12-13-25 panasonic
Savo, Veni chavismo syphoned billions that ended in Salamanca and Miami, not Russia nor China.
Estan hasta las coronillas de los "bolichicos". |
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12-13-25 victor
spal, isnt it more like a dt thing?
but once dt retires in 3 years? i doubt it.
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12-13-25 savo
pana... i do not think russia and china will give up veni easily.. irrespective of what the BBC says...... they have no reason too...
... do not forget the news of this week...the fed has gone from QT to QE in 24 hours... outright monetization of the fiscal deficit... into rising inflation... they need to avoid a housing meltdown, a stock market meltdown and help the government finance its 37trn debt.
Meanwhile gold and solver making new highs.
Ukraine? They do not need to trade it for veni... they can have both..
North Korea sounds like tropical communism... old story.
China might perfectly well have a nuclear submarine in the Caribeean... they will not tell the BBC.
Alternatively, Trump bombs Miraflores... Maduro goes... China and Russia too... But until that happens... the odds are the opposite is happening.
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12-13-25 spal
right, falange.
it never went away in spain.
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Yes and do you get the feeling that a right falange has shown up un the US? |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Savo, impeding his exit is not support him, Maduro wants to leave and enjoy his billions.
China and Russia wanted a strong dictator to install a North Korea in our region, bus driver is not the man for the job.
The move the free the region from their presence is the right one. |
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12-13-25 savo
pana..FWIW.. i think that BBC article is wrong...
Russia and China are supporting Maduro... proof.. Maduro is still there... 8 years after... having defeated Trump 1.0, Biden, and IMHO on his way to defeat Trump 2.0 unless Trump starts bombing veni...
China and Russia do not need to support Maduro openly and in the press... so one can not know whether they are or are not.
But given Maduro remains in Miraflores... the best guess I think... is they are. |
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12-13-25 savo
| In precious metals, silver has stolen the spotlight once again as prices continued to surge to new highs. Silver prices have risen by over 8% so far in December, rallying to $64/oz before a late-week reversal. Moreover, silver has significantly outperformed gold, which itself has risen back towards ~$4,300/oz. Amid this outperformance, the gold to silver ratio has plummeted below 70, the lowest since 2021 (Figure 1lilitserovadG). The jump in silver, in part driven by further ETF inflows (Figure 2ilservognhSdFET) which continue to stress low liquid silver inventory outside of the US, has far outpaced our forecasts. While we think there is a risk that silver is overheating and valuations look quite rich at the moment, as long as uncertainty around Section 232 critical minerals lingers, silver, platinum and palladium all continue to remain vulnerable to further bouts of volatile upside in prices, given the ongoing strain on liquidity amid the reluctance to ship metal back from the US ahead of any clarity on tariffs. |
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12-13-25 victor
spal, the people? i meant the leaders, in this case of the us armed forces.
technically, you are supposed to be doing a job and that's it. but in reality, your views come into play.
patton was v far on the right, wanted to invade the ussr.
nowadays, those who dislike dt really want him to fail in vz, etc.
right, falange.
it never went away in spain. |
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12-13-25 spal
the usa is so polarized nowadays that you have to take this political angle into account, in my op.
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If by polarized you mean split in two I don't actually think so. The people are less franchised by the process itself. I think bringing back the term "falange" is probably appropriate given the ideologically charged, cult like behavior of the Trumpistas. I am still agreeing with you that political symbology is a current driver. |
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12-13-25 victor
pana, right
i am guessing that holsey, the navy admiral who was forced to retire, is one of the reasons land strikes have not yet occurred.
holsey is black and a democrat, apparently.. a guy more than willing to make dt look like a fool.
democrat politicos are defending him, saying that they are concerned now that he's out.
the new guy, caine, is an air force general (good choice).. white and, i am guessing, a republican.. someone who wants dt to succeed in vz.
the usa is so polarized nowadays that you have to take this political angle into account, in my op. |
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12-13-25 panasonic
As Trump targets Venezuela, its allies Russia and China show little signs of support
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c075mr3190mo
Chinese goods home! |
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12-13-25 panasonic
Vic, transition from "non-intervention" policy back to direct intervention won't be easy at all.
One of the things I think we colores agree is that sanctions don't work, me and 90% of venezolanos want a more active way.
Me? I want Chinese out of the region and never come back, I want to live in South Korea, not north. |
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12-13-25 victor
Se retira el comandante a cargo de las operaciones militares de EE.UU. en el Caribe tras enfrentamientos con Hegseth
Hegseth consideraba que Holsey no estaba actuando con la suficiente agresividad para combatir a los narcotraficantes en la zona de operaciones del Comando Sur, según informó CNN, mientras que los oficiales del Comando Sur estaban preocupados por la legalidad de los ataques.
