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01-26-26 carib
blaming and "questioning" is indeed very easy. Solving.. much harder.
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01-26-26 carib
SPAL: a century ago.. people started "questioning " the "belle epoque" and got something worse for a few decades.
The global order can certainly be altered, for better or for worse.
I would prefer for better.
In the USA, I am an outside observer, and as such I observe radical polarisation, which is bad. |
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01-26-26 victor
pana, the unpredictability of vox.. this is extremadura, a region.
vox refuses to even meet with the pp.
now imagine what vox is capable of doing after next general election. in terms of uncertainty, etc.
//
PP y Vox sigue sin mantener contacto en Extremadura y se culpan entre sí de la falta de acuerdo
Tras la constitución de la Asamblea, hace prácticamente una semana, ambas formaciones siguen sin reunirse con las negociaciones en punto muerto y lejos de llegar a buen puerto
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01-26-26 spal
Carib - if I am correct both of your scenarios indicate wrong direction ... e.g. an abysss (and then a reversal) ... but first directionally to an abyss.
And civil war.
Certainly the direction (and some of the assumptions) over the past 40-50 years is being questioned. That is clear. |
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01-26-26 carib
| When in doubt, get out—if you don’t want to be in a civil war or a war, you should get out while the getting is good. |
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01-26-26 carib
I see two different scenarios..
1) looking into the abyss make people opt for reasonable solutions, and then the precious metals spike proves just to be such.
2) we really head for deep shit in the US (disruption, civil violence, etc) and then gold becomes the main safe haven, and keeps getting pricier. But in that case, better holding it abroad, in a safe, in bars form.
Ray Dalio, FWIW, thinks we are getting closer to the brink. |
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01-26-26 spal
Century Aluminum, Emirates Global Aluminium to Build First New US Primary Aluminum Plant Since 1980
07:44 AM CST, January 26, 2026
-- Century Aluminum (CENX) and Emirates Global Aluminium said Monday that they have agreed to build the first new primary aluminum production plant in the US since 1980.
Under the agreement, Emirates Global will own 60% of the joint venture, while Century will own the remaining 40%.
The plant, to be located in Inola, Oklahoma, is expected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminum annually. It will also create 1,000 permanent jobs and 4,000 jobs during construction.
The companies said construction is expected to start by the end of the year and production is set to begin by the end of the decade.
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Command economy and friends brought over the wall ... |
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01-26-26 spal
| Stops tightened under all positions |
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01-26-26 savo
Nonsense is our speciality
:-)))) |
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01-26-26 spal
UURAF
UCORE RARE METALS IN
Processing in US ... added |
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01-26-26 spal
what do you think can hapen to precious metals?
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Nonsense is our speciality ... |
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01-26-26 spal
ARMN
ARIS MNG CORP
Adding
These are the days of miracle and wonder
This is the long distance call |
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01-26-26 savo
| spal ... if Trump and all his nonsense were to be ejected... what do you think can hapen to precious metals? |
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01-26-26 spal
| Silver approaching 10% up on the day |
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01-26-26 spal
| AU ... anglogold ashanti ... delivering |
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01-26-26 spal
| TGB ... in ordit ... those holding (it may still go higher) |
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01-26-26 panasonic
| FCX big volume in calls Feb.20th Strike 65$, trimmed. |
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01-26-26 spal
ARMN
ARIS MNG CORP
Gold (some copper and silver)
Political Risk ... Colombia
But world class producer - world class management |
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01-26-26 spal
COPJ
SPROTT JUNIOR COPPER MINERS ETF
53.15 (+9.32%)
Premarket - today
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01-26-26 spal
US Critical Mineral Stockpile Bill for $2.5billion Introduced
Authored by GoldFix
GFN – WASHINGTON: A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has introduced legislation to establish a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve for critical minerals, aiming to stabilize prices, support domestic mining and refining, and reduce U.S. dependence on China-dominated supply chains. |
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01-26-26 spal
| Ali Moshiri, Chevron's former head for Africa and Latin America who is now CEO of Houston-based Amos Global Energy, has been preparing for years to enter Venezuela and has been in early-stage talks to raise as much as $2 billion. |
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01-26-26 spal
HOUSTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - In a downtown Houston bar, Matthew Goitia, a director at Pelorus Terminals, lays out his early idea to refurbish and build marine terminals that can blend and export crude and ship chemical products in Venezuela.
