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04-03-25 carib
| Pill: I just observe that in the last 3 months holders of R$ gained some 13% over holders of US$, given interest rates differentials and FX moves. |
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04-03-25 carib
I agree with SPAL observation.. concerning the core MAGA supporters, probably.
I did not look at the details (% of voters) of the last two florida by-elections.
Maybe worth a look. |
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04-03-25 carib
| Capital usually votes by moving, if it does not manage to determine the vote outcome. |
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04-03-25 spal
| 401k's not worth a pinch of shit ... that in part is why they voted for Trump. |
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04-03-25 spal
Conclusion if you want to jump straight there:
A speculative average for Trump voters with 401(k)s might range from $45,000 to $65,000, with a median closer to $35,000–$40,000 due to the heavy blue-collar skew. Only about 40%–45% of his voters likely have 401(k)s, with union and blue-collar subsets varying as noted.
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04-03-25 spal
BUT keep their 401k intact...knock knock.
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Their 401k balances are not meaningful Panas.
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Estimating the 401(k) balances of Donald Trump voters, particularly with a focus on union workers and blue-collar workers, requires some speculative leaps since no direct, comprehensive data ties voting behavior to retirement account balances. However, I can piece together a rough framework using available economic and demographic trends, voter profiles, and retirement savings statistics as of April 3, 2025. This will be a high-level, speculative exercise based on general patterns rather than precise figures, as exact data linking 401(k) balances to specific voter groups isn’t publicly available.
General Approach
To start, let’s consider the broader population of Trump voters and then narrow it down to cohorts like union workers and blue-collar workers. I’ll use:
Voter demographics from recent elections (e.g., 2020 and 2024 exit polls).
401(k) participation and balance trends from sources like the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) and Fidelity Investments’ reports, adjusted for inflation and market performance up to 2025.
Economic characteristics of Trump voter groups, focusing on income, education, and occupation.
Step 1: Trump Voter Profile
In 2024, Trump won a significant share of working-class voters (those without college degrees), with exit polls suggesting 56% of non-college-educated voters supported him compared to 42% for Harris. This group includes many blue-collar and union workers. Additionally:
53% of Trump voters in the workforce identified as blue-collar or service workers (per Economic Innovation Group, 2024).
Union households (about 20% of voters) leaned toward Trump more than in prior elections, with Harris winning them by only 8 points (53% to 45%) compared to Biden’s 16-point margin in 2020.
Trump’s base skews male (nearly 60% of his voting workers), less educated (39% with college degrees vs. 47% for Harris voters), and rural (24% vs. 16% for Harris voters).
Step 2: 401(k) Participation and Balances
The average 401(k) balance varies widely by age, income, and occupation. According to Fidelity’s Q1 2025 data (assuming modest growth from 2024), the average 401(k) balance across all participants is around $125,000–$130,000, reflecting a strong market recovery since 2020. However:
Participation is lower among blue-collar and lower-income workers (only about 43% of Americans have a 401(k), per 2020 SCF data).
Balances for those with accounts are skewed upward by higher earners; the median balance is closer to $35,000–$40,000, better reflecting typical workers.
Non-college-educated and blue-collar workers tend to have lower savings due to lower wages and less access to employer-sponsored plans.
Step 3: Speculative Cohorts
Let’s break Trump voters into rough cohorts and estimate their 401(k) balances:
1. Overall Trump Voters
Assumption: A mix of blue-collar, white-collar, and self-employed individuals, with incomes averaging $50,000–$75,000 (slightly below the national median of $66,000 in 2020, adjusted to ~$75,000 by 2025).
Participation: Around 40%–50% have 401(k)s, reflecting a working-class tilt but including some higher earners.
Speculative Average Balance: $50,000–$70,000. This is below the national average due to lower participation and income but buoyed by market gains since Trump’s first term.
2. Blue-Collar Trump Voters
Profile: 53% of Trump’s workforce voters are blue-collar (construction, manufacturing, service jobs). These workers often earn $40,000–$60,000 annually, with less access to 401(k) plans (participation ~30%–40%).
