12-14-25 savo
the idea of allowing the bad guys to keep a foot in the door should be rejected, again IMHO.
earth to carib...
earth to carib...
please come back to the real word...
Trump convinced Lukashenko to release political prisoners after lifting sanctions
https://efe.com/en/latest-news/2025-12-13/trump-convinced-lukashenko-to-release-political-prisoners-after-lifting-sanctions/ |
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12-14-25 carib
| Leo: you still think it is not worth yet to seek a summary judgement? |
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12-14-25 leopardo
10% of the liquid(finance) part.
I also have illiquid that give me/us some money
to live on. |
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12-14-25 carib
Leo, not at all "negligeable".. because it is a much higher % of the "liquid", discretionary portfolio.
My living income comes from the illiquid part. |
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12-14-25 leopardo
That having said I’m ready to hold the position even
with the risks involved. |
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12-14-25 leopardo
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12-14-25 carib
| Leo: in my case, back to 5%. |
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12-14-25 carib
IMHO the idea of a "compromise" with Maduro based on his exit with chavistas keeping control of the army should remain a non-starter. In Nicaragua, a country I actually know well, Ortega accepted defeat in 1990, against the advice of Fidel (I was actually there that long night), but was able to get back in power via ballot box some years later, because FSLN was never fully "purged". Now Daniel is there "for life".
The idea of offering personal guarantees is sound, but the idea of allowing the bad guys to keep a foot in the door should be rejected, again IMHO. |
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12-14-25 leopardo
At today’s prices I have a 10% exposure
more or less |
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12-14-25 carib
I though so, Leo. That is why, personally, I always think that the % exposure to a certain credit is always very relevant.
If below 1%, even a big success only changes very marginally total performance, but if above 5%.. then you need a lot of good reasons and conviction to double down, unless you do not mind running the risk of losing the ranch.
In my case, on Veny bonds, I set a self imposed limit of 5%,which, given the low average cost, provided a significant potential upside if magically the problem gets solved, but still limits the pain in case Caracas becomes Habana2.
After the sanctions, I mentally wrote the credit in my estate value calculations, so it was a nice development to see them back to what they costed me.
The calculus would be very different again for investors from Venezuela, because free offshore money should not be invested to concentrate risk, but to differentiate it. |
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12-14-25 leopardo
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12-14-25 carib
Savo: I would add that in retrospect, I was not "clever" enough to try buying a large nominal of PDVsa bond at 3 cents on the dollar under sanctions, because I could have sold most of them back @25 cents on the dollar now, and live relaxed ever after.
The reason is I thought I already had an exposure higher than reasonable, and there was no sufficient motive for risking a ranch on such a bet.
That is the same reason for not buying more now. |
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12-14-25 savo
The issue here is the "cleverness" of individual colores bondholders.
:-))))
cleverness is erratic.. we were not clever holding veni after 2019... but we were clever not selling when it hit 2%...
The intelectual doubt that I have is this:
If Trump bombards and veni does not turn into another guerrilla warfare country like Nicaragua in the 80s.. matter solved ... bonds jump.
If Trumps does not bombard and doesn't do anything ...we go back to 2022 when Guaido had become already a bad word, the oppo disbanded with the money stolen from Citgo and Monomeros and bonds hit rock bottom.
If Trump does not bombard and revises policy using the 1MM barrels as a base to work out a transition without sanctions... bonds also jump.
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12-14-25 leopardo
Trump has 3 more years.
More then enough ,I think, to get rid of the Narco-Gang |
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12-14-25 carib
| My only point is that, in practice, my hope the the Cuban regime implodes tomorrow morning, or Savo's hope that the US administration changes policy, have no impact whatsoever on actual developments, so that our task is inevitably limited to making educated predictions, and invest accordingly. |
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12-14-25 carib
| For example: Leo's "cleverness" currently is "wait and see", and so is mine. Not very "clever", actually, but a measure of uncertainty. |
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12-14-25 carib
Savo: I do not attribute any "cleverness" to the market.
I just mentioned a fact. The issue here is the "cleverness" of individual colores bondholders. |
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12-14-25 savo
to put things in context......
Angola exports a bit less than 1.5 million barrels... has several bonds in the market and recently issued a 2030 and a 2035 at 9.875% and 10.95%.
Nigeria exports around 1.5mm barrels.. the Nigeria 36 trades at less than 8%.
Veni exporting close to 1mm barrels was in a good base to work out some kind of transition without sanctions.
Progress had been made during all these years...Unfortunately the neocons decided to go back in time 7 years...
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12-14-25 savo
carib... i do not know why you attribute any particular cleverness to the market... it is the same market that crashes against every possible wall since the beginning of time.