The ambitious plan he estimates would cost $250 million to $1 billion requires him to refurbish an existing crude oil marine terminal in Venezuela ...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-oil-capital-houston-buzzes-111221828.html
Play is services |
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01-26-26 spal
| Savo - in terms of sector funds for copper I like COPJ very much. On big animals RIO is being pulled up by its tilt to copper. Concerning small amimals TGB may run more. I like HBM also. |
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01-26-26 savo
spal.. how would you pay cooper?
COPX or COPP for the miners...
CPER for the mineral... but it is not the physical... they do future contracts... so they lose money in the roll over..
anything else? |
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01-26-26 leopardo
| Gold and Silver all The rest is blablabla |
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01-26-26 spal
| BREAKING: Gold futures officially rise above $5,100/oz for the first time in history. |
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01-26-26 spal
Tin futures went limit up in China
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01-26-26 spal
China is buying everything physical: silver +13.8%, platinum +10.6%, tin +8.6%, palladium +8.8%.
Strategic stockpiling across the commodity complex. |
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01-26-26 spal
🇨🇳Precious metals hit record high again. Shanghai #silver jumped 13.8% in China on Monday, #tin +8.6%, #gold +3.7%. Guangzhou #platinum +10.6%, #palladium +8.8%. #Lithium carbonate +6%.
Shanghai #nickel +3.2%, #copper +2.7%, #aluminum +1.3%, #zinc +0.8%.
INE crude oil jumps 2.9%, Freight Index +4.9%. #OOTT
#IronOre +0.4%, #steel rebars +0.7%. +0.4%, #steel rebars +0.7%.
#CHINA #COMMODITY $XAGUSD $XAG $SLV $XAUUSD $XAU $GLD $XPD $XPDUSD $XPT $XPTUSD
Chickity China, the Chinese chicken
You have a drumstick and your brain stops tickin' |
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01-26-26 spal
Schpal's list of junior gold miners with the highest torque to Gold price where risk-adjusted upside is tested for minimal dilution (as you will see a lot of equity and other securities being dropped into the market by many operators):
1. K92
2. Wesdome
3. Aris
4. IAMGOLD
5. Fortuna
This is explicity a (now) late-cycle gold move - these still have valuation gaps + margin expansion + delayed recognition converge.
Current hold only K92 ... but may trade the others around. |
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01-26-26 spal
| And when these trends turn (as they will) they will be savage on the downside ... miners will get killed. Be agressive, be quick and manage risk ... |
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01-26-26 spal
Savo - ok, but personally that time frame has many complete reptures in the configuration of the economy. We are talking comparing making horse shoes to 2 nanometer transistors.
I think the comparisons to the 80's are more in scope. Mostly 3/4's of the silver production goes to industrial uses. This will ultimately determine its value. It has limited investment value, but this is hyped (approaching mania, but still with some gas in the can) right now. Paper silver greatly exceeds physical etc.
Comex can kill this rise if needed. I think the mania runs 12 months or so max. I think it can go somewhat higher in the meantime. As can gold. As can copper. I have positions, but I trail stops. |
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01-26-26 savo
Venezuela Investors Are Facing A Legal Minefield as US Recalibrates Stance
By Bloomberg News
January 23, 2026 at 6:40 PM GMT+1
Investors who want to take part in the White House’s plans to revitalize Venezuela’s oil-based economy are at risk of stepping into a political and legal minefield over diplomatic recognition.
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is not officially recognized by the US and other countries as Venezuela’s rightful authority. Instead, that distinction still belongs — at least on paper — to members of the opposition-led legislature who were elected more than a decade ago.
This recognition status, seemingly at odds with President Donald Trump’s full-throated endorsement of Rodríguez, means that companies would face off in US court against lawyers working for opposition politicians largely living in exile, in the event of any legal disputes over their investments. And any contracts signed with Venezuelan state-owned entities — including the national oil company — could get torn up by a future government intent on challenging Rodríguez’s constitutional standing and legitimacy.
