10-18-19 carib
interesting:
FT
How we buy, sell and fund our homes will also be subject to revision by start-ups, both in the UK and the US. Wayhome in the UK, for example, provides a bridge between individual and institutional investors, where home ownership is shared at first and allows for a gradual buyout over time. Buyers put in a deposit of at least 5 per cent and Wayhome’s funding partners top up the remaining 95 per cent. After moving in, rent is set for the part of the home that is not owned and buyers can purchase the rest of the house over time, gradually or in a lump sum.
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10-18-19 carib
| https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1185215551267921920/photo/2 |
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10-18-19 bond
TEVA Refi Timeline
It’s been nerve-wracking as analysts with an OW (since early September) on near term maturities to see other companies settle the Ohio MDL case, but not Teva.
Yesterday, we got the first detailed reports about what a Teva settlement might look like, not just in Ohio but potentially much broader. The reporting by no means assures that Teva will get a “global” resolution; getting plaintiffs’ consensus let alone virtual unanimity will be challenging. But the reports are still favorable for Teva creditors.
Teva’s apparent offer of $15bn of pharma products over 10 years raises the question: what might be the cash costs of providing them? We figure COGS of 40-60% is a reasonable assumption. As an illustration, $1.5bn of product annually with a 50% cash cost would reduce Teva earnings by $750mm/year, a PV of just over $5bn. That’s higher than our assumed $1-3bn for EACH of Teva’s opioid & price-fixing exposures. So less available for the latter, but if a global resolution along these lines can be had, Teva can more readily access the refinancing markets.
Our cash cost assumption % could be too high if a lot of branded product is included in the $15bn, and too low if it’s 100% low-margin generics, but we think 50% is a decent placeholder for creditors to use. |
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10-18-19 bond
| https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelan-guaidos-team-proposed-90-135618600.html |
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10-18-19 panasonic
| taking profits on KHC calls tdy... |
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10-18-19 panasonic
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10-18-19 panasonic
me expected war starting January...got an early start and it sparks
--------------
Trump threatens to sue CNN, seeks "substantial" payment over damages -letter
REUTERS 12:40 PM ET 10/18/2019
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Lawyers for U.S. President Trump and his re-election campaign have threatened to sue CNN for what it said was falsely advertising itself as a news organization, calling on executives to first discuss an "appropriate resolution" to the matter that would include a "substantial" payment to cover damages.
The letter, dated Oct. 16 and made public on Friday, is the latest threat by Trump to sue a media organization over what he sees as unfair media coverage since launching his 2016 presidential campaign, although no lawsuits have been filed. (Reporting by Jan Wolfe and Susan Heavey, Editing by Franklin Paul)
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10-18-19 patient-trader
vote is tomorrow so we'll know very soon.
...
After the vote tomorrow still the actual bill has to be introduced to parliament next week. Then parliament could attach a second referendum to the bill. |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Carib, bottom line we colores need two things
1) beat inflation with acceptable levels of tisk
2) be prepared for the next crisis
(negative rates, deflation, P/E trap etc etc) |
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10-18-19 carib
Panas: it is true that globalisation worked much better for the developing world (the real former poor) and for the cosmopolitan elites (the real winners) rather than for the middle class and lower middle class of the formed "developed world" (the relative loser).
but the idea of closing national borders within the Eu.. is similar to cutting off your balls because you are jealous of your wife...
the real "borders" are the Eu borders, and those should be less open, IMHO.
technology, however, does not actually mind much about borders.
the Uk out of the Eu.. has sense as US poodle.. but little else, I am afraid.
Good luck to Bojo, anyway, if he can indeed make a low tax high wage free trading country. If the weather was better, I would like it! |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Carib, maybe it's part of cycle and people now want to close
borders bcz feels that globalization is not working for them.
Imho other EU countries will watch closely UK process
and use it as test drive. |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Carib, much of those values exported
were of huge importance for corporate
america growth, but now global trade has completely changed shape...big challenge
ahead for or our kids indeed.