Economic Context: Wage growth has been strong for this group since 2016 (up 16% for lower earners by 2020, per Trump claims), but savings lag due to living costs and debt.
Speculative Average Balance: $30,000–$50,000 for those with accounts. Many lack 401(k)s entirely, relying instead on Social Security or personal savings.
3. Union Workers Who Voted for Trump
Profile: Union households shifted toward Trump in 2024, with non-college-educated White union men favoring him by 29 points (per VoteCast). Union jobs (e.g., manufacturing, trades) offer better benefits, including 401(k)s, than non-union blue-collar roles.
Participation: Higher than non-union blue-collar workers, likely 50%–60%, due to negotiated benefits.
Speculative Average Balance: $60,000–$80,000. Union workers’ higher wages (e.g., 25% raises from UAW strikes in 2023) and benefits suggest slightly better savings, though still below white-collar averages.
4. Rural Trump Voters
Profile: 24% of Trump’s workforce voters live in small towns or rural areas, often overlapping with blue-collar roles. Incomes are lower (e.g., $40,000–$55,000), and 401(k) access is limited.
Speculative Average Balance: $25,000–$40,000. Lower participation (~30%) and income constrain savings, despite some market gains.
Step 4: Rough Aggregate Estimate
Combining these cohorts, weighted by their likely share of Trump’s base:
Blue-collar workers (~50% of voters): $30,000–$50,000.
Union workers (~15%–20% of voters): $60,000–$80,000.
Other (white-collar, rural, etc., ~30%–35%): $40,000–$60,000.
A speculative average for Trump voters with 401(k)s might range from $45,000 to $65,000, with a median closer to $35,000–$40,000 due to the heavy blue-collar skew. Only about 40%–45% of his voters likely have 401(k)s, with union and blue-collar subsets varying as noted.
Caveats
Data Gaps: No direct 401(k) data by voter preference exists; this relies on proxies like income and occupation.
Variability: Balances depend heavily on age (e.g., older workers near retirement have $200,000+), market performance, and contribution rates.
Union Nuance: Trump-friendly union workers (e.g., trades) may differ from Harris-leaning ones (e.g., public sector), affecting savings.
This is a rough, educated guess—think of it as a starting point rather than a definitive number. For union and blue-collar Trump voters specifically, their balances likely sit below the national average but above the lowest-income groups, reflecting modest but constrained retirement preparedness. |
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04-03-25 panasonic
What comes next is above my pay level, DT followers want to reduce debt, close borders BUT keep their 401k intact...knock knock.
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04-03-25 pillz
“I think it’s going very well,” Trump, asked about the market reaction, told reporters.
“You’ve never seen anything like it. The markets are going to boom. The stock is going to boom. The country is going to boom.” |
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04-03-25 spal
Md Badrul Hasan
@MdBadrulHasan16
·
16h
🇺🇸⚡️- Trump Administration may have used AI models to calculate its new tariff policy.
LLM's such as Gemini 2.5, Grok, 4o, and o3 high give eerily similar answers to the Trump policies when asked how to easily fix trade deficits with specific countries. |
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04-03-25 spal
Savo:
https://x.com/MdBadrulHasan16/status/1907614208373698659 |
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04-03-25 spal
| Savo - the trade policy was set by Grok. This is a theory that is fast gaining strength. In other words they left it to AI. I am afraid I am not kidding here. |
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04-03-25 spal
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04-03-25 savo
As President Trump’s proclaimed “Liberation Day” arrives, it presents an opportune moment to revisit old history books for the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, a pivotal chapter in trade history that economists often cite as
the catalyst for the "Mother of all trade wars." Smoot-Hawley intended to be a response to the struggles of U.S. farmers, who, after expanding production during World War I, faced plummeting prices once European markets reopened.
