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12-19-25 savo
in my humble opinion a rally based on Trump bombing Caracas Shopping Malls, ports, hospitals and electricity generation companies has no legs.
I want a rally based on fundamentals... no headlines.
Fundamentals mean the military out of the picture and a real diplomatic negotiation not a fictitious one like the one under Biden and the treacherous Norwegians. |
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12-19-25 savo
(Bloomberg) --
Los tenedores de deuda venezolana empiezan a preguntarse si el rally que llevó los bonos a su nivel más alto en años ha ido demasiado lejos.
La deuda soberana del país se ha más que duplicado este año en medio de la creciente presión de la administración de Donald Trump sobre el régimen del presidente Nicolás Maduro. Gran parte de las ganancias se han producido desde agosto, cuando Trump envió tropas estadounidenses al Caribe para ejecutar ataques letales contra presuntas embarcaciones vinculadas al narcotráfico. En la última semana elevó la tensión al incautar un petrolero, ordenar un bloqueo del país y designar al gobierno como una organización terrorista extranjera.
Los inversionistas han estado impulsando al alza los bonos durante meses apostando a que Maduro finalmente cedería ante la presión, allanando el camino para un cambio de régimen tras 26 años de gobierno socialista. Pero cuanto más se prolonga el enfrentamiento, más empiezan a temer que Maduro se aferre al poder y que el repunte de la deuda haya ido demasiado lejos.
“Es solo una operación alimentada por el impulso”, dijo Carlos de Sousa, gestor de portafolio en Vontobel Asset Management en Zúrich. “La incautación de petroleros apunta a presión económica, que no funcionó durante el primer mandato de Trump, así que no veo por qué valdría la pena intentarlo de nuevo”.
No es la primera vez que los inversionistas apuestan por un cambio de régimen en la nación sudamericana. En 2019, los bonos también repuntaron cuando la oposición ganó impulso y el entonces presidente de la Asamblea Nacional Juan Guaidó fue reconocido por más de 50 gobiernos en el mundo como líder del país y se realizaron protestas masivas. Trump impuso duras sanciones a Maduro y sus aliados en ese momento, buscando drenar sus ingresos petroleros y debilitar su control del poder.
Finalmente, la ofensiva fracasó, dando paso a una fuerte represión a la disidencia. Estados Unidos impuso restricciones a la negociación de los bonos, dejando la deuda en el limbo.
El gobierno de Biden levantó las sanciones a la negociación en 2023, ampliando con ello la base de inversionistas y llevando a JPMorgan Chase & Co. a reincorporar la deuda a sus índices. Esto ya había impulsado los precios a cerca de 20 centavos por dólar, desde alrededor de 10 centavos donde habían permanecido en años recientes.
El renovado repunte de este año —101%, según datos de JPMorgan— también los ha vuelto más vulnerables a una corrección.
“El mercado está operando exclusivamente por titulares”, dijo David Austerweil, subgerente de portafolio en Van Eck Global, quien redujo recientemente su posición sobreponderada en la deuda ante el aumento de precios. “Es una rentabilidad enorme en un período muy corto”.
Los bonos soberanos cotizan ahora en torno a 28 centavos por dólar en promedio, lo que sugiere una probabilidad implícita de cambio de régimen de hasta un 50%, según el analista de Barclays Jason Keene. Es un giro abrupto para los US$60.000 millones en bonos en default de Venezuela y su petrolera estatal PDVSA, que hace apenas dos años se transaban por centavos.
EMFI Securities también expresó dudas esta semana sobre un cambio de régimen, afirmando que hay un 70% de probabilidad de que el gobierno de Venezuela resista la presión estadounidense. Recomendaron a los clientes vender los bonos, ya que el reciente salto de precios introdujo un “espacio significativo para pérdidas”.
“El reciente rally se ha alimentado de expectativas de cambio de régimen y una reestructuración como resultado”, dijo Graham Stock, analista sénior en BlueBay en Londres. “Los niveles actuales ciertamente plantean más riesgo en ambos sentidos si Maduro permanece o si EE.UU. se retira”.
