02-03-26 spal
| NVO ... evicerated ... results today lowered guidance amidst pricing pressure. They have lost their way. |
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02-03-26 carib
| F35 shoots down iranian drone. |
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02-03-26 victor
María Corina Machado
Hoy, en las calles de Caracas.
Un país decidido a ser libre!
Hace 30 días esto era impensable…
Libertad para todos los presos políticos!
https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/2018718343688028632 |
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02-03-26 panasonic
| Pdvsa bonds should be trading at 45 by now!! |
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02-03-26 victor
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02-03-26 panasonic
| Vic, going to Los Roques with her next week :-))) |
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02-03-26 victor
pana, we still haven't heard from you
//
Delcy Rodríguez nombra a la hija de Diosdado Cabello como ministra de Turismo en Venezuela
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02-03-26 spal
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY
341.07 (+9.55%)
Added on intraday weakness ... this is a US command economy stock.
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02-03-26 pillz
Wall Street traders drove the S&P 500 down from near-record levels as chipmakers wiped out an earlier rally amid a rotation into more economically sensitive industries. Dip buyers paced a rebound in gold and silver after a historic selloff. The dollar halted its advance.
About 350 shares in the S&P 500 rose, but the index fell. Weighing on benchmarks was a drawdown in companies in the data-services space, following the release of an automation tool for the legal profession by artificial-intelligence firm Anthropic. Gartner Inc. lost around a quarter of its value, while Factset Research Systems Inc., S&P Global Inc. and Accenture Plc were all hit.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.1%. The Russell 2000 index of smaller firms added 0.8%. Walmart Inc. topped $1 trillion. A strong outlook from Palantir Technologies Inc. drove the shares up 5.9%. Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s upcoming results will provide an update on its push to compete with Nvidia Corp. in AI.
The dollar fell after notching its biggest back-to-back advance since April. Treasury yields barely budged, with investors parsing the latest remarks from central bank speakers. |
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02-03-26 panasonic
Pilly, and sell Veni oil to India.
Putin left out of the party... |
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02-03-26 pillz
US Plans to Issue License for Companies to Pump Venezuelan Oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/us-plans-to-issue-license-for-companies-to-pump-venezuelan-oil?srnd=homepage-americas |
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02-03-26 spal
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY
336.12(+7.96%)
===
Feels like institutional positioning - no news I can find.,
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02-03-26 spal
SpaceX's Orbital Data Center Constellation: On January 30, 2026, SpaceX filed with the FCC for up to one million solar-powered satellites to create a massive orbital AI data center network.
Axiom Space: Launched the first two dedicated orbital data center nodes to LEO on January 11, 2026, building on a 2025 ISS prototype (AxDCU-1) using Red Hat Device Edge for edge processing.
Starcloud: Backed by Nvidia and Y Combinator, this startup launched its first satellite in November 2025 with an Nvidia H100 GPU (100x more powerful than prior space GPUs) and trained the first AI model in space in December 2025.
A second satellite is slated for October 2026 with Nvidia's Blackwell platform and 100x more power generation.
They claim energy costs are 10x cheaper than on Earth, even factoring in launches, and envision massive setups like a 5GW data center with a 4 km² solar array in sun-synchronous orbit.
Google/Alphabet's Project Suncatcher: Partnering with Planet Labs, plans to launch orbital AI data centers by 2027, using solar-powered satellite clusters with TPUs and laser links.
Pilot tests expected in early 2027.
Other Players: Companies like Sophia Space, Blue Origin's Terawave, and Starcloud
===
All Grok - all in seconds - and if I bothered to research cooling I'd find that. Why people don't bother to research or answer their own questions is more the issue than a reliance on AI.
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02-03-26 spal
But how do you cool the processors in Space without air as a heat conductor?
===
For example you have your answer in Grok. Why not also do the additional research. Of course if you don't like the answer don't meantion it.
I looked - there a host of heat transfer options besides convection ... than that leads to your next question ... how efficient are they ... again the answer are there.
I find that AI avoids me having to address the half baked blurtings of many people. You might be different, you might like this as it is more natural for you PT. |
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02-03-26 spal
Spal, your Hunt brothers answer reads like Chatgpt.
===
Tell me does that make it wrong? I use AI all the time. In my case it mostly beats talking to people.
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02-03-26 leopardo
| Yes but leverage moves when price moves it's dynamic not static |
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02-03-26 pillz
| Leo 8 x leverage , not bad :-) |
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02-03-26 leopardo
If you choose higher leverage the knock out is nearer of course and viceversa.