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12-13-25 pillz
Donald Trump escalates his anti-drug offensive in the Caribbean and announces "ground attacks" in Venezuela
Fri Dec 12 23:21:19 2025 EDT
Donald Trump scales up anti-drug offensive in the Caribbean, announces "ground attacks" in Venezuela
The US president stated from the Oval Office that the military strategy is aimed at ending the flow of drugs into the United States.
U.S. prepares to seize more oil tankers near Venezuela as it puts more pressure on Maduro
This was the secret operation of the Grey Bulls, the US rescue group that took María Corina Machado out of Venezuela.
President Donald Trump moved up a notch in his anti-narcotics strategy in the Caribbean, targeting Venezuela directly through ground actions under the argument of ending drug trafficking organizations shipping drugs to the United States.
From the White House, the Republican leader clarified that this new stage would be due to the success of the naval campaign he deployed in this part of the continent, which has led to at least 23 alleged "narco-boats" being destroyed and approximately 87 deaths.
Trump would start military actions over Venezuela
"This is not just about attacks on land in Venezuela. It's about attacking horrible people who bring drugs and kill our people," the US president said from the presidential office, claiming that this stage of his anti-drug strategy would guarantee a hard blow to drug trafficking. "Now we're starting on the ground, which is much easier. That's going to start happening," he added.
According to Trump, this "war on drugs" respond to the number of deaths per year related to the consumption of narcotics such as fentanyl and cocaine, which would have devastated thousands of families in the country. "At least 300,000 people," he said.
This announcement comes at a time of high volatility, where the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned several allies of the Chavista spectrum with the blocking of assets and the prohibition to operate in the country.
The MAGA government claims that the sea raids would have saved some 25,000 Americans by reducing the entry of these narcotics.
Trump gives ultimatum to Maduro
Donald Trump made clear his position on the regime of Nicolás Maduro, whom he describes as a usurper and accuses him of leading the Cartel of the Suns, currently designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States.
"His days are numbered", said the Republican through an interview with Político, after being asked how far he would be willing to go to overthrow Chavismo in Venezuela.
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12-13-25 pillz
| PETROLEOS DE VEN 11-21 9% REGS ,,, any idea if i want to sell this blond , price i must ask , thank you ... |
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12-13-25 victor
Trump dice que los ataques por tierra en Venezuela "van a empezar a suceder"
El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, dijo este viernes que los ataques por tierra en Venezuela “van a empezar a suceder” y que “no vamos a permitir que destruyan a nuestra juventud”.
“Ahora estamos empezando por tierra, y por tierra es mucho más fácil, y eso va a empezar a suceder”, dijo el presidente. “No vamos a permitir que esa gente destruya a nuestra juventud, destruya a nuestras familias”, agregó.
CNN se ha comunicado con la Casa Blanca para obtener una aclaración sobre lo que quiso decir el presidente.
Al ser preguntado si hay algo que el país pueda hacer para prevenir posibles ataques terrestres, Trump respondió que no quería “decir eso”.
“No quiero decir eso, pero no se trata solo de ataques terrestres contra Venezuela, se trata de ataques terrestres contra personas horribles que están introduciendo drogas y matando a nuestra gente”, agregó el presidente.
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. veni is not a communist dictatorship... may be a dictatorship... but certainly not communist... nicaragua idem... which proves that tropical communism is dead... Cuba is and old story... a US fuck up 60 years ago whcih could have been sorted out many times had it not been for the parents of the current cuban renegades...
argentina was not a dictatorship but was on the way to becoming one with the colonization of the courts... the original plan was nestor.. cfk.. .. nestor... cfk... and so on... nestor died so cfk went for reelection which was the mistake... because she could not then get re-elected.. Rubio wanted to put sanctions on CFK... had they done that.. CFK might still be there... things are complex... old labels do not apply. |
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12-12-25 carib
Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia had "leftist" governments for a while, but never were "communist" dictatorships.
Better move back to bond prices, where discussions can be more useful. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: you just confirmed we disagree.
;-)
I agree with Vargas Llosa on the matter. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. i think tropical communism, if by that you refer to nicaragua, cuba and veni, would not exist without US sanctions...
argie, ecuador, bolivia were in that group too... Had the US put personal sanctions on them. argie would still have CFK, Ecuador would still have Correa and Bolivia would still have Evo...
The worst possible strategy to get rid of tropical comunism is to sanction the country and its leaders.
