02-23-26 spal
The reason I'm mentioning this is that this, too, is an indicator for the rotation from growth to value, as growth companies, in general, are now the ones heavily spending on capex and dealing with AI disruption risks. “Hard asset” companies, meanwhile, are on the receiving end of these cash flows and hiring people to turn orders into revenue.
As I think this is a multi-year (if not longer) development.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4872353-the-old-playbook-is-dead-and-wall-street-has-to-adapt |
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02-22-26 spal
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02-22-26 carib
| Spal: Aponte, who is neapolitan, took up swiss citizenship, and lives in Geneva. |
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02-22-26 spal
The 92% utilization projection for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) in 2026 marks a generational high, effectively signaling that the world's fleet of "compliant" supertankers is running at near-maximum capacity.
1. Breaking Down the 92% Estimation
This figure, largely attributed to maritime analysts like Omar Nokta (Jefferies) as of early 2026, is calculated using a Supply-Demand Gap methodology:
The "Ton-Mile" Surge: Shipping demand is not just about how much oil is moved, but how far. With the Red Sea largely closed to mainstream tankers and Venezuelan oil being rerouted to the US and Europe instead of China (via the shadow fleet), the average voyage distance has increased. More days at sea per cargo = fewer available ships.
The "Vetting" Squeeze: While there are 1,032 VLCCs, roughly 44% are older than 15 years. Oil majors (Shell, Chevron, BP) have strictly tightened their "vetting" standards. This creates a "shadow supply" of ships that exist on paper but cannot be used for 90% of global trade.
Zero Fleet Growth: In 2024 and 2025, new VLCC deliveries were at record lows (almost zero). The current 2026 fleet is effectively the same size as it was two years ago, while global oil demand has grown by ~2-3 million barrels per day.
2. Can Utilization go higher?
Yes, but with a caveat. Historically, 95% is considered the "functional ceiling" for the global fleet. Beyond that point, the system breaks down because there is no "slack" for repairs, dry-docking, or weather delays.
What would push it past 92%?
OPEC+ Production Normalization: If OPEC+ continues to unwind voluntary cuts (as they have started to do in early 2026), an influx of 1-2 million bpd of Middle Eastern crude would require an additional 30-40 VLCCs that simply don't exist.
The "Shadow Fleet" Collapse: If the US/Denmark interdictions successfully "ground" another 100 shadow tankers, those barrels must find their way onto compliant ships, pushing utilization toward 94-95%.
Panama Canal Bottlenecks: Continued drought or operational restrictions in the Panama Canal force ships to take even longer routes around Cape Horn, further soaking up tonnage.
3. The Greatest Beneficiaries
The companies winning this cycle are those with young, "Eco" fleets that are already 100% compliant with Western vetting and insurance standards.
Frontline (FRO): With the largest fleet of modern VLCCs and Suezmaxes, they are the "price setter" in the spot market. Every $10,000 increase in day rates adds significantly to their dividend capacity.
DHT Holdings: A "pure-play" VLCC operator. Their high exposure to the spot market means they capture the 92% utilization "up-cycle" more aggressively than peers.
Okeanis Eco Tankers (OET): Known for having one of the youngest and most fuel-efficient fleets in the world. They command a "quality premium" on top of the already high 2026 market rates.
Euronav / CMB.TECH: Their recent pivot toward hydrogen/cleaner fuels hasn't stopped them from benefiting from the "old world" tanker squeeze, as they still operate a massive core of VLCCs. |
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02-22-26 savo
A single tweet just vaporized BILLIONS from cybersecurity stocks.
CrowdStrike down 8%.
Cloudflare down 8.1%.
Okta down 9.2%.
SailPoint down 9.4%.
The Global X Cybersecurity ETF just hit its lowest level since November 2023.
What happened?
Anthropic dropped Claude Code Security.
It scans your entire codebase for vulnerabilities and suggests patches.
Sounds boring.
Until you read what it actually did:
In testing, Claude found over 500 HIGH-SEVERITY BUGS in production open-source codebases.
Bugs that had been sitting there for DECADES.
Despite years of expert review.
Despite fuzzing campaigns.
Despite penetration testing.
Despite million-dollar security audits.
Nobody found them.
An AI did. In hours.
Here's the terrifying part:
Traditional security tools work by pattern matching. They look for known vulnerabilities in a database.
Claude doesn't do that.
It READS code the way a human security researcher would.
Traces data flows. Understands how components interact. Catches logic flaws that rule-based tools can't see.
And it just outperformed every cybersecurity tool on the market.
Combined.
Wall Street figured this out fast.
If an AI can find what your $500k/year security team missed...
Why do you need the team?
If an AI catches bugs that CrowdStrike, Okta, and Cloudflare couldn't...
Why are you paying those subscriptions?
Barclays came out saying the selloff was "illogical" and Claude "doesn't compete" with these companies.
But here's what Barclays missed:
It's not about what Claude competes with TODAY.
It's about what it replaces TOMORROW.
The SaaS apocalypse hit legal software 3 weeks ago.
Thomson Reuters dropped 18% in one day.
$285 billion wiped from software stocks.
Now it's cybersecurity's turn.
The pattern is obvious:
Every industry that sells "expertise as a service" is about to get repriced.
Legal research? Done.
Code vulnerability scanning? Done.
Compliance checking? Coming soon.
Financial analysis? On deck.
Companies that spent 20 years building "moats" around specialized knowledge are watching AI swim right over them.
CrowdStrike is worth $95 billion.