You choose what you like depending on moment and asset. |
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02-03-26 pillz
you can choose leverage as you like ,,, I dislike the cost and Knock out
//
yes Leo but how higher the leverage how shorter the knock out ?? |
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02-03-26 leopardo
I mainly use them for Indexes and raw materials.
Not for stocks |
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02-03-26 leopardo
I also like that you can choose leverage as you like.
A lot of flexibility on that point. |
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02-03-26 leopardo
I like Unlimited Turbos (no expiry). I dislike the cost and Knock out but it's part of the game.
If you trade more liquid and less volatile assets the cost is reduced. |
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02-03-26 leopardo
I like Unlimited Turbos (no expiry). I dislike the cost and Knock out but it's part of the game.
If you trade more liquid and less volatile assets the cost is reduced. |
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02-03-26 pillz
Leo , I worked before a few years with turbos on some Belgian shares, and I don't like the knock out and the terminal time of those turbos ... and the cost of them..
in NYSE you have etf of GDXJ and GDX that make about 3 times the gold price , and JNUG that make the double of GDXJ , and if you work with shorting puts and calls you can profit from the time and the selling bonus, but of cause one must follow them daily and readjust if there are big moves , and if you sells put and calls the margin is ok |
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02-03-26 leopardo
I know pillz your strategy is better but you have to work it out and put a margin.
Turbos are pretty simple and you don't have to put margins on the table but you have KNOCK-OUT |
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02-03-26 pillz
| I have NO : Strike = Knock-Out , and I have only about 10% margin on those put and calls |
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02-03-26 patient-trader
| Spal, your Hunt brothers answer reads like Chatgpt. |
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02-03-26 pillz
ooops gold ;
4,918.85
+258.75
(+5.55%) |
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02-03-26 patient-trader
Re SpaceX and xAI Merger. So data centers will be in space, according to Musk. But how do you cool the processors in Space without air as a heat conductor?
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02-03-26 leopardo
Good Pillz still invested in Unlimited Turbo Gold
I managed to survide latest selloff
https://investimenti.bnpparibas.it/product-details/NLBNPIT322P1/ |
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02-03-26 pillz
gold:
4,886.50
+226.40
(+4.86%) |
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02-03-26 victor
PT, pretty interesting re germany.
also, pilsner maintaining its lead at almost 50% mkt share.
//
Las ventas de cerveza en Alemania se desploman hasta su mínimo histórico
Algunas de las razones de este descenso pueden ser el estilo de vida más saludable y sin alcohol que ha adoptado parte de la población
Las ventas de cerveza de las cervecerías y depósitos cerveceros alemanes se desplomaron en el 2025 hasta su mínimo histórico, con un 6% o 497,1 millones de litros menos que el año anterior, hasta alcanzar los 7.800 millones de litros, según la Oficina Federal de Estadística (Destatis). Se trata del mayor descenso en las ventas de esta bebida desde el inicio de la serie histórica, en 1993.
Por primera vez, el volumen de ventas de cerveza cayó por debajo de los 8.000 millones de litros, sin contar las cervezas sin alcohol, las bebidas de malta o la cerveza importada de países fuera de la Unión Europea (UE).
Además, se confirma la tendencia descendente a largo plazo del consumo de cerveza, ya que, en el 2025, las cervecerías y depósitos vendieron en total un 18,9% menos, es decir, 1.800 millones de litros menos que en el 2015.
Con respecto a los datos mensuales, también se observa en el 2025 el patrón estacional habitual: las ventas aumentaron notablemente en los meses de primavera y verano, mientras que volvieron a descender en otoño e invierno.
Algunas de las razones de este descenso pueden ser el estilo de vida más saludable y sin alcohol que ha adoptado parte de la población alemana, así como cambios en sus hábitos de consumo, a los que se les suma un envejecimiento general de la sociedad.
Por su parte, la Asociación Alemana de Cerveceros (DBB) señala en un comunicado que “la situación en el sector de la restauración sigue siendo preocupante, ya que muchos negocios no se han recuperado desde la pandemia”.
El director general de la DBB, Holger Eichele, también ha apuntado que este descenso en las ventas se debe a la disminución del gasto de los compradores: “Al igual que los minoristas y los restaurantes, las cervecerías están sufriendo los efectos de la enorme reticencia de los consumidores a gastar”.
De las ventas totales en el 2025, el 82,5% se destinó al consumo interno y estuvieron sujetas a impuestos, pero aún así disminuyeron en un 5,8% respecto del año anterior, hasta los 6.400 millones de litros.