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10-18-19 carib
Panas: I agree on that. Information technology is indeed a powerful motor for change.
it allows humans access to exponential growth.. including growth of our shortcomings and worse spirits. Now with google we think we know everything.. but are unable to distinguish between true and false.
Our children will see the next chapter. |
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10-18-19 carib
Panas: easy said.
BoJo "deal" is the same May 'deal" .. but the solution for Ireland has been changed from backstop to stopback.
;-)
Jokes apart.. it is the same deal.. with lots of fudge applied to the irish issue.
suits both sides.
for those who think staying in the EU is still the least bad solution, the option is still unappealing. for those who wanted to break free from all ties.. this is just a change of ties.
but in the end of the day politics is ultimately about compromising. |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Carib, main roll of USA was probably export
democratic values to rest of world and now
that roll being replaced by technology,
disruption of technology can be felt at
all levels and USA can concentrate more in
domestic affairs? me have no clue on how
technology will play but certainly cannot
be stopped |
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10-18-19 panasonic
| thanks Bond on Teva, may do some bonds |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Carib, would need to check draft of deal
to see if works for UK Parliament, but
vote is tomorrow so we'll know very soon. |
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10-18-19 carib
I do not have enough information to bake a bet on the outcome of tomorrow's vote, but my opinion is a vote against the deal is only justified if it accepts in principle, provided a confirmatory referendum is called before ratification.
Otherwise, a vote against the deal motion.. is a final vote for no deal at all, which is not the intention of the opposition.
The motion was made amendable by the Letwin proposal passed yesterday against the government wish. It probably implies the opposition will try to amend, and then approve if the amendment is carried. We shall see how this plays out. |
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10-18-19 carib
Panas: if tomorrow the Uk parliament votes no again, an extension will be granted.
This is just the Eu commission that, understandably, had enough of this eternal merry-go-round.
It is a cliffhanger. |
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10-18-19 carib
Disruption is good.. as long as it leads to something better.
Chavez and Peron looked "disruptive".
a virus also is.
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10-18-19 bond
Panas, ref. TEVA, there is apparently a drug to treat the condition of the sick victims.
ALL pharma cos are under attack, one is BK. Meanwhile 3 want to settle for 15 bio over 10 or so years. Pharma Industry is rallying as bk threat vanishes. But still not over...
TEVA last 7.77 +0.82 (+11.80%) |
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10-18-19 panasonic
EU signs off Boris Johnson's Brexit deal as Juncker warns of no
more extensions
https://www.yahoo.com/news/boris-johnson-brexit-agreement-eu-michel-barnier-094021311.html
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10-18-19 panasonic
Catalunya update
https://www.yahoo.com/news/spanish-government-condemns-violent-protests-222436542.html |
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10-18-19 spal
| Sounds right to me also Panas. |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Spal. fully agree on you oil post, explains eveything...
Needless to say others will take control of those places,
sell oil at 50$ but with much lower production costs that
US frackers, are those profits going to finance democracy?
don't think so...but who cares? |
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10-18-19 panasonic
Spal, it's ok to be neutral...a beer (or two) will help.
I believe "disruptive" has many shades, Lady Gaga fighting for
tolerance has merits, breaks walls...exporting tolerance is not
easy, takes years...decades in places like Middle East, was in
Dubai last year, not easy to change minds but found decent levels
of tolerance there, takes time but achievable.
An elephant in Swarovski shop is also disruptive, but from other
kind...never seen a country doing better out of division and
intolerance, "rich vs poor" included...history will tell. |
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10-18-19 spal
The result is a policy pivot back to a primary focus on great power diplomacy, and not endless, mindless, mini-wars in the Middle East.
and the punch line ...
What is the game changer that almost no one has fully recognized or appreciated? American shale oil and gas. America no longer needs oil and gas from the Middle East.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/america-no-longer-needs-middle-east-67637 |
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10-18-19 spal
“Everybody's got to believe in something. I believe I'll have another beer.”
