02-09-26 leopardo
| If the Us administration will punish Veny bondholders or not remains to be seen.......... |
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02-08-26 carib
| The end of the rule of law, sadly, has systemic consequences, mostly unintended but not less real, IMHO. |
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02-08-26 spal
Venezuela’s situation today is extraordinary due to direct U.S. intervention:
The U.S. has captured Venezuela’s oil leadership and is supervising oil revenues, boosting export flows while managing proceeds for use by the Venezuelan population.
Citgo protection licenses continue to shelter key assets from private creditors, delaying creditor enforcement actions.
The U.S. is considering general licenses that could allow U.S. companies to operate in Venezuela and boost production — potentially increasing future revenue streams.
These interventions create policy dependence: a sovereign restructuring will likely be shaped by U.S. strategic objectives, not just creditor rights.
This differs from most precedents in that the U.S. — a major geopolitical and financial power — is effectively a stakeholder in the restructuring outcome.
This tends to favor political settlement mechanisms over pure market solutions. |
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02-08-26 spal
| But maybe you wake up every morning and say today I feel like "an Elliott" ... who knows ... maybe he got lucky ... is luck a strategy? |
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02-08-26 spal
| That does not mean a total repudiation of claims — it means reconciliation of creditors’ interests with broader stability goals over time ... |
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02-08-26 spal
A creditor-friendly legal outcome is incompatible with the imperative to use oil revenues for stability, migration reduction, and reconstruction.
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Between the desire
And the spasm
Between the potency
And the existence
Between the essence
And the descent
Falls the Shadow
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02-08-26 spal
What Is the Most Likely Outcome?
The likeliest restructuring path for Venezuela is a political-economic restructuring that involves:
* Significant principal haircuts (e.g., 50% or more) to align debt with sustainable revenue projections, especially oil exports.
* Extended maturities (20+ years) and relatively low coupons, possibly supplemented by contingent instruments tied to oil output or GDP.
* Structured proceeds management via politically supervised revenue funds to satisfy reconstruction and social needs rather than direct debt payments first.
* Prioritized treatment for political allies and major bilateral partners — and less favorable terms for “vulture” or distressed fund holders.
Why?
Because:
The situation is highly politicized by U.S. geopolitical strategy.
IMF participation remains uncertain but politically influenced.
Debt levels are unsustainable without restructuring.
A creditor-friendly legal outcome is incompatible with the imperative to use oil revenues for stability, migration reduction, and reconstruction. |
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02-08-26 spal
If Republicans lose mid terms, Rubio will do a deep cleaning in Veni, won't delay wiping out what's left of chavismo further.
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Panas ... you are inspired with your commentary lately. Bravo. |
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02-08-26 spal
I'm more worried abt. future of society in general.
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Panas - good point. I share your concerns. |
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02-08-26 carib
Savo: SPAL already answered.
Savonarola was also italian.. end did not end up well.
It' important to remain flexible, in thinking, in my opinion.
Values do not change, but circumstances do.
I do agree that there is a risk that Trump f**ks veny creditors.
I hope he leaves the matter to Rubio. |
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02-08-26 panasonic
Merlino,Spal...both views make sense.
I'm trying to stay realistic, DTs administration is abt. scoring medals to win mid-terms, so right now focus will stay on Iran and Cuba, and maybe Ukraine.
Priority of Veni has lowered considerably.
If Republicans lose mid terms, Rubio will do a deep cleaning in Veni, won't delay wiping out what's left of chavismo further.
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02-08-26 savo
it is not going to end pretty...
it already not ended pretty. |
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02-08-26 savo
if you take last business day 2019...
dow 28,500
gold 1,500
took 19 ounces of gold...in 2019 to buy one dow
today... 10 ounces...
loss to dow holders... almost 50% in real money |
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02-08-26 panasonic
PT, personally I'm more worried abt. future of society in general.
Markets are at our choice, long, short or simply stay out, |
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02-08-26 savo
pt.. for whatever is worth... down last business day 1999 11,500.. ounce of gold ....290...
it took 40 ounces of gold to buy one Dow.
today...dow...50,100... ounce of gold physical 4,966
it takes 10 ounces of gold to buy one dow.
Loss to dow holders...75% in real money |
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02-08-26 Merlino
Conncerning creditors watch out for a "they were big boys, they took there chances and I am sorry it did not work out for them". Trump took his creditors into bankruptcy 4 or 5 times ... one more is no problem for him.