El 17,5% restante (1.400 millones de litros) se vendió libre de impuestos, como exportaciones o la denominada “cerveza de empresa”, destinada al consumo personal o al de los trabajadores de la propia empresa cervecera, cuyas ventas también cayeron un 7% respecto al año anterior.
De esta cantidad, 798,5 millones de litros (un 1,3% menos) se destinaron a países miembros de la UE; 552,8 millones (un 14,2% menos) a países no miembros de la UE y 10 millones (un 7,2% menos) a los empleados de las cervecerías de forma gratuita como cerveza de empresa.
Por otro lado, las ventas de mezclas de cerveza con otras bebidas (como la limonada, los zumos y otras bebidas de sabores) también cayeron en 2025 un 5,2% en comparación con el 2024.
Por su parte, la DBB señaló que la cerveza Pilsner se mantiene como líder con casi el 50 % de la cuota de mercado, seguida de las lagers pálidas o cervezas rubias, con aproximadamente el 12%, y la cerveza sin alcohol, con un 9,5%.
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02-03-26 spal
Shipping’s regime logic:
Global trade resilience is orthogonal to CPI.
Shipping is both a scarce transport resource and a collateralized, duration-driven asset class.
Ships are hard to replicate, finite, and tied to global supply networks – this aligns with the “scarcity premium” theme under fiscal dominance. |
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02-03-26 savo
In my personal opinion people do not trust governments to provide currency.
They want to go back to the thing that had worked since 3500 BC to 1971.
Gold and silver have properties that make them unique as monetary metals. The universe has not given other options.
The issue is not why people want gold... that is very clear. The issue is why government insist in issuing currencies that people do not want.
Gold does not have to be explained... governments do.
What needs to be rationalise is the obsession of governments to create currency. |
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02-03-26 spal
PORTFOLIO LOGIC FOR A FISCAL-DOMINANCE / REPO-DRIVEN REGIME
Regime assumptions (explicit)
Persistent fiscal deficits >5% GDP
Treasury issuance skewed short
Fed unwilling to allow repo stress
Asset inflation tolerated; CPI politically managed
Liquidity migrates, not disappears
Tail risk = collateral confidence, not recession |
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02-03-26 spal
Portfolio logic for this regime
Regime assumptions
Persistent fiscal dominance
Periodic liquidity reflation
Asset protection bias
Negative real rates tolerated
Political hostility to “price inflation”, not asset inflation |
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02-03-26 spal
What gold is doing in this regime
Gold is not reacting to CPI. It’s reacting to:
Balance-sheet irreversibility
Sovereign debt monetization risk
Collateral credibility erosion
Central bank credibility decay
Gold is a confidence hedge. |
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02-03-26 pillz
gold,, now:
4,823.52
+163.42
(+3.51%)
good night |
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02-03-26 spal
Concerning the Hunts:
COMEX and the CFTC changed trading rules (Silver Rule 7) — restricting new long positions and increasing margin requirements.
These interventions made leveraged positions untenable, sparking massive selling and a crash on “Silver Thursday (March 27, 1980),” when the price fell ~50% in one day.
The Hunt brothers couldn’t meet margin calls and effectively went bankrupt.
These actions were driven by authorities and exchanges primarily to protect market integrity and prevent systemic collapse — not because “industrial users called politicians” in a literal sense. Regulators perceived the situation as posing broader financial risk |
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02-03-26 savo
pillz.. americans are incapable of understanding the perversity of its government.
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02-03-26 pillz
Make your choice :-))
///
The dramatic movement in precious metals served as a reminder that emotion remains a driver of investor decision making, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide. He notes that volatility is showing up in some surprising places at the same time that gold and silver are behaving more like “speculative trades” than safe havens.
///
“Commodity price action is more about positioning shakeout of weak or leveraged hands than a change in the fundamental story,” said Darrell Cronk at Wells Fargo. “It’s a market to watch for vulnerabilities and extremes.” |
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02-02-26 savo
pt... i do not know anything about silver as an industrial metal or how it can be manipulated.
All I know is that gold, silver and nickel have been since the Egyptians monetary metals.
Until a group of clever people convinced Nixon that the gold standard was not necessary...fed paper notes without anything behind was sufficient.
It worked well while Greenspan who was an advocate of the gold standard set rates looking at gold prices. 300 was too tight... 400 was too loose.
But then came other people that decided gold prices were not important and the dollar was not important. The market took notice and run gold prices up from 400 to 5600.
That was the prelude of a dollar crisis and a us treasuries crisis... so they did last week what they could. Sold massive amounts of futures in one go and appoint a dove who was part of Bernankes's fed and dressed him as a hawk.