― W.C. Fields |
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10-18-19 spal
| Life will lull you into believing in countries, nations and things ... |
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10-18-19 spal
| Panas - not necessarily that I would give him 4 more years ... I actually rarely vote (except with my feet or my money), but I do think he will get a second term. |
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10-18-19 spal
| It depends on what you are disrupting. I will probably end up being chased down a rabbit hole in answering this but he is pushing against the concept of "governing" itself - not just in the practical manifestation in the form of regulations or on the larger scale world governance and empire. Honestly for example my view to the border dispute between Syria and Turkey would parallel his. He is also disrupting the mental governance of the liberal Nanny State, Political Correctness and rule by liberal media. He is also disrupting the encroaching grasp and reach for world control of Davosman and the Davos mentality. There is a huge mound of non-productive people right now who are doing nothing but complaining about how hurt they are losing power and digging up pointless crap, allegations and countless investigations. His service is exposing this whole class of people - this is actually their normal modus operandi ... it is just becoming clearer to the average person. So far I am good with it. |
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10-18-19 panasonic
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10-17-19 panasonic
Spal, in your opinion, having a "distruptive" man in W/H is good
or bad for USA? would you feel ok to give him 4 years more?
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10-17-19 spal
what USA needs is a real Republican ... not twitter one
=====
DAN HENNINGER: "DONALD TRUMP IS THE LADY GAGA OF POLITICS"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXA_r6wBIdE
====
This was an op-ed in the WSJ - I remember reading it, but don't subscribe online and the article is behind a paywall. But the YouTube bit capture the essence and I long thought this guy was spot on. |
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10-17-19 panasonic
same country...two stories
Venezuela wins seat on UN rights council
and
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mounting-venezuela-exodus-sparks-fears-040305321.html
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10-17-19 panasonic
"governments tend to continue down the road of ever increasing hunger for revenue"
this is part I miss to understand, why no candidate address this
fact and goes bit deeper...maybe voters switch to less extremist
offers, unless voters are "el perfecto idiota latinoamericano"
that should not apply to 1st world countries....unless. |
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10-17-19 carib
| Amigo: I have actually been in the Caracas country Club, as several other Colores. Have you? not really a 0,01% place, actually. |
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10-17-19 carib
Panas: I would favour less government and less overall taxation, if it was up to me.
I just think that very high rates of income tax are destructive, and actual limits to extreme concentration of wealth can be more effectively put by some taxation of extreme personal wealth, academically speaking.
Problem I see is that in the absence of strong constitutional limitations, once you open the gates of new taxes, governments tend to continue down the road of ever increasing hunger for revenue. |
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10-17-19 amigo-latino
_Caracas Country Club: Where the 0.01% Await Socialism’s Collapse
(Bloomberg) -- There’s a new dress code at the Caracas Country Club.
A sign in the vestibule of the century-old sanctuary of civility and wealth notes that, starting this fall, gentlemen require blazers in the dining room and Penguin Bar, so named for the positively arctic air conditioning. Both ladies and gentlemen are admonished that sneakers and athletic clothes are unacceptable anywhere off the tennis court and gym floor.
Of course, if you’re sipping a rum cocktail on a terra cotta patio near the Hockney-esque swimming pool, or teeing off on the 18-hole golf course or taking a horse out for a canter, the rules are more relaxed. And to be honest, the dress code has been around for decades. It’s just that lately, there’s been slippage. So the board posted the old guidelines and declared them new.
https://news.yahoo.com/caracas-country-club-where-0-100025743.html |
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10-17-19 panasonic
| bond, they will give to them what, free opioids? flu vaccines? |
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10-17-19 Alex
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10-17-19 bond
Panas, they give drugs for free to victims of decade long opioid abuse. If judge accepts is another question. This will continue to be volatile. IMHO the weak hands are out.
Between:
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TEVA)
7.41 +0.46 (+6.62%)
As of 10:13AM EDT. Market open.
