02-05-26 panasonic
| Spal, zero no way! at $1 we colores can buy Saylor's position and start colores crypto fund. |
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02-05-26 spal
Richard Farr, chief market strategist and partner at Pivotus Partners, has issued a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), setting a price target of zero for the cryptocurrency.
“Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not just for shock factor. It’s where the math takes us,” the strategist said, noting that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has failed to function as a dollar hedge and instead operates as “a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.”
According to Farr, the cryptocurrency faces insurmountable obstacles in gaining institutional adoption or serving as a legitimate medium of exchange.
“No serious central bank will ever own something where Michael Saylor controls the float,” he said on X, referring to the Strategy (MSTR) executive who has accumulated massive bitcoin holdings.
The strategist also criticized Bitcoin’s environmental impact, stating that miners “are bleeding cash” while the network remains “horribly inefficient as a transaction processor and wastes tremendous amounts of energy.”
Farr’s assessment aligns with warnings from Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, who cautioned that falling Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices could trigger a self-reinforcing “death spiral.”
Burry noted that Bitcoin, down more than 40% from its October peak, is now “exposed as a completely speculative asset” that does not qualify as a debasement hedge like gold (XAUUSD:CUR) or silver (XAGUSD:CUR). “Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,” the investor wrote in a Substack post.
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02-05-26 victor
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02-05-26 spal
| PT - keep as posted on you shorts ... s'il vous plaît |
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02-05-26 patient-trader
| Victor, I am short Tesla because they looked very weak. Google is very much on vogue because they have the best AI model currently. I think we see a big shift in sentiment over the next months, possibly a market crash. Now, one can play the market from the short side much safer because the bubble has been pricked. What I am looking for are weak volatile companies which can be shorted cheaply and who will be clobbered anyway. I wouldn't short Google now. |
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02-05-26 carib
| In a nutshell: creditors like high rates with no default. debtors like to deflate debt with negative rates. the US is a large debtor. |
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02-05-26 carib
Savo: I would also like a world with strong currencies and positive interest rates. I just do not see the USA doing this, and I have to deal with the circumstances we get.
Deleveraging rarely causes stronger growth. Midterms are in nine months. |
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02-05-26 spal
| Panas - yes some of the bitcoin miners must be ready to blow up. |
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02-05-26 panasonic
| Spal, it will get even more interesting when a few private capital firms blow in pieces. |
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02-05-26 spal
Assessment of Acute Financial Stress
Strategy is not in immediate distress but faces growing risks if Bitcoin remains below $76,000 for an extended period or drops further.
Low Risk of Forced Liquidation: All 713k BTC is unencumbered, with no covenants triggering sales. CEO Phong Le stated sales would only occur under "extreme stress" if market cap falls below BTC value.
Break-Even Threshold: Bitcoin needs to stay above $76,000 for breakeven; below $60,000, liabilities could exceed BTC value, turning equity negative and complicating refinancing.
External Factors: Potential $2.8–$9 billion in forced selling from MSCI index exclusion (decision Jan 15, 2026) could add pressure. Broader crypto selloffs (e.g., via ETFs) amplify volatility. However, Strategy's software revenue (~$500 million annually) provides some diversification, though it's dwarfed by BTC exposure.
Proximity to Stress: Moderate—reserves cover 2+ years, and flexibility exists, but a sustained BTC drop to $60,000–$65,000 (pushing losses to $6–$8 billion) could force sales or bankruptcy risks if debt refinancing fails.
Strategy's model is resilient short-term but vulnerable to prolonged bear markets.
No signs of acute stress yet, but monitoring BTC price and capital access is key.
....
Below 60K on a sustained basis and he is in trouble.
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02-05-26 victor
savo, spal
a few years ago, when btc had a big drop, saylor didnt go broke.
so why should he go broke now? what is different this time?
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02-05-26 spal
| Savo I am with you on Saylor - I want this to go down harder than Enron. It is a fraud of bigger proportions. |
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02-05-26 spal
| Bitcoin ... doom loop is close |
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02-05-26 spal
ARMN
ARIS MNG CORP
Adding at these levels and dips. Gold miner in Colombia. Very good management and promotors. Just approved for NYSE uplisting. |
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02-05-26 spal
CRS - trying to find upward momentum in this market. Fortress USA position.
DHT - moving up - tanker rates strong - outlook holding. |
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02-05-26 panasonic
| MSTR unsecured prefs will send a few private capital firms to a very cold reality. |
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02-05-26 panasonic
PT, the bull side for Googl, they can finance all their AI needs using cash flow, all others need to get in substantial debt.