What’s more, US courts hearing cases involving billions of dollars in disputed Venezuelan assets follow the American government’s official diplomatic stance, so the opposition still represents the country in ongoing legal battles against scores of jilted creditors, arbitration claimants and other plaintiffs, as it has for years.
“The concern here is if in 10 days, Delcy Rodríguez is no longer acting president, we have someone like González come in and González says, ‘Hey, we’re not going to honor any of those contracts that you just signed because they weren’t signed by a legitimate representative of the Venezuelan government,’” said Ingrid Brunk, chair of international law at Vanderbilt Law School, referring to Edmundo González, the exiled retired diplomat who is widely considered the rightful winner of Venezuela’s contested 2024 presidential election, based on an independent vote tally.
Until the US addresses this recognition issue, Venezuela is unlikely to attract desperately needed long-term investment, as companies shy away from agreements that would be difficult to enforce in the US, one of many risks they are weighing in a country once known as a stable, prosperous democracy, legal experts say. Creditors won’t be able to restructure unpaid debts. And for the Rodríguez administration, access to billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets abroad, including frozen bank accounts, gold reserves in the Bank of England and Special Drawing Rights at the International Monetary Fund, will remain elusive.
The recognition lag is growing more conspicuous as Venezuela’s new leadership moves swiftly to roll back decades of state-led legislation to draw back investors. Among the proposed reforms is a provision to allow for international arbitration of contract disputes, a measure that would help to restore investor confidence by avoiding Venezuela’s politicized court system. But in the US, the measure could not be implemented until the US recognizes the Rodríguez government.
Even in recent days, US recognition “has been explicit and repeatedly reaffirmed” in “statements of interest filed by the US government in US courts,” said Dinorah Figuera, president of the opposition-led parallel assembly who is now based in Spain.
In response to a request for comment on the recognition issue, a State Department spokesperson said the Trump administration “continues to work with the interim authorities to stabilize Venezuela” in a three-part plan outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The roots of the conundrum date back to 2019, when the first Trump administration imposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and withdrew recognition of strongman Nicolás Maduro in favor of then-National Assembly head Juan Guaidó, who declared himself the country’s legitimate president based on a constitutional provision. The US shut its embassy in Caracas and Venezuelan diplomats withdrew from Washington.
Scores of other countries followed suit on the US stance. Although Guaidó was in Caracas at the time, most of his parallel administration was living abroad or eventually fled, often rubbing shoulders in Congress and influential think tanks in the US capital. As government harassment grew, Guaidó would later leave too.
In that period, the emboldened parallel administration set up ad-hoc boards of exiles to oversee international assets owned by Venezuela’s state-run Petróleos de Venezuela SA and the central bank. These boards remain active in US courts. Critically, the first Trump administration granted the parallel administration access to more than $300 million in frozen Venezuelan Central Bank funds in the US banking system.
The most visible of these parallel entities is PDVSA’s ad-hoc board, which represents the company in a years-long court battle over the shares in Houston-based refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp., Venezuela’s most valuable overseas holding. A court-ordered auction of the shares is close to reaching a final outcome.
Neither PDVSA ad-hoc board chair Horacio Medina nor the board’s press contact could be reached for comment.
The lack of clarity about formal recognition is part of a wider constellation of risks that will probably keep most oil companies away from Venezuela for now, said Luis Pacheco, who served as the first chair of PDVSA’s ad-hoc board from April 2019 to December 2020.
“Don’t you think companies that are going to sink billions of dollars in Venezuela are going to think about this? This is not a risk that can be measured,” Pacheco said. “If you want to do a deal, you would not only need a US license but also a compliance test.”
One court in New York handling a claim on Venezuelan assets has now requested that the US present a filing to clarify its position on recognition, with a Feb. 11 deadline.
US President Donald Trump, center left, speaks during a meeting with oil executives in the East Room of the White House in Washington on Jan. 9.Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA/Bloomberg
“The way to solve this is to recognize Delcy, but that’s a very premature move,” said José Ignacio Hernández, senior specialist at consultancy Aurora Macro Strategies and the parallel administration’s former attorney general.
