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05-06-24 savo
carib ..
i do not see how this is a chicken and egg situation... if sanctions are not lifted it is game over.. maduro stays... everybody loses.
the only consturctive option is to lift sanctions in exchange of a competitive election... if the election happens not to be competitive as reasonably certified by one of those bodies mentioned in the press .. the US puts sanctions back or does whatever they think they should do.
Sanctions can be put and removed and removed and put.. there is an army of people at Ofac whose only job is to write sanctions... |
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05-06-24 carib
Warren Buffett is a very old fox.
He understands the current US fiscal path is unsustainable, and assumes this is likely to mean higher taxes in the future.
Given people vote and corporations do not, he probably thinks more corporate taxes are coming.
IMHO this will be a matter of effective rates more than nominal ones.
But, anyway, doubling US corporate taxes would in theory cut the
federal deficit by 30%.. but in practice doubling taxes out of the blue would seriously hit profit margins, and hence valuations.
Lower stock prices mean capital losses, hence less tax revenue from individuals, and given the correlation between stock markets and private consumption, could lead to a recession.
Bottom line: there is no free lunch, in the long term, in the sense that eventually bills come due.
The impact of the proposed "billionaires tax" could be far less systemic.. but I personally find the concept of taxing unrealised capital gains abhorrent. |
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05-06-24 carib
Savo: it's the old chicken and egg dilemma.
either we get a positive solution.. or scrambled eggs and no chicken. |
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05-06-24 carib
below, probably the actual issue:
Berkshire Hathaway could face a sizable tax bill if the bull market resumes this year.
Ever since a 15% corporate minimum tax was included in the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, there has been uncertainty about whether corporations would owe taxes on paper profits, or unrealized capital gains, on stocks starting this year. The treatment has long been that these paper profits created a deferred tax liability that is only paid when the stocks are sold, and the profits realized.
Berkshire Hathaway (ticker: BRKb) probably has the most at stake, and faces the biggest potential tax bill among U.S. corporations since its equity portfolio is so large—more than $300 billion. It has periodically had big unrealized gains in the portfolio, including $58.6 billion in 2021, and $26.8 billion in 2020.
Recent guidance from the Internal Revenue Service, while not definitive, suggests that paper profits on stocks could be subject to a 15% tax this year, according to New York tax expert Robert Willens. The issue involves the tax treatment of applicable financial statement income (AFSI), a measure of earnings. |
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05-06-24 carib
| US federal corporate tax revenue was 420BB last year, less than 1/3 of the deficit, less than 8% of total spending.. and about 1,5% of GDP. |
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05-06-24 carib
Buffett is older, wiser and much better informed than myself.. but I do not expect US corporate taxes to go up significantly.
adding state surtaxes.. they are already higher than several other developed countries.
The issue IMHO is in the tax code, that allows an effective tax rate much lower than the nominal one.
Just an opinion. |
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05-06-24 panasonic
| Maduro will go as far as the cartel allows, it became extremely hard to move money these days the value of an escape valve is pretty high right now...but of course, handing power is not an option. |
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05-06-24 savo
| leo.. i think the quality of the election and the lifting of sanctions have to go hand in hand... otherwise Maduro stays. |
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05-06-24 leopardo
Pillz we will have to wait June.
My take is that sanctions on Pdvsa might be reverted before elections if Maduro and Chavistas behave in the right way. |
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05-06-24 pillz
Venezuelan oil exports plunge as US sanctions start to bite
Sun May 05 13:10:23 2024 EDT
Venezuela's oil exports took a sharp nosedive in April, plummeting by 38% as tanker owners and customers swiftly withdrew vessels awaiting loading from the country's waters, anticipating the reimposition of US sanctions, which eventually took place on April 17, as per shipping data and documents reviewed by Reuters.
The US Treasury Department's decision to nix the renewal of a six-month licence granted to Venezuela's oil sector last year to encourage free and fair elections, coupled with the directive for companies to conclude pending transactions by the end of May, precipitated the exodus of vessels from Venezuelan ports.
According to data compiled by LSEG, a total of 37 vessels set sail from Venezuela's ports in April. Export volumes averaged 545,000 barrels per day of crude and fuel, marking a significant decline from the peak of 873,500 bpd shipped in March and the 703,000 bpd exported during the same period last year, reflecting the seismic impact of the sanctions.
The departure of approximately six supertankers, which had languished empty for months while awaiting crude loading at ports operated by state oil company PDVSA, underscored the industry's concerns over loading delays and doubts regarding the adequacy of the Washington-granted grace period for completing sales, revealed the data and company documents.
Among the vessels that departed without loading, at least two had been chartered by Polish state-controlled refiner Orlen, with destinations set for Asia, according to the data and documents.
The repercussions of the disrupted exports were keenly felt in Venezuela's shipments to Asia, which plunged by 64% to 206,000 bpd in April. In contrast, exports to the United States saw a notable increase, rising by 34% to 238,000 bpd, driven by expanded output and exports from joint ventures between PDVSA and Chevron, the data indicated.
Furthermore, Venezuela's exports of oil byproducts and petrochemicals amounted to 236,000 tonnes, down from 463,000 tonnes in March. Fuel imports also witnessed a marginal uptick, reaching 57,000 bpd compared to 53,000 bpd in the preceding month.
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Provided by INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC |
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05-06-24 panasonic
Here what WB explained yesterday:
https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/warren-buffett-just-sold-more-than-100-million-shares-of-apple-reason-why-is-eye-opening.html |
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05-06-24 panasonic
True Carib, corporate taxes different. I mixed with personal.
WB made the move bcz thinks Biden will win? |
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05-05-24 savo
| so what is pana talking about? :-) ? |
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05-05-24 carib
| Berkshire, obviously, pays corporate taxes, not personal taxes. |
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05-05-24 carib
| Savo: that is for personal taxation, not corporate taxation.For corps, in the US, federal tax is 21%.. but effective taxation is a fraction of that, because of amortisations, depreciations and many other facilities offered by the tax code. |
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05-05-24 savo
carib..i think pana is referring to this:
Long-term capital gains tax
A long-term capital gains tax is a tax on profits from the sale of an asset held for more than a year. The rates are 0%, 15% or 20%, depending on your taxable income and filing status. The IRS says most people pay no more than 15% on their long-term capital gain.
Short-term capital gains tax
A short-term capital gains tax is a tax on profits from the sale of an asset held for one year or less. Short-term capital gains are taxed according to ordinary income tax brackets: 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% or 37%. |
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05-05-24 carib
Panas: I am no expert on US corporate taxation.. but I think there is no separate 21% tax on cap gains, just the ordinary nominal tax rate is 21% on corporate income, with the actual rate being much lower.
If Trump wins, rate might get lower rather than higher. If Biden gets re-elected, I doubt he has enough votes in the senate to increase the rate.
WB just thinks it is prudent to keep close to 200B in short term treasuries paying more than 5%, waiting for future opportunities, IMHO.
end of comment. |
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05-05-24 panasonic
| Carib, according to WB they reduced Apple shares bcz don't see taxes on long term cap gains @21% has much time left. |
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