07-13-25 spal
OPEC ticked up its forecast, projecting oil demand will reach 113.3M bbl/day in 2030 and nearly 123M bbl/day in 2050, up from 103.7M bbl/day last year, underpinned by expectations of robust population and economic growth.
OPEC believes oil will continue to play a critical role in meeting demand, with oil projected to maintain the largest share in the global energy mix in 2050 at ~30%, which grows to more than 50% when combined with gas.
"Oil underpins the global economy and is central to our daily lives," OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said in the foreword to the report. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon." |
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07-12-25 panasonic
Pilly, I'll post a specific example when I'm in my computer to give exact details.
Call spreads are good for long-term calls. My biggest one is nvda bcz had the opportunity to roll it many times after it was split.
3x are only for day trade, or very short term calls/puts not for long-term. |
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07-12-25 panasonic
| Savo, agree me also take some high yielders with good stories, like we did with Prov. Buenos Aires, in amounts that won't keep awake at night. |
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07-12-25 carib
| Savo sold his PDVsa bonds? |
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07-12-25 savo
A Concentration Camp in the Florida Swampland
In a remote patch of the Everglades, on the site of an airstrip once used to train pilots, the U.S. government erected a new “detention center” in just eight days. It holds 1,000 beds inside chain-link cages, housed in massive tents surrounded by 8,500 meters of barbed wire, 400 guards, hundreds of surveillance cameras—and the presence of alligators, snakes, disease-carrying mosquitoes, and brutal heat.
An actual gulag, in one of the most inhospitable regions of the United States—just 80 kilometers west of Miami.
Officially named Alligator Alcatraz, the facility is designed to hold thousands of immigrants detained as part of the Trump administration’s mass deportation campaign. It’s intended for “the most menacing migrants, the most vicious people on the planet,” in Trump’s own words. The president attended the camp’s inauguration on July 1st, alongside Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Trump joked that detainees would be taught how to evade alligators if they tried to escape while making a zigzag motion with his hand to illustrate.
The first group of detainees arrived two days later, reportedly to be held until deportation, according to the Associated Press.
MAGA activist Laura Loomer—who has recently supported normalizing relations with the Maduro regime—tweeted that “alligators are guaranteed at least 65 million meals if we get started now,” referring to the Latino population in the States.
Venezuelan churro franchise Churromania faced backlash after sending food trucks to the site’s opening. The company later issued a statement claiming it was not an event they support, adding that they have no political agenda and stand for “joy, inclusion, and real impact.” Cuban-American-owned Elote Lovers was also hired to provide food for the inauguration. Yes, the kind of businesses whose Latino staff have been disproportionately targeted by ICE operations and anti-immigrant propaganda in recent months.
Alligator Alcatraz is not about safety or the rule of law. It’s about terror, about creating a spectacle of fear for U.S. audiences by publicly broadcasting the cruel internment of civil detainees: groups of immigrants, which will likely include Venezuelans soon.
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07-12-25 savo
pana.. since i woke up tho the fact that the devil resides in DC.. and that the game is rigged .. my appetite for risk and for volatility has gone to zero.
As a consequence I built a portfolio of bonds that contains 111 bonds from 25 different countries excluding veni.
The only high risk bets that I have are argie, ecuador and bolivia. In the case of bolivia even if it goes bad I am going to be ok... but I like the story. Only two bonds. Elections coming. First amort on march 2026. I am not counting on receiving that payment but I do not expect a default either. If it happens, I can manage.
I understand that bonds are the opposite of sexy these days... but I just want to keep that flag up here in Colores. |
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07-12-25 pillz
Case of calls spreads down side is limited to premium paid, besides good quality paper giving yields we haven't seen for years.
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Pana , can you give some example of call spreads , thank you
and where are the risk to loose and gain ?? |
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07-12-25 panasonic
Carib, agree we only get to choose who we want to have our data
i.e: if my bank starts using Chinese data center I'm out. |
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07-12-25 victor
| 30% tariffs to the eu and mexico |
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07-12-25 victor
| Because of the fact that Rosie O’Donnell is not in the best interests of our Great Country, I am giving serious consideration to taking away her Citizenship. She is a Threat to Humanity, and should remain in the wonderful Country of Ireland, if they want her. GOD BLESS AMERICA! |
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07-12-25 victor
keeping digital data entirely private, with 0 hacking risk, is increasingly challenging.
right |
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07-12-25 carib
Panas: my take is that, ultimately, every digital data is public.
Concerning cars, they have to update software, and thus have a link to their factory.
If you do not connect your phone to the car, I think it has no access to your phone data.
But in the end of the day, keeping digital data entirely private, with 0 hacking risk, is increasingly challenging.
For a european, it is not easy to decide if Trump is more or less of a threat than Xi. |
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07-12-25 panasonic
Savo, my risk appetite decreased a lot with age, how much can I lose in one bad trade more important than how much I can make.