Despite widespread opposition from over 1,000 economists, President Hoover signed the bill, raising tariffs on foreign imports by 20-25%. This legislation extended beyond agriculture, impacting all sectors and raising the average tariff on imports to nearly 60% by 1932. The act significantly curtailed global trade and, according to many experts, deepened the Great Depression. It was a classic example of beggar-thy-neighbour policies, in which the U.S. prioritized its own interests at the expense of international trade relations. In retaliation, nine countries, including Canada and Mexico, imposed their own tariffs on U.S. goods, triggering a global economic slowdown.
The fallout was severe, between 1929 and 1933, U.S. GDP shrank by nearly 30%, US exports significantly contracted, unemployment soared to 25%, and global trade plummeted as nations formed trade blocs that excluded the U.S. The repercussions were felt long after, contributing to the electoral loss of the Republicans in 1933. Drawing parallels to Trump’s current tariff strategy, many analysts see echoes of Smoot Hawley, but with a key difference: while the 1930s tariffs were mainly intended to protect domestic economies, Trump also views tariffs as a negotiation tool aimed at securing geopolitical concessions.
Furthermore, today’s global economy is far more integrated, with complex supply chains spanning multiple countries, particularly between the U.S. and Canada, making the consequences of tariff wars potentially more disruptive. The issue is especially acute in U.S. manufacturing, where labor shortages are compounded by tightening immigration policies, creating risks for industries reliant on foreign production.
Whether this escalates into a full-blown trade war, as with the Smoot-Hawley Act, hinges on the responses of other nations and whether Trump is using tariffs only as leverage for diplomatic concessions. In any case, the global economy now functions like an intricately synchronized machine, and tariffs throw a spanner in the works into this delicate balance. The potential for
history to repeat itself remains a pressing concern as the governments do not seem to learn from their past
mistakes.
In the Americas, Mexico, Costa Rica, Haiti, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Panama, and Chile are navigating escalating trade tensions, diplomatic rifts, security crises, geopolitical maneuvering, major infrastructure investments, economic stabilization efforts, industrial slowdowns, export shifts, strategic acquisitions, and global resource deals...
In Asia, China, Mongolia, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives are seeing signs of manufacturing recovery, shifting precious metals markets, central bank leadership changes, tariff disputes, widening fiscal deficits, rising tourism and debt restructuring, and strategic food export agreements...
In EMEA, Georgia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and Ukraine face weakening manufacturing sector, controversial budget passage and slow economic growth…
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04-03-25 savo
spal.. you will like this one...
https://x.com/geiger_capital/status/1907568233239949431 |
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04-03-25 pillz
France's Macron calls for suspension of investment in US after tariffs
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China did the same this morning , but in France it is a call , not like China , in China it is an order :-) |
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04-03-25 spal
spal, :-)) you'll see how quickly canada becomes a target for taxes
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Well you are in part right to follow the money. |
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04-03-25 victor
| France's Macron calls for suspension of investment in US after tariffs |
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04-03-25 victor
pana, at the end of the day, it's pretty good news that oil is dropping.
maybe we'll see oil below $20?
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04-03-25 victor
| spal, :-)) you'll see how quickly canada becomes a target for taxes, once it becomes obvious there is a 0% chance of canadians' willingness to be annexed.. maybe a few months after the canadian elections. |
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04-03-25 spal
| Mexico is already annexed - de facto |
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04-03-25 spal
but mike johnson already said he wont bring it up in the house..
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Making it entirely symbolic and not serious. |
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04-03-25 victor
spal, Canada is ... not a target (despite the headlines) for tariffs ... it is a target for annexation.
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if so, then mexico is neither a target for tariffs nor annexation :-) |
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04-03-25 pillz
The US stock market is down almost 10% since Trump’s inauguration, marking the worst 10-week start under a new president since George W. Bush in 2001 during the height of the dot-com selloff.
The S&P 500 Index is virtually in a correction over the 52 trading sessions since Trump took the oath of office Jan. 20. More than $3 trillion has been erased from the index’s value over that stretch. That’s worse than the start to the prior five administrations, only exceeded by the roughly 18% drop in Bush’s first term. |
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04-03-25 victor
pill, 4 republicans voted with the dems, and passed it..
but mike johnson already said he wont bring it up in the house.. |
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04-03-25 pillz
Mitch McConnell, the Republicans’ former Senate leader, reiterated his opposition to broad-based tariffs in a post on X. Yesterday, he voted for a Democratic resolution against Trump’s earlier levies on Canada.