The proof that the sale of futures was intentional... is that nobody that has to liquidate a big amount does it in one shot...as it goes against the same seller...Unless the objective IS to collapse a price.
In any case that is last week.. going forward things remain exactly the same because nobody that holds physical or gold silver sold a single ounce... so whoever sold will have to buy back. It is a question of time. Unles Warsh is a hawk and raises rates .. in which case the mortgage market will collapse and with it the stock market.
As I said... it is death by inflation or death by financial crisis. |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
Savo, Silver is a commodity which is crucial for certain industries. When the prices spike, the factory owners are calling their politicians. The politicians are calling the regulator and they kill the market. That's how the Hunt brothers went bankrupt.
On top you have some mines in banana countries who manipulate the markets.
That's why Silver is the most stupid metal to invest in. Every time it spikes the investors get rug-pulled. |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
Cerebras is undermining NVIDIAs monopoly
https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-is-unsatisfied-with-some-nvidia-chips-looking-alternatives-sources-say-2026-02-02/
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02-02-26 savo
Silver. Right now. Same ounce. Same metal.
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
40% spread between New York and Shanghai.
The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history.
The arbitrage is obvious. Buy COMEX at $80. Ship to Shanghai. Sell at $111. Pocket $29.
Nobody can do it.
COMEX has 108.7 million registered ounces. Paper claims against them: 1.586 billion. Fourteen owners for every ounce that exists. In the first week of January, 33.45 million ounces were physically pulled from the vault. 26% of registered inventory gone in seven days.
One-month lease rates exploded to 8%. Normal is 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver to arbitrage now exceeds the profit from the trade.
The mechanism that should close the gap is economically dead.
January 30. COMEX crashes 31% to $78. Worst day since 1980. Same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram. An all-time high. Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
January 1, 2026. Beijing reclassifies silver as a strategic material. 44 companies licensed to export. They control 60 to 70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Samsung stopped trusting the exchange entirely. Bypassed COMEX. Locked a direct two-year exclusive offtake deal with a Canadian mine for 100% of output. When the world's largest semiconductor buyer secures silver straight from the ground, the exchange doesn't have a pricing problem. It has a credibility problem.
There are two silver markets now. One trades electrons. The other trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2018219129900253321?s=48&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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02-02-26 savo
As widely expected, the Chavista-controlled National Assembly approved the hydrocarbons law offering three types of oil production structures: state-owned, JVs and the CPP (as we wrote last week). The second version of the law was altered to further reduce taxes and royalties, likely in an effort to address critiques that the law did not go far enough to attract investment. Rather than a flat royalty of 30% on oil output as under the current framework, the law stipulates "up to 30%" with no presumed floor based on the economic attributes of the project. The same discretion applies to the 50% income tax on oil. Finally, the extraction tax of 33% would be replaced with an integrated hydrocarbons rate of 15%, The law’s text lays out a number of conditions under which these rates could be lowered, but would be up to the discretion of the executive. The law also maintains the possibility for independent dispute mediation and arbitration. Ultimately, the reform opens the door for significantly more private control/involvement over oil projects, and significant tax cuts for participants.
Secretary Rubio testified in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela on Wednesday, offering more details on how the new oil arrangement would operate. An initial tranche of those proceeds arrived last week ($300mn) and a second tranche arrived this week ($200mn). Rubio explained that proceeds from oil sales that are currently being transmitted through a Qatari bank account would eventually migrate to the UST custodian account. The interim authorities would submit to the US a monthly budget of how the proceeds from oil sales would be used (after accounting for after opex/ capex costs and profit sharing) leaving the residual, including royalties and taxes, to be available to the interim authorities. The use of funds would be audited, though it is unclear how this scheme would work in practice — Secretary Rubio commented that a US entity like the US EX-IM bank could facilitate. Note that this arrangement would only apply to oil-related revenues, which represented 60% of total fiscal revenues in 2024. Non-oil fiscal (or export) and other revenues would not be subject to this UST custodial process. |
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02-02-26 spal
PT - 100% agree on Tech and Tesla.
X-AI and SpaceX which will merge with Tesla is the coming card trick from today's great master of hype.
And yes - makes Tesla look like the garbage that he rolled up for Kimball (Solar City ... previously merged into Tesla). |
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02-02-26 spal
Warsh is beyond doubt credible.
===
Here is how the selection is rationalized:
Trump does not need a crude yes-man. He needs something far more effective: a credible validator. Someone who can justify Trump-friendly outcomes in elite language. Warsh fits that role precisely. He can frame rate cuts as “credibility repair,” accommodation as “institutional reset,” and pressure as “coordination.” That is more dangerous to Fed independence than overt loyalty, because it normalizes political outcomes rather than resisting them.