The thorny issue is among many facing oil companies as they weigh Trump’s push to reinvigorate Venezuela’s oil industry. Citing current legal and commercial frameworks in Venezuela, Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods has described Venezuela as “uninvestable.”
On Jan. 5, the same day that Rodríguez was sworn in as Nicolás Maduro’s successor in Caracas, Venezuela’s opposition-led National Assembly elected in 2015 — which former President Joe Biden said was the country’s last democratically elected body — renewed its leadership for another year. Their original term expired in 2021, but the opposition has repeatedly extended the mandates of its lawmakers, initially to preserve the former interim government structure.
The parallel authorities can also hinder efforts to gain access to other assets. For years, Venezuela’s central bank has been trying to recover gold stored in the Bank of England’s vaults in London as part of the country’s foreign reserves.
British courts, following UK recognition policy, blocked Maduro’s attempts to repatriate or sell the gold, ruling that the Bank of England could rely on instructions aligned with UK foreign policy, which had recognized Guaidó’s authority at key points in the litigation. Since then, the case has ricocheted through appeals, with courts repeatedly denying access to the central bank in Caracas.
For now, relations between US and Venezuela are rapidly thawing, even though Trump’s backing for the “very, very smart” leadership in Caracas hasn’t yet translated into recognition of the new administration as the country’s legitimate representative. Further muddying the outlook, Trump has said he likes opposition leader María Corina Machado “a lot,” and wants her to be involved “somehow.”
As Rodríguez consolidates power, the US is airing out its embassy in the Venezuelan capital in anticipation of a reopening. Venezuelan diplomats are cautiously doing the same in Washington.
“It’s unusual to have assisted someone to come into power and then not recognize them,” said Vanderbilt Law’s Brunk. “You still have just dramatic political instability and the mere recognition is not going to really fully solve that problem for the oil companies.
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01-26-26 savo
good example of how phenomenally undervalued silver is...
if it goes back to 1:15 as in the days of the US independence...
it would mean 330 silver... but of course gold will go up too...
for a 10k gold... silver would be 660.
Given the tenant in the WH and the crony soon to arrive at the fed.. i would say it is a reasonable target.
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01-26-26 pillz
Six key questions about Venezuela's potential debt restructuring: analysis from a think tank of bankers
Sun Jan 25 16:52:22 2026 EDT
Political changes in Venezuela have reignited hopes for a restructuring of Venezuelan debt, prompting a sharp rebound in defaulted bonds. Market estimates put the country's external public debt at over $160 billion, well above the figures reported. US-based asset managers hold most of the defaulted bonds, making their participation critical to any agreement.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents major banks, funds, and insurance companies, released an extensive article answering six key questions.
Debt size and main creditors
1) What is the size of Venezuela's external public debt and who are the main creditors?
Official data on Venezuela's external debt is outdated and is considered to underestimate the true size and composition of liabilities. While figures from the World Bank and IMF Joint External Debt Center put external debt at around $42.8 billion in 2024, the latest official estimates from the Bank of Canada and Bank of England's Sovereign Default Database suggest that Venezuela's defaulted debt reached $96 billion in 2024. Market-based estimates for the outstanding public external debt are significantly higher, ranging from $150 billion to $195 billion.
More recent estimates from Transparencia Venezuela (a Venezuelan non-governmental organization dedicated to preventing, investigating, and exposing corruption in the country) provide some clarity, placing the outstanding external debt balance at over $164 billion at the end of 2024. Outstanding bonds, including sovereign and PDVSA bonds, account for approximately 58% of the total. Sovereign and PDVSA bonds are held by US-based asset managers, followed by Luxembourg-based asset managers, with around 15%.
Venezuela has no debt with the IMF. Official bilateral and multilateral creditors account for about 18% of Venezuela's defaulted debt, and China accounts for about 10%.
2) What are Venezuela's main infrastructure investment needs, and to what extent might meeting them require external financing, including from private external creditors?
Venezuela's most urgent infrastructure investment needs are concentrated in the oil sector, which is critical to any short-term economic recovery. While economic diversification will be important over time, oil remains the fastest and most scalable source of public revenue, foreign exchange, and financing for reconstruction. In fact, the macroeconomic outlook and political stability will depend on the restoration of oil production capacity. Given depleted international reserves, extremely limited fiscal space, and large external debt, meeting these investment needs will require substantial external financing, including from private creditors.