McConnell, who isn’t running for reelection next year, said:
“Preserving the long-term prosperity of American industry and workers requires working with our allies, not against them. With so much at stake globally, the last thing we need is to pick fights with the very friends with whom we should be working with to protect against China’s predatory and unfair trade practices. That includes what we do on trade.” |
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04-03-25 spal
| Canada is ... not a target (despite the headlines) for tariffs ... it is a target for annexation. |
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04-03-25 spal
On April 2, 2025, the U.S. launched a tariff strategy that positions the Western Hemisphere under the USMCA, as an economic stronghold while targeting Asia with trade barriers.
This gambit seeks to redirect production, cut trade deficits, and bolster manufacturing, with significant implications for the U.S. tech industry, a $1.8 trillion sector reliant on global supply chains.
The tariffs—China (34%, atop existing duties), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (24%), and India (26%)—contrast sharply with USMCA exemptions for Mexico and Canada, and a 10% baseline for Latin America. This makes Asian tech imports costlier: a $100 chip from Taiwan jumps to $132, while Mexico’s stays at $100. The U.S. tech industry, sourcing 80% of semiconductors from Asia (e.g., TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung in South Korea), faces pressure.
Under the USMCA, Mexico and Canada become attractive alternatives. Mexico’s $228 billion auto sector, increasingly tech-heavy with EV components, could expand into electronics assembly, leveraging its $3-$5/hour labor versus Vietnam’s $2-$3 plus 46% tariff. Canada’s $680 billion trade, including tech inputs like rare earths, benefits from zero tariffs. The USMCA’s 75% North American content rule incentivizes regional tech production—think Tesla shifting battery parts from China to Mexico. Latin America might host ancillary tech manufacturing, like circuit boards, at lower costs.
The strategy aims to shrink the $1 trillion trade deficit and revive U.S. manufacturing. Tech, with $200 billion in Asian imports (2023), is key—34% tariffs on China could slash its $100 billion share, redirecting demand to USMCA partners. Domestic tech firms like Intel or Nvidia gain as Asian components rise in price, though the 10% baseline tariff on non-USMCA inputs (e.g., rare earths) slightly offsets this. Still, the U.S. lacks capacity to fully replace Asia’s chip output—TSMC’s Arizona plant won’t scale until 2028.
For tech, this is a double-edged sword. Nearshoring cuts supply chain risks—Mexico’s 2-3 day shipping beats China’s 30+—but raises costs short-term. A 46% tariff on Vietnam’s cables or Taiwan’s chips could add $20 billion annually to tech firms’ bills, per SIA estimates, hiking consumer prices (e.g., iPhones up $100). Retaliation looms: China’s rare earth export curbs (90% of U.S. supply) or Europe’s 200% tech tariffs could disrupt $150 billion in U.S. exports.
The USMCA anchors a hemispheric bloc, shielding North America while punishing Asia.
This gambit uses the USMCA to reorient tech supply chains, betting on regional resilience over Asian reliance. Success depends on tech’s adaptability and weathering global pushback.
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04-03-25 pillz
| thanks Carib ,, -3% in Euro term |
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04-03-25 carib
Pill: my initial observation is that paradoxically Brasil appears now more predictable than the USA.
It remains messy,but this is a given, and compensated by very high real interest rates, which are a constant bonanza for the local banks.
If UST bonds pay 3%, inflation is 3% and the US$ loses 3% .. what is the real yield? |
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04-03-25 victor
| Canadá anuncia aranceles del 25% a automóviles importados por EE.UU. que no cumplan el acuerdo de libre comercio |
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04-03-25 spal
| Oil corrected nastily ... whereas natural gas price rose. |
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04-03-25 victor
should dt be impeached immediately, based on what he said in 2012? :-))
https://x.com/xaexsenzos/status/1907793732394451203
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04-03-25 spal
UMH
UMH PPTYS INC REIT
... one of my only green positions today.