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12-12-25 carib
| Savo, my view is equally simple, concerning lat-am: tropical communism is a disease, and the sooner it's eradicated, the better. But, as I said, your political views and mine are irrelevant, because we have 0 influence... except on buying or selling decisions. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. your political views are very difficult to track.. lately you seem to be all over the place...including assassination.
Mine is very simple... yankees get the fuck out of Latam.. you are not welcome. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: yet again.. we hold opposite political views, and there is little point in repeating them over and over, because neither of us will change such opinions.
The matters actually worth discussing, because we can actually do something about it.. is: selling or buying? Seeking a summary judgement.. or waiting?
Obviously, is one EXPECTS (rather than hopes for) a positive solution soon.. he should probably still buy at current levels.. whilst if one EXPECTS no solution any time soon.. this is probably a good time to sell and forget the issue.
The second practical issue is.. if a restructuring will happen within a couple of years.. is it not better to be in the group of creditors with a summary executable judgement? |
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
i want a restructuring too and that would be very easy to get if the US lifts all sanctions... and returns the southern command to base.
It can be done in 30 seconds... one order.. and one select all and delete. No casualties... no more misery to the people of venezuela... no more exiles.
You seem to believe that Maduro is a variable... he isn't.. he is the constant... the rest is variable...Trump is variable...he will be gone in three years...and his cohort will move into some other occupation. Maduro instead will have 3 more years in Miraflores.
You can have Maduro and a restructuring or Maduro and not a restructuring. But you can not not have Maduro. He is the Sphinx of Giza... hoping that this time will be different and yes.. this time he will go is wasting hope.... in my opinion.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: as you know, our views differ radically, but are irrelevant, because neither of us calls the shots. The fact that US "strategy" on Veny has been either non-existant or ineffective.. is self evident, but of course the effectiveness or lack thereof depends on the goal sought.
My own portfolio goal would be to get a fair restructuring of PDVsa bonds with a radiant future of the debtor, leading to full recovery. The political ideal goal would be the fall of Chavismo, Castrismo and similar obnoxious regimes in Latin America.
In practice, the only thing we can decide is selling, buying more or just waiting.. and in the meanime going to federal court.. or not yet.
I think Trump's goal is.. Trump and family. |
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12-12-25 savo
meanwhile BTC back below 90K... every time BTC approaches Salylor's liquidation lever some "invisible hand" pushes it up..
Rumor is the Trump's sons are heavily invested in BTC.
One of them was recently in Gibraltar, which is a cryto hub in europe.
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
a good negotiator considers all possible outcomes and values the impact of each of them on the innocent bystander... based on the probabilities chooses a course of action.
bad negotiators consider success as the only possible outcome and disregard the possibility the policy does not work.
That mistake has costed us 8 years of coupons... veni 60% of its gdp and 7 million exiles. Of course wealthy venezuelans living luxuriously in Madrid, NYC, Geneva, London and Miami do not care about their fellow nationals trapped in veni.
I do not see anything in the actual strategy that is any better than the old strategy other than higher frequency... for the simple reason that all this air and sea blockades does not affect the regime... they only affect the people in venezuela who will have less goods available and thus more inflation... they are not going to raise against the government because they know they will be picked up at night at home and sent to the helicoide.
We are exactly exactly in the same place we were in Jan 2019..including the excitement... and bond prices are... not surprisingly... at the same level..also including the excitement.
The only real option that I see that would end this nonsense in 24 hours is to accept Maduro's offer, three years without sanctions and then he leaves.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: sanctioned did cripple Veny oil exports, to a point, but closing air and sea space would be quite different.
Not enough for an automatic implosion, but a step in a long walk.
Obviously a faster knock out would be better. |
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12-12-25 carib
The United States has announced new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels it says help move Venezuelan oil, putting more pressure on a major prop of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime a day after it seized a sanctioned tanker likely carrying millions of dollars’ worth of oil off the country’s coast.
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12-12-25 spal
Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew points out that Venezuela competes with also-sanctioned barrels from Russia and Iran.
"Should Venezuelan crude vanish from the market, the impact would be to the sanctioned oil trade ... the impact to the non-sanctioned, legal oil market could be fairly small, as it would be sanctioned cargoes that would fill the gap," he said via email. |
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12-12-25 savo
pt.. immense riches await the Cuban renegades if Maduro leaves.
Anybody wanting to do business in Veni will have to "partner" with them.
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12-12-25 patient-trader
I guess for Rubio and friends Veni is not the main issue. The main issue is Cuba. But you can only have a regime-change in Cuba if you kill their financing sources in Veni.
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