Venezuela has one of the world's largest hydrocarbon reserves, including extra-heavy oil, mature conventional fields, and natural gas. Current estimates suggest that oil production could increase to 2.5-3 million barrels per day over the next decade. This would require sustained investment of between $10 billion and $12 billion annually, more than $100 billion in total. The recovery is likely to be gradual.
The return of the IMF?
3) Would a conventional restructuring, backed by the IMF and involving all creditors, face particular complexities or longer timeframes?
Venezuela has not received a formal IMF mission since 2004, and no standard Article IV consultation has been conducted since then. Furthermore, the IMF has had no official contact with Venezuela since 2019. While the IMF’s role would be crucial—and the Fund could, in principle, move quickly to expand its engagement following a formal request backed by its members—the severe lack of data would almost certainly slow the process. These constraints would add time for IMF staff to prepare a prior Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), assess the full scope of required financing guarantees, and ultimately lay the groundwork for a possible debt restructuring in the future.
Any IMF-backed process involving official creditors would likely seek to bring together Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors. Given Venezuela’s unique geopolitical context and its importance in the broader strategic competition between the United States and China, reaching consensus among official creditors could take considerable time and may not yield immediate results.
4) Could a sequential approach to engagement with creditors, potentially starting with private creditors, offer a more pragmatic path?
There are precedents for sovereign debt restructurings with private creditors outside of a formal IMF lending program, suggesting that a sequential approach starting with private creditors could be viable in Venezuela's case.
• Argentina (2020) restructured its private bond debt without an IMF-backed financing agreement, instead resorting to negotiations based on the IMF’s debt sustainability analysis, with the Fund playing only a limited role in technical assistance.
• Belize (2017) completed a private sector restructuring without an IMF financing package or a formal IMF Debt Sustainability Agreement (DSA).
• A similar approach was seen in the Republic of Chad (2018), where an agreement was reached with private creditors without the involvement of official creditors.
Precedents for debt restructuring
5) Are there lessons from past and current debt restructuring cases that can help inform considerations for Venezuela?
Iraq, Puerto Rico, and Lebanon are widely cited as cases comparable to Venezuela, but each presents important differences.
Iraq's post-2003 restructuring was made possible by exceptional circumstances, including significant debt cancellations for official and commercial creditors, backed by UN Security Council measures. Private sector claims were relatively small, representing approximately 15% of total external debt, and extraordinary legal and political mechanisms helped neutralize holdouts.
These conditions do not apply to Venezuela. Private creditors account for a much larger share of Venezuela's debt, and given the current geopolitical dynamics, support for a UN-backed statutory approach similar to that in Iraq seems highly unlikely.
Consequently, the Iraq precedent offers limited practical guidance for Venezuela. Lebanon's still-unresolved restructuring following its 2020 default underscores the importance of domestic political stability and policy consistency. Prolonged political uncertainty has significantly delayed progress. A similar risk could arise in Venezuela if there is no clear perception that an interim government has the authority to negotiate with creditors or issue new debt. Legal continuity is essential for successful renegotiation: future governments should not be able to invalidate a restructuring or newly issued obligations.
6) To what extent could US policy measures, including executive orders, influence the pace or design of a future Venezuelan debt restructuring?
Recent US policy measures, particularly the January 9 executive order, offer preliminary indications of the Trump administration's emerging approach to Venezuelan debt restructuring. The order sets out guiding principles governing commercial transactions involving Venezuelan oil, including measures designed to protect oil-related cash flows from creditor embargoes. While the immediate focus is on safeguarding oil revenues and facilitating the renewal of investment by oil companies, the order also appears designed to limit litigation risks during a potential debt restructuring process. |
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01-26-26 spal
K92 - 2026 production: 190,000 oz gold, 12.7 million lbs copper, 361,000 oz silver (equivalent to 225,000 oz AuEq at base metal prices).
Feasible Share Price if Gold Rises from $5,000 to $6,000/oz in 12–15 MonthsA +20% gold rise to $6,000/oz is plausible in a supercycle (e.g., per Bank of America's forecast), driven by supply shortages and demand.