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A possibility. However why would he do this? US Financial institutions and hedge funds are most likely invested in these papers, including US individual investors and perhaps Trump/Besset friends and associates. An action like this will most likely be challenged in US courts both during and after Trump´s mandate an in the future. It would be to look for trouble for the probable benefit of no one as in this case Veni/Pdvsa will continue to be regarded as rogue debtors no deserving big investments |
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02-08-26 patient-trader
All asset classes total market capitalisation
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
Most crazy - The moms and pops got insanely rich. The capitalisation of the big SP500 ETFs has four-folded since 2020. E.g. the iShares S&P 500 ETF has now almost 800bn market cap.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/ishares-core-sp-500-etf/marketcap/
Is there any scenario how this can end pretty? |
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02-08-26 spal
| Say holding $400+ by end of March. |
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02-08-26 spal
CRS - main driver specialized alloys for Aerospace and Defense
2026 (Fiscal Year)
Analyst models and company guidance imply:
Operating income growth ~26–33% year-over-year in 2026.
With rising margins and demand, EPS growth for 2026 is reasonably projected 25–35% compared with FY2025, assuming leverage and mix continue to improve (operating leverage + higher pricing).
Consensus price target forecasts imply expectations of EPS expansion consistent with a robust growth story.
3-Year / 5-Year EPS Growth
Longer term estimates are not published as formal consensus, but with aerospace & defense content increasing and Carpenter adding capacity:
3-Year CAGR (2025–28): ~20–25% EPS growth appears plausible based on operating income guidance and margin expansion assumptions.
5-Year (2025–30): Assuming 15–20% annual EPS growth from sustained aerospace demand, mix improvements, and potential new markets (defense, medical, power generation), a conservative 15%+ CAGR is achievable.
This aligns with recent technical ratings showing exceptionally strong EPS momentum
EPS Outlook
2026: ~+25–35% growth
3-year CAGR: ~20–25%
5-year: ~15%+ given aerospace demand and mix gains
Price Targets
March 31, 2026: $360–$380
June 30, 2026: $380–$420
I think it will run a little hotter ... we'll see. |
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02-08-26 spal
Savo - the funniest thing here among us good friends is for me and Carib to be regarded as "you two" - now I am not keeping score but Carib and I are often on the other side of the table, not that I mind as it keeps me sharp (I think).
Concerning good and evil ... that's neither of us, certainly not Carib as I am convinced that Machiavelli (another Italian) must run in his bloodline somewhere. If anything I see you more often in that role. But let's leave this kind of thing aside.
There was no abyss for the Americans (my gang) ... I think the overall flow of refugees started to become a bigger deal, but most of the routes up here were closed (importantly Mulino got the memo). There is a concern that future Democrat administrations would reverse all this ... so as far as getting Vene sorted in the meantime this can be one of the motives.
Also the relevant refineries in the US replaced the demand for Vene crude with Canadian oil sands (this is a well established fact).
Concerning a ramp up - like I said Vene goes to 1.3 B boed easily (but stops there).
Conncerning creditors watch out for a "they were big boys, they took there chances and I am sorry it did not work out for them". Trump took his creditors into bankruptcy 4 or 5 times ... one more is no problem for him.
Concerning big oil ... Chevron is there and will continue ... the rest resent how they were treated, have written off the country and will have to see an election, new rules and new laws and they will still be reluctant.
We differ on how the extraction went ... not really important.
We certainly differ on Maria Corina Machado. I have no clue where you are coming from there.
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02-08-26 savo
the next step is to ramp up veni's oil production... that will take time ...and there is no time to lose calling an election... and hoping that the new guys leaded by a mentally unstable woman will do the right things and move fast with a new hydrocarbon law.. etc...
Better work with the devil you know that already knows how the government works.
But oil companies can't sign long term contracts unless they know the government signing the contracts is a government that will last. Nobody sings long term contracts with interim governments.
So it has to be Delcy 2031... and most probably Delcy 2037... and the US will make sure that is the case. |
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02-08-26 savo
spal...This was shock therapy. It said to any major regime figure we can come and get you and anyone associated with you at any point.
FWIW.. i do not have such an epic view of what actually happened...
The situation was untenable... veni was falling into an abyss.... the US was spending a mountain of money chasing tankers and narco boats... US refiners needed veni's heavy oil... something had to give...
Delcy, Jorge, Diosdado and Padrino... agreed to deliver Maduro, deactivated his security... and the US came and picked him up. May be even Maduro agreed to be delivered.
That is all that happened..
And the proof that is all that happened is the smoothness of the transition.
I think Carib and you have some sort mental blockade (no offense meant) and can't accept the the US "does" negotiate with terrorist... with narcos...with the Iranians... with the Russians... and with whoever they need to negotiate to get what they want including the veni regime.
For reasons I do not understant.. and again no offense meant... you two need to believe that the world is this place where there are the good and there are the bad... the democracies and the autocracies... that the US is this force of good fighting forces of evil. The fact is that they are all evils of different kinds protecting the interests of their own elites... military.. financial.. industrial ... political... whatever.
After 8 years of nonsense... the moment had come for the US to U-turn in veni... and the regime was delighted to facilitate that U-turn... and so Maduro went.
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