12-12-25 savo
carib.. veni is not a communist dictatorship... may be a dictatorship... but certainly not communist... nicaragua idem... which proves that tropical communism is dead... Cuba is and old story... a US fuck up 60 years ago whcih could have been sorted out many times had it not been for the parents of the current cuban renegades...
argentina was not a dictatorship but was on the way to becoming one with the colonization of the courts... the original plan was nestor.. cfk.. .. nestor... cfk... and so on... nestor died so cfk went for reelection which was the mistake... because she could not then get re-elected.. Rubio wanted to put sanctions on CFK... had they done that.. CFK might still be there... things are complex... old labels do not apply. |
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12-12-25 carib
Argentina, Ecuador and Bolivia had "leftist" governments for a while, but never were "communist" dictatorships.
Better move back to bond prices, where discussions can be more useful. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: you just confirmed we disagree.
;-)
I agree with Vargas Llosa on the matter. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. i think tropical communism, if by that you refer to nicaragua, cuba and veni, would not exist without US sanctions...
argie, ecuador, bolivia were in that group too... Had the US put personal sanctions on them. argie would still have CFK, Ecuador would still have Correa and Bolivia would still have Evo...
The worst possible strategy to get rid of tropical comunism is to sanction the country and its leaders.
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12-12-25 carib
| Savo, my view is equally simple, concerning lat-am: tropical communism is a disease, and the sooner it's eradicated, the better. But, as I said, your political views and mine are irrelevant, because we have 0 influence... except on buying or selling decisions. |
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12-12-25 savo
carib.. your political views are very difficult to track.. lately you seem to be all over the place...including assassination.
Mine is very simple... yankees get the fuck out of Latam.. you are not welcome. |
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: yet again.. we hold opposite political views, and there is little point in repeating them over and over, because neither of us will change such opinions.
The matters actually worth discussing, because we can actually do something about it.. is: selling or buying? Seeking a summary judgement.. or waiting?
Obviously, is one EXPECTS (rather than hopes for) a positive solution soon.. he should probably still buy at current levels.. whilst if one EXPECTS no solution any time soon.. this is probably a good time to sell and forget the issue.
The second practical issue is.. if a restructuring will happen within a couple of years.. is it not better to be in the group of creditors with a summary executable judgement? |
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
i want a restructuring too and that would be very easy to get if the US lifts all sanctions... and returns the southern command to base.
It can be done in 30 seconds... one order.. and one select all and delete. No casualties... no more misery to the people of venezuela... no more exiles.
You seem to believe that Maduro is a variable... he isn't.. he is the constant... the rest is variable...Trump is variable...he will be gone in three years...and his cohort will move into some other occupation. Maduro instead will have 3 more years in Miraflores.
You can have Maduro and a restructuring or Maduro and not a restructuring. But you can not not have Maduro. He is the Sphinx of Giza... hoping that this time will be different and yes.. this time he will go is wasting hope.... in my opinion.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: as you know, our views differ radically, but are irrelevant, because neither of us calls the shots. The fact that US "strategy" on Veny has been either non-existant or ineffective.. is self evident, but of course the effectiveness or lack thereof depends on the goal sought.
My own portfolio goal would be to get a fair restructuring of PDVsa bonds with a radiant future of the debtor, leading to full recovery. The political ideal goal would be the fall of Chavismo, Castrismo and similar obnoxious regimes in Latin America.
In practice, the only thing we can decide is selling, buying more or just waiting.. and in the meanime going to federal court.. or not yet.
I think Trump's goal is.. Trump and family. |
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12-12-25 savo
meanwhile BTC back below 90K... every time BTC approaches Salylor's liquidation lever some "invisible hand" pushes it up..
Rumor is the Trump's sons are heavily invested in BTC.
One of them was recently in Gibraltar, which is a cryto hub in europe.
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12-12-25 savo
carib..
a good negotiator considers all possible outcomes and values the impact of each of them on the innocent bystander... based on the probabilities chooses a course of action.
bad negotiators consider success as the only possible outcome and disregard the possibility the policy does not work.
That mistake has costed us 8 years of coupons... veni 60% of its gdp and 7 million exiles. Of course wealthy venezuelans living luxuriously in Madrid, NYC, Geneva, London and Miami do not care about their fellow nationals trapped in veni.
I do not see anything in the actual strategy that is any better than the old strategy other than higher frequency... for the simple reason that all this air and sea blockades does not affect the regime... they only affect the people in venezuela who will have less goods available and thus more inflation... they are not going to raise against the government because they know they will be picked up at night at home and sent to the helicoide.
We are exactly exactly in the same place we were in Jan 2019..including the excitement... and bond prices are... not surprisingly... at the same level..also including the excitement.
The only real option that I see that would end this nonsense in 24 hours is to accept Maduro's offer, three years without sanctions and then he leaves.
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12-12-25 carib
Savo: sanctioned did cripple Veny oil exports, to a point, but closing air and sea space would be quite different.
Not enough for an automatic implosion, but a step in a long walk.
Obviously a faster knock out would be better. |
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12-12-25 carib
The United States has announced new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels it says help move Venezuelan oil, putting more pressure on a major prop of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime a day after it seized a sanctioned tanker likely carrying millions of dollars’ worth of oil off the country’s coast.
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12-12-25 spal
Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew points out that Venezuela competes with also-sanctioned barrels from Russia and Iran.
"Should Venezuelan crude vanish from the market, the impact would be to the sanctioned oil trade ... the impact to the non-sanctioned, legal oil market could be fairly small, as it would be sanctioned cargoes that would fill the gap," he said via email. |
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12-12-25 savo
pt.. immense riches await the Cuban renegades if Maduro leaves.
Anybody wanting to do business in Veni will have to "partner" with them.
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12-12-25 patient-trader
I guess for Rubio and friends Veni is not the main issue. The main issue is Cuba. But you can only have a regime-change in Cuba if you kill their financing sources in Veni.
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