This would boost 2026 EPS by 23% to ~$3.02 (via ~1.1x leverage on the gold portion). Current valuation (8.3x forward P/E) could expand 20–30% to 10–12x in a bull market, reflecting improved sentiment and growth visibility.
Conservative (constant P/E 8–9x): Share price ~$25–$27 (25–35% upside from ~$20), pure EPS-driven.
Moderate (P/E to 10x): Share price ~$30 (50% upside), with modest re-rating.
Optimistic (P/E to 12x, full bull): Share price ~$36 (80% upside), if K92 hits run-rate production and attracts premium multiples (e.g., IDP NPV5% extrapolates to ~$3–$4 billion at $6,000, trading at 0.7–1.0x NPV).
A feasible target is $28–$32, assuming gradual ramp (gold averaging ~$5,500), no disruptions, and market favoring growers (historical rallies saw similar miners gain 50–100%).
This implies 40–60% upside from current levels, with torque from expansions.
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01-25-26 spal
As of 2Q 2025 the US median house price was $410,800. If we divide this by $100, the silver price as of now, it will be 4,108 ounces of silver for one average house in the US. In 1980 when silver prices were trading very high, close to $36, one average house was worth $64,000. So, dividing $64,000 by $36 gives us almost 1,778, which means we needed much less (between 2 and 3 times less) silver to buy a house, meaning that silver is in fact inexpensive compared to 1980.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4862460-amerigo-resources-electro-copper-boosts-value-for-the-shareholders#scroll_comments |
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01-25-26 savo
carib.. everytime I meet a bitcoiner I ask what is his average price...
and it is generally not far from today's level... most people that bought at 10k.. bought also at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60...100.. 110... thinking it was going to 1MM as Saylor said.
Whoever bought at 40.. kept on buying... at 50.. kept on... at 80...kept on
the famous whales are the originals... those made a killing.. but most people long today are hardly making any money and will robably lose it all... unless they take their loses and buy to gold and silver... in which case they will make it up for the lost time.
when that happens we will have another leg up on precious metals. |
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01-25-26 savo
‘Repatriate the gold’: German economists advise withdrawal from US vaults
Shift in relations and unpredictability of Donald Trump make it ‘risky to store so much gold in the US’, say experts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/24/repatriate-the-gold-german-economists-advise-withdrawal-from-us-vaults |
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01-25-26 carib
Savo: I guess you just gave the US good reasons not do that..
;-)
(But I would be happy to see the bitcoin bubble bust) |
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01-25-26 savo
leo... central banks should start by eliminating the 2% target and aim at 0% inflation...
Greenspan used to say that at 400 hundred he knew monetary policy was to loose and at 300 too tight... he managed to keep gold in that range during most of his tenure.
When asked at congress if the US should return to a gold standard he answered we are in a sort of one.
The came Bernanke, Wall Street took over and the rest of the Central banks followed through ... with the results that we all know.
My theory is that the world will return to some form of gold standard.
Gold and silver are the only monetary metals given to us by the Universe... may be nickel.. but that is it.
Once that happens the US will not be able to export dollars or mortgage back securities ... and will not be able to fund its military might superiority any more.
There was a temporary hope about BTC...that is over I think, |
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01-25-26 spal
| PT - you're back and clearly have not lot it. I like Hunt brothers comparison and data point. |
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01-25-26 leopardo
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. —
Alan Greenspan |
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01-25-26 leopardo
The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy. —Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System
(1979-1987) |
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01-25-26 carib
| Merlino: yes, there is demand for UST bonds paying real yields, but in the last year holding Gold and Silver was much more profitable. |
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01-25-26 Merlino
and central banks offloading dollars.
......................................
However, somebody is buying these same usd Treasuries with usd cash...and it does not look to be the FED ....and prices/rates do not look to be out of whack (high real rates) with inflation
There is still good demand for usd T papelitos, if I understand it |
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01-25-26 carib
Savo: I agree on both counts, concerning gold/silver temporary trend, and central banks offloading dollars.
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01-25-26 panasonic
My 2 cents, demand for compute, memory, energy, etc. Is not inflated, the only thing inflated is expected margins, big time.