Mobile homes and mobile home parks. Going to get more popular one would think (regrettably). |
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04-03-25 panasonic
| EU preparing to retaliate, a stronger Euro won't help :-( |
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04-03-25 panasonic
If China retaliates, we are in for a bigger drop, casino owners are used to place all-in bets.
Those supporters with 401ks are happy to join casino bets? Don't think so. |
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04-03-25 pillz
My question is how Brasil will fare in the new environment, with rates @15%.
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Carib , you must tell us, you are the specialist of Brasil ...:-) |
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04-03-25 victor
BEIJING (Reuters) - Global ratings agency Fitch on Thursday downgraded China's sovereign credit rating, citing expectations of a continued weakening of public finances and rapidly rising debt.
The downgrade came a day after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners, with China among the hardest-hit, though Fitch said his move had not yet been incorporated into its forecasts.
Fitch cut China's long-term foreign currency rating by one notch to "A" from "A+", one year after it downgraded its outlook on China's credit rating.
"The downgrade reflects our expectations of a continued weakening of China's public finances and a rapidly rising public debt trajectory during the country's economic transition," Fitch said in a statement.
"We expect the government debt/GDP to continue its sharp upward trend over the next few years, driven by these high deficits, ongoing crystallisation of contingent liabilities and subdued nominal GDP growth."
Fitch expects China's general government deficit to rise to 8.4% of GDP in 2025, from 6.5% in 2024.
China will have to sustain fiscal stimulus to support growth amid subdued domestic demand, rising tariffs and deflationary pressures, which will keep fiscal gaps high, it said.
In April 2024, Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.
China's finance ministry said in a statement that Beijing "deeply" regrets and does not recognise Fitch downgrading, adding that the decision "is biased and cannot fully and objectively reflect the actual situation in China". |
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04-03-25 carib
Pill: if European RE goes well.. fine for me, given my assets..
My question is how Brasil will fare in the new environment, with rates @15%. |
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04-03-25 spal
| Russell Index sold harder then Nasdaq ... panic selling |
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04-03-25 spal
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04-03-25 spal
| So far my rats and mice portfolio is doing 50% better than the averages ... meaning that froth will be taken out of the market. |
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04-03-25 pillz
| Apple Shares Fall 8.5%, Erasing $255 Billion in Value |
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04-03-25 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
Brazil Natural Gas ... holding firm ... |
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04-03-25 spal
| Futures and premarket ... ugly |
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04-03-25 panasonic
| Spal, will do calls on nvo, don't plan to risk nothing above a premium...any EU response could trigger tariffs on "everything". |
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04-03-25 panasonic
| Pilly yes, european reits good place to hide. |
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04-03-25 spal
Drugmakers
NVO ... I hope |
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04-03-25 pillz
French President Emmanuel Macron believes the EU should be ready to respond with options such as targeting US tech and services, the people say. France wants a negotiated solution but is also pushing for a tougher response.
French government spokeswoman Sophie Primas said on RTL radio earlier Thursday that the European Commission, which handles trade matters for the EU, could apply a digital services tax on US companies by the end of April. The US has a services trade surplus with the bloc and such a move would likely exacerbate tensions with Trump. |
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04-03-25 pillz
| Drugmakers, meanwhile, are outperforming after Trump spared pharma products from reciprocal tariffs. GSK, AstraZeneca and Novartis are all rising. |
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04-03-25 pillz
Believe it or not, there are some winning stocks today. Notably, a drop in bond yields due to demand for havens is lifting debt-laden real estate companies. German property group Vonovia is the Stoxx Europe 600’s best performer, up about 6%.
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04-03-25 pillz
| the Zeulo is also up big way... |
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04-03-25 pillz
no safe haven
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yes European RE are up about 4 to 5% today :-)) |
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04-03-25 panasonic
Futures off big time, no safe haven.