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12-19-25 savo
so far so good...
Venezuela authorizes two unsanctioned loaded oil supertankers to depart, sources say
By Chen Aizhu and Marianna Parraga
December 18, 20256:08 PM GMT-3Updated 3 hours ago
Dec 18 (Reuters) - Venezuela on Thursday authorized two very large crude carriers (VLCC) to set sail for China, according to two sources familiar with Venezuela's oil export operations, which would be only the second and third supertankers to depart the country since the U.S. seized a ship carrying Venezuelan oil last week.
The U.S. has said it would not allow vessels under sanction to leave Venezuelan waters. The departing tankers, each carrying around 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan Merey heavy crude according to internal documents from state company PDVSA, are not on the U.S. current sanctions list.
The ships plan to navigate with their tracking transponders switched off from Venezuela's main oil port of Jose, one of the sources said. One of them had already sailed away from Jose's anchorage, where many loaded vessels have been waiting for instructions to depart since the U.S. seized the ship last week, monitoring service TankerTrackers.com said after analyzing Thursday's satellite images.
Both tankers have been carrying Venezuelan oil in recent years, according to the PDVSA internal documents.
Many vessels that provide false location data to disguise their real position while transporting Iranian, Russian or Venezuelan oil are not under U.S. sanctions. However, they are part of the so-called "shadow fleet" of ships that are typically unregulated by Western insurers and maritime service providers.
The shadow fleet is considered exposed to possible punitive measures from the U.S., shipping analysts have said. In the case of Venezuela, Washington has said it is only targeting vessels under U.S. sanctions as part of a "blockade" announced by President Donald Trump this week.
Of 75 oil tankers currently in Venezuela that are part of a "shadow fleet" of ships that typically navigate with transponders off to disguise their locations, around 38 have been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury, according to data from TankerTrackers.com, updated this week. Of those, at least 15 are loaded with crude and fuel, it added.
PDVSA on Wednesday resumed loading crude and fuel cargoes after suspending operations at terminals on Sunday due to a cyberattack, although most exports have remained on hold due to the U.S. blockage threat.
"The blockade announcement caught the company by surprise," said a PDVSA source, who declined to be identified. "We have had a lot of meetings with customers since, and most of them are willing to take their cargoes out if there is any guarantee that unsanctioned vessel will not be targeted."
Venezuela's crude exports have fallen sharply from the more than 900,000 barrels per day it shipped in November since the U.S. ship seizure.
U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N) which has continued to ship Venezuelan crude under a U.S. authorization, exported a crude cargo on Thursday bound for the U.S., LSEG data showed.
Chevron said this week its operations in Venezuela continue without disruption, without providing details. Venezuela's government called Trump's blockade a "grotesque threat" in a statement on Tuesday, saying it violates international law, free commerce and the right of free navigation. |
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12-18-25 pillz
from keytrade bank:
Dear Mr. Pill,
I can direct this question to the relevant department, but I can't offer any guarantees. In either case, we don't offer the instrument in question. Therefore, if it were possible, we would have to add it first. |
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12-18-25 savo
it is difficult to sway Putin because he is right... and Trump knows it.
Problem is the European pigs... as Putin calls them. |
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12-18-25 savo
victor...i have a theory... it always bounces from Saylor's liquidation level which at the moment is around 74K. If that level goes so will the entire crypto industry...
There are a lot of interested parties that do not want that to happen.. starting with the Trump family who is heavily invested in crypto... Donal Jr was recently in Gibraltar (crypto hub).
Add to that all the banks like JP who are very involved in crypto.
In essence ... usual US corruption. |
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12-18-25 panasonic
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12-18-25 victor
pana, i dont know re poland.
ruspan would say, and i agree with him, that putin is his own man.
not xi's man.
it might appear easy to sway putin, but in reality it's pretty difficult, as dt is finding out.
and the same would apply to xi if he were trying to sway putin in an opposite direction. |
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12-18-25 panasonic
| Would Xi support going after Poland, in your opinion? |
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12-18-25 panasonic
Vic, can put words in Ruspan posts.