Food, health, shelter and entertainment won't be an issue, distruption is inevitable.
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01-25-26 savo
pt.. the 1:3 intended to be a joke...but who knows?
i imagine all what you say is right... I am not an industrialist and have no clue how silver is used on anything tech.
I am a mere bond trader that spotted accidentally a trend in precious metals and jumped on to it. We will see how that trade ends. So far so good.. but markets are moody and can reverse.
My decision to invest in precious metals, and i informed this board at the time, was not related to the use of the metals but to a political perception.
The US decided to turn against the same people and countries that were financing with their savings the US budget deficit, the US consumer voracity and the US military.
They weaponized the dollar, bank deposits, US treasuries, tariffs and finally the army itself and threatened to invade a NATO country.
The natural response is to move away from the US$, the US banking sector, US treasuries, buy precious metals, gold miners, the swiss frank and get closer to China.
That implies a change in the existing monetary system of unknown to me consequences.
The general idea was that BTC was going to be the refuge... but btc is proving to be a scam where those entering early made the fortune and those entering after them and buying all the way to 110, like Michel Saylor, are making no money and probably will lose it all. |
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01-25-26 Merlino
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01-25-26 carib
PS: globalisation and technology allowed prolonged very low inflation in hard currencies. the return to "insularity" will most likely generate less efficiency and higher prices. IA is probably going to increase concentration of wealth and social instability.
Difficult to advise children on the safest places to thrive.
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01-25-26 patient-trader
silver 100...gold silver ratio at 50...
look at the ratio historically
could go to 1:3
...
Savo, when was the gold/silver ratio 3? During Inca times?
The Hunt brothers brought the ratio to around 20. Anyway, Silver is an industrial material with critical civilian and military use. At current levels, producers of silver and traders probably go bust left and right from margin calls and electronics manufacturers cannot calculate their output prices anymore. This Silver rally coincides with RAM prices going through the roof. Its all AI driven, where analysts project that AI hyperscalers will cover the planet with datacenters.
Obviously, one cannot have it all, flying AI companies, flying Silver, flying RAM etc. Something must give.
Either AI hyperscalers scale down plans or commodity prices come down to make electronics hardware profitable again.
Anyway, the Hunt brother Silver peak of 50 USD corresponds to roughly 150 USD. |
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01-25-26 carib
Analysts describe the bigger story as rerouting, not stopping. Vortexa’s Claire Jungman said roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s seaborne crude exports have moved into Caribbean destinations since the crackdown began, including the Bahamas, Curaçao, and St Lucia, not because those islands are the end market, but because they offer storage, flexibility, and time. In this setup, the Caribbean functions as a staging area where cargoes can wait for downstream buyers, resale opportunities, or clearer signals on sanctions enforcement and license terms.
That reality is sharpening the spotlight on Curaçao. A separate episode has sparked debate after a tanker linked to Venezuelan crude discharged in Curaçao despite sanctions-related concerns and maritime red flags, raising questions about scrutiny standards, port responsibility, and how wider Kingdom obligations intersect with Curaçao’s autonomous decision-making.
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01-25-26 carib
Like the Rothschild did.. it is wise to have different branches of the family in different jurisdictions, and some assets in each..
That is my take especially in this dangerous times |
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01-25-26 spal
local prices start going up as a faster pace
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This is happening ... not just yet headlines again ... but we know how slipperly the CPI and Core CPI measures and measuring process is. But supermarkets do now lie. |
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01-25-26 spal
Savo - on the contrary I do wish and hope for both of our sake that we continue to have as active a discussion on these issues as possible. There might be times when my responses are more urgent and insistent and these are when I am answering quickly from the middle of a US trading day, but like you I do confront and consider these issues daily.
Concerning "insulatation" that is probably core to all of our concerns. BTW I one of my sons is now established with a house and soon to have an English wife and lives in Chesham. So I do have things at stake there also.
Carib has spoken of his US based daughter and I have 2 other adult children and there partners here and so these issues are much greater than merely for my generation.
Obviously the transmission mechanisms of changes in the US must in their ways effect all colores.
All good reasons to keep this debate alive.
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