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10-17-19 spal
| Shipping moving up across the board ... |
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10-17-19 spal
| NMM ... on the move again |
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10-17-19 amigo-latino
Carib, I do not know if Sander's team studied in depth pros and cons of his proposal.
Or, simply an idea to attract votes? |
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10-17-19 panasonic
| what USA needs is a real Republican ... not twitter one |
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10-17-19 panasonic
Carib, on taxes me agree...
big Q is more taxes for what? high taxes don't create more jobs.
USA Gov. is worst wealth distributor (under Dems even more),
people been paying more and more taxes siphoned by political
class and frontrunners with inside info...inequality continued
growing, so taxes for a better wealth distribution is a myth... |
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10-17-19 spal
A shipping themed ETF has been quietly outperforming as tanker rates surged to record heights amidst a spike in geopolitical uncertainty.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shipping-etf-rallies-increased-geopolitical-120000838.html |
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10-17-19 carib
Opti: I concur with Junker.. the "deal" is viable.
But if the DUP votes against on saturday, and the 20 "spartans" follow the DUP.. BoJo goes down on saturday, and on monday a scottish court will force him to send a letter.
Personally, I prefer we get it over, and move on. This deal is better than no deal for both sides, and in particular for Ireland. |
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10-17-19 carib
Amigo: the "richest" 0,001% taxpayers in the US are about 1500 people, the 0,01% about 15.000.. the 0,1% about 140.000, and the "famous" top 1%.. includes about 1,5 million taxpayers. The big tax revenue jackpot would come from scalping the top 0,1%, who owns a significant portion of total wealth..but taxing at even higher rates the entire 1%, who already pay a large share of total income tax revenue.. would probably destroy the average american ambition to become rich, and cause most very productive people to work less and travel more to tropical islands.
;-) |
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10-17-19 spaldo
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10-17-19 amigo-latino
| _Bernie Sanders plans to hit richest Americans with 97 percent tax rate_ |
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10-17-19 Merlino
https://es.panampost.com/orlando-avendano/2019/10/15/hermann-tertsch-sin-una-amenaza-creible-maduro-jamas-dejara-el-poder/ |
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10-17-19 optimist
| ah, sorry , thought you meant EU deal |
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10-17-19 carib
I now read the actual legal text of the proposed NI protocol.
looks to me as defensible from a UK point of view, and acceptable for the EU provided it is acceptable to the irish republic.
there will inevitably be some smuggling, but given Eu tariffs are already low, no bid deal unless it turns into "industrial scale".
it will be a long process, taking years. in a few years time, the majority of people in NI will have the chance to radically alter the status quo, if that becomes a preferred choice. |
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10-17-19 carib
Opti: no, I mean with DUP.
IMHO it is unlikely , but possible, that an agreement is struck, approved by all relevant constitutional bodies and enters into force in less than two weeks.
It would be more realistic to reach the substance of the agreement now, and move the date to january 1st 2020 to allow the necessary process to take place in reasonable time.
it is still possible Bojo fails to get a majority in the commons, after striking an agreement with the EU, as it happened to Theresa May earlier on, but IMHO he stands a better chance.
BoJo greatest ally has been Jeremy Corbin, who presents a non viable alternative as a person and in term of policies. If Labour had a decent leader, Bojo would have already been history. He can now possibly make a deal and win the following election.. but if he fails on the first and leaves space for Farage on the second, he can lose the second too.
He might also lose Scotland and NI, if Brexit turns out sour.
We shall see, I guess, in the next few days. |
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10-17-19 optimist
| BoJo dire straits? The deal is sealed, free trade with zero tariffs and quotas - is it bad deal for UK? |
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10-17-19 carib
| Both Trump and BoJo in apparent dire straits today.. |
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10-17-19 amigo-latino
_The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York Geoffrey S. Berman has filed fraud and money laundering charges against Turkey's Halkbank amid the escalating row between Ankara and Washington.
Scholars have warned that if the charges lead to sanctions against Turkey's banking system it will hit Turkey's currency and economy hard.