Case of calls spreads down side is limited to premium paid, besides good quality paper giving yields we haven't seen for years. |
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07-12-25 savo
SOXX does not seem to have had a great year...
1 Year return -4.12%
i guess the trick is to multiply using options..etc..
5 Year return +162% (20% p.a) that one is very good.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/
boring Bolivia 28 on the other hand has done a 56 to 74 in the meantime... plus coupon.
let's see if they go into a Milei Moment after the election...
first round 17 of August to avoid a second round winner needs 50% of the votes or 40% with a 10% margin over the second one.
Second round 20 October.
If there is no first round right winner we may see the same reaction that they had in Ecuador when they had to go to a second round. Bonds dropped 20 points. Once Noboa won the second round bonds went up 30 points.
as spal says.. Bolivia need to drop the peg and I would say cancel subsidies too. |
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07-12-25 panasonic
| Pilly, when big drop happens 3x fall sharply and recover at slower pace vs 1X so March was very bad for Soxl, that was the perfect time to sell the put (or call spreads if want limited downside). |
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07-12-25 pillz
| with TQQQ , i sold short putas 75 and i am in a big gain , but i will short calls on SOXL as I think it will stay the same or go down ... |
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07-12-25 pillz
| on yahoo graph they are not down , but YTD no up and not down , but semi conductors are up big way YTD |
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07-12-25 pillz
ETF Summary
The fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments, such as swap agreements, securities of the index, and ETFs that track the index, that, in combination, provide 3X daily leveraged exposure to the index, consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index is a rules-based, modified float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies. The fund is non-diversified.
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ETF Overview
Category Trading--Leveraged Equity
Fund Family Direxion Funds
Net Assets 10.81B
YTD Daily Total Return -24.41%
Yield 2.17%
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
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you see as I thought the semi conductors are up this year and this ETF is down :-) |
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07-12-25 pillz
| it's already on my watch list , now really good night ... |
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07-12-25 pillz
sell short calls Jan 26 strike 25 at 7.5$
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sorry hope to do it at 8$ |
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07-12-25 spal
and second i think semiconductors will no go higher then today ...
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Thanks for your view Pilly. I would not bet against you. |
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07-12-25 spal
no moore no less than trading sardines.
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Yes - very true.
I can't wait for this to collapse. I think the trigger will be when I change my mind and become a crypto/ bitcoin advocate.
But honestly these tech bros who think they are economic genius now are really getting hard to take.
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07-12-25 pillz
| with 72M traded it could be very interesting ... |
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07-12-25 pillz
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL)
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it could be interesting to sell short calls Jan 26 strike 25 at 7.5$ , and that for trading , for 2 reasons , first with bull 3x
there are a lot of expenses , and second i think semiconductors will no go higher then today ...
good night , we will see it next week ... |
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07-12-25 pillz
premiums are very expensive.
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interesting Pana , if premiums are expensive one must short them, I will check it next week :-) |
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07-12-25 panasonic
Spal, me try to achieve weekly goals, keeps my mind active.
This week it has been all abt. cryptos, interesting how now all big financial players are building crypto portfolios, so demand is growing at bigger pace than mining, no moore no less than trading sardines. |
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07-12-25 panasonic
Carib, it's a matter of personal choice, once you grant access to your info.
Things you access from your device, do you have sensible data in your emails, for example. |
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07-12-25 panasonic
| Savo, SOXL is 3x on semis,good for day trading or short term calls like one week max. 2 weeks, premiums are very expensive. |
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07-12-25 carib
Panas: one of my cars is chinese. Why should I care if the car (fossile, not electric) sends some data back to China?
My Tesla (sold two years ago after seven years of good service) sent data back to the USA. again.. why should I care? |
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07-12-25 spal
it is impossible to believe that in a world that assets go up every year by 10 to 30% cpi inflation is at 2%.
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Part - the main part - of the reason is that "technology" (across the board ... and it really borders on magic) has brought a continual growing mass of borderline middle class aspirants on line (globally) whereas at the core the sum total of available productive assets does not keep pace.
It is easy to me to see why the "number go up". |
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07-12-25 pillz
| DT may not fire Jerome Powell ... till the end of his mandate , I think it is JUNE 2026 |
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07-12-25 savo
"I'm encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. I think this will be the right decision for America,
a clueless ignorant...this guy should have never been anything more than an M&A lawyer... i do not understand how he could have become fed chairman.
Having said that his problem is the opposite as what the market says...
rates are too low...it is impossible to believe that in a world that assets go up every year by 10 to 30% cpi inflation is at 2%. |
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07-12-25 savo
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07-12-25 pillz
| Historically, when the S&P 500 has surged more than 20% in two months or less — as it did in the second quarter — it has consistently been higher a year later in all 10 prior instances, with an average gain greater than 15%, Hackett said. Meantime, volatility has collapsed, with the VIX falling below 16 earlier this week - while finishing slightly above that mark on Friday. |
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