will pay you out at the $80 "paper" price, effectively "stealing" the $40 gain you would have had if you held physical metal.
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01-04-26 savo
carib.. veni has been an informal US colony since 2017.
What Trump is doing now is making it formal.
The upside is that oil production can go to 5 mm barrels like in irak, debt be restructures and access to financial markets normalized.
The downside is that those venezuelans that were hoping for a US invasion and were celebrating yesterday probably already changed their minds. |
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01-04-26 carib
| Savo: I mean.. Trump does not care much about legality, and bonds are papelitos wrapped in legality. |
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01-04-26 carib
In theory, there are four options:
1) the real winner of the 2024 elections is internationally recognised, and sworn in under a "peaceful, national reconciliation agreement" (unlikely at this time)
2) Delcy is accepted as interim president, new elections are called in February, under international supervision, and the winner takes office (also not very likely)
3) TRUMP treats Veny as a colony.. but then the US must actually take military control, which would be possible but difficult politically
4) the mess goes on, as in Gaza.
Bottom line: let us see prices tomorrow, and stay tuned. |
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01-04-26 savo
i like the scheme in place now (power vacuum has been avoided for now)... but I am worried about the psycho... she has nothing to lose now.. she is abroad... will dedicate herself to gather support from all those Trump haters in Europe and elsewhere.
Anything that goes wrong she will use to bash Trump's plan. |
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01-04-26 savo
| something interesting... DJ Vance was not present at yesterday's conference. |
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01-04-26 savo
| i agree that trump has not shown any care for bond investors... but there was a financial impossibility to care even if he wanted to... i wonder whether the blackrocks of the world will go now and say.. ok.. now it is our time. |
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01-04-26 pillz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-04/venezuela-bond-investors-eye-further-gains-post-maduro-capture?srnd=homepage-americas
Venezuela Bond Investors Bet on More Gains Post-Maduro Capture |
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01-04-26 carib
| I am not sure Trump cares much about bondholders.. but let us see what comes next. |
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01-04-26 spal
| Savo - yes - if they want this magic trick to continue. |
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01-04-26 savo
| will creditors ever enter Trump's equation? |
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01-04-26 savo
good post...
question: will the US ensure that higher oil production and sales trickles down for the benefit of the people of venezuela as trump said?
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01-04-26 spal
A key undercurrent is Venezuela's pre-intervention shift toward de-dollarization: Since 2018, it settled 100% of oil exports to China (its primary buyer) in yuan, bypassing the U.S. dollar, and as a 2024 BRICS+ partner, it was exploring a basket of member currencies for settlements to evade sanctions.
This challenged the petrodollar system, where oil trades predominantly in dollars sustain U.S. financial leverage; analysts argue the U.S. action counters this trend, preventing a precedent that could accelerate BRICS-driven non-dollar trade (already 85-90% intra-bloc) and protect dollar dominance in global energy markets.
While low SPR levels heighten U.S. sensitivity to supply disruptions—potentially exacerbating diesel squeezes from Venezuelan heavy crude outages—the intervention's timing and rhetoric suggest broader motivations, including geopolitical containment of China/Russia influence and enforcing dollar-based oil pricing, rather than SPR depletion alone as the primary driver.
That said, securing Venezuelan supplies (priced in dollars) could indirectly aid SPR rebuilding by providing cheaper heavy crude for domestic refining and strategic stockpiling, aligning with Trump's emphasis on "reimbursement" through oil wealth.
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01-04-26 savo
(bloomberg) Trump Snatches Maduro But Leaves His Regime in Charge for Now
Nobel Winner Machado Left Out of Trump Venezuela Plan So Far
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01-04-26 savo
as expected, the psycho initiated her counter offensive.. this is getting messy.
meanwhile.. according to the veni constitution:
Si ocurre una “falta absoluta” del Presidente durante los primeros cuatro (4) años del período presidencial,
el Vicepresidente Ejecutivo asume como Presidente encargado y debe convocar elecciones presidenciales dentro de los 30 días consecutivos.
Si la falta absoluta ocurre en los últimos dos (2) años del período presidencial,
el Vicepresidente Ejecutivo asume y completa el período, sin convocar elecciones.
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01-04-26 victor
María Corina Machado
Muchas gracias, Presidente Macron.
La libertad de TODOS los presos políticos es nuestra inmediata prioridad.
Le pido a los jefes de Estado y de Gobierno y a todos los demócratas del mundo que nos apoyen en esta hora decisiva.
Venezuela será libre. |
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01-04-26 victor
Emmanuel Macron
Acabo de hablar con @MariaCorinaYA.
Apoyo plenamente su llamado a la liberación y a la protección de los presos políticos del régimen de Nicolás Maduro.
Como todos los venezolanos, puede contar con el apoyo de Francia para alzar la voz en favor de una transición pacífica, democrática y plenamente respetuosa de la voluntad soberana del pueblo venezolano. |
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01-04-26 victor
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says the headlines about Gen Z’s fears about AI and the job market are real.
The bank recently hired 2,000 top grads from 200,000 applications, the executive said in an interview with CBS News‘ Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation. As companies cite AI for widespread layoffs, Moynihan acknowledges that many young people feel scared and uncertain about the future. |
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01-04-26 carib
| TSJ ordena que Delcy Rodríguez asuma como presidenta encargada de Venezuela |
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01-04-26 carib
Savo: Delcy declined being sworn (so she said)
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01-04-26 savo
| Delcy Rodríguez asume como presidenta encargada ante ausencia de Maduro por decisión del TSJ |
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01-04-26 savo
i guess we are all following the same news... but something is not working here...
While Maduro is history... nothing seems to have changed in veni... the same old actors are in place...
No evidence of Delcy being sworn... Diosdado still in the news... Pdrino on X... The streets of Caracas under the control of the same police and the same military as before.
Borges, Guaido, Lopez, Ledezma.. nowhere to be seen... MCM still revolving under a bus.
Difficult to imagine US oils landing personnel in veni to take control of decrepit oil fields while there is still an air and sea blockade and US citizens continue to be under risk of being kidnapped or arrested.
As usual the military part is the easy one... what comes after is the difficult part....and the US track record in that front is very poor.
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01-04-26 spal
Following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Operation Absolute Resolve, OSINT and web chatter suggest a 60-70% likelihood of U.S. moves to "regularize" Cuba ...
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01-04-26 spal
The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, serves as a deliberate demonstration of American military prowess to adversaries, especially autocratic regimes. Executed with over 150 aircraft and Delta Force operators, the mission's precision and zero U.S. casualties highlight advanced capabilities, intelligence, and logistics. By publicizing details and framing it as a stand against "outlaw dictators," the Trump administration signals that no leader is beyond U.S. reach, echoing historical interventions like Noriega's capture.This act targets Maduro's defiance, backed by Russia, China, and Iran, and underscores a "peace through strength" policy amid escalating pressures on Venezuela.Geopolitically, it enhances deterrence, making autocrats like Putin or Xi more cautious in supporting proxies or challenging U.S. interests. It emboldens regional allies, potentially accelerating democratic transitions in Venezuela under U.S. oversight. However, risks include backlash from Latin American nations, accusations of imperialism, and asymmetric responses from foes, such as cyber attacks or fortified alliances. This shifts global calculus toward assertive U.S. unilateralism, but success hinges on a stable post-capture transition, with potential for heightened tensions if mishandled.
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01-04-26 savo
| carib... maduro is old history... still unknown who runs Miraflores... |
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