On 15 October, Halkbank, a large Turkish state-owned financial institution, was charged by the Manhattan Federal Court over its alleged participation in a "multibillion-dollar Iranian sanctions evasion scheme."
"As alleged in today’s indictment, Halkbank’s systemic participation in the illicit movement of billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian oil revenue was designed and executed by senior bank officials", US Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman said Tuesday, adding that the bank's conduct was "supported and protected by high-ranking Turkish government officials."
The Turkish state-owned bank was charged with:
· conspiracy to defraud the United States;
· conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA);
· bank fraud;
· conspiracy to commit bank fraud;
· money laundering;
· conspiracy to commit money laundering.
The bank's leadership called the indictment an "unprecedented legal overreach" while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan denounced the US court's decision as "ugly". _ |
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10-17-19 carib
Panas: remember the 2.000 US$ toilet seat covers on the B1 bombers?
:-) |
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10-17-19 panasonic
Carib, Iraq invasion cost was huge..
Libya only two weeks $1.6B after that
smaller incursions...money wise last
decade war bill dropped but still Gov.
needs more dough... why? |
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10-17-19 carib
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10-17-19 carib
| panas: the US has been engaged in wars (after the second WW).. in Korea, Honduras, Vietnam, Panama, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria,Libya, Somalia (and maybe I forgot some) |
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10-17-19 carib
Pill:
:-))
problem is that very negative rates would push people to keep banknotes in safes rather than money in banks. |
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10-17-19 panasonic
Pilly :-)) and XYZ taxes are not enough...
case of USA many years without being engaged in any war,
miltary expenses must have dropped drastically, same as NASA
space projects mostly dead, inequality at record levels...
where is money going? |
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10-17-19 savo
| carib...i hope so... but given maduro is not going anytime soon... i would be very happy of at least Trump the american "people" send into retirement next year. |
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10-17-19 pillz
| Central Banker logic: if negative rates don't seem to be working, the problem isn't that negative rates aren't an effective tool to increase real economic growth, it's that rates just aren't negative enough... /// :-)) |
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10-17-19 carib
I just wish both Maduro and Trump out of office soon.
:-) |
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10-17-19 panasonic
the next shoe to drop = petro
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/maduro-unveils-aggressive-plan-fund-180507451.html |
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10-17-19 savo
good article explaining that Guaido is a dead man walking...hopefully Trump will soon be one too... and veni can go back to normal business.
Todos se preguntan, ¿qué va a pasar en Venezuela tras el fin del tono y la política beligerante del gobierno estadounidense?
A solo un par de meses del final del año y tras el bluff intentado contra el régimen de Nicolás Maduro con una amenaza que nunca fue creíble, es evidente que el susto que pretendían se revirtió cohesionando al régimen. Si en vez de tanto asesor de garra hubieran consultado a cualquier transeúnte de Hialeah, habrían comprendido que eso era precisamente lo que necesitaba toda revolución para realizarse, ante un chavismo que en diciembre lo veían caído por mérito propio.
Pero lamentablemente el bluff donde sí funcionó fue en la oposición donde tuvo efectos devastadores, pues a la eterna división entre el sector sospechoso que quiere negociar una cohabitación y la oposición democrática, ahora se añadió otra en el núcleo principal dividiéndose entre quienes creían posible la invasión y quienes sabían que no ocurriría, acusándose mutuamente pero en especial, por no saber como efectuar el llamado a una intervención extranjera.
Mientras esto ocurría, los errores cometidos por la oposición debilitaron por completo su imagen en el seno de la Fuerza Armada y tras las incongruencias de la negociación posterior, después de decir durante meses que nunca se harían, a Maduro solo le bastó una reunión conjunta de militares, explicándoles que Guaidó estaba siendo negociado como alguien temporal, para que en un país extremadamente presidencialista y con la imagen de un “Comandante en Jefe” fuerte, todos bajaran la guardia.