Imho Google will eat them alive.
Aaple sided with their archi-enemy Google for a reason, just my 2 cents. |
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02-05-26 spal
Bitcoin USD Price (BTC-USD)
69,850.77
(-6.92%) |
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02-05-26 spal
| PT - good prediction on AI / Google and interesting comment. |
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02-05-26 savo
carib.. i think you got it backwards... in a world of real positive rates people will be willing to save more... not less... and when there are more savings there are more investments and the standard of living goes up not down.
In a financial repressed world people save less and consume more... produce less and imports more... hence the BoT deficits.
The US .. the typical example... does not produce what it consumes... has a bot deficit... pays with freely printed dollars... achieves a standard of living beyond its means... the moment the USD stops being the reserve currency the US will have to consume less... save more... invest more and produce more...which will be good for the US and the rest of the world. |
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02-05-26 carib
The convincing argument against targeting 0% inflation was made by Krugman: inflation is an average, and and an average of 0% necessarily implies some prices decreasing and some increasing, which is normal, but also some salaries increasing and some decreasing.Now, it is clearly much easier to have some salaries decreasing in real terms but not in absolute figures, for self evident reasons. Likewise, it is easier to have real negative rates that nominal negative rates, again self evident.
a 2% average inflation is perhaps a bar the average human brain fails to feel as significant, in real life.
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02-05-26 carib
Savo: firstly, we live and invest in the existing economy, not in the one we wished to have.
Second, I suppose that in a very deleveraged economy incomes and employment would be lower, together with some real estate prices.
Not really a good place to move to.
But anyway, it does not depend on us.The reality is US inflation is around 3% and EU inflation around 2%,and the incentive to save and lend money at real rates which are close to zero after tax is very modest.
Not so in Brasil, where after tax rates are about 12%, and inflation is 5. |
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02-05-26 pillz
What happens in the scenario where written options are not exercised and you only get the premium? 'In that case, the capital gains tax does not apply', it reads.
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02-05-26 pillz
| it is for the new 10% tax on profit, soo, I will not need to pay it :) |
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02-05-26 pillz
| Wat gebeurt er in het scenario waarin geschreven opties niet worden uitgeoefend en u alleen de premie krijgt? ‘In dat geval is de meerwaardebelasting niet van toepassing', luidt het. |
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02-05-26 pillz
| One billionaire Chinese trader who’s betting against silver is sitting on a $300 million paper gain. |
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02-05-26 pillz
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02-05-26 victor
| pt, are you betting on this scenario? |
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02-05-26 patient-trader
Googles announcement that they spent significantly more than the market expects confirms that they are not an advertising company with juicy margins anymore but some sort of utility which does not produce water or electricity but AI.
Google will be a boring stock trading at much lower multiples.
Before the Dotcom bust, the "Internet" was hot stuff. After Dotcom the Internet was just a commodity used by others to build a business.
The same will happen with AI. It will be just a commodity. And Google will become a sort of Cisco. IMVHO
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02-05-26 spal
Burry warned that additional declines could quickly pressure the balance sheets of major holders, spark forced selling across the crypto ecosystem, and lead to broad value destruction.
“Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,” Burry wrote. Should Bitcoin fall another 10%, Strategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate crypto treasury, would be billions in the red and “find capital markets essentially closed.” Additional drops, he said, would push Bitcoin miners toward bankruptcy.
Burry added that "there is no organic use case reason for Bitcoin to slow or stop its descent," and that the token's adoption by corporate treasuries and new crypto-linked spot exchange-traded funds is not enough to buoy its price indefinitely. |
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02-05-26 spal
| Bitcoin falling in after hours trading now $71,860 |
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02-05-26 savo
carib.. i did buy furniture over time... and my last rental was unfurnished.
the point I am trying to make is that everybody expects some inflation... and loans devalue with it while home appreciate with it... hence people want a mortgage to buy a house.
I think this is very bad for society... and younger generations have to share the place where they live.
In a hard money economy... home prices would not increase and those who save can obtain real positive interest and eventually hae the money for a downpayment.
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02-04-26 carib
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02-04-26 carib
PS: statistics give a useful picture, I think.
If one looks to the early reports on asset allocation by UHNWIs, one sees a relevant (but not very high) % is in real estate, usually referring to residences used by the family.
Going down the ladder, almost all the people I employed either owned a home, or wished they could afford a mortgage.
That is my personal experience. |
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02-04-26 carib
Savo: I also preferred to rent, until I reached age 40.
Maybe most colores rent all their lives, but we are a small minority.