Trump's support imploding in social media.
Will he create jobs (other than immigrants will vacant), me doubt. |
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04-02-25 pillz
| https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/ |
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04-02-25 panasonic
Susan Crawford wins Wisconsin Supreme Court race, defying Elon Musk
Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna198353 |
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04-02-25 panasonic
Vic, transformation is huge, and AI will make it even more drastic.
Trump defeated main stream media using social media campaign, historic.
The offer: USA can close borders and live in a safe and prosperous country...can be done? Have no idea, voters decided to go for it.
How it will play, only God knows.
Me, I prefer center..and less dramatic swings in power. |
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04-02-25 spal
n my op, dt doesnt favor anyone but himself. and uses everybody else.
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Yes, but he loves surrounding himself with rich people and he craves their adoration. |
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04-02-25 victor
spal..One of things I suspect is that Trump overly favors big tech.
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in my op, dt doesnt favor anyone but himself. and uses everybody else.
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Trump comunica a su círculo que Musk abandonará pronto su rol en el gobierno, según 'Politico'
El papel de Elon Musk al frente del Departamento de Eficiencia Gubernamental (DOGE) puede estar llegando a su fin. Según informa en exclusiva el medio Politico, Donald Trump habría comunicado a su círculo íntimo que apartará al hombre más rico del mundo de su rol como “empleado especial del gobierno”, un cargo que le ha evitado hacer públicos sus conflictos de interés al no tener que pasar por el Senado para confirmar su cargo.
El medio estadounidense cita a tres fuentes anónimas cercanas a Trump y relaciona la decisión con la contundente derrota en las elecciones al Tribunal Supremo de Wisconsin del juez al que el consejero delegado de Tesla había apoyado con donaciones de 25 millones de dólares y sorteando cheques de un millón entre sus votantes. El magnate, que impulsó la candidatura de Trump en noviembre, podría haberse vuelto un lastre político para la Administración.
Pero la decisión, meditada desde antes, también llega después de enfrentamientos entre varios miembros del gabinete y Musk, que en los últimos dos meses ha ordenado recortes en agencias de todos los departamentos, en muchas ocasiones sin un plan, ni la confirmación de los secretarios de quienes dependen dichos organismos. Un ejemplo de ello es el desmantelamiento de USAID, que provocó, según informaron varios medios, una riña con el secretario de Estado Marco Rubio en una reunión de gabinete el mes pasado.
Los demócratas han encontrado en Musk un antagonista, el villano perfecto para movilizar a sus bases, y eso pone en peligro la mayoría de los republicanos en las dos cámaras del Congreso, que se someterá a votación de nuevo el año que viene. También el activismo ha puesto en él la diana, como demuestran los carteles alzados en las protestas y el vandalismo contra los coches y concesionarios de Tesla, que la Administración ya investiga como actos terroristas.
Trump ha defendido públicamente sus recortes de programas sociales y despidos masivos de funcionarios, una función que desde el día que creó el DOGE dijo que tendría fecha de caducidad. Pero, según informa Politico, el presidente podría avanzar esa fecha, prevista inicialmente para este verano, y apartarlo de su cargo “en las próximas semanas”.
La decisión habría sido tomada entre ambos hombres. Las controversias de Musk, incluido su saludo nazi el día de la investidura de Trump y su apoyo a la extrema derecha europea, han desplomado las ventas de Tesla, así como su valor en bolsa. Poco después de conocerse la noticia, las acciones de la compañía de coches eléctricos han rebotado al alza.
Musk no solo ha encontrado oposición entre los demócratas, también en el sector nacional populista del trumpismo. El exasesor de Trump Steve Bannon, uno de los ideólogos de la corriente Make America Great Again, lo ha criticado desde el día que llegó a la Administración.
En su podcast War Room, le declaró abiertamente la guerra al magnate: “Me propuse como algo personal acabar con él. Antes, estaba dispuesto a tolerarlo porque ponía dinero; ya no”, señaló poco antes de la investidura de Trump. En esa ocasión, Bannon criticó la defensa que hizo Musk de los visados H-1B, para trabajadores cualificados, de los que dependen las tecnológicas para atraer a fuerza laboral barata y competente del extranjero.