Acceso digital ilimitado: solamente 99 centavos el primer mes
A tales fines y como nadie regala manzanas al maestro sustituto o temporal, mucho menos los oficiales acuden al llamado de un líder transitorio. En fin todos dijeron “cuando venga el presidente definitivo hablamos”.
Y así, del amenazante “todas las opciones sobre la mesa” pasamos al “John Bolton se pasó bastante de la raya con Venezuela” y ante el silencio y la inacción posterior, tácitamente se dejó colar la aceptación de que el asunto “no tiene solución a corto plazo”.
Con esto la posición estadounidense se alía con sus pares europeos, mientras el régimen que ya cuenta con México, en breve lo hará también con Argentina, Rafael Correa pide las elecciones adelantadas en un Ecuador que arde en llamas, nadie sabe que puede ocurrir en Perú, mientras los gobiernos de derecha comienzan a debilitarse y Venezuela podría estar pasando a ser el menor de sus problemas.
La realidad es que el régimen logró quedar en pie tras el huracán Trump y ahora emerge para los suyos como ganador contra el “imperialismo” -el mismo transeúnte de Hialeah les diría que les hicieron el favor de la vida- aguardan con ansias el impeachment o que ganen los demócratas y vuelva el deshielo a Cuba, con lo que esperan sean favorecidos indirectamente si empiezan a portarse un poco mejor.
De allí a la ofensiva que vemos. Del “escandaloso informe Bachelet” lo que queda es la cooperación en materia de derechos humanos entre ella y el régimen. Vuelven a la Asamblea Nacional, no por estar derrotados, sino como estrategia para darle legitimidad a un llamado a elecciones que ya lucen más que evidentes, las del mismo legislativo, en el cual se darán condiciones a sabiendas que la oposición no cuenta con millones de votos en el exterior y el desánimo y las condiciones propias internas por las divisiones —que serán una batalla campal— la harán inviable, fomentándose una masiva abstención.
Posiblemente veamos una nueva división de la oposición que puede acudir a las elecciones si les dan algunas condiciones objetivas, un nuevo CNE que “convenza”, con observadores internacionales europeos, la salida de algunos presos políticos de las cárceles, pero habiendo quedado la oposición sumamente debilitada, desacreditada y con su líder siendo negociado en las mesas internacionales, el tiempo es su peor enemigo, pues lo único que crece día por día es la desesperanza y la tristeza, convirtiendo al venezolano en un superviviente y sin cabeza para pensar en política o acudir a elecciones.
Lo que pretende el régimen es más que obvio. Las últimas encuestas reflejan que el líder opositor bajó 20 puntos y su gestión es mala para casi el 60% de los venezolanos y se prevé que alcance su peor evaluación entre diciembre y enero. Lo que pretende el régimen a partir de allí es quitarle lo único que le queda, su legitimidad, pues en ese escenario de elecciones con garantías y validadas por Europa, Venezuela podría amanecer distinta en el primer trimestre del 2020.
Hacia esa misma trampa de siempre, si no ocurre un milagro, se dirigen todos. Mientras millones retoman su idea de marcharse, la crisis ya convertida en un auténtico bloqueo en el 2020 hará imposible vivir y más dependientes de un régimen que piensa que lo peor de la tormenta ha pasado.
Los venezolanos necesitan que la oposición rescate la esperanza de enero y defina una estrategia urgente de cara al drama que viene, mucho peor al que se sufre hoy. Luego, debe dejar de subestimar a su adversario como si estuviera vencido y trabajar sin pensar que estamos en el ojo del huracán Trump.
Thays Peñalver es una abogada, escritora y columnista. Autora de “La conspiración de los 12 golpes”, un libro que desnuda la realidad de las Fuerzas Armadas de Venezuela y al mito de Hugo Chávez Frías. Twitter: @thayspenalver.
Read more here: https://www.elnuevoherald.com/opinion-es/opin-col-blogs/opinion-sobre-venezuela/article236093683.html#storylink=cpy |
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