In the countries where I lived, a significant majority of families owned their home, and a significant portions of non-owners did no buy essentially because they cannot afford a 20% downpayment.
On this issue, I agree with Mrs Thatcher that considered home ownership a bastion of stable capitalism.
not everyone likes to remodel kitchens or have custom build houses,or at least buy their own furniture, paintings, carpets, etc. that is true, but most of the people who have sufficient means like to do that, maybe delegating tasks to a wife or an architect. The only time I rented a furnished flat was when I was 24, had no capital and knew that was just for 6 months.
Cheers. |
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02-04-26 spal
"the authority to buy bitcoin or other cryptos."
Fuck these guys.
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02-04-26 spal
| So far Bessant is doing his job exceptionally well. Just my opinion. |
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02-04-26 savo
hernie.. mobility and fixed cost... vs having the kitchen that you like...
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02-04-26 victor
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 2% on Wednesday to around $73,000 per token after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the US government would not bail out the cryptocurrency.
In a heated back-and-forth during a House Financial Services Committee hearing, Bessent was asked if the US Treasury had the authority to buy bitcoin or other cryptos.
"I do not have the authority to do that, and as chair of FSOC, I do not have that authority," Bessent stated. |
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02-04-26 Hernie
Savo: “Renting is a beautiful business in my opinion”
If I have been living by this mantra for a while, few years in London renting, few years in Paris renting, now in Madrid renting. Currently contemplating buying something here, perhaps in a couple of years time but TBD. Frankly, I enjoy the freedom of packing up my things and going somewhere else whenever I feel like it, which is what I have been doing to date. |
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02-04-26 victor
María Elvira Salazar 🇺🇸
Alex Saab nunca debió haber salido de custodia estadounidense. Si los reportes son ciertos, el testaferro de Maduro vuelve a caer donde siempre debió estar: tras las rejas en Venezuela.
Lo que sigue es claro: debe ser extraditado de inmediato para enfrentar la justicia en Estados Unidos junto a su amo, Nicolás Maduro.
Los cómplices de los dictadores no escapan al final de la historia.
Con Trump, empieza a revertirse el desastre que Biden dejó en el hemisferio. |
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02-04-26 savo
carib.. when you say most people like to own... depends on the circumstances.
If they would have to take a loan that does not lose value and have to buy a house that may lose value people might think differently. Since fiat... loans lose value and house usually increase in value.
In my personal case, when I started working, I preferred to trade the money I was making instead of buying a home and having to pay a deposit, stamp duty, maintenance, property taxes, etc....
I bought my first home when I was 40 and only because it was very close to my parents... and paid cash... I made some money on it when I sold it but do not know if I would have made more money doing something else with that money.
Renting is a beautiful business in my opinion. Cost is limited to the rent agreed and you can move out whenever you want giving some months notice. No need to wait for a buyer to buy your home if you want to move which may happen at the time of a downturn.
Most people do not refurbish...I lived in various rented properties and all were perfectly well when we moved in, because the landlord had made them attractive in order to rent it.
If fiat would give way to some kind of gold standard housing prices would become more affordable and those that do not own will have a better chance.
Of course that would mean a major financial crisis...which brings us back to death by inflation or death by financial crisis.
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02-04-26 carib
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02-04-26 Merlino
| Pana, it looks as a positive to me, we will see. Hope he is extradited to USA |
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02-04-26 panasonic
Saab arrested by Veni authorities, moment of truth, is he working with USA?
https://www.clarin.com/mundo/venezuela-afirman-arrestaron-alex-saab-testaferro-nicolas-maduro_0_jUOSrBrOji.html |
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02-04-26 carib
Savo: I actually only got a mortgage myself when the rate was so low it felt like a steal.. but most people borrow to buy.. simply because they are unable to buy cash. They could opt for renting..but most people prefer to own, so they can shape the house as they prefer.
One does not shell out big bucks to restructure a rented home.
Such is the real world. |
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02-04-26 spal
Shares of oil and gas companies are trading higher after reports suggesting plans for Iran nuclear talks are collapsing, as the U.S. refused Iran's demands. This may be raising the risk of renewed sanctions or conflict, fueling crude.
12:34 PM CST, February 04, 2026 |
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02-04-26 spal
Imagine having to borrow gold over 30 years duration to buy your home... How do you borrow gold on a floating rate?
===
Gold notes ... I will issue them. Of course it requires a legitimate legal system and a trustworthy guarantor on your side. |
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02-04-26 spal
Imagine having to borrow gold over 30 years duration to buy your home... How do you borrow gold on a floating rate?
===
Full circle.
The money is in the word "borrow" ... money is credit and trust.