Los comentarios de Musk defendiendo esos visados se consideró una traición al espíritu del movimiento, que busca priorizar el trabajo estadounidense. Bannon denunció a los “oligarcas de las grandes tecnológicas” y dijo que el programa de visados a trabajadores cualificados es una “total y completa estafa” que supone una “amenaza para la civilización occidental”. Desde esa disputa, en la que tachó a Musk de ser “un tipo verdaderamente malvado”, Bannon y otros miembros de la ultraderecha, como la activista Laura Loomer, no han escondido su rechazo al magnate.
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04-02-25 victor
| WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday revised President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on derivative aluminum products to include all beer and empty aluminum can imports. |
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04-02-25 victor
pana, tech is quickly breaking our way of life, no mercy.
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i am a bit slow. how is tech BREAKING our way of life?
you mean ai's impact on the job mkt?
and you think that breaks our way of life?
as some jobs go away, new industries should flourish.
are you saying that many people will find themselves with no jobs?
leading to protests, social unrest, people voting for extremists, etc?
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04-02-25 spal
spal, of course, that's how it should be across the usa, by default..
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Certainly agree. And wanted to make the point that I think people looked at this question on its merits. |
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04-02-25 spal
To slow AI progress and shield creative jobs, consider these practical steps:
😀 Aggressive Data Privacy Overhaul
Enact a US law tougher than GDPR: opt-in consent for AI data use, ban secondary data repurposing, and impose steep fines. This would limit AI’s data supply, slowing development and keeping it less competitive with human work.
Job Benefit: AI struggles to replace writers or artists, preserving demand.
😁 Copyright Lockdown
Scrap fair use for AI training, require licenses for copyrighted material, and mandate attribution with compensation. Costs and legal risks would rise, narrowing AI’s capabilities.
Job Benefit: Creators gain licensing revenue; AI content becomes less viable.
😆 Output Regulation
Label AI-generated content and restrict its commercial use (e.g., no AI articles without human oversight). Set quality thresholds for legal sale. This curbs AI scalability and deployment.
Job Benefit: Human oversight roles grow; AI can’t flood markets cheaply.
🤣 Tax and Incentive Shifts
Tax large-scale AI development heavily, redirecting funds to subsidize creative jobs (e.g., artist grants). Offer tax breaks for human labor over automation. This slows AI investment while supporting human industries.
Job Benefit: Creative professions stabilize against AI pressure.
😊 International Coordination
Secure a global treaty with the US, EU, and China to align on restrictions, preventing offshoring to lax regions. This ensures consistent AI constraints worldwide.
Job Benefit: Jobs stay protected globally, avoiding a race to the bottom.
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All good ideas.
Trump might not understand this. |
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04-02-25 spal
One of things I suspect is that Trump overly favors big tech. They have already won the game, but now it is all about ego, At the inauguration, tech overlords filled the front row - this was the sign that Trump strokes his own ego by thinking that he is as "good" as these guys. The game for all of them is now simply power. Their worst nightmare is to be no longer be trillionaires, merely billionaires. Thus they need Trump to push off antitrust and to ensure free access to data so that they can repackage it and sell it back to us. The extent to which he panders to them is the danger. He is driven by his need to feel as big as these guys and to impress them. That is the problem here.
Better would be antitrust laws and tighter laws on data privacy.
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04-02-25 panasonic
Spal, Vic..tech is quickly breaking our way of life, no mercy.
Political class under severe pressure and only thing we see is actions and reactions, a pinball machine.
Sadly people is siding with extremes to deal with what is inevitable.
