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08-02-26 spal
You can say a defeat in the old sense of bases and "boots on the ground" and perhaps you are meant to see it that way. The is nothing that a great part of the world enjoys more than a good old fashioned US defeat.
What you are increasingly seeing is a strategic pivot.
Certainly close in asymmetric war means that maintaining these bases is not worth the effort. But "stand off" capability remains and will be used.
Let's see what happens with GCC arms sales and how Israel is positioned.
Oil flows are already being rejiggered and of course the overwhelming ME energy clients are Asian.
The game is the same the field and the rules are changing.
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08-02-26 amateur
Iran war looks increasingly directed to a US defeat. Hormuz under some degree of internationally recognized Iranian control. A big retreat from the pre-war status.
And Iran able to resume exports and access to cash to rebuild the
“Anihilation”. |
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08-02-26 pillz
Venezuela Starts US-Backed Talks on Future Democratic Elections
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-01/venezuela-starts-us-backed-talks-on-future-democratic-elections?srnd=homepage-americas |
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08-02-26 victor
Zelensky advierte que los ataques de Rusia están superando a las defensas aéreas: hay 9 muertos
CNN
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El presidente de Ucrania, Volodymyr Zelensky, reiteró el pedido de ayuda a Occidente para reforzar las defensas aéreas tras el letal ataque ruso durante la madrugada, horas después de que el presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, se retractara de su promesa pública de permitir a Ucrania fabricar interceptores Patriot.
Este ataque es el segundo gran asalto aéreo ruso en dos días, con el que el Kremlin aparentemente busca exponer la escasez de sistemas de defensa clave en Kyiv, mientras lucha por avanzar a lo largo de la vasta línea del frente.
Al menos nueve personas murieron y 30 resultaron heridas en el último ataque contra Ucrania, entre ellas cuatro niños. Hubo bombardeos dirigidos contra la capital, Kyiv, y las regiones circundantes, según el alcalde de la ciudad, Vitali Klitschko.
Solo uno de los 27 misiles balísticos lanzados por Rusia fue derribado.
El presidente de Ucrania ha solicitado en repetidas ocasiones a las naciones occidentales que le proporcionen los sistemas de defensa aérea que tanto necesita para proteger las ciudades y la infraestructura crítica del país de los ataques aéreos. Ucrania se enfrenta a una escasez de interceptores Patriot de fabricación estadounidense, el único sistema de defensa capaz de derribar ciertos misiles balísticos avanzados.
Sin embargo, la situación se ha vuelto más desesperada en las últimas semanas, con bombardeos masivos rusos que han cobrado la vida de civiles. A principios de esta semana, las autoridades ucranianas informaron que un misil balístico impactó contra una casa en la aldea rural de Radushne, en la región de Dnipro, matando al menos a seis miembros de una familia, entre ellos cuatro niños.
Tras los ataques nocturnos de este sábado, Zelensky escribió en Telegram: “Carecemos de misiles para los sistemas Patriot. Y es precisamente esta escasez de interceptores antibalísticos lo que anima a Rusia a llevar a cabo ataques tan letales”.
El viernes, Trump dijo que dudaba en permitir que Ucrania construyera sus propios interceptores de misiles Patriot, una idea que anunció por primera vez al margen de una cumbre de la OTAN en Turquía el mes pasado.
“Lo estamos considerando, pero es difícil ceder ese tipo de tecnología”, dijo Trump durante una reunión de gabinete en Camp David. “Tenemos que ser muy cuidadosos”.
Expresó especial preocupación por el riesgo de que Ucrania pudiera usar algún día los interceptores de misiles Patriot contra Estados Unidos, aunque reconoció que es improbable que esto ocurra.
Estas deliberaciones marcan un giro respecto a principios de mes, cuando Trump sugirió durante la cumbre de la OTAN que ayudaría a Ucrania en su lucha contra Rusia permitiéndoles construir los sistemas Patriot.
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08-01-26 savo
as expected...
US gold exports are surging to the highest level on record.
Over the past 2 years, gold exports have surged 5x.
In 5 of the last 8 months, gold was the largest US export.
Imagine the U.S. trade deficit without exporting all that gold.
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2081774645565333546 |
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08-01-26 spal
| Yes ... Leo Aschenbrenner ... Kanarienvogel im Kohlebergwerk |
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08-01-26 carib
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08-01-26 savo
OPENAI IS GOING TO TAKE THIS ENTIRE MARKET DOWN WITH IT
And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt.
What I'm about to explain should worry anybody who thinks they're diversified:
OpenAI is a LOAD-BEARING company. Pull it out and the whole structure comes down.
They spent $17.2 billion on Microsoft Azure in calendar 2025, which is 69% of Microsoft's entire year-over-year growth. Take that one customer out and Azure grew 8%, which barely beats inflation.
Now look at what Microsoft just reported:
The backlog everyone is celebrating came in at $678 billion, up 84%, and the stock ripped. Sounds fantastic until you realize that when you exclude OpenAI the backlog grew only 25%.
Back in January, when that number was $625 billion, roughly $281 billion of it was owed by one private company nobody can audit.
And Oracle is in even WORSE shape.
Something like $300 billion of its backlog, more than half, rides on the same counterparty.
So you think you own Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave, Nvidia and SoftBank?
What you actually own is the same trade 6 different ways, and every leg of it runs back to one company that burns cash and still cannot go public.
The people with real money are already backing out.
Julien Garran pointed out that Masayoshi Son could not get a $10 billion bridge loan against his own OpenAI shares. Think about that for a second, because nobody says no to that man.
Blue Owl walked away from a $10 billion Oracle financing. Three months ago the banks were dancing near the door and now they are walking through it.
Then there is Julien's depreciation work, which makes this even worse:
Run the capex schedule out and hyperscaler net income falls 98% by 2033. To break even they would need to build 20 killer apps inside 6 years. Another Google Search. Another YouTube. Another Office.
They have not built ONE.
If OpenAI cannot go public in the next 8 months, they are dead.
Whenever you see hubris and debt in the same room, run, don't walk.
https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2083286349239513196 |
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