Prediction matters. A Warsh-led Fed would not instantly abandon restraint. But messaging would align quickly with Trump’s narrative. Policy bias would tilt dovish earlier than data alone would warrant. Pushback would be quieter, internal, and delayed — not public, principled resistance.
Calling Warsh a “yes-man” may be imprecise. Calling him Trump-aligned, incentive-sensitive, and rhetorically accommodating is not. He is not a hack. He is something more useful to Trump: a polished enabler.
====
Bull steepener is the future |
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02-02-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
165.214.91 (+3.06%)
Fortress America position ... sleepwalking up.
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02-02-26 spal
ONDS
ONDAS INC
11.100.74 (+7.14%)
Bought the dips here ... they raised capital at c. 12.6 ... this is the "waypoint" of this one.
US military tech play thing. MOMO vehicle.
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02-02-26 Merlino
Pt I really do not know however this highly followed American specialist says dead count is about 10-12 Ukrainians for every Russian.
To judge for the apparent sophistication of Russian arm systems it could be not far from the truth...or perhaps the guy is out of his mind, a liar, on Russian payroll, etc....I do not know
https://x.com/imetatronink |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
| Merlino, if Putin made peace it would become apparent to Russians that he killed hundreds of thousands of Russians for nothing. They would get swiftly get rid of him. The best I hope for is some slowly grinding war. Now, for the first time, the Russian defense budget has been lowered because they are short on funds. BTW: This war is already running longer than the "Great Patriotic War", the Russian participation in WWII. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
"PT: I am super bearish on Tesla"
Very good point on SpaceX, that was the push for the exorbitant salary package in tsla, but with the valuation of SpaceX, tsla becomes pocket money. |
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02-02-26 Merlino
| Interesting post PT, specially end remarks...as always you do not post about war issues |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
Interesting point Spal. Apparently the new story why short term rates can fall is due to de-inflationary AI which which increases enormously productivity. Sounds like the old Greenspan story where cheap Chinese workers allegedly killed inflation.
Anyway, I think Bessent sold Warsh to Trump because he is afraid that some light-weight Trump crony as Fed governor could kill the US credibility with stupidit comments. Warsh is beyond doubt credible because he was against QE and because he has a very rich wife. So he cant be pressured by Trump.
The market reminds of 1987, Gold, stocks, interest rates ... The first shoes have already dropped. The crazy overvaluation of tech stocks will come to an end this year, obliterating ETF savers.
BTW: I am super bearish on Tesla. The fact that the stock can't move up on the super bullish news of a SpaceX merger is suspicious. As Musk owns more of SpaceX than Tesla he will probably dilute Tesla shares in a merger. |
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02-02-26 spal
To be clear I am forcasting and positioning on what is known as a "bull steepening" of the rate curve.
As a former bond trader you know what that implies. |
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02-02-26 spal
Savo - my view was this:
"Warsh will likely be more sympathetic to Trump’s calls for lower rates than Powell was"
Not sure how there is a difference. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
| Savo, makes sense, any case fear and greed will jump to the roof. |
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02-02-26 savo
i beg to differ with spal's view... for Warsh to be a real hawk.. Trump must have turned into a hawk.. and that is not possible for the simple reason that Trump wants real estate to continue going up... which requires lower rates and the stock market to continue bubbling up in nominal terms... which also requires low rates and not higher rates.
Trump does not want the stock market and the real estate market to collapse... he wants the bubble to continue... and the market knows that.. hence gold and silver were going off charts and the dollar index was tanking...
What Trump did want was for precious metals to stop the rise... so they engineer a two step approach... 1) send friendly hands.. may be the fed or the same UST to make a massive sell in silver and gold futures... ie. get the technicals right 2) appoint Warsh and spin his appointment as the new Volcker.
The damage has been caused and who knows how long it will take for the damage to be repaired.. but it will be.
Because whoever sold the futures does not have the silver or gold to deliver... so at some point he will have to buy it back... and who knows how the market will react when that happens.
And as of Warsh.. if it is true that he is a hawk and he plans to increase rates as he should... the stock market and the bond market would have collapsed and they didn't. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
Savo, one more push and Saylor "investors" will find out what unsecured preferred debt really means.
Kids back to work? Excellent joke, there is no job waiting for them. |
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02-02-26 savo
pana.. one more push and Saylor is over and out... without him as buyer of last resort there is no floor for the BTC scam, BTC treasury companies and BTC etfs ... may be Trump decides to bail the sector out with public money...
The good thing is that Gen Z will have to start looking for honest salary paying jobs. |
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