What he usually says is that must be done for Russia "preservation", his opinion of course.
I'm interested in yours not his ;-) |
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12-18-25 victor
savo, bitcoin never collapses, in spite of everything.
why?
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12-18-25 victor
pana, You said Russian reply to Veni's situation would be escalation in EU
i dont remember saying that. |
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12-18-25 panasonic
Vic, hope he finds time to check colores from time to time.
Russia is not self sufficient in many areas, imo couldn't stay strong this long without support of Xi, call it puppet or name you like.
You said Russian reply to Veni's situation would be escalation in EU, so long story short, in your opinion would Xi support such adventure or not??
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12-18-25 victor
pana, i don't know what happened to ruspan.
he's probably busy after going back to work.
on vz i agree with you, a balazos.
what i dont agree is simplifying putin to a mere puppet of xi.
i dont think ruspan would agree with you either.
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12-18-25 savo
| let's hope those neocon lunatics do not do anything stupid and allow sovereign veni to continue selling its products normally. |
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12-18-25 panasonic
Vic, what happened to Ruspan?
I'm bit confused, you always said "a balazos" now that guns are loaded you don't look very convinced, why? |
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12-18-25 spal
No, the escorted vessels have not yet passed through any actively enforced blockaded area resulting in confrontation or interception.Current Status and DetailsThe vessels in question (several commercial ships carrying urea, petroleum coke, and other oil byproducts) departed from the Port of José on Venezuela's eastern Caribbean coast between the evening of December 16, 2025, and the morning of December 17, 2025, under Venezuelan Navy escort.
They are en route to Asian markets, sailing through the Caribbean Sea (international waters).
As of the latest reports on December 17, 2025 (up to evening updates), these ships have sailed out from Venezuelan ports and are proceeding without reported US interference.
Importantly, none of these specific escorted vessels are on the US list of sanctioned tankers targeted by the blockade order (announced December 16). The blockade explicitly focuses on "sanctioned oil tankers," and these carry byproducts rather than crude oil directly implicated in the primary sanctions.
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12-18-25 victor
pana, i seriously doubt that ruspan would agree with you.
too bad he's not around any longer. |
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12-18-25 spal
Abt. Poland, maybe in Putin's plan, but Xi would need to think very carefully if that is what he wants.
===
Again agree. |
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12-18-25 panasonic
victor
"pana, didnt you say that putin belongs to xi?"
What have been saying for months is the only one that can stop Putin is Xi, EU leaders should know by now. |
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12-18-25 spal
Abt. Poland, maybe in Putin's plan, but Xi would need to think very carefully if that is what he wants.
===
Again agree. |
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12-18-25 savo
that will weaken the dollar
good for precious metals... |
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12-18-25 spal
By taking out Veni's cartel USA secures that no North Korea exists in this side of the pond
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100% correct - US has just claimed the entirety of the Americas. If you notice the new visa controls that are rolling out are putting up a hard data wall around the US center. The world is being carved up as we speak.
.........
Military #1 on nuclear powers is same as #2 or #3 there is no possible winner, only those who make a colony in mars.
Yes again - we agree, so the issue turns on geographic advantages coupled with how you can mobilize robots and related to enhance or police your borders.
=====
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12-18-25 spal
pana, well.. the usa and china are fighting to be military power #1.
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No they are not.
#1 "military" power is a bit of a moot point in a nuclear age.
It is more clear that the US is retreating to the Western Hemisphere (an old term that has come around once more). Via the Vene blockade it has clearly signalled that the Americas are folded under its command.
5 eyes also.
And then Western Europe, but as a vassal under the defense arrangements and energy dependence that they just signed up for.
In what will seem like an entirely contrary stratement the US is encouraging a South/South zone to fall in place under China. This is ideal for the new plaza accord that will weaken the dollar. |
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12-18-25 victor
El presidente electo de Chile, José Antonio Kast, apoya una intervención militar en Venezuela contra Maduro: “Si alguien lo va a hacer, nos soluciona a nosotros y a todo latinoamérica un problema gigantesco. El que lo haga va a contar con nuestro apoyo”
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