They have 30,000 customers.
Claude just found 500 bugs their tools missed.
Do the math.
The smart money already sees what's happening.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down 23% YTD.
Heading for its largest quarterly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.
Not because software is dying...
But because software companies that charge per-seat subscriptions for AI-replicable work are dying.
Anthropic just proved that a general-purpose AI can outperform DECADES of specialized cybersecurity infrastructure.
In a single product release.
While still in "limited research preview."
It's not even fully launched yet.
What happens when it scales?
We're about to find out.
https://x.com/ric_rtp/status/2025564856317890577 |
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02-22-26 savo
PT.. do you understand this?
https://kakashiii111.substack.com/p/the-circular-trap-how-sam-altman |
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02-22-26 carib
Chavismo.. remains a rotting military dictatorships.
But if fair elections come, they will lose them, no matter sanctioning candidates, unless perhaps if they completely change skins. Anyway, what we creditors care is getting paid. |
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02-22-26 savo
anti-psycho...
The National Assembly has approved an amnesty law that in theory would halt persecution, remove coercive measures, and release Venezuelan dissidents targeted during protest cycles and political crises under Chávez and Maduro, extending back to the 2002 anti‑Chávez protests and coup. The law excludes individuals charged with military rebellion, including many FANB personnel and politicians accused of involvement in military conspiracies.
The regime made sure to include an anti-María Corina clause: It excludes: “Persons who are or may be prosecuted or convicted for promoting, instigating, requesting, invoking, favoring, facilitating, financing or participating in armed actions or the use of force against the people, the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, by States, corporations or foreign persons.”
Key detail: anyone who commits a covered “crime” after the amnesty law takes effect won’t benefit, and can therefore be prosecuted under existing laws. In other words, chavismo retains the right to target people for actions it is supposed to be pardoning. |
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02-22-26 spal
| revised estimate - $9.50. |
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02-22-26 spal
FECCF - Frontera Energy.
This month it was announced that Terminal Investment Limited ($TIL), part of the $MSC Group, has completed the purchase of Terminal Portuario de Paracas (TPP). TPP holds the concession to operate Puerto General San Martín port in Pisco, Peru. They paid $200 million.
It is clear that global operators are aggressively seeking entry into Latin American "gateway" ports.
Multi-purpose, deep-water terminals like Puerto Bahía are scarce. The fact that Frontera Energy is expressly retaining its infrastructure business (Puerto Bahía and ODL) proves that they see Puerto Bahía as a "crown jewel" that is currently undervalued by the market.
If a general cargo terminal in Pisco is worth $200M, a specialized, refinery-connected energy hub in Cartagena (GASCO deal) - the best-connected port in Latin America - commands a significant premium. Think $300 million.
And we are yet to talk about ODL which paid 69 million in dividends to them over 2025.
Shares worth well north of $12.
https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/ports-logistics/msc-s-til-acquires-terminal-in-peru |
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02-22-26 spal
This is his co:
That would also mean that MSC would be the largest ocean carrier and the largest port and terminal operator in the world at the same time, in an unprecedented dual dominance in the shipping industry.
The deal refers to taking over CK Hutchison (Li Ka-shing) port biz. |
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02-22-26 carib
| I think he lives in Switzerland.. |
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02-22-26 spal
The lowkey Aponte, silver-haired and slight of build, rarely speaks in public or gives interviews. His closely held company doesn’t publish financial reports or strategy updates.
... sounds like a colore at heart. |
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02-22-26 spal
| Carib - presume you have heard of Gianluigi Aponte? I just read his story - really incredible Italian success ... first I have heard of him. |
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02-22-26 spaldo
I haven't forgotten, carib.
That was great of you. |
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02-22-26 spaldo
I haven't forgotten, carib.
That was great of you. |
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02-22-26 victor
| pt, after maduro was captured, the first thing delcy did was name cabello's daugher, daniela, as minister of tourism. |
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02-22-26 victor
pt, it seems the Veni military has wisely decided to cooperate with the US and if necessary kick the Cubans out.
//
that is yet to be seen.
the dt admin is great at cooking up bs.
tariffs, for example. |
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02-22-26 carib
| Spaldo: we did, on jan 4th.. |
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02-22-26 spaldo
_ no chaos, no killings, really a piece of art._
We should acknowledge that at some point.
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02-22-26 carib
Cuba, al borde de la parálisis: “Siento que es el final de la película”
Las calles de La Habana se vacían de tráfico y turistas mientras la población exhausta, que sobrevive al día, espera un desenlace de la asfixia petrolera de Trump
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02-22-26 carib
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02-22-26 panasonic
Carib yes, both easy ones, the big question here is will Diosdy hand Nicolasito?
PT, I think the political value of Maduro's capture far above what media willing to admit, no chaos, no killings, really a piece of art. |
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02-22-26 carib
El Servicio de Inmigración y Control de Aduanas de Estados Unidos (ICE) actualizó recientemente sus registros oficiales sobre los fugitivos más buscados. La agencia federal ahora identifica a Tareck El Aissami y al empresario Samark López dentro de su sección de individuos capturados. Esta modificación en el estatus digital de ambos sujetos genera una ola de interrogantes sobre el paradero real de los acusados por la justicia norteamericana.
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02-22-26 patient-trader
| it seems the Veni military has wisely decided to cooperate with the US and if necessary kick the Cubans out. |
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02-22-26 patient-trader
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuban-security-forces-exit-venezuela-us-pressure-mounts-2026-02-21/
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