Money is not fiat, bitcoin, gold, sheep, shells, cigarettes ... blah, blah, blah ... |
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02-04-26 savo
| regarding veni bonds i do not know. but i imagine that the possibility to start talks will be very positive. |
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02-04-26 savo
the only reason to buy a home with a 30 year fiat currency loan is to expect fiat to devalue and the home to revalue.
Absent that trick it is preferable to rent and let the owner pay the running cost. |
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02-04-26 carib
On Veny bonds.. assuming a licence to restructure comes next year.. how higher do you think prices might move?
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02-04-26 carib
Savo: I see crypto mostly as a "pump and dump" trap, hidden under the attractive idea of a "currency" free from government interference, so perhaps the Trumps.. already dumped.
I personally see financial disaster coming in the absence of credible fiat currencies.
Imagine having to borrow gold over 30 years duration to buy your home... How do you borrow gold on a floating rate?
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02-04-26 savo
| i think we have to wait with veni bonds ... at least until a license is issued to allow restructuring talks. |
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02-04-26 savo
saylor is now below his purchase price... 5 years investing in BTC and nothing to show for it...
Trump has a serious problem with this guy. He said the US would be the crypto capital of the world... but crypto is a scam... and his family including his Melania son is heavily invested according to rumors...as well as those who are said to have financed his campaign...
Will he use public money to save saylor?... if he doesn't there are no more buyers in town... the floor will drop .. and a whole generation of young people who intended to make a living out of crypto will find themselves ruined.. with no skills and no job prospects. |
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02-04-26 spal
| Lots of guys in the basement trading getting liquidated |
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02-04-26 spal
| Causing panic selling of Meme stocks at the moment |
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02-04-26 spal
| Bitcoin now $74,309 ... we see dead bodies soon |
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02-04-26 pillz
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02-04-26 carib
| Pill: cash $, €, or 50/50? |
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02-04-26 pillz
| now , I am 90% in cash, the other 10% is margin for my short calls and puts on jnug, and I don't know what to do with the 90% cash ?? |
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02-04-26 leopardo
I think veny \\ pdvsa still have upside in 2026.
I all depends if it is weighted too much in your portfolio or not.
If not, keep all the position, if yes sell a part...
IMHO |
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02-04-26 pillz
| Koers , it was made at 35,67 USD , the rest is tax + commission |
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02-04-26 carib
Should we join Pill in selling?
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02-04-26 carib
Chinese trading firm Zhongcai Futures has emerged as a big winner from the recent rout in silver, netting more than half a billion dollars from aggressive bets that the metal’s price would fall.
Zhongcai has booked profits of more than Rmb3.6bn ($519mn) since Friday morning after building up short positions in silver in late January, according to FT calculations based on disclosures to the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
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02-04-26 carib
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02-04-26 pillz
| unbelievable it was done at 35.53% :-)) |
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02-04-26 pillz
| ooops , sold it at 35.25 , now not more veny for me .. |
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02-04-26 pillz
| jus had my broker, he had 35, and I have put it at 35.25 till the end of the week .. |
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02-04-26 pillz
| still waiting to my bolero trader , he is in lunch time :-)) |
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02-04-26 pillz
| unbelievable , they have them all, and don't accept an incoming transfer ??? |
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02-04-26 pillz
| but very schmall volume ... |
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02-04-26 pillz
Yes thank you ,,,,
PDVSA Corp 9.0 Nov17'21
PDVSA
TRACE
NT
C35.6500
USD
—
—
Ask
Bid
36.542(n/a) ✕ $5,000K
35.175(n/a) ✕ $127K
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02-04-26 savo
| pillz.. you have IB.... they post accurate prices |
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02-04-26 pillz
| yes I think it is a good selling at 35/35.25 |
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02-04-26 carib
Pill: you should ask someone with a bloomberg terminal for current levels.
my guess would be around 35. |
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02-04-26 pillz
| Carib, bolero said that I can already trade in Frankfurt and OTC, please B/A , or somebody else have the B/A please, thanks in advance |
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02-04-26 pillz
| Carib , have you the b/A of pdvsa 9% 21 ? |
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02-04-26 pillz
gold to go to my ideal price /
5,084.21
+137.17
(+2.77%) |
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02-04-26 panasonic
Edvi, nice to read you.
We are at an early stage.
USA companies getting prepared to go all in, and we got rid of Cuban presence.
Rubio didn't disclose much details during Senate hearing, but when heard Chevron's Wirth abt. Veni made me more comfortable that not everything is as random as it seems.
I'm optimistic on what's coming. |
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