02-02-26 savo
pana.. one more push and Saylor is over and out... without him as buyer of last resort there is no floor for the BTC scam, BTC treasury companies and BTC etfs ... may be Trump decides to bail the sector out with public money...
The good thing is that Gen Z will have to start looking for honest salary paying jobs. |
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02-01-26 panasonic
| Meanwhile BTC under bear attack @$76K, Saylor will buy more coins if finds new suckers to buy unsecured prefs. |
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02-01-26 spal
Overall Market Thesis – Validated, But With Nuance
Core premise: Oil transportation rates are on a cyclical upswing due to tightening vessel supply + strong demand and geopolitical disruption.
Validated by recent market data:
* VLCC spot freight and tonne-mile demand have surged well above historical averages, driven by sanctions, longer reroutes, and resilient crude exports. Fleet utilization near decade highs supports elevated charter rates through at least mid-2026.
* Sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan shipping reduce effective compliant tonnage, elevating rates.
* Red Sea and Hormuz risk generally keep longer route demand and risk premium elevated (higher bunker, insurance costs).
Risk to thesis:
* New tanker deliveries **begin increasing later in 2026, which could cap upside if demand doesn’t outpace supply then.
* Potential rate volatility if Red Sea and Hormuz situations de-escalate.
Conclusion on thesis:Yes, tightening and disruption support higher rates short term; this implies a positive freight environment will likely persist over the next 3 months.
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02-01-26 carib
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02-01-26 spal
Guys - my understanding - I think all of ours (I think it was you Panas that said that timeframes have compressed). That is for sure in the overfinancialized United States. And with the k-shaped economny and very wealthy asset class (plus elevated asset prices accross the board) - we have to conclude that volatility is also increased.
Silver (and precious metals) shows us this in real time. There is a connection right there between the hot money and k-classs greed. They chased it.
But there is also wierdness throughout the system. Take bitcoin. This is full of half-baked conspiracies that are truely currently beleived about "money". Plus all measures of techno arrogance. The main point though is that these people remain liquid and can express and indulge these beliefs and fantasies. In large pockets of the market the only thing that props these up is this "sentiment".
I do think that longer term the copper supply is impaired and demand is solid - but watch short term for weakness.
I do think that the setup in oil is good (might be 12 months out) - unless peace breaks out in Iran/Ukraine and Vene is settled (tomorrow) or unless we go into a global recession.
I hold tankers (clean and dirty) - in and out of copper - some rate plays (as the curve will now steepen) and some commend economy plays (as the US turns inwards).
Things of course are moving very fast and I don't think I am saying this because I am getting older (I hope not). And things also increasingly depend on the blurtings and dysfunctions of very concentrated power sources - mostly autocrats (in fact) or defacto (posing as democratic leaders).
Much as I like to simply watch the grass growing I think this caravan needs to keep on the move. |
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02-01-26 panasonic
Here a decent explanation on why Saylor is protected under the pref. structure he built:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/31/michael-saylor-s-bitcoin-stack-is-officially-underwater-but-here-s-why-he-likely-won-t-reach-for-the-panic-button |
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02-01-26 panasonic
| I second amateur, congrats on that call Spal. |
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02-01-26 carib
timing, timing and timing..
or more boring investments that, as Warren B said.. are "like watching the grass grow"... |
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02-01-26 spal
Thanks Amateur - the trick is to stay just one step ahead of the mob.
Al Pacino / Coach D'Amato: (01:47) / On Every Sunday
You find out life's this game of inches. So is football because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small. I mean, one half a step too late or too early and you don't quite make it. One half second, too slow, too fast, you don't quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break of the game, every minute, every second.
Such a great speech. |
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02-01-26 amateur
Great call, Spal…” start exiting some metals positions today - rotating to energy …”
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