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12-14-25 leopardo
| I’m not buying nore selling |
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12-14-25 carib
| In the meantime, the question is to sell, if one expects "cubanisation" as the outcome, or to buy, if one expects a viable solution. The market appears to believe that political change grants some sort of solution, and continuity will not. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Time will soon tell where we are, IMHO. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
"We are where we are"
Exactly. |
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12-14-25 savo
and let me add.. we are where we are which is exactly where we were in 2019 including bond prices... oil exports halted... Maduro's days are numbered, etc...... only thing different is Rubio instead of Pompeo.
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12-14-25 savo
pana..sorry... you forget sanctions... how did you expect Maduro to conduct free and fair elections under a 50MM price tag?
Did you really expect he was going to accept defeat and hand over power under personal sanctions?
That election was a farce and it ended in the only way it could possibly end.
We knew it they knew it. But that was the Dems... we don't know what kind of deal they had with Maduro..then the Dems lost... Trump and the neocons came... and we are where we are.
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12-14-25 panasonic
| Savo, negotiations already happened with Maduro when nephews were released, free and fair elections and hand power...problem is, Maduro has been stripped of power. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
| Carib, as said long discussion on Taiwan, my short version is China would face extremely harsh global sanctions, not only from USA, if China decides to invade. |
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12-14-25 savo
pana.. clarification...i am not saying China will send supersonic missiles to Veni if the US attacks... but I am not saying they will not either... things are complex... we do not know the whole story... the BBc does not have any more info than the rest of us... the BBC speaks through specific journalists who provide their own personal opinions under the label BBC .. those opinions are as valid as yours or mine...
all I am saying is that in the current world order... if the US is on one side.. China and Russia are in the other. And they are not passive observers... they get involved.. proof 1 Maduro is still there.. proof 2 Ukraine war into the 4th year..(how can a 2 trn economy beat EU 19trn?.. answer China is involved behind the scenes)
It seems to me that the US understands this well... and wants to avoid military involvement for as long as possible.
The only guys that do not understand what is going on are Macron and Merz.
Listen to Putin here:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/gz8WuV3rcwY
My personal opinion remains the same... Maduro and the rest of the gang would be happy to go if a proper exit is provided. That may include some more years in Miraflores and a transition without sanctions. Had they agreed to that in 2019 ...Maduro would be history by now... Instead they sent Abrams to negotiate ...you know the result. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: I do not consider realistic the idea of kicking China out of global markets, but consider possible the idea of regime change in Cuba, with all that would follow. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, me looking forward to kick Russia and China from the region.
As for EU they certainly have a problem in hands.
Taiwan requires a long discussion, my "short" version is that China can't break with USA, EU and Asia at the same time, would need to deal with extremely harsh global sanctions. |
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12-14-25 carib
In the LatAm sub-continent, IMHO, the next big potential turning point will be the elections in Brasil, next october.
Chile is turning "right" today, almost certainly. |
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12-14-25 carib
Panas: it is not a surprise, what the BBC states.
Neither Russia or China have the will and the means to protect Maduro, or Cuba, for the matter, in case the USA decides to act.
Russia seeks payback in eastern europe, and China in Taiwan. |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, you need to put my answer back in the context of BBC's article.
Savo thinks its wrong me think they are right. Russian and Chinese support is fading out.
Only support left is the fear of financial links to a long list of regime paid friends.
What do you think,is article right or wrong? |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: perhaps, but the people you mention do not have a say on what is to happen, hence are irrelevant, IMHO. |
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12-14-25 pillz
carib
Pill: I think in the 26 region..
//
thanks... |
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12-14-25 panasonic
Carib, where did I say DT?
I'm talking the Sanchez, Petro, Zapatero, Sanders, etc. |
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12-14-25 carib
un extenso reportaje de The New York Times, que expone cómo el actual secretario de Estado estadounidense, Marco Rubio, concibe la salida de Maduro del poder como una pieza clave para debilitar al régimen de La Habana.
El diario estadounidense recuerda que, durante el primer mandato de Donald Trump, un intento fallido de derrocar a Maduro en 2019 dejó una lección clara para Rubio y otros funcionarios de Washington: Cuba fue determinante para mantener al chavismo en el poder.
Según exfuncionarios citados por el medio, la inteligencia cubana alertó a Maduro de la conspiración y agentes de La Habana ayudaron a sofocar la revuelta, mientras un avión esperaba para evacuarlo si era necesario.
“Su teoría del cambio implica cortar todo apoyo a Cuba”, afirmó Juan González, exasesor del presidente Joe Biden para asuntos del hemisferio occidental, citado por The New York Times. “Según este planteamiento, una vez que Venezuela caiga, Cuba le seguirá”.
Makes sense.
Not sure if plan will be actually enforced. |
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12-14-25 carib
| Panas: the thesis that narco cartels are "financing" Trump.. to start a war against them.. is fascinating. IMHO DT and family happily "finance" themselves with no narco support, right now. |
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