Society will flood of info, less fine jobs and lots of spare time to "think". |
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04-02-25 spal
| We'll see, but it is hard to get past the extent to which at heart he is a grifter. I like immigration, but don't like it uncontrolled. I disliked mindless "wokeness", but support diversity of behavior and thought. I agree with a hard review on government activity, but believe in governance. I agree with having allies pay their share of the way, but not at the expense of these alliance etc. I am not doctrinaire and worry when I see acolytes running around. So some of it I like and some of it concerns me. |
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04-02-25 victor
| spal, why? what has changed? it's only been a few months. |
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04-02-25 spal
| Vic - yes and it may have been a mistake. |
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04-02-25 Merlino
| “Liberation Day”: Nothing matters more today than the tariff announcement this afternoon (expected at 4:00 p.m. ET), which promises to wreak havoc on this $33 trillion beast called global cross-border trade. While this is now being dubbed as an effort to “Make America Wealthy Again,” the cost for the world at large will be $1.4 trillion of lost GDP. Nobody wins in a trade war — wash, rinse, repeat. The United States wins but in a race to the bottom (European Defense stocks obviously are an exception)... |
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04-02-25 victor
spal, let me ask you a question:
did you vote for dt?
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04-02-25 ruspan
victor:"Alemania despliega sus primeras tropas de combate en el exterior desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial
El Gobierno alemán se ha comprometido a estacionar permanentemente en Lituania una unidad de combate compuesta por 5.000 soldados"
BS media :-)
German military troops were stationed in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021, making it the Bundeswehr’s largest foreign deployment to date in terms of cost and soldiers involved. |
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04-02-25 victor
| spal, of course, that's how it should be across the usa, by default.. |
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04-02-25 spal
| I am asking you. What do you think? Yes or no. Straight question Vic. |
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04-02-25 victor
spal, ask that to some californians? :-))
https://calmatters.digitaldemocracy.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1174
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04-02-25 spal
| Vic - does it make sense to properly identify yourself prior to voting? |
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04-02-25 victor
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04-02-25 spal
| Again no - I voted for it also. People are sensible first in Wisconsin. Political second. |
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04-02-25 victor
spal, but WI voted to pass the voter id, which dt wanted
so it wasn't entirely a FU to dt, i think |
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04-02-25 victor
| savo, i saw it, but i think it's just his usual exaggeration |
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04-02-25 spal
| Big FU from Wisconsin today ... happy to have helped. |
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04-02-25 savo
victor... they want to deport Jaime Bayly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jab9kI26q8 |
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04-02-25 victor
| looks like the gop won the 2 fl house seats, but lost wisconsin's supreme court seat. |
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04-02-25 victor
savo, it's obviously bad looking for the us..
//
Costa Rican former President Oscar Arias says US revoked his visa
SAN JOSE, April 1 (Reuters) - Former Costa Rican President and Nobel Prize winner Oscar Arias said on Tuesday that the U.S. had revoked his visa to enter the country, weeks after he criticized U.S. President Donald Trump on social media saying he was behaving like "a Roman emperor."
Arias, 84, was president between 1986 and 1990 and again between 2006 and 2010. A self-declared pacifist, he won the 1987 Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering peace during the Central American conflicts of the 1980s.
Arias also promoted a free trade agreement with the U.S. during his last term and in 2007 established diplomatic ties with China.
"I received an email from the U.S. government informing me that they have suspended the visa I have in my passport. The communication was very terse, it does not give reasons. One could have conjectures," Arias told reporters outside his home, without elaborating on his suspicions.
In February, Arias had on social media accused the current government of President Rodrigo Chaves of giving in to U.S. pressure, as the U.S. has sought to oppose China's influence in the region and deported migrants from third countries into Central America.
"It has never been easy for a small country to disagree with the U.S. government, and even less so, when its president behaves like a Roman emperor, telling the rest of the world what to do," he said on social media in February.
His statements came after the U.S. withdrew visas from three Costa Rican lawmakers who opposed Chaves' decision to exclude Chinese firms from participating in the development of 5G in the country, following U.S. demands. On Tuesday, another opposition lawmaker was also stripped of her U.S. visa.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had in early February visited Costa Rica and offered to help Chaves "punish" Costa Rican officials who collaborate with "foreign actors who pose a threat to the country's cybersecurity."
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